'Peak Oil and Transition 'Peak Oil and Transition TownsTowns from Kinsale to Totnes from Kinsale to Totnes
and Beyond?'and Beyond?'
Rob HopkinsRob Hopkins
Transition Town Totnes * Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University. University.
The Petroleum Interval The Petroleum Interval
Peak Oil.Peak Oil.
Discovery peaked 40 years agoDiscovery peaked 40 years ago
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gb
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Past
Future
Production
Past afterExxon-Mobil3yr moving average
US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in 19701930, Production in 1970
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5
10
15
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30
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Dis
cove
ry G
b
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Pro
du
ctio
n k
b/d
Peak to Peak - 40 years
Peak Discovery
The North SeaThe North Sea
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2
4
6
8
10
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Dis
cove
ry G
b
0
1000
2000
3000
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5000
6000
7000
Pro
du
ctio
n k
b/d
Peak to Peak - 27 years
RussiaRussia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Dis
cove
ry G
b
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Pro
du
ctio
n k
b/d
Peak to Peak ~ 40 yearsFall of Soviets
0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Pro
duc
tion
, Gb
oe/a
Non-con Gas
Gas
NGLs
Polar Oil
Deep Water
Heavy
Regular
Production peaks follow discovery.Production peaks follow discovery. ((You have to find it before you can produce it).You have to find it before you can produce it).
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil
Chris Skrebowski Chris Skrebowski Petroleum ReviewPetroleum Review
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Opec
Non-Opec
Total
Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves…Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves…
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
World Production World Production Stalls.Stalls.
No Spare Saudi Capacity…No Spare Saudi Capacity…
Source - EIA
And also…And also…
Oil Prices are Oil Prices are rising and are rising and are very volatile very volatile
Geopolitical and Geopolitical and climate risksclimate risks
Falling discoveryFalling discovery
Gas prices…Gas prices…
Indigenous Production Indigenous Production
Declines.Declines.
Source: DTI Digest of UK Energy Statistics
The Widening GapThe Widening Gap
Source: DTI
Peak Gas?Peak Gas?
Source:UK Energy Review 2006
Exxon MobilExxon Mobil
4 New Saudi Arabias!
Who Said This?Who Said This?
““A serious demand/supply discontinuity A serious demand/supply discontinuity could lead to worldwide economic could lead to worldwide economic chaos”.chaos”.
US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves.Reserves.
We’re not good at recognising distant We’re not good at recognising distant threats. Even if their probability is threats. Even if their probability is 100%, society ignoring this is like 100%, society ignoring this is like people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius”.people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius”.
James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of the CIA. the CIA.
When?When?
The Hirsch ReportThe Hirsch Report
““......the peaking of world oil production presents the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated they must be initiated more than a decademore than a decade in in advance of peakingadvance of peaking” (emphasis added) ” (emphasis added)
(Hirsch 2005).(Hirsch 2005).
Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil AwarenessAwareness (Post Petroleum Stress (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder)Disorder)
Common Symptoms Include;•Clammy Palms / Nausea
•Mild Palpitations
•A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality
•An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions
•Fear
•Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism.
•Exuberant Optimism.
•“I Always Told You So” Syndrome.
Indu
stria
l As
cent
(Mod
erni
sm)
Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource Use Population Pollution Pollution
ClimaxClimax(post-modern (post-modern
cultural chaos)cultural chaos)
Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech Stability
Earth stewardship
Atlantis
Great Grand Great Grand ChildrenChildren
AgricultureAgriculture10.000yrs BP10.000yrs BP
Industrial Industrial RevolutionRevolution
Baby BoomBaby Boom Old GrowthOld GrowthForest Forest
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Historical Time Future Time
Creative Descent
Creative Descent
( (Permaculture)
Visioning a World Beyond Oil.Visioning a World Beyond Oil.
What would a post What would a post carbon world look like?carbon world look like?
1930’s Visions of America’s Future
We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….
One Possible vision…One Possible vision…
Convergence of ChallengesConvergence of Challenges
Peak OilPeak Oil Climate ChangeClimate Change Our dependence Our dependence
on Chinaon China Our crumbling Our crumbling
social capitalsocial capital
Vehicle Transport Vehicle Transport – are – are we asking the right questions?we asking the right questions?
Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land.
UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land.
800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.
Hydrogen?Hydrogen?
Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate;would necessitate;
67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations a solar array covering every inch of a solar array covering every inch of
Norfolk and Derbyshire combinedNorfolk and Derbyshire combined or a wind farm bigger than the entire or a wind farm bigger than the entire
southwest region of England.southwest region of England.
From “The Last Oil Shock by David StrahanFrom “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan
RelocalisationRelocalisation
“…“…localisation localisation stands, at best, at stands, at best, at the limits of the limits of practical possibility, practical possibility, but it has the but it has the decisive argument decisive argument in its favour that in its favour that there will be no there will be no alternative”alternative”
David FlemingDavid Fleming
UK Food Self Reliance.UK Food Self Reliance.
"National food security is neither necessary nor is it desirable."
DEFRA 2003.
Food - Urban Gardens in Food - Urban Gardens in CubaCubaDowntown HavanaDowntown Havana
The Modernized Agrarian - The Modernized Agrarian - CubaCuba
Oxen Replaced TractorsOxen Replaced Tractors
Rooftop Gardening in Rooftop Gardening in HavanaHavana
Your town in 2012?Your town in 2012?
Edible roofsEdible roofs
Adding the Trees…Adding the Trees…
Building - The Challenge of Building - The Challenge of Peak Oil demands…Peak Oil demands…
Buildings designed to use Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space low/zero energy for space heatingheating
Increased use of local Increased use of local materialsmaterials
New Local Economies New Local Economies An increasing resource base An increasing resource base
of local renewable materials of local renewable materials Integration of renewable Integration of renewable
energyenergy The Great ReskillingThe Great Reskilling
Creating New Local EconomiesCreating New Local Economies
Local TimberLocal Timber New (?!) New (?!)
construction construction techniques to use techniques to use the timber the timber availableavailable
Helps with Helps with management of management of local woodlandslocal woodlands
Ben Law’s house, Sussex
Creating New Local EconomiesCreating New Local Economies
Cordwood Building
Using round timber in an innovative and promising way
Cordwood and Cob amphitheatreKinsale, Co. Cork
Creating New Local EconomiesCreating New Local Economies
Hemp and Lime•Can be used to build whole houses
•Very high insulation levels
•Suffolk Housing Society
Hemp also makes a beautiful insulating plaster…
The Great ReskillingThe Great Reskilling
Natural Retrofits…?Natural Retrofits…?
The Story of the Kinsale The Story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action PlanEnergy Descent Action Plan
Available to download at
www.transitionculture.org
Kinsale Further Kinsale Further Education College.Education College.
Step 1. Awareness RaisingStep 1. Awareness Raising
Talks, End of Suburbia Talks, End of Suburbia screenings… screenings…
Step 2. Open Space Step 2. Open Space Community Think TankCommunity Think Tank
Step 3. Engaging Existing Step 3. Engaging Existing Practioners.Practioners.
Step 4. Visioning and Backcasting.
Action Plan – layout.Action Plan – layout.
•Title (food, waste, etc…)
•The Present
•The Vision
•Practical Steps 2005 – 2021
•Resources
Some Suggestions from Some Suggestions from the Kinsale EDAP…the Kinsale EDAP…
A Natural Health PartnershipA Natural Health Partnership Local economyLocal economy Research on local building Research on local building
materialsmaterials Permaculture courses in Permaculture courses in
schoolsschools Slow Food TownSlow Food Town Looking beyond TourismLooking beyond Tourism Energy IndependenceEnergy Independence
December ‘05 in Kinsale…December ‘05 in Kinsale…
Notice of Motion
This council supports the efforts of the not-for-profit company “Transition Design” in its initiative to act as “Process Leaders” in
Kinsale’s transition to a lower energy future and in developing the concept of a “Transition Town” i.e. a town making the transition from fossil-fuel dependency to a state of energy independence.
Are We Addicted to Are We Addicted to Oil?Oil?
Transition Transition Town Town
TotnesTotnes
The Next Step…
Awareness Raising…Awareness Raising…Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06
The Official Unleashing…The Official Unleashing…September ‘06September ‘06
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Open Space Days.Open Space Days.Food, Energy, Housing. Food, Energy, Housing.
Oral History Oral History Interviews..Interviews..
Learning from Totnes Past.Learning from Totnes Past.1930’s…1930’s…
© Totnes Image Bank
George Heath.George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer.A Powerdown Pioneer.
© Totnes Image Bank
Visiting Speakers…Visiting Speakers…Sept – Dec ’06.Sept – Dec ’06.
Bob Flowerdew David Fleming
Helena Norberg-HodgeRichard Heinberg
Working with Working with Business.Business.
December ’06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool University
A pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses.
Skilling Up for Skilling Up for Powerdown.Powerdown.A 10 Week Evening Class.A 10 Week Evening Class.
Covers;
Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…
Transition Town TotnesTransition Town TotnesSubgroups….Subgroups….
Up and RunningUp and RunningHeart and Soul – the psychology Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / of change / Medicine and Health / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local GovernmentLiaison with Local Government
In formation;In formation;Education, Housing.Education, Housing.
Outcomes so Far…Outcomes so Far…(after 4 months).(after 4 months).
Solar Water Heater Solar Water Heater Challenge.Challenge.
Local Food Directory Local Food Directory The Totnes Renewable The Totnes Renewable
Energy Supply Company Energy Supply Company (TRESCO)(TRESCO)
World Café afternoon for World Café afternoon for Council representativesCouncil representatives
‘‘Seedy Sunday’Seedy Sunday’ Workshop with estate Workshop with estate
landowners.landowners. Lending Library.Lending Library.
The Totnes Pound.The Totnes Pound.
““Totnes, the Nut Tree Totnes, the Nut Tree
Capital of Britain”.Capital of Britain”.
Other Transition Towns…Other Transition Towns…an idea goes viral…an idea goes viral…
Transition Penwith.Transition Penwith. LewesLewes StroudStroud MoretonhampsteadMoretonhampstead FalmouthFalmouth LampeterLampeter BristolBristol
““The time is right to look at what The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration a post-oil economy - a declaration less of ‘oil independence’ and less of ‘oil independence’ and more the end of oil dependence.”more the end of oil dependence.”
David Milliband. David Milliband.
"with proper leadership, I "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." exhilarated by the challenge."
Rep. Roscoe BartlettRep. Roscoe Bartlett
www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitionculture.org
www.transitiontowns.org/Totneswww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes
