'Peak Oil and Transition Towns’ Falmouth. 11 th May 2007. Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

'Peak Oil and Transition TownsFalmouth. 11th May 2007. Rob HopkinsTransition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

The Petroleum Interval

Peak Oil.

Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobilPast afterExxon-Mobil3yr moving average

US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in 1970Peak to Peak - 40 yearsPeak Discovery

The North SeaPeak to Peak - 27 years

RussiaPeak to Peak ~ 40 yearsFall of Soviets

Production peaks follow discovery. (You have to find it before you can produce it).Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

Exaggerated OPEC Oil ReservesSource: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

World Production Stalls.

No Spare Saudi CapacitySource: US EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3, Joint Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 17 (or similar) on OPEC Supply, Oil and Gas Journal, and OPEC for quotas.

Gas prices

The Widening GapSource: DTI

Peak Gas?Source:UK Energy Review 2006

Exxon Mobil4 New Saudi Arabias!

Who Said This?A serious demand/supply discontinuity could lead to worldwide economic chaos.US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves.Were not good at recognising distant threats. Even if their probability is 100%, society ignoring this is like people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius.James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of the CIA.

When?

The Hirsch Report...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005).

Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder)Common Symptoms Include;Clammy Palms / NauseaMild Palpitations A Sense of Bewilderment and UnrealityAn Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible SolutionsFearOutbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. Exuberant Optimism.I Always Told You So Syndrome.

Industrial Ascent (Modernism) Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution Climax(post-modern cultural chaos)Techno-FantasyGreen-Tech StabilityEarth stewardshipAtlantisGreat Grand ChildrenAgriculture10.000yrs BPIndustrial RevolutionBaby BoomOld GrowthForest Pre-industrial sustainable cultureHistorical TimeFuture TimeCreative Descent (Permaculture)

Visioning a World Beyond Oil.What would a post carbon world look like?

1930s Visions of Americas Future

We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want.

One Possible vision

Convergence of ChallengesPeak OilClimate ChangeOur dependence on ChinaOur crumbling social capital

Vehicle Transport are we asking the right questions?Running the UKs cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land. UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land. 800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

Hydrogen?Running the UKs cars on hydrogen would necessitate;67 Sizewell B nuclear power stationsa solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combinedor a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England.

From The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

Relocalisationlocalisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternativeDavid Fleming

UK Food Self Reliance."National food security is neither necessary nor is it desirable." DEFRA 2003.

Food - Urban Gardens in CubaDowntown Havana

The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba

Oxen Replaced Tractors

Rooftop Gardening in Havana

Falmouth in 2012?

Edible roofs

Adding the Trees

Building - The Challenge of Peak Oil demands

Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heatingIncreased use of local materialsNew Local Economies An increasing resource base of local renewable materials Integration of renewable energyThe Great Reskilling

Creating New Local EconomiesLocal TimberNew (?!) construction techniques to use the timber availableHelps with management of local woodlandsBen Laws house, Sussex

Creating New Local EconomiesCordwood BuildingUsing round timber in an innovative and promising wayCordwood and Cob amphitheatreKinsale, Co. Cork

Creating New Local EconomiesHemp and LimeCan be used to build whole housesVery high insulation levelsSuffolk Housing SocietyHemp also makes a beautiful insulating plaster

The Great Reskilling

Natural Retrofits?

The Story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action PlanAvailable to download at www.transitionculture.org

Kinsale Further Education College.

Step 1. Awareness Raising Talks, End of Suburbia screenings

Step 2. Open Space Community Think Tank

Step 3. Engaging Existing Practioners.Step 4. Visioning and Backcasting.

Action Plan layout.Title (food, waste, etc)The PresentThe VisionPractical Steps 2005 2021Resources

Some Suggestions from the Kinsale EDAPA Natural Health PartnershipLocal economyResearch on local building materialsPermaculture courses in schoolsSlow Food TownLooking beyond TourismEnergy Independence

December 05 in KinsaleNotice of Motion

This council supports the efforts of the not-for-profit company Transition Design in its initiative to act as Process Leaders in Kinsales transition to a lower energy future and in developing the concept of a Transition Town i.e. a town making the transition from fossil-fuel dependency to a state of energy independence.

Lessons From KinsaleAvoid Them and Us. Create a Sense That Something is Happening.Create a Vision of an Abundant Future.

Transition Town TotnesThe Next Step

Awareness RaisingSept 05 Sept 06

The Official UnleashingSeptember 06Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories. Dr Chris Johnstone TTT Unleashing Sept 06.

Open Space Days.Food, Energy, Housing, Psychology of Change, Economics, Arts.

Oral History Interviews..

Learning from Totnes Past.1930s Totnes Image Bank

George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer. Totnes Image Bank

Totnes Image Bank

Visiting SpeakersSept Dec 06.Bob Flowerdew David FlemingHelena Norberg-HodgeRichard Heinberg

Working with Business.December 06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool UniversityA pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses.

Skilling Up for Powerdown.A 10 Week Evening Class.Covers; Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning

Transition Town TotnesSubgroups.Up and Running

Heart and Soul the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government

In formation;

Education, Housing.

Outcomes so Far(after 7 months). Solar Water Heater Challenge.Local Food Directory The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO)World Caf afternoon for Council representativesSeedy SundayWorkshop with estate landowners.Lending Library.

The Totnes Pound.

Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain.

What Adds ResilienceLocal CompostingProductive Tree PlantingsLocal Building Materials

Local Investment MechanismsLocal Currencies

What DoesntCentralised RecyclingOrnamental Tree PlantingsImported green building materialsCarbon OffsettingEthical Investment

Transition Townsan idea goes viralIn discussion Barnet Bovey Tracey Brighton Chalford Edinburgh Haringey Leamington Spa Leeds Liverpool London Monmouth North Pembrokeshire Nottingham Shapwick

ExistingBristol Brixton Falmouth Forest Row Glastonbury Ivybridge Kinsale Lewes Mayfield Moretonhampstead Ottery St Mary Penwith Stroud Totnes

The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of oil independence and more the end of oil dependence.David Milliband.

"with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." Rep. Roscoe Bartlett

www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes

This shows the world situation. It is the most important slide I can show you.Exxon deserves huge credit for publishing it with good data and revisions properly backdated to discovery. World discovery has been falling relentlessly for 40 years. There is no good reason to expect the trend to change direction, so we can extrapolate to show what is yet-to-find, shown in green. Consumption, shown in black, exceeded discovery in 1981, and the gap is widening. Take a good look : it says it all.The green bars are discovery and the red line is production.This shows the US-Lower 48, which is the worlds most mature area.Discovery peaked in 1930, giving the corresponding peak of production 40 years later - in 1970. This is a relatively long time-lapse, because technology was primitive in those early days. Also, the United States had a unique environment with the landowner owning the mineral rights, meaning there were many small operators.Production has been in relentless decline for 35 years. Nothing can change it.It explains why the United States is so desperate to secure access foreign oil- if necessary by military means.

Some of the worlds first oil wells were drilled in the 19th Century on the shores of the Caspian, which was then Russian territory. Exploration was curtailed during and between the two world wars, but expanded rapidly during the 1950s when most of the productive basins and the giant fields within them were found. Being free of market pressures, the Soviet explorers were able to conduct high quality scientific exploration. They were the pioneers in the critical subject of geochemistry. Discovery peaked around 1960. Production rose to a peak in 1987, when some fields being over-produced under the last days of the Soviet regime. It then slumped before recovering as new private Russian companies stepped in. In part, they were making good what would have already been produced but for disruption caused by the fall of the Soviets. But now, the Government is regaining control and will try to conserve its resources. Production is expected to grow only slowly, if at all, to a second peak in the next few years. Russias consumption is still relatively low at about 2.5 Mb/d. At this level, it can remain a net exporter for about 30 years, giving it great geopolitical strength. Some of the worlds first oil wells were drilled in the 19th Century on the shores of the Caspian, which was then Russian territory. Exploration was curtailed during and between the two world wars, but expanded rapidly during the 1950s when most of the productive basins and the giant fields within them were found. Being free of market pressures, the Soviet explorers were able to conduct high quality scientific exploration. They were the pioneers in the critical subject of geochemistry. Discovery peaked around 1960. Production rose to a peak in 1987, when some fields being over-produced under the last days of the Soviet regime. It then slumped before recovering as new private Russian companies stepped in. In part, they were making good what would have already been produced but for disruption caused by the fall of the Soviets. But now, the Government is regaining control and will try to conserve its resources. Production is expected to grow only slowly, if at all, to a second peak in the next few years. Russias consumption is still relatively low at about 2.5 Mb/d. At this level, it can remain a net exporter for about 30 years, giving it great geopolitical strength. Of the 65 largest oil producing nations 54 are past their peak..Of the 18 largest fields, 12 are in decline, 5 have some potential and 1 is undevelopedThe 120 largest fields give 50% of total70% of production from fields 30+ years oldFew large recent discoveriesWere dependent on the oil equivalent of Old men and young boys