'Peak Oil and Transition Towns from Kinsale to Totnes and Beyond?' Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

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'Peak Oil and Transition Towns from Kinsale to Totnes and Beyond?' Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University. Slide 2 The Petroleum Interval Slide 3 Peak Oil. Slide 4 Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average Slide 5 US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in 1970 Peak to Peak - 40 years Peak Discovery Slide 6 The North Sea Peak to Peak - 27 years Slide 7 Russia Peak to Peak ~ 40 years Fall of Soviets Slide 8 Production peaks follow discovery. ( You have to find it before you can produce it). Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil Slide 9 Chris Skrebowski Petroleum Review Slide 10 Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Slide 11 World Production Stalls. Slide 12 No Spare Saudi Capacity Source - EIA Slide 13 And also Oil Prices are rising and are very volatile Oil Prices are rising and are very volatile Geopolitical and climate risks Geopolitical and climate risks Falling discovery Falling discovery Slide 14 Gas prices Slide 15 Indigenous Production Declines. Source: DTI Digest of UK Energy Statistics Slide 16 The Widening Gap Source: DTI Slide 17 Peak Gas? Source: UK Energy Review 2006 Slide 18 Slide 19 Exxon Mobil 4 New Saudi Arabias! Slide 20 Slide 21 Who Said This? A serious demand/supply discontinuity could lead to worldwide economic chaos. US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves. Were not good at recognising distant threats. Even if their probability is 100%, society ignoring this is like people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius. James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of the CIA. Slide 22 When? Slide 23 The Hirsch Report ...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005). Slide 24 Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder) Common Symptoms Include; Clammy Palms / Nausea Mild Palpitations A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions Fear Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. Exuberant Optimism. I Always Told You So Syndrome. Slide 25 Industrial Ascent (Modernism) Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution PollutionClimax (post-modern cultural chaos) Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Atlantis Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP IndustrialRevolution Baby Boom Old Growth Forest Pre-industrial sustainable culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent ( Creative Descent (Permaculture) Slide 26 Visioning a World Beyond Oil. What would a post carbon world look like? What would a post carbon world look like? Slide 27 1930s Visions of Americas Future Slide 28 Slide 29 We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want. Slide 30 One Possible vision Slide 31 Convergence of Challenges Peak Oil Peak Oil Climate Change Climate Change Our dependence on China Our dependence on China Our crumbling social capital Our crumbling social capital Slide 32 Vehicle Transport are we asking the right questions? Running the UKs cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land. UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land. 800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin. Slide 33 Hydrogen? Running the UKs cars on hydrogen would necessitate; 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. From The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan Slide 34 Relocalisation localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative David Fleming Slide 35 UK Food Self Reliance. "National food security is neither necessary nor is it desirable." DEFRA 2003. Slide 36 Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana Slide 37 The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba Slide 38 Oxen Replaced Tractors Slide 39 Rooftop Gardening in Havana Slide 40 Your town in 2012? Slide 41 Edible roofs Slide 42 Adding the Trees Slide 43 Building - The Challenge of Peak Oil demands Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heating Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heating Increased use of local materials Increased use of local materials New Local Economies New Local Economies An increasing resource base of local renewable materials An increasing resource base of local renewable materials Integration of renewable energy Integration of renewable energy The Great Reskilling The Great Reskilling Slide 44 Creating New Local Economies Local Timber Local Timber New (?!) construction techniques to use the timber available New (?!) construction techniques to use the timber available Helps with management of local woodlands Helps with management of local woodlands Ben Laws house, Sussex Slide 45 Creating New Local Economies Cordwood Building Using round timber in an innovative and promising way Cordwood and Cob amphitheatre Kinsale, Co. Cork Slide 46 Slide 47 Creating New Local Economies Hemp and Lime Can be used to build whole houses Very high insulation levels Suffolk Housing Society Hemp also makes a beautiful insulating plaster Slide 48 The Great Reskilling Slide 49 Natural Retrofits? Slide 50 The Story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan Available to download at www.transitionculture.org Slide 51 Kinsale Further Education College. Slide 52 Step 1. Awareness Raising Talks, End of Suburbia screenings Talks, End of Suburbia screenings Slide 53 Step 2. Open Space Community Think Tank Slide 54 Step 3. Engaging Existing Practioners. Step 4. Visioning and Backcasting. Slide 55 Action Plan layout. Title (food, waste, etc) The Present The Vision Practical Steps 2005 2021 Resources Slide 56 Some Suggestions from the Kinsale EDAP A Natural Health Partnership A Natural Health Partnership Local economy Local economy Research on local building materials Research on local building materials Permaculture courses in schools Permaculture courses in schools Slow Food Town Slow Food Town Looking beyond Tourism Looking beyond Tourism Energy Independence Energy Independence Slide 57 December 05 in Kinsale Notice of Motion This council supports the efforts of the not-for-profit company Transition Design in its initiative to act as Process Leaders in Kinsales transition to a lower energy future and in developing the concept of a Transition Town i.e. a town making the transition from fossil-fuel dependency to a state of energy independence. Slide 58 Are We Addicted to Oil? Slide 59 Transition Town Totnes The Next Step Slide 60 Awareness Raising Sept 05 Sept 06 Slide 61 The Official Unleashing September 06 Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories. Dr Chris Johnstone TTT Unleashing Sept 06. Slide 62 Open Space Days. Food, Energy, Housing. Slide 63 Oral History Interviews.. Slide 64 Learning from Totnes Past. 1930s Totnes Image Bank Slide 65 George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. Totnes Image Bank Slide 66 Visiting Speakers Sept Dec 06. Bob Flowerdew David Fleming Helena Norberg-HodgeRichard Heinberg Slide 67 Working with Business. December 06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool University A pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses. Slide 68 Skilling Up for Powerdown. A 10 Week Evening Class. Covers; Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning Slide 69 Transition Town Totnes Subgroups. Up and Running Heart and Soul the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government In formation; Education, Housing. Slide 70 Outcomes so Far (after 4 months). Solar Water Heater Challenge. Solar Water Heater Challenge. Local Food Directory Local Food Directory The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) World Caf afternoon for Council representatives World Caf afternoon for Council representatives Seedy Sunday Seedy Sunday Workshop with estate landowners. Workshop with estate landowners. Lending Library. Lending Library. Slide 71 The Totnes Pound. Slide 72 Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain. Slide 73 Other Transition Towns an idea goes viral Transition Penwith. Transition Penwith. Lewes Lewes Stroud Stroud Moretonhampstead Moretonhampstead Falmouth Falmouth Lampeter Lampeter Bristol Bristol Slide 74 The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of oil independence and more the end of oil dependence. The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of oil independence and more the end of oil dependence. David Milliband. Slide 75 "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." Rep. Roscoe Bartlett Slide 76 www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes