CNRFCCNRFCOperational Flood Operational Flood
ForecastingForecasting
Pete FickenscherHydrologist
California-Nevada River Forecast CenterNational Weather Service
October 18, 2006
CNRFC OperationsCNRFC Operations 11 Weather offices11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast 87 Flood Forecast
PointsPoints Partners: Calif. DWRPartners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15
50 Reservoir Inflow 50 Reservoir Inflow PointsPoints Partners: COE & BURECPartners: COE & BUREC Season: year-roundSeason: year-round
50 Water Supply 50 Water Supply PointsPoints Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1
CNRFC StaffCNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC)Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) Development and Operations Hydrologist Development and Operations Hydrologist
(DOH)(DOH) 4 Senior Hydrologists4 Senior Hydrologists 3 Hydrologists3 Hydrologists 1 Senior HAS Forecasters1 Senior HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters2 HAS Forecasters Administrative AssistantAdministrative Assistant
CNRFC Hydrologic CNRFC Hydrologic ProductsProducts
Flash Flood Guidance
Flood Forecast Guidance
Reservoir Inflow Forecasts
Spring Snow Melt
Forecasts
Water Supply Volume
Short Range … … … … … … Long Range
Operational Hydrologic Operational Hydrologic ModelsModels
NWSRFS StructureNWSRFS Structure
ESP
Operational Forecast System
Calibration
System
Primary NWSRFS ModelsPrimary NWSRFS Models
Rain-Snow Elevation Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting
(SAC-SMA)(SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models Reservoir Models River Routing Models River Routing Models
NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsSNOW-17SNOW-17
Conceptual Model of Physical ProcessesConceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of SnowModels a Column of Snow
- Accumulation of Snow Cover- Accumulation of Snow Cover- Surface Energy Exchange- Surface Energy Exchange- Snow Cover ‘Ripening’- Snow Cover ‘Ripening’- Ground Heat Exchange- Ground Heat Exchange- Transmission of Liquid Water- Transmission of Liquid Water
Input = Air Temperature & Precip.Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal
Extent of SnowExtent of Snow
NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsSAC-SMASAC-SMA
Conceptual Model of the Land Phase Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycleof the Hydrologic Cycle
Input = Rain + Melt, Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow CoverCover
Output = Inflow to the channel Output = Inflow to the channel systemsystem
NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS Models
Actual Inflow (FOLC1)
Observed (w): hourly data
Simulated (p): 6-hourly
(with reservoir outflows)
NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsReservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)
Operational Hydrologic Operational Hydrologic ModelsModels
NWSRFS StructureNWSRFS Structure
ESP
Operational Forecast System
Calibration System
Operational Flood Operational Flood ForecastingForecasting
HH
AA
SS
DataDataSystemsSystems
precip/temp/flow
RiverRiverForecastForecastSystemSystem
QPF
ForecastTemp
HydrologistHydrologist
Soil, snow & routing parameters
hydrologicexpertise
River ForecastRiver ForecastGuidanceGuidance
Rain/Snow Elevations
Model Model CalibrationCalibration
Operational Flood Operational Flood ForecastingForecasting
DataDataSystemsSystems
HydrologistHydrologist
River ForecastRiver ForecastGuidanceGuidance
Model Model CalibrationCalibration
Precipitation Data Quality Control
Gage Catch IssuesGage Catch Issues
Wind Wind SnowSnow Instrumentation (double tipping)Instrumentation (double tipping) Gage location (vegetation, topography…)Gage location (vegetation, topography…) VandalismVandalism
River and Reservoir Data River and Reservoir Data QCQC
Reservoir InflowReservoir InflowOutflow and StorageOutflow and Storage
HourlyHourlyStage & StreamflowStage & Streamflow
AnticipatedAnticipatedReservoir OutflowReservoir Outflow
Automated Automated FilteringFiltering
& & Manual QCManual QC
Real-time ForecastingReal-time Forecasting
Simulated Flow
Observed Flow Data
San Joaquin River at Newman
Operational Flood Operational Flood ForecastingForecasting
DataDataSystemsSystems
HydrologistHydrologist
River ForecastRiver ForecastGuidanceGuidance
Model Model CalibrationCalibration
Operational Flood Operational Flood ForecastingForecasting
HH
AA
SS
DataDataSystemsSystems
precip/temp/flow
RiverRiverForecastForecastSystemSystem
QPF
ForecastTemp
HydrologistHydrologist
hydrologicexpertise
Model Model CalibrationCalibration
Rain/Snow Elevations
Graphical Graphical RVFRVF
Soil, snow & routing parameters
Graphical RVF Graphical RVF AvailabilityAvailability
87 official flood 87 official flood forecast points.forecast points.
Routine updates. Routine updates. twice per day.twice per day. morning/afternoon.morning/afternoon.
Updates during Updates during floods.floods. 8am/2pm/8pm/2am.8am/2pm/8pm/2am. as needed.as needed.
Visible to everyone.Visible to everyone.
Graphical River Forecast Graphical River Forecast GuidanceGuidance
BenefitsBenefits
Visual image of meteorological Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation.and hydrological situation.
More information is presented More information is presented than in a text product.than in a text product.
Longer range guidance for Longer range guidance for emergency managers.emergency managers.
Fo
rec
as
t V
alu
e
Accuracy
Timeliness
ForecastingForecastingBalancing Timeliness and Balancing Timeliness and
AccuracyAccuracy
Forecast Lead Time
Graphical River Forecast Graphical River Forecast GuidanceGuidance
Guidance periodGuidance period information has higher information has higher uncertainty.uncertainty.
Timing and amount of Timing and amount of rainfall forecast.rainfall forecast.
Rain/snow level Rain/snow level forecast.forecast.
Unanticipated reservoir Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect regulation will affect downstream forecasts downstream forecasts and guidance.and guidance.
Operational Hydrologic Operational Hydrologic ModelsModels
NWSRFS StructureNWSRFS Structure
ESP
Operational Forecast System
Calibration System
ESP ProductsESP Products
Reservoir Reservoir inflowsinflows
Unregulated Unregulated rivers rivers
Extended Extended forecastsforecasts
AHPS – Relevant ProductsAHPS – Relevant Products
CNRFC CNRFC implemented implemented AHPS locations AHPS locations
Started in Started in WY2005 on 70 WY2005 on 70 pointspoints
ESP Custom Product GenerationESP Custom Product Generation
AHPS – Relevant ProductsAHPS – Relevant ProductsESP Custom Product GenerationESP Custom Product Generation
CNRFC Development CNRFC Development AreasAreas
Flood ForecastingFlood Forecasting Dam Break Support Dam Break Support Flash Flood SupportFlash Flood Support Water Supply ForecastingWater Supply Forecasting Hourly Hydrologic Hourly Hydrologic
ModelingModeling WebsiteWebsite
http://http://www.cnrfc.noaa.govwww.cnrfc.noaa.gov//