Hydrology Report February 2009
Hydrology Report February 2009
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
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Checking and Approval
Prepared by:
Scott Baigent, Senior Hydrologist
Linda Hemsley, Hydrologist
Paul Dunne, Assistant Project Manager
15 Apr 2008
Checked by:
M Clare Dewar
25 Feb 2009 Project Manager
Approved by:
Richard Crowder
25 Feb 2009 Project Director
Contents amendment record
Issue Revision Description Date Signed
0 1 Draft table of contents for comment June 07 MCD
1 0 Draft to OPW for comment Nov 07 MCD
2 0 Final Report Feb 08 MCD
3 0 Final Report following OPW comments April 08 MCD
3 1 Final Report with updated MRFS flows Feb 09 MCD
Halcrow Group Ireland Ltd has prepared this report in accordance with the instructions of the Office of Public Works for their sole and specific use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk.
Halcrow Group Ireland Limited 3A Eastgate Road, Eastgate, Little Island, Cork Tel +353 21 452 4418 Fax +353 21 452 4419 www.halcrow.com
© Halcrow Group Ireland Limited 2009
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Acknowledgements
The Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Strategy is being undertaken by Halcrow Group Ireland Limited with support from MarCon Computation International Ltd, J B Barry & Partners Ltd and Brady Shipman Martin.
This hydrology report has been prepared by Halcrow Group Ltd and J B Barry & Partners Ltd. The meteorological and hydrological analyses presented in Sections 5 and 6 of this report were undertaken by J B Barry & Partners Ltd.
MarCon Computations International
Ltd
BRADY SHIPMAN MARTIN
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Executive Summary
The Office of Public Works and its partners, Cork City Council and Cork County Council, are undertaking a catchment-based flood risk assessment and management study of the Lee Catchment – the Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study (CFRAMS). The main output from this study will be flood maps and a Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan, which will identify a programme of prioritised studies, actions and works to manage the flood risk in the Lee catchment in the long-term. The plan will also make recommendations in relation to appropriate development planning. The Lee CFRAMS is the primary pilot project for a new national approach to flood risk management.
This report details the hydrological assessment that has been undertaken for this study with the objective of determining hydrological inputs for the Lee and its tributaries for specific design events and future scenarios. This is based on a review and analysis of historic flood information and use of meteorological and hydrometric records. The Flood Studies Report (FSR) and Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) methodologies have been used to enable determination of design hydrological inputs considering potential future catchment changes likely to influence flood risk. Hydraulic model calibration and verification events have been identified and integration of the hydrology and hydraulic modelling undertaken. The analysis presented in this report is concerned with the estimation of extreme flows, which will form the basis for subsequent flood level and mapping stages of the Lee CFRAMS.
An extensive review of historical flood related documents has highlighted that there are a number of urban and rural areas at risk of flooding within the Lee catchment from both tidal and fluvial flood mechanisms. Flow, rainfall and tidal gauge data from the catchment and historic flood documentation has allowed at least two calibration/verification events for five of the eight river models representing the main rivers and tributaries in the catchment to be generated. The Lee catchment was sub-divided into 56 sub-catchments in total to ensure representation of the hydrological processes in the catchment is at a scale and resolution appropriate to this study. Three types of hydrological inflows (hydrographs, steady flows and lateral flows) were identified to be used to feed into the hydraulic models; these included the use of lateral inflows in all urban areas to reduce uncertainty.
The study will identify both the existing risk and potential future risk of flooding to communities. There are a number of drivers that can influence future flood risk in the Lee catchment, the main drivers have been identified as being climate change, afforestation and urbanisation. These drivers have been extensively investigated and two future flood risk management scenarios have been proposed, a Mid Range Future Scenario and a High End Future Scenario.
The outputs from this hydrological assessment will inform the subsequent stages of this study, in particular the hydraulic modelling and flood mapping stages. Knowledge of the hydrological processes and historic flooding gained from this work will support the decision making process for the flood risk management options, including the potential of reviewing the operation of the hydroelectric dams before and during flood events.
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Table of contents
Checking and Approval ........................................................................................................... i
Contents amendment record................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgements................................................................................................................. ii
Executive Summary................................................................................................................ iii
Table of contents ..................................................................................................................... v
List of figures ......................................................................................................................... vii
List of tables............................................................................................................................ ix
Glossary ................................................................................................................................... x
1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Background .............................................................................................................. 1
1.2. Objectives................................................................................................................. 1
1.3. Approach .................................................................................................................. 2
2. Data collection ............................................................................................................ 4
2.1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 4
2.2. Topographical data................................................................................................... 4
2.3. Hydrometric data ...................................................................................................... 5
2.4. Meteorological data .................................................................................................. 8
2.5. Tidal data.................................................................................................................. 8
2.6. Mapping data............................................................................................................ 9
3. Description of the Lee Catchment .......................................................................... 11
3.1. Upper Lee catchment ............................................................................................. 12
3.2. Lower Lee catchment ............................................................................................. 13
3.3. River Bride catchment ............................................................................................ 15
3.4. Glashaboy River catchment ................................................................................... 15
3.5. Carrigtohill catchment............................................................................................. 17
3.6. Owennacurra River catchment............................................................................... 18
3.7. Owenboy River catchment ..................................................................................... 19
3.8. Tramore River catchment....................................................................................... 20
3.9. Cork Harbour catchment ........................................................................................ 20
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3.10. Operation of Carrigadrohid and Inishcarra hydroelectric dams ............................. 21
4. Review and analysis of historic floods .................................................................. 24
4.1. Introduction............................................................................................................. 24
4.2. Flood events........................................................................................................... 24
4.3. Summary of Flood Mechanisms............................................................................. 24
4.4. Selection of calibration events ............................................................................... 26
5. Meteorology .............................................................................................................. 29
5.1. Overview ................................................................................................................ 29
5.2. Rainfall growth curves ............................................................................................ 29
5.3. Spatial Distribution of Extreme Rainfall.................................................................. 33
5.4. Historical climate change ....................................................................................... 36
6. Hydrology .................................................................................................................. 37
6.1. Rating curve review................................................................................................ 37
6.2. Index flood.............................................................................................................. 41
6.3. Pooled hydrology growth curve.............................................................................. 49
6.4. Calibration hydrology.............................................................................................. 54
6.5. Design hydrology.................................................................................................... 61
6.6. Sensitivity to changes in catchment parameters.................................................... 66
7. Integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling................................................ 69
7.1. Sub-catchment delineation..................................................................................... 69
7.2. Hydraulic model inflows.......................................................................................... 70
8. Future environmental and catchment changes..................................................... 72
8.1. Introduction............................................................................................................. 72
8.2. Climate change ...................................................................................................... 72
8.3. Afforestation ........................................................................................................... 77
8.4. Urbanisation ........................................................................................................... 80
8.5. Future scenarios for flood risk management.......................................................... 83
8.6. Inclusion of confidence limits in Lee CFRAMS ...................................................... 86
8.7. Policy to aid flood reduction ................................................................................... 86
9. Summary and recommendations............................................................................ 88
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References ............................................................................................................................. 91
Appendix A Data collection
Appendix B Historical flood events
Appendix C Meteorological analysis
Appendix D Hydrological analysis
Appendix E Integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling
Appendix F Future drivers of flood risk
List of figures
Figure 1-1 The Lee catchment .............................................................................................. 1
Figure 2-1 Location map of the hydrometric and tidal gauges in the Lee catchment ........... 7
Figure 2-2 Location of rainfall gauges ................................................................................... 8
Figure 3-1 The nine subcatchments of the Lee catchment ................................................. 11
Figure 3-2 Upper Lee catchment broken down into 8 subcatchments................................ 12
Figure 3-3 Lower Lee catchment broken down into fifteen subcatchments........................ 14
Figure 3-4 River Bride catchment broken down into three subcatchments ........................ 15
Figure 3-5 Glashaboy River broken down into five subcatchments.................................... 16
Figure 3-7 Owennacurra catchment broken down into 6 subcatchments........................... 18
Figure 3-8 Owenboy River catchment broken down into ten subcatchments..................... 19
Figure 3-10 Cork Harbour catchment.................................................................................... 21
Figure 4-1 Seasonality of historic tidal and fluvial floods in the Lee catchment.................. 25
Figure 4-2 Recommended locations for additional meteorological and hydrometric gauges . ........................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 5-1 Lee quartile analysis compared to FSR England/Wales and Scotland/ Northern Ireland growth curves (to M5-2Day class 60-75mm)............................................................... 31
Figure 5-2 Lee quartile analysis compared to FSR England/Wales and Scotland/ Northern Ireland growth curves (to M5-2Day class 75mm-100mm)....................................................... 32
Figure 5-3 Lee quartile analysis compared to FSR England/Wales and Scotland/ Northern Ireland growth curves (to M5-2Day class 100 – 150mm)........................................................ 32
Figure 5-4 M5-2Day. Lee-CFRAMS compared with FSR ................................................... 34
Figure 5-5 M5-2Day. Lee-CFRAMS compared with preliminary FSU (based on meteorological data to June 2006) .......................................................................................... 34
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Figure 5-6 Jenkinson’s Ratio. Lee-CFRAMS and preliminary FSU (based on meteorological data to June 2006) .......................................................................................... 35
Figure 5-7 AAR values for the Lee catchment (based on meteorological data to June 2006) 35
Figure 5-8 Temporal changes in annual maximum rainfall ................................................. 36
Figure 6-1 Location of the 11 gauges for the rating curve review....................................... 39
Figure 6-2 Revised rating curve for gauge 19020............................................................... 40
Figure 6-3 Regional Qmed Relationship ............................................................................... 43
Figure 6-4 Ungauged catchment methodology ................................................................... 45
Figure 6-5 Catchment SPR scale factors............................................................................ 46
Figure 6-6 Study Qmed 95 percentile confidence limits........................................................ 48
Figure 6-7 Hydrometric gauge L-Moment ratio diagram compared with theoretical GEV and GL distributions........................................................................................................................ 50
Figure 6-8 Site indexed annual maximum floods compared with pooled growth curve and the FSR Ireland growth curve.................................................................................................. 51
Figure 6-9 Pooled growth curve and 95%ile confidence limits in relation to FSR Ireland growth curve ........................................................................................................................... 52
Figure 6-10 Study growth curve with 95%ile confidence limit ............................................... 53
Figure 6-11 Averaged Unit Hydrographs at Lee Hydrometric Gauges Compared with Flood Studies Report Unit Hydrograph.............................................................................................. 62
Figure 6-12 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on sub catchment area. ....................................................................................................................... 64
Figure 6-13 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on urban fraction ....................................................................................................................... 64
Figure 6-14 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on SPR (before donor catchment scaling) ............................................................................................ 64
Figure 6-15 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on SPR (after donor catchment scaling). ....................................................................................................... 65
Figure 6-16 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in SPR........... 67
Figure 6-17 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in CWI ........... 67
Figure 6-18 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in M5-2Day rainfall ....................................................................................................................... 67
Figure 6-19 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in urban fraction 68
Figure 7-1 Sub-catchment delineation ................................................................................ 70
Figure 7-2 Example of integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling for the Owenboy hydraulic model ....................................................................................................................... 71
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Figure 8-1 Landscape character areas within the catchment (Source: Cork County Council) ........................................................................................................................... 78
Figure 8-2 Existing urban development in the Lee catchment (based on year 2000 Corine data) ........................................................................................................................... 81
Figure 8-3 Future development in Lee catchment [to time horizon 2020] .......................... 82
List of tables
Table 2-1 Datasets for tidal and surge modelling ................................................................ 9
Table 2-2 Datasets for tidal and surge modelling ................................................................ 9
Table 4-1: Significant recent events in the Lee Catchment ................................................ 25
Table 4-2 Possible calibration/verification events for the Lee and tributaries.................... 26
Table 5-1 Meteorological Station Records to June 2006................................................... 30
Table 6-1 Details of the gauging stations used in the rating curve review......................... 38
Table 6-2 Revised rating equation values for gauge 19020. Flow Q is calculated using the equation Q(h)=C*(h+a)^b. The parameters for the equation are obtained from the table below for varying stages in water depth h.......................................................................................... 41
Table 6-3 Gauged Qmed...................................................................................................... 44
Table 6-4 Study growth factors .......................................................................................... 53
Table 6-5: Actual calibration/verification events for the Lee and tributaries ....................... 60
Table 6-6: Detail of availability of flow gauge data for calibration events ........................... 61
Table 6-7 Study flood-storm return period relationship compared with the Flood Studies Report ........................................................................................................................... 63
Table 6-8 Confidence limit scaling factor ........................................................................... 66
Table 7-1 Breakdown of hydrographs and inflows per hydraulic model ............................ 71
Table 8-1 Land movement (cm) estimates applicable for the Lee CFRAMS from UK literature sources for three future time horizons (baseline for calculating land movement for a given year is taken from 1990). ............................................................................................... 75
Table 8-2 Sea level rise (cm) estimates applicable for the Lee CFRAMS from various UK and Irish literature sources for three future time horizons ....................................................... 76
Table 8-3 Estimates of increase in precipitation (%) applicable to the Lee CFRAMS from various UK and Irish sources for three future time horizons ................................................... 77
Table 8-4 Future afforestation stages – hydrology parameters ......................................... 80
Table 8-5 Future urban development scenarios – hydrology parameters ......................... 83
Table 8-6 Relevant combinations of drivers to provide boundaries for future flood risk.... 84
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Glossary
Term used Explanation
A Catchment Area (km2)
Annual Exceedance
Probability (AEP)
The probability that an event of a specified magnitude will be exceeded in any given year
ANSF Baseflow (m3/s/km2)
AquilaDSF Software tool providing users with the capability to investigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of changes in the quantity and the quality of flows in a river system brought about by changing circumstances within the river catchment
ARF Areal Reduction Factor
Catchment The total area of land that drains into a watercourse
CWI Catchment Wetness Index (averaged to 125mm for study area based on FSR Vol 1 Figure 6.44) (mm)
Digital Elevation Model
(DEM)
A digital representation of the ground surface topography including buildings and vegetation
Digital Terrain Model
(DTM)
A bare earth model of the ground which has all the buildings and vegetation removed
DPRCWI Dynamic Percentage Runoff based on catchment wetness
Flood Estimation
Handbook *(FEH)
Publication giving guidance on rainfall and river flood frequency estimation in the UK
Flood Studies Report
(FSR)
Current industry standard for flood studies in Ireland
Floodplain The land adjacent to a stream or river that experiences occasional or periodic flooding
Fluvial Related to a river or a stream
Gauged catchment Catchments in which river flows are measured through the use of a gauge.
Geographical Information
Systems (GIS)
Software tools used for, storing, analyzing and managing data and associated attributes which are spatially referenced to the earth.
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Term used Explanation
GEV Generalised Extreme Value Distribution, consisting of EV1, EV2 and EV3 distributions
GL Generalised Logistic Distribution
High Resolution Stereo
Camera (HRSC)
An airborne mapping technique which uses a High Resolution Stereo Camera to capture imaging and 3D data which is used to generate a digital terrain model
Hydrograph A plot of the discharge of water as a function of time.
ISIS 1-D computational hydraulic model developed by Halcrow and HR Wallingford
ISIS Reservoir unit ISIS computer model unit used to model floodplain storage. In an unsteady model, it will ensure conservation of mass so that, for example, the overbank spills from a channel are accounted for and may drain back into the main channel as the flood subsides.
Jenkinson’s Ratio Ratio or percentage of (M5-1hr)/(M5-2Day)
Light Detection and
Ranging (LIDAR)
An airborne mapping technique which uses a laser to measure the distance between the aircraft and the ground to produce a digital terrain map of the catchment
M5-2Day 5 year return period, 2 day duration rainfall (mm)
M5-D 5 year return period, D duration rainfall (mm)
MSL Mean Stream Length (km)
MT-D T year return period, D duration rainfall (mm)
Normal depth downstream
boundary
ISIS computer model unit which enables the user to specify a downstream boundary which automatically generates a flow-head relationship based on cross section data.
P Rainfall Depth (mm)
PRRURAL Percentage Runoff of catchment rural component
PRTOTAL Total Percentage runoff, inclusive of rural, urban and catchment wetness contributions
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Term used Explanation
Q1 water levels Water level data recorded at random time intervals.
Q15 water levels Continuous water level data recorded at 15 minute intervals
Qmax Maximum annual water levels
Return period Measurement indicating the likelihood of a flood event of a certain intensity occurring or being exceeded in any given year
S1085 Averaged stream slope, based on points 10% and 85% along stream length (m/km)
S1-S5 Proportion of catchment area contained in the corresponding FSR Winter Rainfall Acceptance Potential category.
AAR Annual Average Rainfall (mm)
SPR Standard Percentage Runoff
T Unit Hydrograph Time Step Interval
Tp Time to Peak (hr)
Ungauged catchment Catchment in which there is no gauge to measure river flows
Urban Fraction of urban extent
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1. Introduction
1.1. Background
The Office of Public Works (OPW) commissioned Halcrow to undertake the Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study (Lee CFRAMS) in August 2006. The Lee CFRAMS is the pilot flood risk assessment and management study in Ireland and will set a framework for future such studies in other catchments across the country.
There is a high level of flood risk in the Lee Catchment from the River Lee, its tributaries and Cork Harbour and a number of significant events have occurred in the past, including August 1986 (an extreme river flooding event) and March 1962 (serious tidal flooding event). The OPW and their partners for this study, Cork City and County Councils have recognised this risk and have commissioned this study as a means of understanding the flooding problem and managing the flood risk through the development of a Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan.
The Lee catchment is one of the largest catchments in the southwest of Ireland and covers an area of approximately 2,000km2 (Figure 1-1). The study encompasses the entire Lee catchment and includes Cork Harbour, the main watercourses and their estuaries, urban areas known to be at risk from flooding, and areas subject to significant development pressure both now and in the future. A full description of the Lee catchment is available in Section 3 of the report.
Figure 1-1 The Lee catchment
1.2. Objectives
As the primary pilot project for the OPW’s CFRAM Programme, the specific objectives of the Lee CFRAMS are to:
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• Assess and map the spatial extent and degree of flood hazard and risk in the catchment with particular focus on urban areas;
• Examine future pressures such as land use and climate changes that could increase the risk of flooding;
• Build the information base necessary for making informed decisions in relation to managing flood risk (including planning and development management);
• Carry out a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). This will ensure that environmental issues and opportunities for enhancement are fully considered throughout the study; and
• Develop an economically, socially and environmentally appropriate long-term (a 50 to 100 year time frame) strategy (a Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan) for managing flood risk to help ensure the safety and sustainability of communities in the catchment
The Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan will include a programme of prioritised actions, measures and works (structural and non-structural) to manage the flood risk in the area in the long-term, and make recommendations in relation to appropriate development planning.
1.3. Approach
In order the meet the objectives set out in Section 1.2, an assessment of the hydrological processes within the catchment is required. The objectives and approach adopted for the hydrological assessment of the Lee catchment incorporates;
• review and analysis of historic flood information;
• identification of suitable calibration and verification flood events;
• use of meteorological and hydrometric records;
• appropriate use of Flood Studies Report (FSR) and Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) methodologies to enable determination of design hydrological inputs;
• integration of hydrology with hydraulic modelling; and
• assessment of potential future catchment changes likely to influence flood risk.
The level of detail adopted ensures the representation of the likely runoff and river flows in the catchment, particularly urban areas, is at a scale and resolution appropriate to this study.
1.4. Technical approach overview
The analysis presented in this report is focused on the maximizing the accuracy of flood flow estimates. In subsequent stages of the Lee CFRAMS, the flood flows will be used in determining flood levels, flood extents and flood risk management options.
The technical approaches outlined in Sections 5 and 6 are concerned with maximizing the accuracy of the flood flow estimates. A statistical review was undertaken of records from nearby meteorological stations and improved the accuracy of standard Flood Studies Report (FSR) design rainfall mapping in the study area (Section 5). Similarly, a statistical review
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was undertaken of hydrometric records in the study catchment and used to calibrate FSR runoff characteristics (Section 6). The design flows were then generated from the calibrated runoff characteristics and corrected design rainfall.
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2. Data collection
2.1. Introduction
A significant amount of data was collected to provide the basis for undertaking the hydrological assessment. The data collected ranged from recorded rainfall and flow values in the catchment to anecdotal evidence of historic flood events and detailed GIS layers of land use within the catchment, and can be grouped under the following headings:
• Topographical data
• Hydrometric data
• Meteorological data
• Tidal data
• Mapping data
• Historic data
This section provides a summary of the data collected for the hydrological analysis which was received in a number of different formats. The majority of the hydrological data was uploaded to AquilaDSF, which was used by the project team for storing, visualising, assessing and distributing hydrological and meteorological data. Specific tools within the software were used for the derivation of unit hydrographs and the generation of the annual maximum series. GIS has been used for the spatial representation of a range of data sets, data storage, data analysis, data management, data calculation and graphical display.
A number of organisations and websites have been consulted to obtain the necessary data including Cork City Council, Cork County Council, EPA, ESB, OPW and Port of Cork. A list of contact organisations and a summary of the data available is outlined in Appendix A.
2.2. Topographical data
2.2.1. Hydrologically corrected DEM
A hydrologically corrected Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the catchment was made available from the EPA. The hydrologically corrected DEM consists of a surface model of the catchment (20m grid cell resolution) which maintains sensible drainage conditions and allows transfer of water across the surface (Preston and Mills, 2002). The DEM was primarily used for the catchment and sub catchment delineation as described in Section 7.1.
2.2.2. Survey data
Maltby Land Surveys Ltd was commissioned by the OPW to survey cross-sections of the rivers and tributaries and relevant channel structures for input into hydraulic models of the rivers. The survey was carried out between March and June of 2007. The data was used in the hydrological analysis to develop hydraulic computer models for carrying out the rating curve review (Section 6.1).
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2.2.3. Floodplain DTM’s
The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the floodplain is a bare earth model of the ground which has all the buildings and vegetation removed. The DTM has a 2m grid cell resolution and was used in the development of the hydraulic models for the rating curve review. The DTM was generated from both Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) data.
Issues relating to the accuracy of the filtering process used to generate the DTM from the HRSC data arose during both the extraction of the floodplain cross sections and comparison with the LiDAR DTM. These accuracy concerns primarily related to DTM coverage of urban areas where buildings were not fully filtered from the raw data, however in the more rural areas the agreement between the two datasets is good. As the majority of the hydrometric gauges are located in rural areas it was decided to continue with the use of the HRSC data for the rating curve review (Section 6.1). It is recommended that rating curves developed using the HRSC data are revised at a future date to include the LiDAR data.
2.3. Hydrometric data
Hydrometric data was received from three organisations, namely the OPW, ESB and EPA. A summary of the data received from each organisation is outlined below. Figure 2-1 shows the location of the hydrometric gauges in the catchment. Appendix A4 contains information on the timescales of this data.
Hydrometric data has been received for four OPW hydrometric stations. Instantaneous 15 minute interval water level data, station ratings and applicable rating periods have been provided for the following four stations; 19001, 19044, 19045, 19046. Additionally spot gauge data and rating equations have been provided for gauge 19001 for the rating curve review.
Hydrometric data has been received from the EPA for the following stations and includes;
• Daily mean flows, Q1 flow values, Q15 flow values and water level data for the following seven hydrometric stations; 19005, 19006, 19009, 19017, 19018, 19020, 19022 and 19032.
• Rating curves for the hydrometric stations listed above plus rating curve data for the following additional hydrometric stations 19036, 19037, 19038, 19039, 19040, 19041, 19042 and 19043
• Spot gauge data and rating equations for gauges 19006, 19018 and 19020
Hydrometric data has been received from the ESB for twelve hydrometric gauges. This data was delivered in a number of different formats as detailed below:
• Q15 water level data has been received for gauges 19011, 19012, 19013, 19014, 19015, 19016, 19027, 19028, 19031, 19036, 19049 and 19050. This data was extracted from the ESB data loggers by the OPW and covers the period of record post 2002
• Q1 water level data has been made available for gauges 19011, 19012, 19013, 19014, 19015, 19016 and 19031. The data has been digitised from ESB chart data by the EPA and covers intermittent periods throughout the recorded data series
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• Qmax water level data is the annual maximum water level data which was manually extracted from the chart data by the ESB. This data covers all the following gauges; 19011, 19012, 19013, 19014, 19015, 19016, 19027, 19028 and 19031
• Spot gauge data and rating equations were provided in a hard copy format for all of the requested gauges. The data was scanned and digitised for the rating curve review
• Chart data was provided for a number of gauges for the following flood events: December 1978, August 1986 and November 2000. The data was digitised by Halcrow and used for the model calibration events (Section 3.4)
• Water level data from gauges within the reservoirs and tail races (19090, 19091, 19092 and 19093) and historical gate and spill settings for a limited number of past flood events have been made available by the ESB.
Analysis of the hydrometric data is included in Section 6 of the report.
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Figure 2-1 Location map of the hydrometric and tidal gauges in the Lee catchment
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2.4. Meteorological data
A request for meteorological data was sent to two organisations, namely Met Éireann and the OPW. Appendix A4 contains information on the period of record of the data made available. The ESB also operate six rain gauges in the catchment, however no data was requested for these gauges as awareness of the availability of this dataset did not provide sufficient time for its inclusion in the analysis. Figure 2-2 shows the location of the rainfall gauges.
Figure 2-2 Location of rainfall gauges
Met Éireann provided both daily rainfall data and hourly rainfall data. Daily rainfall was received for thirty gauging stations, with hourly rainfall data provided for two further stations at Roches Point and Cork Airport. Met Éireann advised that data from the Roches Point gauge post 1990 was not reliable, therefore a full record of this dataset is not available. Additional rainfall data was received for a number of gauges in the upper Lee catchment for calibration of the upper Lee hydraulic model for the December 2006 event.
Meteorological data was received for eight OPW gauging stations in the form of hourly rainfall data. The period of record for this data ranges from early 2005 to mid 2006.
2.5. Tidal data
Tidal gauge data was received from the following organisations; Port of Cork, Met Éireann, ESB, Marathon Oil and Cork City Council. Table 2-1 lists the data available from each of the organisations. Figure 2-1 shows the location of the tidal gauges.
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Table 2-1 Datasets for tidal and surge modelling
Dataset Ownership Time Period Format
Cobh TG Port of Cork 01/12/2000 – 23/03/2006 Electronic
Tivoli TG Port of Cork 01/01/2001 - 31/12/2005 Electronic
Marathon TG Met Éireann 24/06/2002 - 26/06/2006 Electronic
Marina TG ESB 10/10/1953 – 15/10/1990 Paper
Cork City TG Cork City Council Range of dates (1992-2001) Electronic
Access was also granted to a number of paper chart datasets by the Port of Cork (Table 2-2). These datasets have not been made available for analysis outside the offices of the Port of Cork.
Table 2-2 Datasets for tidal and surge modelling
Dataset Ownership Time Period Format
IFI/Net TG Port of Cork 22/08/1980 - 03/01/1986 Paper
IFI/NET TG Port of Cork 08/01/1992 - 16/03/1995 Paper
Cobh TG Port of Cork 01/01/1992 - 09/01/1995 Paper
Tivoli TG Port of Cork 09/07/1993 - 04/03/1996 Paper
Ringaskiddy TG Port of Cork 10/08/1995 - 22/02/2000 Paper
Cork City TG Port of Cork 30/11/1982 - 28/12/1984 Paper
Tidal data was used in the analysis of calibration events for the catchment (Section 4).
2.6. Mapping data
The following is a list of the main mapping datasets that have been used to inform the hydrological assessment of the Lee catchment:
• Subsoils and soils data was made available from the EPA. This data was used to inform the description of the catchments (Section 3) and in the analysis of the hydrometric data (Section 6).
• Corine land cover data (2000) was made available from the EPA. The data was primarily used in both the description of the catchments and in assessing the future environmental and catchment changes (Section 8).
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• Cork County and City development plan data was made available from both Cork County Council and Cork City Council. This data was primarily used in the assessment of future environmental and catchment changes.
• 50,000 scale and 5,000 scale raster maps were made available by the OPW. This data was used throughout the hydrological analysis to provide spatial representation of the various hydrological datasets and in the detailed analysis of specific sections such as the review and analysis of historic flood events (section 4) and the integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling (Section 7).
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3. Description of the Lee Catchment
The Lee catchment covers an area of approximately 2,000km2 and includes all the main rivers and their tributaries draining into Cork Harbour. The River Lee is one of the largest rivers in southwest Ireland rising in the Shehy Mountains to the west and discharging into Cork Harbour to the east. The river and its main tributaries, the rivers Sullane, Laney, Dripsey, Bride and Shournagh drain a catchment of more than 1,100km2 upstream of Cork City. The river is partly controlled by the Carrigadrohid and Inishcarra hydroelectric dams owned by the ESB. The catchment also includes a number of smaller rivers and their estuaries that drain into Cork Harbour. These include the Glashaboy, Owennacurra and Owenboy Rivers.
To facilitate the hydrological assessment and hydraulic modelling of the catchment it has been broken down into nine subcatchments as listed below and shown in Figure 3-1.
(i) Upper Lee
(ii) Lower Lee
(iii) Tramore/Douglas Rivers
(iv) River Bride (north of Cork City)
(v) Glashaboy River
(vi) Owenacurra River
(vii) Carrigtohill area
(viii) Owenboy River
(ix) Cork Harbour area
Figure 3-1 The nine subcatchments of the Lee catchment
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3.1. Upper Lee catchment
The upper Lee catchment encompasses an area of 790km2 and extends from Inishcarra Dam westwards to the Shehy mountains. The catchment borders with County Kerry along the Derrynasaggart Mountains to the north and Bandon River Valley to the south. The main rivers in the catchment include the Lee, Sullane, Foherish, Laney and Dripsey. Land height varies from 649mAOD at Mullaghanish to 50mAOD at Inishcarra reservoir. For the hydrological analysis the upper Lee catchment has been broken down into eight subcatchments as shown in Figure 3-2. The subcatchment areas have been derived so as to provide detailed hydrological inputs into the upper Lee hydraulic model. Section 7 of the report contains further information on the integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling.
Figure 3-2 Upper Lee catchment broken down into 8 subcatchments
The catchment uplands extend around the north and west perimeter of the catchment and consist primarily of exposed rock and sandstone till subsoils. The majority of the catchment is overlain with deep well drained mineral soils with areas of peaty topsoil and planket bogs in the uplands. Agricultural activities in the uplands consist mainly of hill grazing and forestry. Forest cover is largely of coniferous trees with pockets of transitional woodland. Towards the east of the catchment the lower more undulating ground provides better agricultural land with the majority of the land used for pastoral grazing. There are also pockets of arable land and transitional woodland. The subsoils in the lower catchment are predominantly sandstone till with pockets of sandstone sands & gravels and alluvium gravels.
Upper Lee catchment at the Gearagh
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The peat uplands and steep topography give a slightly elevated runoff potential as represented in Figures 6-3 and 6-5 in Section 6 of the report.
Based on analysis of meteorological data (Figure 5-7) the Annual Average Rainfall (AAR) for the catchment is 1450mm. The River Lee and the Sullane River are the primary watercourses draining this rainfall. Both rivers flow in a predominantly west east direction with the Sullane River draining the north of the catchment and the River Lee draining the south of the catchment. The land is characterised by glaciated steep sided river valleys intercepted with ridges of upland. The rivers are generally confined to narrow river valleys with the exception of the River Lee which opens out at the Gearagh to form a wide braided river valley. The River Laney and Foherish River drain the uplands to the north of the catchment to the Sullane River. Two dams control the flow of water from the upper Lee catchment Carrigadrohid Dam and Inishcarra Dam. Further information on these dams is included in Section 3.10. The Glengariff River and Dripsey River are the main rivers discharging to the reservoir along this reach.
Urbanised areas make up approximately 0.3% of the catchment with Macroom being the largest town. Other urban areas include Baile Bhuirne, Baile Mhic Ire, Béal Átha an Ghaorthaidh and Inse Geimhleach. The majority of the urban areas in the catchment are located along the primary watercourses.
3.2. Lower Lee catchment
The lower Lee catchment extends from downstream of Inishcarra Dam to Cork Harbour and covers an area of approximately 420km2. The catchment elevation varies from 367mAOD in the Boggeragh Mountains to approximately 5mAOD in Cork City and has an AAR value of 1100mm. The catchment has been broken down into fifteen sub catchments for detailed hydrological analysis as shown in Figure 3-3.
The catchment is drained by a number of watercourses, the main one being the River Lee, which flows primarily in an east west direction through a wide river valley from downstream of Inishcarra dam through Cork City where it discharges into Cork Harbour. Flows in the River Lee are partly controlled by the operations of Inishcarra Dam. There is also a number of tributaries discharging to the river along this reach. The tidal cycle in Cork Harbour also affects water levels in the River Lee in Cork City. The River Bride, Glasheen River and Curragheen River are the primary water courses draining the land to the south of the River Lee. The River Bride joins the River Lee upstream of Ballincollig with both the Curragheen and Glasheen Rivers discharging to the River Lee in Cork City. The Shournagh River is the primary watercourse draining the north of the catchment. The Shournagh River has two main tributaries; the Blarney River and the Owennagearagh River and joins the River Lee downstream of Ballincollig near Leemount Bridge.
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Figure 3-3 Lower Lee catchment broken down into fifteen subcatchments
The land in the lower Lee catchment is generally undulating with steeper sloping valleys located to the north of the catchment on the slopes of the Boggeragh Mountains. To the south of the catchment, both the River Lee and Bride River have wide flat floodplains which offer flood plain storage potential in a flood event. The geology of the catchment is predominantly sandstone till overlain by a cover of relatively fertile well drained acid brown earths. The geology and topography of the catchment results in a lower runoff potential than the upper Lee catchment as represented in Figures 6-3 and 6-5. The undulating nature and geology of the catchment ensures good agricultural land which is mainly used for pasture grazing. Arable land use is more prominent than in the upper Lee catchment with pockets of land used for complex cultivation on the outskirts of Cork City. Coniferous forestry is confined to the upper slopes of the Boggeragh Mountains with areas of transitional woodland scattered around the catchment.
Urban areas cover approximately 6% of the land in the catchment with Cork City extending for approximately 8km from the Waterworks Weir along the lower Lee valley to the mouth of the river. The suburban areas of Cork City make up a significant portion of the catchment of both the Glasheen River and Curragheen River. The high proportion of urban areas can lead to increased runoff in the sub catchments of these rivers. Runoff from a portion of the lands at
Lower Lee valley
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Cork Airport also discharges to the Glasheen River. Other urban areas located along the river valleys include Ballincollig, Blarney, Tower, Kilumney and Crookstown.
3.3. River Bride catchment
Figure 3-4 River Bride catchment broken down into three subcatchments
The River Bride catchment is located directly north of Cork City covering an area of approximately 42km2. The catchment has been broken down into three sub catchments for detailed hydrological analysis as shown in Figure 3-4.
The land varies in elevation from 188mAOD at Whitechurch in the north of the catchment to approximately 25mAOD along the River Bride valley in Blackpool. The AAR value for the catchment is 1070mm. A number of watercourses drain the catchment including the River Bride, Glennamought River, Glen River, and River Kiln. The upland areas of the River Bride and Glennamought River are made up of predominantly rural land which is used mainly for both pasture and arable farming. The low lying areas of the Glen and Kiln catchments are predominantly urban land and include the Cork City suburbs of Ballyvolane and Farranree. These urban areas have potential for a high runoff rate to the Bride, Glen and Kiln watercourses. Both the Glen River and River Kiln join the River Bride near Blackpool with the Glennamought River merging with the River Bride at the N20 intersection near Kilnap. The River Bride is culverted from Blackpool to where it discharges to the River Lee at the Christy Ring Bridge. The geology of the catchment is predominantly sandstone till overlain by a cover of relatively fertile well drained acid brown earths.
3.4. Glashaboy River catchment
The Glashaboy River catchment extends from the foothills of the Nagles Mountains to Cork Harbour at Dunkettle. The catchment covers an area of 145km2 and has been broken down into five sub catchments for detailed hydrological analysis as shown in Figure 3-5.
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Figure 3-5 Glashaboy River broken down into five subcatchments.
The Glashaboy River rises at the foothills of the Nagles Mountains and flows in a general north south direction to its confluence at Cork Harbour downstream of Glanmire. The river drains the west of the catchment with the Butterstown River draining the east of the catchment. The Butterstown River is a tributary of the Glashaboy River, joining the river at Riverstown. The Black Brook and Cloghnageshee River join the Glashaboy River in the north of the catchment. Water levels in the Glashaboy River are affected by the tidal cycle in Cork Harbour with the tidal influence extending upstream to the town of Glanmire.
The landscape of the catchment is characterised by undulating land which varies in height from 315mAOD in the northwest of the catchment to approximately 5mAOD at Dunkettle. The undulating landscape is intersected by the steep sided narrow valleys of the Glashaboy and Butterstown Rivers. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the catchment with a mixture of both pasture and arable land. Small pockets of transitional woodland are scattered around the catchment. Urban areas account for approximately 3% of the land cover in the catchment. The most significant urban areas include Glanmire and Sallybrook and both towns are located on the banks of both the Glashaboy and Butterstown Rivers. The moderately higher runoff potential suggested in
Glashaboy River valley near Glanmire
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Figure 3-6 Carrigtohill catchment broken down into 4 sub catchments
Figure 6-3 and 6-5 reflects both the topography of the catchment and the location of urban areas to the south of the catchment.
The geology of the catchment is predominantly sandstone till overlain by a cover of relatively fertile well drained acid brown earths. The annual average rainfall for the catchment is 1100mm.
3.5. Carrigtohill catchment
The Carrigtohill catchment is characterised by a series of small unnamed watercourses (typically 1-2m in width) which drain to Cork Harbour near Foaty Island and Harpers Island. The catchment is relatively small and covers an area of 22km2. The catchment has been broken down into four sub catchments for detailed hydrological analysis as shown in Figure 3-6.
The most westerly of these catchments is drained by a watercourse which rises in the north of the catchment and flows in a north south direction towards Carrigtohill. When the watercourse reaches a railway cutting to the north of Carrigtohill (Cork to Midleton railway line), the watercourse splits in two, with a portion of the flow siphoned across the railway cutting and
the remainder of the flow cascading down the railway cutting to a channel along side the railway. This channel discharges to Cork Harbour near Harpers Island. The siphoned water course continues southwards through Carrigtohill discharging to Slatty Pond upstream of Slatty Bridge. This watercourse has been engineered and landscaped both at the IDA Business and Technology Park and further south at the sewage treatment works. An agreement was reached between the IDA and Irish Rail on the flows through the siphon, however despite numerous enquiries regarding this agreement we have yet to receive information on the capacity of the siphon. The east of the catchment is drained by a number of small watercourses which converge to form a second channel which flows through Carrigtohill and discharges to Slatty Pond. Slatty Bridge is the tidal boundary between Cork Harbour and Slatty Pond. A number of flap valves at Slatty Bridge restrict the progression of high tides upstream into Slatty Pond.
The land to the south of the catchment is subject to significant development pressure. A large amount of development has been completed in the Carrigtohill area in the last number of years and a
Urban development in Carrigtohill
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considerable area of land is currently under development. Urban land use makes up approximately 6% of the catchment with Carrigtohill being the most significant urban area. Pasture and arable land makes up the remainder of the land use in the catchment with intertidal mudflats and wetlands around Slatty Water. The catchment soils consist of well drained minerals overlain on sandstone till. The topography of the watercourse draining the west of the catchment and the urban development at the downstream extent of the catchment are likely to lead to increases in the runoff potential of the catchment.
The AAR for the catchment is 1040mm, which drains to Cork Harbour from a maximum elevation of 155mAOD.
3.6. Owennacurra River catchment
The Owennacurra River catchment has two main rivers; the Owennacurra River and the Dungourney River. The catchment has a total area of 170km2 and is broken down into six subcatchments as shown in Figure 3-7. The annual average rainfall for the catchment is 1060mm.
Figure 3-7 Owennacurra catchment broken down into 6 subcatchments
The Owennacurra River rises in the northwest of the catchment and discharges to Cork Harbour south of the town of Midleton where water levels are influenced by the tidal cycle in Cork Harbour. The river predominantly drains the west of the catchment with Dungourney River draining the east of the catchment. The Dungourney River has its confluence with the Owennacurra River in Midleton and is the most significant tributary of the Owennacurra. Both rivers flow through undulating landscape with narrow river valleys in the upper catchment opening out to wide flat floodplains towards the town of Midleton. The ground levels vary in the catchment from 244mAOD in the northeast of the catchment to approximately 5mAOD at Cork Harbour. The steeper topography of the upper catchment and the presence of the urban
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area of Midleton to the south of the catchment results in a slightly higher runoff potential as shown in Figure 6-3 and 6-5.
The geology of the catchment primarily consists of a sandstone till subsoil overlain with a deep well drained mineral soil. Some alluvium deposits exist around the mouth of the river in Cork Harbour. The catchment characteristics and geology make the land ideal for agriculture with land used primarily for pasture and arable farming. Pockets of coniferous forest and transitional woodland are scattered around the catchment. The estuary of the Owenacurra River has areas of tidal mudflats and wetlands.
The town of Midleton is the largest urban area in the catchment and town is located on the confluence of the Owennacurra and Dungourney Rivers stretching southwards along the estuary. Ballynacurra is located on the estuary of the river to the south of Midleton.
3.7. Owenboy River catchment
The Owenboy River rises near Cross Barry and flows in a west east direction, discharging to Cork Harbour at Carrigaline. The lower reaches of the river are tidally influenced. The catchment drains an area of 129km2 and is broken down into ten sub catchments as shown in Figure 3-8. The AAR value for the catchment is 1160mm.
Figure 3-8 Owenboy River catchment broken down into ten subcatchments
The landscape of the catchment is characterised by undulating land which ranges in height from 200mAOD in the northwest of the catchment to approximately 5mAOD in Carrigaline. For the most part the Owenboy River flows through a wide open valley. The geology of the catchment is split along the Owenboy River. To the north of the river the geology primarily consists of sandstone tills overlain with deep well drained mineral soils. To the south of the river the geology primarily consists of shales and sandstone till overlain with deep, poorly drained mineral soils. Discussion on the runoff and flows for the Owenboy catchment are available in Section 6.2.2.The catchment topology and geological characteristic lends itself to
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Figure 3-9 Tramore River catchment broken down into 5 sub catchments.
agriculture. Pasture and arable land make up the majority of the land use in the catchment with some small pockets of natural vegetation and transitional woodland.
The main urban areas in the catchment are Ballinhassig and Carrigaline with urban areas accounting for 4% of the catchment. Carrigaline lies at the fluvial/tidal interface of the Owenboy River and Cork Harbour with Ballinhassig located further upstream in the Owenboy River valley. A significant portion of runoff from Cork airport, to the north of the catchment, discharges to the Owenboy River via the Liberty Stream and an outfall pipe.
3.8. Tramore River catchment
The Tramore River catchment covers an area of 21 km2 and lies to the south of Cork City with the suburban areas of the city making up a significant portion of the catchment land use. These suburban areas include Ballyphehane, Douglas, Grange and Donnybrook. The Tramore River rises in the southwest of the catchment and flows into Lough Mahon in Cork Harbour. The Tramore River is joined by a number of small tributaries draining the land to the south of the catchment with the most significant of these tributaries, the Douglas River,
joining it in Douglas. There are two discharge points from the northside of Cork Airport, which carry runoff from the airport to the Tramore River. The
catchment has been broken down into five subcatchments for detailed hydrological analysis as shown in Figure 3-9. The AAR value for the catchment is 1080mm.
Discontinuous urban fabric is concentrated in the north of the catchment and makes up 42% of the land use. Pasture and arable farmlands make up the remainder of the land use. Much of the urban fabric of the catchment has been constructed on made ground. The remaining catchment geology is primarily made up of sandstone till overlain with a well drained mineral soil. The proportion of urban land use results in the catchment having a higher than average runoff potential.
3.9. Cork Harbour catchment
The catchment of Cork Harbour is approximately 164km2 and consists of a relatively narrow band of land stretching around the perimeter of Cork Harbour. The catchment includes the areas of Great Island, Foaty Island and Little Island. Figure 3-10 shows a map of the Cork Harbour catchment. A number of urban areas are located around the shores of
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Cork Harbour and include the Cork City suburbs of Blackrock, Mahon, Douglas and Rochestown, which lie on Lough Mahon and the Douglas Estuary. Urban areas in the lower harbour include Passage West, Monkstown, Ringaskiddy and Crosshaven. The eastern shore of Cork Harbour is less densely populated and includes the villages of Whitegate and Aghada. Cobh is the largest town in the catchment and is located on the southern shore of Great Island. In total, urban land cover accounts for approximately 5% of the total.
Agriculture is the primary land use in the catchment with arable and pasture making up the majority of the land use. Intertidal mudflats are located along the shores of the harbour most notably in the upper harbour around Loch Mahon and in the river estuaries.
Figure 3-10 Cork Harbour catchment
The geology of the catchment primarily consists of a sandstone till overlain with a deep well drained mineral soil. A significant portion of the lands around the catchment rise steeply from the shores of the harbour to form an undulating landscape.
3.10. Operation of Carrigadrohid and Inishcarra hydroelectric dams
The River Lee hydro-electric scheme was built during the period 1952 to 1957 and consists of two dams at Inishcarra and Carrigadrohid. Inishcarra Dam is located approximately 13km west of Cork City with Carrigadrohid Dam a further 14km upstream. The construction of the dams created two lakes which stretch from Inishcarra upstream to the Gearagh. The lakes cover an area of approximately 14km2 and have a storage capacity of 45 million cubic meters. A number of meetings were held with ESB at Inishcarra to discuss the general operations of the dams and more specifically the operation of the dams during a flood event. At the time of writing this report we are still awaiting a significant portion of data to help inform our analysis
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of the operation of the dams. This data includes water levels from gauges within the reservoir as well as tail race and historical gate and spill settings for past flood events.
In normal day to day operations, the dams are run to maximise electricity generation that is dependant on the available head of water in the reservoirs and flow rate. Actual electricity generation varies with daily electricity demand. This demand has changed over the last number of years through the deregulation of the electricity supply in Ireland and the introduction of alternative energy sources. In the event of a flood the hydro power stations have priority on supply of electricity to the networks. This allows the stations to maximise the throughput of flood water through the turbines for optimum electricity generation and control of water levels in the reservoirs rather than just spilling through the sluice gates. Control of water levels in the reservoirs also varies seasonally. In the summer, water levels in the reservoir upstream at Carrigadrohid Dam are kept high to cover over tree stumps at the Gearagh. Drawdown of this reservoir is also limited to 0.6m in 24 hours so as not to impact on bank stability around the perimeter of the reservoir.
3.10.1. Operation of the dams in a flood event
During a flood event the dams are operated in line with the Regulations & Guidelines for the Control of the River Lee. These regulations were revised in 1991 following dam improvement works and again in 2003 to take account of the new hydro control centre based at Turlough Hill. Operations at the dams at Inishcarra and Carrigadrohid can be remotely controlled from the hydro control centre at Turlough Hill but local control is retained during a flood event. The regulations, which are currently under review, in conjunction with the dam improvement works, mean that the two dams are capable of dealing safely with flood events of up to a 0.01% annual exceedance probability. The regulations are applied when the water levels in the reservoirs reach the Maximum Normal Operating Level. Up to this level, the ESB Hydro Manager on the advice of the ESB Hydrometric Officer has the option of spilling to increase storage and/or reduce flooding at a later stage. The amount of spilling varies for each event and is based on water levels, meteorological forecasts and the judgement of the ESB hydro manager and hydrometric officer. The quantity of water spilled during a flood is based on detailed reservoir level and discharge operation rules at both dams. At all times during a flood event the top priority for the ESB is the proper management of the flood to avoid any risk to dam safety. Also of critical importance is that the peak outflow from Inishcarra does not exceed the peak inflow during a storm.
During a flood event the following information is available to the ESB at Inishcarra (it was noted by the ESB that some of these technologies have only been available in the last ten years);
ESB rain gauge data
The ESB have six rain gauges located around the catchment including gauges at both reservoirs, Inse Geimhleach, Reananerree, Ballyvourney and Mushera. Data from these gauges can be accessed via a dial in system. The gauges will also automatically inform both Inishcarra and Turlough Hill when a certain threshold of rainfall has been reached at the gauges. The system was due to be upgraded during December 2007. Data from the ESB rainfall gauges were not readily available for use in this study. However the coverage of Met Éireann rainfall gauges was considered sufficient for the purposes of this study.
Met Éireann forecast data
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Met Éireann issue detailed five day forecasts for the catchment to the ESB on a daily basis. Where rainfall is expected to exceed 25mm in any given day, Met Éireann will issue a flood warning to the ESB. Radar rainfall data is also available live to the ESB. This data is updated on a 15 minute interval basis and is accessed via computer software.
Flood model
An indicative computer flood model of the reservoirs allows the ESB to input a number of variables which in turn will provide information on how much water should be spilled from the reservoirs. These variables include the rainfall for the last 12 and 48 hours, the latest hourly rainfall values from the six ESB rain gauges, the latest reservoir levels and the predicted rainfall for the next five days from Met Éireann. The model produces inflow and discharge hydrographs from the inputted rainfall and reservoir level data.
Reservoir levels
Reservoir and tail race levels are available from a number of gauges in both the reservoirs and tail races and these levels can be accessed via mobile phones. Water levels at the two dams are also constantly on display at Inishcarra control station. Discussions with the ESB suggest that the operation of the dams is primarily based on reservoir levels prior to and during a flood event.
It is understood from the ESB that, during a flood event, inflows to the reservoirs from the ESB flow gauges in the catchment are not monitored (instead they use rainfall data and reservoir levels with their indicative flood model). Also, flows in the Shournagh River and Bride River are not monitored and spill rates from the Inishcarra dam during a flood event are not regulated based on flows in these rivers. Tide levels in Cork City are monitored by ESB staff during a flood event although it is understood that ESB operation rules do not include for the regulation of spill rates during a flood event based on tidal levels.
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4. Review and analysis of historic floods
4.1. Introduction
The recently released OPW National Flood Hazard Mapping website (http://www.floodmaps.ie/) has provided a wealth of information about past flood events in the Lee Catchment. It contains information on past flood events from detailed reports and photographs, to newspaper articles and minutes of meetings. The following sections provide a summary of the historic flood information that was reviewed. The information in this section is based on the reports available from the Flood Hazard Mapping website, many of which were obtained from Cork City and Council area engineers as well as specific studies undertaken after larger events, such as August 1986. The list of flood events noted here has been further enhanced from the public consultation phase of the project and through discussion with Local Authority Area Engineers.
4.2. Flood events
The review of documents has highlighted that there are a number of areas at risk of flooding within the Lee catchment. It is apparent that there are several rural and urban areas that experience frequent flooding including Cork City, Ballincollig, Macroom and Carrigaline among others. These frequent flooding problems can cause flood risk to public roads, properties and farmland and result from both fluvial and tidal mechanisms. The main events that have occurred in the Lee include the August 1986 flood event which caused severe flooding in Macroom in particular and the November 2004 tidal event which caused flooding in Cork City and communities around the harbour.
Appendix B contains a more detailed list of the flood events and areas flooded as collated during the review of historic floods in the Lee catchment.
4.3. Summary of flood mechanisms
From the reports and documents reviewed in Section 4.2, risk of flooding occurs from both fluvial and tidal mechanisms. A further problem occurs from pluvial flooding in some areas where surface water cannot escape due to high river or tide levels. Flooding is also exacerbated by under capacity bridges and culverts and by debris causing blockages in some areas. For example bridge under capacity/blockage issues in Crookstown, Ballymakeery, Carrigaline and Douglas (pedestrian bridge since up-graded on Ballybrack Stream after 2002 flooding) have caused localised flooding problems in those areas, Appendix B contains further information on flood mechanisms during historic floods in the Lee catchment.
Table 4-1 lists the worst recent fluvial and tidal flood events documented in terms of both volume of flooding and number of areas flooded.
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Table 4-1: Significant recent events in the Lee Catchment
Flood Event Main Flood
Mechanism
Rivers Affected Areas Affected
August 1986 Fluvial Lee; Sullane; Laney; Shournagh
Baile Mhic Íre; Macroom; Ballincollig; Blarney; Cork City
November 2000 Fluvial Lee; Owennacurra; Martin; Shournagh
Midleton; Watergrasshill; Fivemilebridge; Ballinhassig; Ballygarvan; Cork City; Ballincollig; Blarney
November 2002 Fluvial Lee; Glashaboy; Owenboy; Ballybrack; Butlerstown
Douglas; Carrigaline; Ballygarvan; Ballinhassig; Monkstown-Passage West; Riverstown
October 2004 Tidal Lower Lee and Cork Harbour
Cork City; Cobh; Whitegate; Monkstown-Passage West; Crosshaven; Ringaskiddy; Glounthaune; Glanmire; Midleton; Carrigaline
December 2006 Fluvial Sullane Baile Mhic Íre
Figure 4-1 illustrates the seasonality of the flood history in the Lee Catchment (fluvial & tidal). The majority of the floods have occurred during the winter season, most in November. However, one of the worst fluvial floods occurred in early August (classed as Autumn).
Summer 0%Spring19%
Autumn19%
Winter62%
Figure 4-1 Seasonality of historic tidal and fluvial floods in the Lee catchment
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Since the Lee CFRAMS commenced in August 2006 and up to the end of January 2008, there have been four relatively minor flood events in the catchment:
• On 8 October 2006 during a period of exceptionally high tides (return period of approximately 18 years) a number of roads and properties in the Cork City centre area were flooded. Particular problems were caused by cars driving through the flooded streets and causing surface waves, which further increased the flood damage to properties.
• On 25 October 2006 a flood event occurred due to very heavy rain in the county area of Cork, particularly around the harbour.
• On 7 and 9 December 2006, flooding (with a return period of between 2 and 5 years) occurred in Baile Mhic Íre following a number of days of heavy rainfall. The general consensus was that the flooding on the 9 December was worse than the flooding that took place in the village in 2001 but not as bad as the flooding of 1986. During the December 2006 event, areas downstream of Inishcarra Dam including Inishcarra and Carrigrohane Road were also flooded.
• Following a number of days of rain, flooding occurred at a number of locations around the catchment on 09 January 2008 including the Lee Road, Lee Fields and parts of Macroom. The flooding was not as extensive as December 2006, however, according to local residents water levels in the Shournagh River and Dripsey River were the highest for over 8 years.
4.4. Selection of calibration events
Based on the review of flood events and associated information a selection of possible calibration and verification events have been chosen, as shown in Table 4-2. The use of the events is subject to sufficient information, in terms of both flow gauge data and documented evidence of areas and levels of flooding. The use of more recent events is preferred and to support this approach four of the events selected were within the last seven years. As can be seen from Table 4-2, a total of six events have been identified covering both fluvial and tidal flooding mechanisms. Of these six events at least two are available for each of the upper Lee, lower Lee, Glashaboy, Owennacurra and Owenboy river models allowing for a calibration and verification event for each of those models.
Table 4-2 Possible calibration/verification events for the Lee and tributaries
River Model Dec 1978 (Fluvial)
Aug 1986 (Fluvial)
Nov 2000 (Fluvial)
Nov 2002 (Fluvial)
Oct 2004
(Tidal)
Dec 2006 (Fluvial)
Upper Lee x x x
Lower Lee x x x
Glashaboy x x
Owennacurra x x
Owenboy x x
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In addition to the five hydraulic river models noted in Table 4-2, three hydraulic models representing the Tramore River, Bride River and the watercourses that flow through Carrigtohill are also to be constructed. These watercourses are ungauged and therefore there is no calibration information available for these models. However, information on any flooding having occurred in these areas will be considered when modelling these watercourses with design events. Further details on the calibration events and hydrology are contained in Section 6.4.
4.5. Coverage of meteorological and hydrometric gauges
4.5.1. Overview
This section of the report presents recommendations for enhancing the meteorological and hydrometric network in the Lee catchment for the purposes of improving flood flow estimation.
The Lee CFRAMS study area has an abundance of meteorological and hydrometric gauges, however not all gauges are ideally located to aid flood estimation, have data readily available or have sufficient accuracy.
4.5.2. Meteorological gtauges
Met Éireann and OPW have established a comprehensive network of meteorological gauges in the Lee CFRAMS study area. The development of isohyetal plots would be enhanced by three additional meteorological gauges in the East and South of the study area (Figure 4-2).
Two additional rainfall gauges are recommended in the Owenacurra catchment, one at the base of the valley 1km North of Middleton, and another on a high spur between the Owenncurra and Leamlarra Rivers.
Figure 4-2 Recommended locations for additional meteorological and hydrometric gauges
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As identified in Section 6, further monitoring of the Owenboy catchment is warranted, and a meteorological gauge at the base of the Owenboy valley in the vicinity of Ballinhassig would assist in identifying likely topographical trends in rainfall patterns.
4.5.3. Hydrometric gauges
A reasonable hydrometric gauge coverage exists of the primary rivers, with the exception of the Tramore River, Curragheen River, Glasheen River, Bride River North and Dungourney River. Gauges on all five rivers would assist in the flood estimation of sensitive watercourses, and are recommended. Section 6.2.2 recommends that an additional hydrometric gauge is placed on the Owenboy River to assist in future reviews of the catchment runoff characteristics. Figure 4-2 provides indicative proposed locations for the four recorders, subject to a site specific suitability review.
Of the 583 cumulative years (to 2006) of hydrometric data available in the study area, 295 years are held in undigitised paper chart format, although much of this paper record has had annual maximum flows manually extracted for this study. Much of the ESB paper chart record is not readily available for third party use. It is recommended that the full data record is digitized to enable further analysis options to future reviews of the Lee CFRAMS hydrology, including peak over threshold statistical analysis and unit hydrograph analysis.
Difficulties appear to exist in accessing ESB digital data between 2002 and 2006, and in particular reservoir levels and gate and spill flows between 2000 and 2006 are not readily available. It is recommended that a joint ESB and OPW review is undertaken to ascertain whether further collaboration is possible in accessing, storing and disseminating data from ESB gauges.
Rating reviews were undertaken of eleven prioritised gauges as part of this study. Rating reviews of the remaining ten gauges as part of the next review will assist in maximizing the potential of the lower priority hydrometric gauges in the study area.
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5. Meteorology
5.1. Overview
The meteorological analysis undertaken for the Lee CFRAMS follows the Flood Studies Report (FSR) Volume II Meteorological Studies approach. The FSR is the current industry standard for flooding studies in Ireland and hence the definitive baseline for any subsequent review of extreme patterns. The UK Flood Estimation Handbook Volume 2 was also referred to, particularly in the treatment of the median annual rainfall as opposed to the mean annual rainfall.
In accordance with the FSR, the following primary meteorological outputs were produced:
• Average Annual Rainfall isohyetal plots for Lee Catchment;
• M5-2day (5 year return period rainfall, with a 2 day storm duration ) isohyetal plots for the Lee catchment;
• Rainfall growth curves for the Lee catchment;
• Values for Jenkinson’s r (M5-60min/M5-2day).
The methodology undertaken is presented in detail in Appendix C and further background information on the methodology used can also be obtained from:
• Flood Studies Report Volume II Meteorological Studies Section 2 : Regional Analysis
of Point Rainfall Extremes and Section 3 : Estimation and Mapping of M5 (5 year)
Values for Different Durations;
• Flood Estimation Handbook Volume 2: Rainfall Frequency Estimation (FEH) Chapter
8: Deriving Growth Curves.
The following sections summarise the primary outputs from the meteorological analysis.
5.2. Rainfall growth curves
Extreme rainfall analysis in catchment flooding studies is concerned with defining the:
• Spatial distribution of an index event (FSR uses the 5 year return period rainfall);
• Relationship between the index event return period and alternative return periods (referred to as the growth curve);
• Relationship between different storm durations.
The Lee CFRAMS rainfall growth curve was developed from available rainfall records, and then compared to the FSR rainfall growth curves. Data from 42 meteorological stations were available to this study and 29 stations were considered to have a sufficient length of record for extreme rainfall statistical analysis (greater than 10 years of data) (Table 5-1). Rainfall records were provided by Met Éireann up to 30 June 2006. Data availability at rainfall gauges and data type is outlined in Appendix A4.
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Table 5-1 Meteorological Station Records to June 2006
Station Name Station ID N
(yrs)
AAR
(mm)
M5-2Day
(mm)
Roche's Point 1004 54 983 68.9
Rathduff G.S. 1504 60 1119 80.8
Coomclogh Daily 1901 13 2091 103.3
Ballyvourney (Clountycarty) 2604 58 1433 88.3
Gouganebarra Daily 2704 58 2391 137.2
Donoughmore Daily 2804 58 1196 81.3
Ballinagree (Mushera)* 2904 56
Ballingeary (Voc.Sch.) 3004 58 1841 122.4
Carrigadrohid (Gen.Stn.) 3604 53 1102 78.4
Inishcarra (Gen.Stn.) 3704 52 1022 75.2
Macroom (Renanirree) 3804 47 1517 95.0
Youghal (St.Raphael's 3806 43 889 68.7
Cork Airport 3904 44 1123 82.7
Ballineen Daily 4002 21 1276 88.0
Ballintrideen Daily 4402 11 1182 84.8
Ballymacoda (Mountcotton) 4404 30 940 70.7
Ballineen (Carbery) 4602 11 1467 85.6
Dungourney (Ballyeightragh) 4804 28 1229 84.7
Killeagh (Monabraher) 4904 30 1151 93.2
Shanagarry North 5004 30 938 66.1
Macroom (Curraleigh) 5204 29 1778 91.1
Dunmanway (Keelaraheen) 5302 6
Cork Montenotte 5404 22 953 77.3
Cork (Douglas) 5504 22 1076 84.8
Aherlamore Daily 5704 21 1203 85.3
Watergrasshill (Tinageragh) 5804 18 1181 88.4
Muskerry (Golf 6104 11 1087 84.8
*Gauge reported as unreliable after 1969
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In accordance with FSR methodology, the 29 rainfall gauges were separated into 3 subsets: M5-2Day range 60-75mm, M5-2Day 75-100mm, M5-2Day range 100-150mm. Results from the quartile analysis were plotted against the FSR rainfall growth curves for England/Wales and Scotland/Northern Ireland as Ireland rainfall growth curves were not provided in the Flood Studies Report. Common practice in Ireland is to adopt England/Wales values for the Dublin Region, and Scotland/NI values for the remainder of Ireland.
Comparing plotted study values against the standard FSR rainfall values, suggest that the Lee catchment rainfall patterns closely follow the milder Scotland/Northern Ireland growth curve for all three range classes. A flattening trend is apparent in the H1 (highest value) data in Figure 5.2 and 5.3, which may be indicative of a spatial dependence influence in the high end value. Based on the closeness of fit, the possibility of spatial dependence influences in the H1 data and the requirement to consider return periods outside of the range supported by the statistical record, the Scotland/Northern Ireland rainfall growth curves have been used directly in the Lee CFRAMS analysis (Figures 5-1 to 5-3). A further explanation of the quartile analysis is provided in Appendix C.
River Lee Catchment 60-75mm 2 Day Growth Curve
1/2 1 2 10 20 50 100 1000 1000050
50
100
150
200
250
300
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
reduced variate y
Ra
infa
ll (m
m)
Eng/Wales Scot/NI Lee - Quartile Lee - H1
Ret urn Per iod
Figure 5-1 Lee quartile analysis compared to FSR England/Wales and Scotland/ Northern Ireland growth curves (for gauges with a M5-2Day range of 60-75mm)
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River Lee Catchment 75-100 mm 2 Day Growth Curve
1/2 1 2 10 20 50 100 1000 1000050
50
100
150
200
250
300
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
reduced variate y
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Eng/Wales Scot/NI Lee - Quartile Lee - H1
Ret urn Period
Figure 5-2 Lee quartile analysis compared to FSR England/Wales and Scotland/ Northern Ireland growth curves (for gauges with a M5-2Day range of 75mm-100mm)
Lee Catchment 100-150 mm 2 Day Growth Curve
1/2 1 2 10 20 50 100 1000 1000050
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
reduced variate y
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Eng/Wales Scot/NI Lee - Quartile Lee - H1
Ret urn Period
Figure 5-3 Lee quartile analysis compared to FSR England/Wales and Scotland/ Northern Ireland growth curves (for gauges with a M5-2Day range of 100 – 150mm)
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5.3. Spatial distribution of extreme rainfall
The spatial distribution of extreme rainfall patterns are often derived by plotting the index rainfall event across the area of interest. In accordance with the FSR, two index rainfall distributions were used in this study, the M5-2Day (5 year return period, 2 day duration) and the Jenkinson’s Ratio (5 year 1hr duration divided by 5 year 2 day duration). The former defines the distribution of the rainfall magnitude, with the 2 day duration facilitating the use of the more abundant daily rainfall gauges (29 used in Lee CFRAMS including synoptic stations), while the latter defines any spatial variation in the relationship between alternative rainfall durations, from sparser synoptic stations (2 used in Lee-CFRAMS).
M5-2Day values from available meteorological stations were plotted and rainfall isohyetal contours developed. Contours were manually drawn to facilitate the inclusion of a topographical bias, as apparent in the available data. The M5-2Day contours were found to vary from 125mm in the western mountains to 70mm in the south east (Figure 5-4).
The contours displayed a very good correlation in the western quarter of the study area with the original FSR M5-2Day plots, however, the FSR plots are found to under predict actual rainfall patterns by 7% to 20% from around Inse Geimhleach, to the eastern extent of the study area. This under prediction has important implications for flood alleviation, hydraulic structure and surface water drainage design throughout the study area (Figure 5-4).
The study M5-2Day distribution does however correspond well with preliminary outputs from the ongoing Flood Studies Update (FSU) (Figure 5-5), with little discernable variance throughout the study area. Minor variance exists in the far western mountains (Carran, Conigar, Foilastooken), with the FSU reaching 150mm. This variance is potentially through the use of additional rainfall gauges outside of the study area by the FSU, however the overlap with the study catchment area is negligible, and the variance is of little consequence to flood estimation in the Lee catchment.
Given the rainfall under prediction identified in the FSR rainfall mapping, it is recommended that the City and County Councils consider the interim use of the Lee CFRAMS M5-2Day contours or preliminary FSU outputs for surface water drainage design within the study area or increase FSR M5-2Day values by 20% throughout the Lee CFRAM study area. Following dissemination of FSU rainfall information, it is recommended that the FSU rainfall is used directly for all design applications.
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Figure 5-4 M5-2Day. Lee-CFRAMS compared with FSR
Figure 5-5 M5-2Day. Lee-CFRAMS compared with preliminary FSU (based on meteorological data to June 2006)
Development of study specific Jenkinson’s ratio contours is limited, as long term hourly rainfall data is only available at Roche’s Point and Cork Airport synoptic stations in the southeast of the study area. No significant deviation is discernable between the FSR, preliminary FSU results and the values derived as part of this study (Figure 5-6).
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As no spatial distribution across the study area is possible from the Roche’s Point and Cork Airport stations, the preliminary FSU contours have been used in this study.
Figure 5-6 Jenkinson’s Ratio. Lee-CFRAMS and preliminary FSU (based on meteorological data to June 2006)
Figure 5-7 AAR values for the Lee catchment (based on meteorological data to June 2006)
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5.4. Historical climate change
A review of historical rainfall annual maximum, suggests that extreme rainfall may be slightly tending above the historical median (Figure 5-8). While the 2005 5 year moving average was at the historical median, the 2005 10 year moving average is 8% above the historical level. The 1 year average median for 2005 is 23% above the historical level, and anecdotal evidence of flooding in 2006, suggests that subsequent long term averages may tend higher. However, an insufficient trend is apparent from the historical Lee catchment rainfall data to suggest a sustained departure from historical fluctuations.
Based on the high 10 year average level, it is recommended that the Lee CFRAMS annual maximum rainfall values are reviewed on an annual basis. If this review identifies a sustained increase in long term annual maximum rainfall trends, it is recommended that the index rainfall is increased throughout the study area.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Hydrometric Year
Ran
nual
Max
/Rav
erag
e an
nual
Max
10 year average 5 year average
Figure 5-8 Temporal changes in annual maximum rainfall
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6. Hydrology
The following chapter details the hydrological process undertaken to derive the calibration and design event hydrology. The analysis is focused on maximising the potential accuracy of design flow estimates that will in-turn be used for subsequent hydraulic modelling, flood mapping and flood management option developments. The methodology is summarised as follows:
1. A rating review was undertaken by the project team to build on the ‘low confidence’ associated with the gauging stations (March 2006) and flow data re-generated from the hydrometric level record (Section 6.1);.
2. The index flood of individual hydrometric gauges is calculated from the re-generated flow record. This estimate is said to be for a gauged catchment. In this study the Median Annual Flood (Qmed) is used as the index flood, consistent with the Flood Estimation Handbook (Section 6.2.2);
3. The Flood Studies Report Unit Hydrograph technique is used to estimate the index flood at the gauged catchments and then adjusted to the estimate predicted from the flow record by scaling a runoff parameter, SPR (Section 6.2.3);
4. The index flood for ungauged catchments is calculated using the Flood Studies Report Unit Hydrograph technique and an averaged SPR scale parameter from nearby gauged catchments applied (Section 6.2.3). This technique ensures that all flood estimates are correlated to actual flow records;
5. The relationship between the index flood, Qmed and other more extreme floods is defined by the growth curve. This study has used the Flood Estimation Handbook statistical techniques to derive a study growth curve from flow records (Section 6.3);
6. Calibration events for the hydraulic models have been selected, and Section 6.4 defines the sources of the flow inputs;
7. Design hydrographs were developed using the Flood Studies Report techniques, applying the study growth curve and a study derived unit hydrograph (Section 6.5). The design hydrographs form the primary deliverables from the hydrological analysis.
6.1. Rating curve review
Rating curves provide a relationship between water levels and flows in a river, which can be defined at any location along a river reach. Gauging stations record the water level at a particular location along a river reach and the rating curve is used to produce a flow estimate from these recorded water levels. The rating curve is established through recorded field measurements of flow against a recorded water level for a range of water levels, known as spot gaugings. Extrapolation of the rating curve is often necessary as spot gaugings tend not to cover the full range of levels at a gauging station. For example, during high river flows spot gaugings are difficult to record due to flood conditions and the fact that gauging structures are often drowned.
As part of the inception process, the high flow rating for each gauge in the catchment were assessed based on information received from the EPA, OPW, ESB and the Hydro-logic report “Review of Flood Flow Ratings for Flood Studies Update” (March 2006). Based on the
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information available, all gauges in the catchment were assigned a low confidence level for out of bank high flows. Eleven hydrometric gauges were selected for a detailed rating review based on meaningful data records and providing a good spatial coverage. Table 6-1 provides details of the gauges reviewed, gauge location, type of gauging and the DTM data used to develop the hydraulic models. Figure 6-1 shows the location of the eleven gauges.
Table 6-1 Details of the gauging stations used in the rating curve review
Gauging station Location Managing
Organisation
Gauging type DTM data
19001 Ballea Bridge OPW Weir LiDAR
19006 Glanmire EPA Open channel HRSC
19011 Leemount Upper ESB Open channel HRSC
19012 Leemount Lower ESB Open channel HRSC
19013 Inishcarra ESB Open channel HRSC
19014 Dromcarra ESB Open channel LiDAR
19015 Healy’s Bridge ESB Open channel HRSC
19016 Ovens ESB Open channel LiDAR
19018 Tower EPA Open channel HRSC
19020 Ballyedmond EPA Open channel LiDAR
19031 Macroom ESB Open channel LiDAR
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Figure 6-1 Location of the 11 gauges for the rating curve review
A site visit was carried out to each of the individual gauges to help understand the hydraulics and any relevant features at the gauges. A review of available historical information on the gaugings was carried out to assess if the gauging station had changed with time. This included assessment of any structural changes or changes in the channel upstream and downstream of the gauge. This information was used in developing a channel and structure cross section location plan to ensure the hydraulic model reaches extend far enough to explicitly model any impacts upstream and downstream of the gauges.
The rating curve review assessed the existing rating and extended the rating curves to high flows using local hydraulic computer models and followed guidance in the “Extension of Rating Curves at Gauging Stations. Best Practice Guidance Manual. R&D Manual W6-061/M” (2003). Eleven separate ISIS 1D hydraulic computer models were developed using a combination of channel & structure cross sectional survey data and DTM’s developed from either LiDAR or HRSC data. Cross sections were surveyed at approximately 100m intervals and extended over-bank for 20 metres to allow for tie in to the floodplain DTM. Up to four cross sections were surveyed at structures and were sufficiently detailed to allow accurate representation of the structure in the hydraulic models. The DTM was used to develop both integrated channel/floodplain cross sections and ISIS reservoirs. Where appropriate, ISIS reservoirs are used in place of extended floodplain cross sections to model floodplain storage by ensuring that overbank spills from a channel are accounted for and may drain back to the channel as the flood subsides. The models were run with flow hydrographs and a normal depth downstream boundary.
The models were calibrated using in bank spot gauge data. Water levels obtained from the hydraulic models were used to assess the existing rating and to generate the over bank section of the rating curve. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the effect on the predicted rating of changes to specific hydraulic parameters such as channel roughness and structure coefficients.
An analysis spreadsheet was set up for each of the individual gauges to carry out the rating review. The current rating equation data was used to plot the rating curves at each of the
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eleven gauges. Spot gauge data was plotted for both the entire data range and the winter data range and checked for any onerous values.
Water level data and flows were exported from ISIS to the analysis spreadsheet. Data was exported for various hydraulic model runs using specific hydraulic model parameters. Water level data was converted to a staff gauge datum to allow the results to be plotted against the existing rating curves. A revised rating was established by adjusting the number of rating equation segments and values until the desired rating curve was achieved. Where there was uncertainty regarding the rating, the relevant authority was contacted for further information on the rating values being used. Figure 6-2 and Table 6-2 show the revised rating for gauge 19020 at Ballyedmond on the Owennacurra River. Further information on each of the individual rating curves is available in Appendix D1.
G19020 at Ballyedmond
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommendedn=0.040 n=0.050 EPA Ratingn=0.035 n=0.045 (Best f it)
Bankfull stage:1.5m ASD
Figure 6-2 Revised rating curve for gauge 19020
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Table 6-2 Revised rating equation values for gauge 19020. Flow Q is calculated using the equation Q(h)=C*(h+a)^b. The parameters for the equation are obtained from the table below for varying stages in water depth h.
Section Minimum
stage (m)
Maximum
stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 0.374 28.986 0.000 3.428
2 0.374 0.895 10.011 0.000 2.347
3 0.895 1.417 9.530 0.000 1.901
4 1.417 2.000 9.564 0.000 1.931
5 2.000 2.500 9.217 0.000 1.995
6.2. Index flood
6.2.1. Median annual maximum flood Qmed
The hydrological analysis approach is similar to that used in the rainfall analysis (Section 5), and is concerned with identifying the spatial distribution of a low return period flood (index flood) and the relationship between the index flood and floods of other magnitudes (growth curve).
The Average Annual Maximum Flood (Qbar) has typically been used as the index flood in Ireland, in accordance with the FSR. However, hydrological practitioners now have a strong preference for using the Median Annual Flood (Qmed) in place of Qbar, as the estimate is not as susceptible to the inclusion or omission of isolated extreme flood events. The Qmed estimate is therefore potentially more accurate from shorter data records than Qbar. The UK FEH adopts Qmed as the standard index flood.
Qmed is defined as the flood that is expected to occur or be exceeded, on average, every other year.. In statistical terms the flood is said to occur or be exceeded on average once every two years and have a 50% probability of annual exceedance.
For the Lee CFRAMS, all Qmed estimates are either derived directly from hydrometric station records (gauged catchments), or inferred from nearby hydrometric station records to catchments without hydrometric records (ungauged catchments).
6.2.2. Gauged catchments
The FEH (Vol 3 Section 2.2) recommends that annual maximum records greater than 14 years be used for Qmed estimation, below which peak over threshold records should be used.
Much of the Lee catchment hydrometric record available is as annual maximum floods manually derived from chart records. Peak over threshold (POT) data is limited to gauges with continuous data records, often comprising of five years record. Based on data availability, this study has slightly deviated from FEH guidelines and derived gauged Qmed
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estimates from all hydrometric records exceeding 10 years and accounted for increased uncertainty from records less than 14 years in the confidence limit analysis presented in Section 6.2.4.
Hydrometric data records were manually reviewed for data gaps and consistency to nearby gauges. Where gaps existed, all nearby hydrometric records were reviewed to ascertain whether the gap may have missed the annual maximum event. Where the gap was deemed to be inconsequential the gauge hydrological year was accepted as valid. If the gap was deemed to potentially contain an annual maximum event, the gauge hydrological year data was omitted from the analysis. An audit trail was maintained of data omitted and the rationale.
Qmed was found to vary between 17.5m3/s on the smaller Owenboy catchment (Gauge 19001) and 218m3/s on the Lee downstream of the Inishcarra hydroelectric dam (Gauge 19013) (Table 6-3). The FSR suggests that the index flood tends to a non-linear relationship with catchment area, and regression analysis suggested that Qbar can be proportional to A0.77 (where A equals catchment area). Figure 6-3 illustrates the Lee Qmed values indexed to A0.77/10, within the context of measured Qmed throughout the greater southwest region. A visual comparison suggests that many of the Lee Qmed records are consistent with the runoff trends observed throughout the region (broadly 8-23), with the exception of the Owenboy 19001 gauge, where the Qmed would appear to be half of the anticipated flow in relation to other records. Furthermore, Section 6.2.3 suggests that the runoff parameters calibrated to the gauge are 50% of the FSR catchment characteristic values for the catchment.
No apparent explanation is available for the lower Qmed values for the gauge at 19001:
• A rating review was undertaken of the gauge as part of this study, suggesting that the level-flow relationship is appropriate;
• Review of historical flood levels recorded at the gauge suggest that it should not be unduly influenced by the upstream arch bridge or flows bypassing on the low road on the left bank;
• Detailed EPA/Teagasc soil maps do not suggest lower runoff parameters within the Owenboy catchment in relation to other Lee catchments;
• Calibration of the hydraulic model and flood mapping from design flows suggest that the flows represent historical anecdotal evidence of flooding. It is interesting to note that Cork County Council staff have indicated that preliminary 1 in 10 year flood extent mapping may over estimate flooding at Ballygarvan, suggesting that the flow records are not unduly low. Also, the growth curve derived from the gauged record is both consistent with the average study growth and the standard FSR Ireland growth curve.
This report acknowledges that an unresolved apparent discrepancy may exist at the 19001 gauge; however the hydrometric record remains the most accurate depiction of runoff at the location. It is recommended that the OPW consider the installation of a temporary recorder nearby on the Owenboy to facilitate confirmation of recorded flood flows in subsequent revisions of the Lee CFRAMS.
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Figure 6-3 Regional Qmed Relationship (77.0
10
A
Qmed)
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Table 6-3 Gauged Qmed
Station
Reference
Watercourse Gauge Qmed
(m3/s)
Record Length
(yr)
19001 Owenboy Ballea 17.4 31
19006 Glashaboy Glanmire 37.7 16
19011 Lee Upper Leemount
208.6 55
19012 Lee Lower Leemount
185.3 38
19013 Lee Inniscarra 218.5 61
19014 Lee Dromcarra 71.8 20
19015 Shournagh Healy's Bridge 70.5 28
19016 Bride Owens 29.5 8
19018 Shournagh Tower 70.2 20
19020 Owennacurra Ballyedmond 22.5 23
19031 Sullane Macroom 141.7 11
6.2.3. Ungauged catchments
Estimates of the index flood for ungauged catchments are derived using the FEH donor catchment approach in conjunction with the FSR unit hydrograph method. The FEH donor catchment method is based on scaling runoff parameters at gauged catchments to match statistically derived flow and then inferring the proportion of scaling used to ungauged catchments. Regional scaling of FSR derived ungauged catchments was also recommended prior to the FEH, as discussed in Cunnane and Lynn 1975 (Section 5.5). By calibrating the scale parameters at gauged catchments, the method ensures that all flow estimates are either directly obtained from actual flood records or inferred from flood records. Figure 6-4 illustrates the donor catchment methodology used and Section 6.5.3 and Appendix D provide further explanation of the FSR unit hydrograph method.
Figure 6-5 outlines the gauged and ungauged catchments and SPR scale parameters derived in this study. SPR scale parameters follow a spatial trend with catchments to the north of the River Lee experiencing 7%-50% greater runoff characteristics than that suggested by the FSR catchment characteristics method. Conversely, catchments to the south of the River Lee experience a 12%-50% reduction in runoff characteristics.
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Figure 6-4 Ungauged catchment methodology
Develop Unit Hydrograph
Boundary
SPR and Tp values from
Catchment
Characteristics
Develop Unit Hydrograph
Boundary
Use calibrated scale factors to
scale SPR and Tp
Design flow calibrated to
gauged catchment
Gauged Catchment Ungauged Catchment
Design flow equals
statistical flow
Scale SPR and Tp
SPR and Tp values from
Catchment
Characteristics
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Figure 6-5 Applied catchment SPR scale factors for the study
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6.2.4. Qmed confidence limits
Alternative Qmed confidence limit methods are used, depending on if the estimate is based on a gauged record, or if it is an ungauged catchment.
The confidence levels of Qmed estimates from gauged records are directly linked to the length of the gauged record and the degree of variation within the record. These confidence limits have been calculated directly using the methodology outlined in the FEH.
However, the confidence levels of ungauged Qmed estimates are difficult to define. Based on the FEH donor catchment method used the confidence would be linked to:
• Accuracy of the inferred gauge record;
• Relative spatial accuracy of the catchment characteristics;
• Accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model used.
As the method is effectively calibrated to gauged records, inaccuracies from the rainfall-runoff model should be minimised, thereby suggesting that dominant uncertainties are from the underlying gauged record and the relative catchment characteristic accuracy.
The derivation of study specific rainfall characteristics from a dense rain gauge network suggests that the rainfall inputs (M5-2Day, AAR and Jenkinson’s ratio) are high. However the FSR Ireland Winter Rain Acceptance Potential mapping offers only a broad depiction of regional soil parameters. In comparison to the recently released Teagasc/EPA soil maps, the FSR mapping suggests a much lower spatial variability in drainage potential across the study area. The FSR mapping does identify some isolated areas of high runoff potential not identified in the Teagasc/EPA mapping, suggesting that the FSR mapping may have identified some additional visible land features.
Ungauged Qmed confidence limits have been estimated based on the spatial variability in the SPR scale factor:
• The SPR scale factor is determined for a gauged catchment;
• The SPR scale factor is then recalculated for the gauged catchment as if the gauged record was not present;
• The ratio of the flows between the two methods offer an estimate of the possible errors that might be inherent for an ungauged estimate in the vicinity of the gauged catchment.
This method apportions a greater level of uncertainty to areas of high spatial variability. Not surprisingly, the catchments in the vicinity of the greatest and lowest scale parameters exhibited the greatest variability, with the Sullane, Upper Lee and Owenboy catchments having an error of 45%, 44% and 39% respectively from their gauged Qmed estimate. The spatial uncertainty attributable to the Owenboy catchment does not become apparent in the analysis due to the low weighting provided to this gauge to ungauged catchment estimates outside of the Owenboy catchment. The low weighting was due to uncertainty in the representativeness of the catchment to other catchments in the study area. Conversely areas of low spatial variability in the northern and eastern extent of the study area, the Bride, Owenacurra and Glashaboy were found to have very low errors of 6%, 3% and 6% respectively.
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Ungauged catchment confidence limits were then determined by adding the confidence level from the inferred donor catchment(s).
Figure 6-6 Study Qmed 95 percentile confidence limits
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Figure 6-6 compiles gauged and ungauged Qmed 95%ile confidence limits for each catchment. Based on these values the average study wide catchment area upper 95%ile confidence limit for Qmed is 1.41. Section 6.5.4 presents recommended design flow confidence limits and Section 8.6 discusses the use of confidence limits in the Lee CFRAMS.
6.3. Pooled hydrology growth curve
6.3.1. Growth curve rationale
Various debate has been held in Ireland as to the appropriateness of the FSR Ireland Growth Curve. Bruen et al 2005 suggest that the Flood Studies Report significantly underpredicts extreme flows in the Dublin and Mid Eastern Region, yet Cawley et al 2003 suggest that the FSR Ireland growth curve overpredicts extreme flows for all regions, including the East of Ireland.
Based on current uncertainty in the FSR Ireland growth curve, a statistical analysis of flow records in the Lee has been undertaken to clarify the appropriateness of the FSR growth curve. Section 6.3.2 outlines the statistical distribution used in the analysis and Section
6.3.3 the derived study growth curve.
6.3.2. Statistical distribution
The hydrological statistical analysis undertaken is based on the L-Moments distribution fitting techniques presented in the FEH and Hosking et al 1997. The statistical analysis using L-Moments is described in further detail in Appendix D2.
Utilising the L-Moments technique to the study data sets, the most representative distribution is determined by the proximity of site L-Moment ratios to the theoretical distribution. Figure 6-7 illustrates that most of the site L-Moment ratios, including the study weighted average (weighted based on gauge record length) are in a closer proximity to the theoretical GEV distribution as opposed to GL. On this basis, the GEV distribution was found to be the most appropriate distribution for the analysis of the Lee catchment. This finding appears to be consistent with ongoing research being undertaken by the Flood Studies Update researchers on catchments throughout Ireland.
Due to the potential influence of the operation of the hydroelectric reservoirs on the distribution of extreme flows, it is proposed that averaged L-Moment ratios excluding the downstream Lee gauges (19013, 19012 and 19011) are used.
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GL
GEV
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
L-Skewness
L-K
urt
osis
Study Averaged (Total) Study Averaged (Without Gauges D/S of Reservoirs)
Figure 6-7 Hydrometric gauge L-Moment ratio diagram compared with theoretical GEV and GL distributions
6.3.3. Growth curve
The growth curve has been derived by undertaking the statistical analysis at individual stations and pooling (averaging) the underlying statistical properties (L-Moments). This approach mitigates against spatial dependence influences that could have been apparent if a station-year statistical approach was used.
The study averaged L-Moment ratios (Figure 6-7) form the basis of the inputs to the GEV study growth curve. Figure 6-8 compiles annual maximum records from all analysed hydrometric gauges in relation to the derived study growth and the standard FSR Ireland growth curve. Of note is the close proximity of the derived study growth curve with the FSR Ireland growth curve, suggesting that the FSR Ireland growth curve is appropriate for use for events in excess of that supported by the statistical record.
However, significant outliers do exist to the study average growth curve. In particular gauges 19012 (Lee @ Leemount Lower), 19014 (Lee @ Dromcarra) and 19006 (Glashaboy @ Glanmire) all suggest a growth curve well in excess of the study growth. Conversely 19011 (Lee @ Leemount Upper) and 19018 (Shournagh @ Tower) tend significantly flatter than the study average.
Although the Lee gauges downstream of the hydroelectric reservoir (19013, 19012 and 19011) are not of direct interest in developing the study growth curve, their divergence from the study average trend may be indicative of the influence of the reservoir operation. In relation to the 19013 and 19012 gauges, the 19011 malfunctioned (gap, visible chart discrepancy or inconsistent with flows at other gauges) for 7 out of the top 15 events recorded
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by the 19012 gauge, and has omitted the three highest recorded events on the Lee. The omissions have the effect of causing lesser events to be plotted as a high return due to the long length of record period. Conversely the period of record of the 19012 gauge omits long periods of middle range events recorded by the 19013 and 19011 gauges. The record starts 9 years (1958) after the 19011 gauge and 15 years (1964) after the 19013 gauge and also omits records between 1994 and 2000. An approximate correlation can be obtained with the 19013 gauged record (r2=0.62), allowing an indicative extension of the record. Based on the extended record the estimated Q100/Qmed ratio reduces from 2.74 to 2.19 (10% above the study growth curve).
Similarly, three of the highest five events, including the highest recorded event in November 2000 appear to have been missed in the 19018 record in relation to the downstream 19015 gauge, explaining the flatter curve. Likewise the relatively short and recent records of the 19006 and 19014 gauges (16 and 20 years respectively) appear to skew recent extreme flood events to shorter return periods. For example, the 11 May 2000 event was classified as a 1 in 10 year event at the 19006 gauge based on 16 years of record, but as a 1 in 50 and 1 in 41 year event on the longer nearby 19015 and 19020 gauges.
2 5 10 20 50 100
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 1 2 3 4 5
Logistic Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fact
or (Q
/Qm
ed)
FSR Growth Curve for Ireland
Study Growth Curve
19001
19006
19011
19012
19013
19014
19015
19016
19018
19020
19031
Figure 6-8 Site indexed annual maximum floods compared with pooled growth curve and the FSR Ireland growth curve
While considerable scatter does exist from the study growth curve, the scatter appears to be attributable to period of record rather than spatial variation in growth curve patterns or influence of the operation of the hydroelectric reservoirs. On this basis, it is proposed that one indicative study growth curve would be appropriate for the study area. The pooling
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approach used provides a weighting based on length of record at the gauges, ensuring that outliers attributable to short records have a lower influence on the overall curve.
Figure 6-9 illustrates the 95%ile confidence limits of the pooled growth curve. The confidence interval is a function of the length of data record, variability between data records and the return period. The confidence limits have been derived by a Monte Carlo sampling with a sample size of 10,000 in accordance with the techniques outlined in Hosking et al 1997.
The FEH recommends that a pooling group with a data record of five times the return period is used. However, the FEH recommendation is based on existence and access to a substantial national flood record. Where a single site analysis is undertaken, the FSR recommends that return periods should only be extrapolated up to twice the length of the record.
As all of the pooled gauges are contained within the study area, they could be considered to be both operating as a single site gauge and a pooled gauge. The total record used, excluding gauges on the Lee downstream of the reservoirs is 157 years, with an average data record of 20 years. Therefore, based on the FSR single site analysis, a return period of 1 in 40 years would be supported from the data record. However, the derivation of confidence limits allows for a greater return period to be derived, if the confidence limit is considered appropriate.
Based on close correlation with the FSR Ireland growth curve for return periods less than 50 years and the accurate confidence limit (upper 95%le limit at 15%), the study pooled growth curve is used for estimates less than 50 years and the FSR Ireland growth curve for all estimates above. In turn, the containment of the FSR Ireland growth curve within the study pooled 95%le confidence limits confirms the appropriateness of the FSR Ireland growth curve to the study.
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Pooled Growth Curve Pooled 95%ile FSR Growth Curve
Figure 6-9 Pooled growth curve and 95%ile confidence limits in relation to FSR Ireland growth curve
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Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Study Growth Curve Study 95%le
Figure 6-10 Study growth curve with 95%ile confidence limit
Table 6-4 Study growth factors
Return Period Y (GEV) Study QT/Qmed FSR QT/Qmed
2 0.4 1.0 1.0
5 1.5 1.3 1.3
10 2.3 1.5 1.4
20 3.0 1.7 1.6
50 3.9 1.8 1.9
100 4.6 2.1 2.1
200 5.3 2.3 2.3
1000 6.9 2.7 2.7
It is debatable whether the confidence limit for return periods greater than 1 in 50 year should be the FSR Ireland or the study growth confidence limits. This study has adopted the confidence limit derived from the study data as the study growth curve limits provide direct consideration of flood variability within the catchment.
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Appendix D contains further details of the growth curve analysis undertaken at individual gauges.
6.4. Calibration hydrology
6.4.1. Introduction
Model calibration, where data supports this, is achieved through carrying out simulations of recorded flood events and then inferring adjustments to the hydraulic model parameters through the comparison of observed and modelled results. Often the variables are quite interdependent, but are also not necessarily constant between event periods, so more than one event will be used to provide a comparison and an indication of parameter variability. Calibration depends on several factors, such as:
• The amount of data available for each event;
• The reliability of the recorded data sets; and
• The extent of suitable event records.
The use of more recent events is preferred, particularly where changes have been made to the river. To support this approach a total of six events were initially selected for possible calibration/verification purposes with four of the events occurring within the last seven years (as detailed in Section 4.4).
Although there is a relatively good spread of data recording points available within the Lee catchment, it was found that the data availability from these gauges was poor. To enhance the calibration process a variety of historical sources of information were sought, including:
• Full review of available flood reports and information from the OPW website and other sources. Appendix A and B detail the data collection and record of documents reviewed and flood information obtained.
• Meetings were held with Local Authority Area Engineers to inform on past flood
events. • As part of the channel and cross section survey, the surveyors liaised with the Local
Authority Area Engineers to obtain local information on any additional areas where historic flood levels could be surveyed during the Lee survey – no further advice was given to the surveyors on historic flood levels.
• There was limited detailed information available through the reports in terms of water levels, exact flood locations and detailed flood mechanisms. Using the limited information the team pieced together (using a GIS shape file layer per river, per event) locations where bridges surcharged, flows were noted to go out of bank, etc. This was supplied to the hydraulic modellers to allow a further ‘check’ on areas where spilling/surcharging should be expected from the hydraulic models.
• More recent flood events were documented by the project team, for example the 2006 event. A site visit was undertaken and a technical note written on the event, including a map of the estimated flood extent.
Full details describing the suitability of each proposed calibration event, for each model, are included in Sections 6.4.3 to 6.4.6. The results of the model calibration will be reported on in the Hydraulics Report.
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6.4.2. Flow distribution approach
Where a flow gauge was located near the downstream end of the catchment, distribution throughout the catchment via a flow per unit area approach was adopted. Where gauges were located in the upper catchment (such as gauge 19020 on the Owennacurra) or where some sub-catchments were ungauged (such as the Curragheen River subcatchment) an infilling technique was used to account for flow in these areas. This utilised the rainfall distribution for the event based on generating rainfall contours for all available rain gauges for the event. The distribution was based on two steps:
(i) Estimation of ratio of un-gauged sub-catchment areas to gauged area.
(ii) Analysis of rainfall distribution for the event and estimation of average rainfall per sub-catchment area in order to establish a scaling factor.
This detailed analysis allowed the distribution of flow throughout the Lower Lee catchment to be estimated with more confidence.
6.4.3. Upper Lee
August 1986
Inflow boundary
ESB data for the 1986 calibration event was digitised for two gauges (19031 and 19027) on the Sullane and Laney respectively. The data available for this event was limited and of poor quality. No information on the peak stage is available for gauge 19031 because the chart was submerged during the event. The peak was therefore estimated and the recession curve calculated by scaling the recession curve from a previous event. No information is available for the upper Lee gauge 19014 for this event. However, the report written on the River Lee flood of 5 & 6 August 1986 has been used to further inform the 1986 flood event in the upper Lee catchment. Charts from the report showing the inflow, outflow, and water levels of the Carrigadrohid and Inishcarra reservoirs have been used to inform the integration of the hydrology for this event to the hydraulic model. Several of the graphs from the report have subsequently been digitised to aid in the calibration of this river reach.
Downstream boundary
The downstream extent of the upper Lee model is represented by the operation of the reservoirs. Information from the ESB report on the 1986 flood event was used to inform the total discharge from the reservoir, composed of two components; the flow through the turbines and flow through the spills.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against: the water level and flow at gauge locations, the recorded reservoir levels and by using historic information on which areas were known to have flooded based on anecdotal evidence.
December 2006
Inflow boundary
There is no flow data available for flow gauge 19031 on the Sullane for this event. Flow data is available for flow gauge 19014 on the Laney. Extensive written information and flood
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mapping is available for the flooding in Baile Mhic Ire and Baile Bhuirne. With such records of the flooding extent available it is an ideal calibration event to use.
Therefore, to overcome the lack of flow data and make the most use of the recorded flood extent, it was decided to obtain rainfall data for the upper Lee catchment and use this, along with catchment area, to infill the flow in gauge 19031 from gauge 19014.
Rainfall data was obtained for two rain gauges in both the Sullane (19031) and Laney (19014) catchments:
• Macroom – Curraleigh (19031)
• Coolea – Milleens (19031)
• Gouganebarra (19014)
• Ballingeary (Voc. Sch) (19014)
An average of the daily rainfall data for the December event was obtained for each of the 19031 and 19014 catchments respectively. This was used along with the catchment area to obtain a relationship between the gauges. The 19031 gauge was found to be 1.15 greater than the 19014 gauge. This information was used to infill gauge 19031 and subsequently the 2006 event was able to be used for calibration purposes.
Downstream boundary
The downstream boundary does not influence the gauging station location, therefore a generic boundary was used. This consisted of undertaking sensitivity to the water level downstream to check there was no influence at the site and adopting an arbitrary water level.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated using the detailed technical note produced by Halcrow following the December 2006 flood event for the area which suffered from flooding, Baile Mhic Íre (ref: TN007.SiteVisitNotes_FloodingDecember2006.PD.doc). .
6.4.4. Lower Lee
November 2002
Inflow boundary
Recorded flow data is available for flow gauge 19011 (Lee), 19012 (Lee), 19013 (Lee), 19015 (Shournagh) and 19016 (Bride (south of River Lee)). No flow data is available for flow gauge 19018 on the Shournagh. The gauges are spread amongst the lower Lee catchment and it is felt that adopting a flow per unit area approach based on the flow at these gauges is sufficient to distribute the flow amongst the catchment. For the Lower Lee ungauged sub-catchment areas (lowlee5-lowlee10 and lowlee13) a scaling based on the rainfall and area relationship with other local gauges was used.
Differences in flow readings were noted between the hydroelectric reservoir outflow records (composed of spill releases and turbine releases) and flow gauge 19013 (situated immediately downstream of the reservoir). The reservoir daily load report sheets logging releases were used within the calibration event as these were felt to be more representative of the flow in the river immediately downstream of the dam.
Downstream boundary
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A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model. The model was run using recorded tidal data to produce a tidal boundary at the downstream boundary of the river model.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against the water level and flow at gauge locations, particularly 19015, 19016 and 19012, and by using historic information on the extent and nature of flooding in specific areas.
October 2004
Inflow boundary
Recorded flow data is available for flow gauges 19011, 19012, 19013 on the Lee and 19016 on the Bride (south of River Lee). No flow data is available for flow gauges 19015 or 19018 on the Shournagh. As for the 2002 event, the gauges are spread amongst the lower Lee catchment and it is felt that adopting a flow per unit area approach based on the flow at these gauges is sufficient to distribute the flow amongst the catchment. For the lower Lee ungauged sub-catchment areas (lowlee5-lowlee10 and lowlee13) a scaling based on the rainfall and area relationship with other local gauges is used.
There was no record made available of flow releases from Inishcarra reservoir. As this event is a tidal event, it is assumed that the tidal conditions will have driven the flooding and that the fluvial input will be secondary. Therefore a nominal flow of 80m3/s has been adopted as the release from the reservoir into the lower Lee. This magnitude is supported by the ESB Regulations & Guidelines for the Control of the River Lee.
Downstream boundary
A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model. The model was run using recorded tidal data to produce a tidal boundary at the downstream boundary of the river model.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against the water level and flow at gauge locations, particularly gauge 19016 and 19012, and by using historic information on where flooding was recorded as having occurred.
December 2006
Inflow boundary
Recorded flow data is available for flow gauges 19011 (Lee), 19015 on the Shournagh and 19016 on the Bride (south of River Lee). No flow data is available for flow gauges 19012, 19013 on the Lee or the other gauge on the Shournagh (19018). As for the other events, the gauges are distributed around the lower Lee catchment and it is felt that adopting a flow per unit area approach based on the flow at these gauges is sufficient to distribute the flow amongst the catchment. For the lower Lee ungauged sub-catchment areas (lowlee5-lowlee10 and lowlee13) a scaling based on the area relationship with other local gauges was used. No rainfall data was available for this event so the rainfall scaling factor has been assumed as 1.0. As for the November 2002 event, the reservoir logged releases were used within the calibration event in place of flow data from gauge 19013.
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Downstream boundary
A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model. The model was run using recorded tidal data to produce a tidal boundary at the downstream boundary of the river model.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against: the water level and flow at gauge locations, particularly gauges 19015, 19016 and 19011. The model will also be calibrated against recorded water level data from the waterworks weir in Cork City and by using historic information on which areas were known to have flooded.
6.4.5. Glashaboy
November 2002
Inflow boundary
The available flow data came from flow gauge 19006 on the Glashaboy, which is located in the lower catchment.
Downstream boundary
A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model for this event based on recorded levels in Cork Harbour.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against: the water level and flow at the gauging station location and by using anecdotal information on flooding that occurred during the event.
October 2004
Inflow & downstream boundaries
As for the 2002 event, the available flow data came from flow gauge 19006 and a tidal boundary was extracted from the Cork Harbour model.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against the water level and flow at the gauging station location and by using historic information on the extent and nature of the flooding.
6.4.6. Owennacurra
November 2000
Flow boundary
The available flow data came from flow gauge 19020 on the Owennacurra, which is located in the upper catchment (representing an area of approximately 45% catchment area).
Downstream boundary
It was not possible to obtain a tidal boundary for this event from the Cork Harbour model as there is no electronic tidal record available for this time period. Without a record of the actual
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water levels in the harbour there is no way of knowing what the surge, and thus the actual water level, was at that time. However as this event was a fluvial flood event rather than tidal a generic tidal boundary is being used and sensitivity analysis will be carried out to assess any potential impact on the predicted water levels in the river model.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against historic information on which areas were known to have flooded along the Owennacurra.
October 2004
Flow boundary
The available flow data came from flow gauge 19020 located in the upper catchment of the Owennacurra.
Downstream boundary
A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model for this event based on recorded levels in Cork Harbour.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against historic information on the extent of flooding in the catchment.
6.4.7. Owenboy
November 2002
Inflow boundary
The available flow data came from flow gauge 19001 on the Owenboy, which is located in the lower catchment.
Downstream boundary
A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model for this event based on recorded levels in Cork Harbour.
Observed information
The model is being calibrated against the water level and flow at the gauging station location and using the available information on historic flooding along the Owenboy.
October 2004
Inflow boundary
The available flow data came from flow gauge 19001 on the Owenboy, which is located in the very downstream catchment.
Downstream boundary
A tidal boundary including surge was extracted from the Cork Harbour model for this event based on recorded levels in Cork Harbour.
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Observed information
The model is being calibrated against the water level and flow at the gauging station location and by using historic information on which areas were known to have flooded in the catchment.
6.4.8. Summary of calibration/verification events
Table 6-5 summarises the calibration/verification events suitable for use following a review of the flow data and supplementary information. For many events, in particular on the Lee main channel, it is apparent that there is not consistent flow gauging information available for all events. Table 6-6 details the respective flow gauges and the availability of data per event. Despite the lack of data it was possible, via the use of infilling using rainfall data for example, to produce two calibration/verification events for each river model. Some of the events represent flooding throughout a river reach, where as others represent a specific area in the catchment, for example Baile Mhic Íre on the Sullane in the upper Lee catchment in December 2006. Using techniques to utilise as much of the available flow and rainfall data as possible, has allowed for crucial recorded flood extents in urban areas to be utilised. This approach has led to a reduced level of uncertainty in the hydraulic modelling.
Table 6-5: Actual calibration/verification events for the Lee and tributaries
River Model Aug 1986 (Fluvial)
Nov 2000 (Fluvial)
Nov 2002 (Fluvial)
Oct 2004 (Tidal)
Dec 2006 (Fluvial)
Upper Lee ���� ����
Lower Lee ���� ���� ����
Glashaboy ���� ����
Owennacurra ���� ����
Owenboy ���� ����
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Table 6-6: Detail of availability of flow gauge data for calibration events
Flow gauge
Model Aug 1986 Nov 2000 Nov 2002 Oct 2004 Dec 2006
19001 Owenboy ���� ����
19006 Glashaboy ���� ����
19011 Lower Lee ���� ���� ����
19012 Lower Lee ���� ���� 0
19013 Lower Lee ���� ���� 0
19014 Upper Lee 0 ����
19015 Lower Lee ���� 0 ����
19016 Lower Lee ���� ���� ����
19018 Lower Lee 0 0 0
19020 Owennacurra ���� ����
19031 Upper Lee ���� 0
(Key: ���� Data available 0 Data not available)
6.5. Design hydrology
6.5.1. Unit hydrograph
The FSR unit hydrograph technique enables the use of study specific unit hydrographs. This flexibility allows for incorporation of hydrograph shape and response characteristics that are representative of the study catchment characteristics. Development of study unit hydrographs are limited to gauged catchments with rainfall patterns that may be represented by those recorded at the two hourly rain gauges (Cork Airport and Roches Point (pre 1994)). Given the few gauged catchments falling in to this criteria (19001 - Owenboy and 19016 - Bride), the spatial validity of the hourly rain gauge record was extended by developing event two day isohyetal plots, and scaling the gauge hyetograph. This technique refined the derived unit hydrographs from 19001 and 19016, and facilitated the development of unit hydrographs at Owennacurra (19020).
At least three events were extracted and averaged for each gauge, rebased to units consistent with the standard FSR unit hydrograph parameters and plotted together with the FSR (Figure 6-11). It is worth noting that considerable variation in the unit hydrograph peak exists for alternative events considered at each gauge (+/- 60%) and alternative gauge averages across the study area (+/- 65%). However the FEH donor catchment technique used in this study ensures that hydrographs are calibrated to gauge statistical record and are not directly sensitive to unit hydrograph peak. The study derived unit hydrographs do however provide a depiction of hydrograph shape, which is particularly critical for inflows to the hydroelectric reservoirs.
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The FEH donor catchment techniques used in this study require the adoption of one averaged study unit hydrograph. Without the common unit hydrograph the spatial distribution of the SPR and Tp scale parameters would not be feasible.
Despite the large variation in unit hydrograph peak, the study average peak is close to the FSR peak (within 13%). However, the shape of the study hydrograph has a narrower peak than the FSR, and longer recession. This variation could be due to over simplification of the FSR unit hydograph (three points as opposed to the more realistic five points used here), which has been rectified in the recently published FEH Supplementary Report 1 (CEH, 2007).
The study average unit hydrograph is considered to reflect the broad hydrograph shape characteristics experienced in the study area, and on this basis has been used in the generation of design flows.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
T/Tp
Up
.Tp
(m
3/s
.hr/
10cm
/km
2)
19001
19016
19020
FSR
Study Average
Figure 6-11 Averaged Unit Hydrographs at Lee Hydrometric Gauges Compared with Flood Studies Report Unit Hydrograph
6.5.2. Storm - flood return period relationship
One inherent difficulty with a rainfall runoff approach is while the model can be calibrated to match statistical derived design floods at a defined return period (or in the case of this study the index flood Qmed), the model does not automatically guarantee that rainfall-runoff derived flood peaks match the statistically derived floods for different return periods. The FSR approached the discrepancy by defining an averaged relationship between flood return period and storm return period (FSR Figure I6.54) where recommended FSR catchment characteristics are used. However, within the seven catchments considered by the FSR, considerable variation existed. For example, the FSR found that the 50 year flood was produced from storm return periods ranging between 60 and 128 years, averaged at 81 years.
Rigid application of the FSR relationship ignores regional growth curve differences, particularly relevant in the case of FSR application in Ireland (UK rainfall growth curves used in conjunction with Ireland regional flood growth curve) or in the case of this study, where study specific rainfall and flood growth curves have been developed. The discrepancy between rainfall and hydrology growth curves has been addressed in this study by defining a
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study specific growth curve relationship (Table 6-7). Further discussion on the altering of the growth curve relationship is provided in Appendix D2.
An increased divergence between study and FSR storm-flood return periods is apparent for flood return periods greater than 50 year. This divergence is attributable to variation and limited sample of the underlying FSR data, variance between the FSR catchment sample and the Lee Catchment and the use of an alternative rainfall and flow growth curve combination.
Table 6-7 Study flood-storm return period relationship compared with the Flood Studies Report
Storm Return Period (yr)
Flood Return
Period (yr) Recommended
Study
Flood Studies
Report
2 2 -
5 8 8
10 17 17
50 56 80
100 98 140
200 173 -
1000 578 1000
6.5.3. FSR unit hydrograph analysis
All design flow hydrographs were derived using the FSR unit hydrograph method, including formula revisions recommended in the Flood Studies Supplementary Report 16. The parameters used, analysis and results are outlined in further detail in Appendix D.
Deviations to the FSR unit hydrograph method were made where both site data facilitated a further refinement to standard FSR parameters and where subsequent developments in hydrological techniques warrant an alternative approach (Sections 6.2.3, 6.5.1 and 6.5.2).
Subcatchment characteristics were found to be broadly similar throughout the study area (Figures 6-12 to 6-15). In general, most subcatchments are small rural catchments characterised by the FSR as low runoff material. While the calibration of the runoff parameters through the donor catchment approach suggests that the FSR soil runoff is overly simplistic, the total catchment area averaged SPR values are still broadly consistent between the two methods.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0-25 25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150-175 175-200 200-225 225-250 250-275
Cat chment Ar ea ( km 2 )
Figure 6-12 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on sub catchment area.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0-0.05 0.05-
0.1
0.1-
0.15
0.15-
0.2
0.2-
0.25
0.25-
0.3
0.3-
0.35
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0.4
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0.45
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0.5-
0.55
0.55-
0.6
0.6-
0.65
0.65-
0.7
0.7-
0.75
Ur ban Fr act i on
Figure 6-13 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on urban fraction
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80
Uncal i br at ed SP R ( %)
Figure 6-14 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on SPR (before donor catchment scaling)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80
Cal i br at ed SP R
Figure 6-15 Sub catchment unit hydrograph catchment characteristics based on SPR (after donor catchment scaling).
Table D18 in Appendix D summarises the peak flow predicted at all subcatchments for the existing, mid range and high end future scenarios respectively (refer to Section 8.4.5 for discussion on the future scenarios). Design flows are provided for the critical storm duration in Table D19, and full hydrographs for a range of durations in the electronic data DVDs supplied with the report.
6.5.4. Design flow confidence limits
The design flow confidence limit is both a function of the Qmed uncertainty and the growth curve uncertainty. The confidence limit can vary spatially based on whether the estimate is from a gauged or ungauged catchment (Section 6.2) and with return period (Section 6.3.2).
For most applications, it will be sufficient to use the study average Qmed 95%ile confidence limit of 1.41 (Section 6.2.4), with the appropriate return period confidence limit. Figure 6-9 indicates that the close proximity of the FSR Ireland growth curve with the upper 95%ile confidence limit results in little variation in the confidence scale factor. Where inclusion of the 95%ile confidence limit is required in flood estimates (for example, Section 50 applications), it is recommended that design flows provided in this study are scaled by an average factor of 1.52.
Section 8.6 outlines the recommendations for the inclusion of confidence scale factors in the Lee CFRAMS.
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Table 6-8 Confidence limit scaling factor
Annual Exceedance Probability
Return Period (year)
Upper 95%ile confidence limit
scale
50% 2 1.53
20% 5 1.50
10% 10 1.51
5% 20 1.52
2% 50 1.55
1% 100 1.52
0.5% 200 1.52
0.1% 1000 1.48
6.6. Sensitivity to changes in catchment parameters
Design flow rates are sensitive to changes in both catchment runoff parameters and rainfall parameters. Figures 6-16 to 6-19 illustrate the percentage change in maximum flow rate to a 20% change in catchment or rainfall parameters.
A 20% increase in SPR is predicted to result in a 7%-16% increase in design flow, with an increasing sensitivity in catchments with higher soil runoff conditions (Figure 6.16). Conversely, catchments with lower soil runoff conditions are particularly sensitive to changes in Catchment Wetness Index (CWI), with a 20% increase in CWI resulting in a 9%-24% increase in design flow (Figure 6.17). As could be expected, increases in the urban extent results in increases in design flow, with 20% proportional increases in existing partially urbanised catchments resulting in an increase in flow of 12% (Figure 6.19). As an indication of the sensitivity of the catchment to climate change, a 20% increase in design rainfall (M5-2Day) will result in an expected corresponding 20% increase in flow (Figure 6.18).
The sensitivity analysis found that design flows are highly sensitive to changes in design rainfall and catchment wetness index. The analysis undertaken has assisted in reducing the uncertainty associated with the design rainfall by undertaking a statistical analysis of meteorological records in the catchment and revising FSR rainfall contours. The FEH donor catchment approach used also assists in accounting for discrepancies in CWI within the SPR scale parameter.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Catchment SPR (%)
Incre
ase in
flo
w (
%)
Figure 6-16 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in SPR*
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Catchment SPR (%)
Incre
ase
in
flo
w (
%)
Figure 6-17 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in CWI*
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Catchment SPR (%)
Incre
ase
in
flo
w (
%)
Figure 6-18 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in M5-2Day rainfall*
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-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
Existing Urban Fraction
Incre
ase in
flo
w (
%)
Figure 6-19 Change in maximum design rainfall as a result of 20% change in urban fraction
* Plots are indexed to the catchment SPR value
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7. Integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling
7.1. Sub-catchment delineation
7.1.1. Introduction
The Lee catchment extends to approximately 2000km2 in area. In order to represent the hydrological processes in sufficient detail to enhance the hydraulic modelling outputs, it was necessary to sub-divide the catchment into smaller sub-catchment areas.
7.1.2. Approach
Using GIS software, Ordnance Survey Ireland (OSi) background maps and the hydrologically corrected DEM, the Lee catchment was further sub-divided. It was necessary to ascertain the downstream location of each of the sub-catchments required. This process was undertaken based on the knowledge of rural and urban watercourses; reservoir locations, hydraulic features, flow gauge locations and locations of significant tributaries. GIS tools allowed for the calculation of each of the respective sub-catchment areas which were then fed into the hydrological analysis. The sub-catchment boundaries were based on the following hypothesis:
(i) Boundaries to be fixed at flow gauges (being used in the study) and/or
(ii) Boundaries to be fixed at upstream of hydraulic models and/or downstream of urban areas
(iii) Boundaries to be fixed at strategic areas e.g. downstream of reservoirs, such as Inishcarra Dam
7.1.3. Sub-catchments
Figure 7-1 shows the 56 sub-catchment areas derived so as to provide detailed hydrological inputs into hydraulic models for the Lee CFRAMS. A table showing the reasoning behind the specific sub-catchment locations is included in Appendix E.
As shown on Figure 7-1, 32 sub-catchments will be used to derive detailed hydrological assessments; that is a design flow hydrograph will be produced for each of these 32 main subcatchments. To represent the hydrological processes in sufficient detail to allow integration with the hydraulic modelling it was necessary to further sub-divide some of the 32 main subcatchments resulting in an additional 24 subcatchments for which inflows are required. The inflows for each of these 24 subcatchments will be scaled from the design flows derived for the main subcatchment within which they are located. The scaling is based on both area and urban fraction. In some instances, the subcatchment flows are input into the hydraulic models as both point and lateral inflows resulting in a total of 108 inflow locations in the Lee catchment hydraulic models (not all lateral inflows are shown on Figure 7-1).
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Figure 7-1 Sub-catchment delineation
7.2. Hydraulic model inflows
7.2.1. Approach
To enhance the accuracy of the hydraulic modelling and flood mapping process, three types
of hydrological inflows were identified to be used to feed into the hydraulic models:
• Point inflows at upstream hydraulic model extents
• Point inflows at strategic locations throughout the catchment (e.g. tributaries, natural watercourses)
• Lateral inflows through urban areas (to represent surface water runoff) to allow the flow being fed through urban area watercourses to be modelled with more detail.
Utilising the GIS layering capabilities of separate spatial data sets it was possible to assess the integration of the catchment runoff with the topographical survey cross sections and the hydraulic model schematisation. Knowledge of the location of natural inflows from background maps and other information, such as the extent of rural and urban watercourses, allowed the identification of the respective hydraulic model cross section where the inflow was required. Using this information the hydrological analysis was made interdependent with the hydraulic modelling with details of inflow location, type of inflow and fraction of catchment represented by the inflow location. The information provided for the calibration models is included in Appendix E2. Further descriptions of the hydrology / hydraulic links will be provided in detail in the Hydraulics Report.
An example of the sub-catchment delineation and inflow location for the Owenboy catchment is shown in Figure 7-2. The Owenboy catchment is one of the 32 main subcatchments in the Lee catchment (Section 7.1.3) and has been further subdivided into ten subcatchments to
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allow representation of five tributaries and three urban areas as well as the upstream Owenboy catchment.
As shown on Figure 7-2, ten inflows are required to satisfy the hydraulic model requirements, based on the ten subcatchment areas.
Figure 7-2 Example of integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling for the Owenboy hydraulic model
7.2.2. Inflows
Table 7-1 lists the number of hydrographs and total number of inflows to be derived for each model.
Table 7-1 Breakdown of hydrographs and inflows per hydraulic model
Model Number
hydrographs
Number of sub-
catchment inflows
Number of inflow
locations*
1 – Owenboy 1 10 10
2 – Carrigtohill 2 4 8
3 – Owenacurra 3 6 9
4 – Glashaboy 3 5 10
5 – Upper Lee 8 8 20
6 – Tramore 1 5 8
7 – Bride 3 3 6
8 – Lower Lee 11 15 48
Total 32 56 119
* this includes lateral inflows with a count of 1 per reach of lateral inflows
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8. Future environmental and catchment changes
8.1. Introduction
There are a number of drivers that can influence future flood risk in the Lee catchment. These include changes in climate, land use and urban growth. As these are likely to change over time it is important to appreciate how the drivers could affect future flood risk across the catchment. To achieve this, it is necessary to test possible future scenarios to help in considering what protection levels may be required to protect against future flooding.
This section sets out the possible implications of climate change (Section 8.2), afforestation (Section 8.3) and urban development (Section 8.4) on the hydrological processes in the Lee catchment and proposes two future flood risk management scenarios (Section 8.5). Section
8.6 describes the two future scenarios adopted for use in the Lee CFRAMS.
The potential impact will be tested within the hydraulic models assessed as part of the Lee CFRAMS. The impacts of the future drivers on flood risk will be documented in the Lee CFRAMS Hydraulic Modelling Report
8.2. Climate change
8.2.1. Introduction
“Over the next half-century significant climate change can be anticipated in Ireland….Considerable uncertainty remains with respect to future climate conditions….however forward planning is needed now for adaptation to climate change in Ireland” (Sweeney et al, 2003).
“Our farmers, architects, engineers, planners and politicians will need to adjust to a changing climate regime to protect people and employment, to provide resources such as water and waste water treatment at economic cost, and to position Ireland to adapt to the climatic challenges which lie ahead” (Irish Committee on Climate Change, 2007).
One area where the impact of climate change needs to be considered is in the design of flood relief schemes and flood risk management measures as part of flood risk management policy in Ireland. Changes in sea level and rainfall depths and intensities could have significant implications for flood risk in Ireland and the subsequent design of flood risk management measures and relief schemes. Therefore it is sensible to design such schemes so as to incorporate climate change estimates and to allow for future adaptability.
The 2007 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report (McElwain and Sweeney, 2007) identifies the need for planning and action to avoid the worst effects of climate change impacts. The report highlights the need to predict the impacts of climate change at local, regional and national levels in order to enable adaptation strategies to be devised.
An extensive quantity of climate change research exists, both within the UK and specifically in Ireland. A climate change literature review was undertaken (Appendix F1) which considered a wide range of publications, including the latest work from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the 4th Assessment report (February 2007) and the subsequent Irish Committee on Climate Change report published by the Royal Irish Academy (RIA) (February 2007).
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The aim of the literature review was to provide a range of potential values for sea level rise (Section 8.2.3) and increase in precipitation (Section 8.2.4) within the Lee catchment area. These values will be used to inform the Lee CFRAMS and will be incorporated into potential catchment flood risk solutions, either directly within design levels or through providing future adaptability to defence solutions. The findings may also be used to inform future CFRAM studies in Ireland.
8.2.2. Guidance policy
Ireland
A single, rigid policy for the design of flood relief schemes and flood risk management measures, with respect to the impacts of potential changes in the climate, has not as yet been adopted by the OPW. A provisional policy is, however, in place, whereby the predicted increases in flows and / or water levels are to be included where possible.
The current OPW operational guidance note ‘Design Considerations of Possible Climate Change for Flood Risk Management Practice’ (2006) requires the following:
• Sea level rise: climate change allowance to be added to design levels in all tidal situations; an additional allowance is to be added on the South Coast for ground level movement. The allowance is to be considered as a component of the design water level and not as freeboard.
• Increase in flood flows:
a) Sensitivity-guided design - whereby the sensitivity of the design of a scheme to climate change is tested e.g. by testing the parameters subject to change, such as peak flow.
b) Design for enhancement - flood relief scheme designed so that defence levels / capacities can be increased / enhanced in the future.
c) Design for climate change – Flood relief works designed to cope with predicted future conditions.
The literature review by Bruen (2003) commissioned by the OPW looked at climate change on a regional scale in Ireland, particularly, likely change in river flows and extreme water levels in coastal areas, during the 21st century.
OPW are currently reviewing their climate change policy and a new policy document is likely to be published in 2008.
UK Defra guidance, England & Wales (2006)
Other policy information was sought from guidance policy recently adopted within the UK by the Department for Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra).
Defra has produced guidance on impacts of climate change for operating authorities (including Environment Agency, Local Authorities and Internal Drainage Boards). Several documents exist to inform climate change consideration: The Flood and Coastal Defence Project Appraisal Guidance - overview (FCDPAG1), sets out the basis for considering climate change; detailed sea level rise allowances are recommended in FCDPAG3; and FDCPAG4 also sets out advice on sensitivity testing.
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Supplementary guidance to FCDPAG3 (Defra, 2006) has been released to reflect most recent findings such as land movement and the effects of thermo-expansion of the sea. The guidance provides new allowances for sea level rise which should be used to determine base cases and options to be compared to the base case. Indicative sensitivity ranges for peak flows, extreme rainfall, extreme waves and winds are given which should be used to test the base case and options to determine how a decision is affected by climate change impacts.
A copy of the supplementary guidance to FCDPAG3 (Defra, 2006) is included as an appendix to this report (Appendix F2). Application of the recent policy to the Lee CFRAMS project has been included for completeness, in Tables 8-1 and 8-2 respectively.
8.2.3. Net sea level rise
The estimations of future net sea level change are based on two components: isostatic changes, which refer to adjustments in the absolute elevation of the land; and eustatic changes, which refer to variations in the absolute elevation of the sea surface caused by variations in the volume of the oceans. Together they are used to estimate net sea-level change, taking into account changes in both land and sea surface level (UKCIP, 2007).
Isostatic subsidence
Southern Ireland is undergoing isostatic subsidence in its recovery from the ice age. At present there is little information on land movement in the Irish context. Recent work in Dublin (Greater Dublin Strategic Drainage Study, 2005) includes estimates of land movement of -0.3mm/yr for the Dublin area. There is a CGPS (continuous global positioning system) receiver measuring land movement at Castletownbere which is in operation, on behalf of DAFF, since 2005. Due to the short period of record of this dataset, it was not considered for use in this study. It is recommended that future reviews should consider the data from this gauge.
Studies in the UK estimate the rate of vertical land movement as -0.5mm/yr in Wales and -1.0mm/yr for south west England (Shennan and Horton, 2002). The Defra guidance policy adopts a value of -0.5mm/yr for land movement for the south west of England and Wales collectively. This latest estimate of -0.5mm/yr is based upon the latest work by Shennan and Horton (2002).
Table 8-1 shows the magnitude of land subsidence that is estimated for three different future time horizons.
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Table 8-1 Land movement (cm) estimates applicable for the Lee CFRAMS from UK literature sources for three future time horizons (baseline for calculating land movement for a given year is taken from 1990).
Land subsidence (cm) Source Land
movement
(mm/yr)* 2050 2080 2100
Shennan and Horton (2002) – Wales -0.5 3.1 4.6 5.6
Shennan and Horton (2002) – SW England -1.0 6.1 9.1 11.1
Defra FCDPAG3 (2006) -0.5 3.1 4.6 5.6
* Negative represents subsidence
Details of the values adopted for use in this study are contained in Table 8-6 and Appendix
F.
Eustatic changes
Global and Ireland specific estimates of change in sea level are available from climate change literature. Table 8-2 shows the range of predicted increases in sea level for three different future time horizons.
It should be noted that all values of sea level rise given in Table 8-2 do not include land movement, except the Defra FCDPAG3 values.
The Defra estimates of global mean sea level up to 2080 are based on the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) (2001) High emissions scenario (A1FI). Projections post 2080 are based on an extrapolation of the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s global mean sea level estimates. The respective IPCC TAR global average sea level rise range, for the 2050s and 2080s respectively is, 9-36cm and 16-69cm.
These precautionary Defra allowances for global mean sea level rise will be reviewed in the light of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report and should be considered in future reviews of this study.
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Table 8-2 Sea level rise (cm) estimates applicable for the Lee CFRAMS from various UK and Irish literature sources for three future time horizons
Sea Level Rise (cm) Source
2050 2080 2100
Comment
IPCC (scenario A2)* 23 - 51 Global average sea level rise
IPCC (scenario A1F1)
26 - 59 Global average sea level rise
UKCIP02 (Medium-High scenario)
15 30 Global average sea level rise
UKCIP02 (High scenario)
18 36 Global average sea level rise
Sweeney et al (2003) 49 Global average sea level rise
Rahmstorf (2007) 55 - 125
Best estimate of sea level rise based on range of scenarios
Defra FCDPAG3 (2006)**
33 65 93 Based on guidance policy [SW England and Wales]
* A2 equivalent to Medium-High UKCIP02 scenario;
** The Defra estimates account for vertical land movement and therefore represent ‘net’ sea level rise
Details of the values adopted for use in this study are contained in Table 8-6 and Appendix
F.
8.2.4. Increase in precipitation and flows
Global and Ireland specific estimates of future increase in precipitation are available from climate change literature. Table 8-3 shows the range of predicted increases in precipitation for three different future time horizons.
The Lee catchment geology of limestone and sandstone aquifers, does not provide a vast amount of storage attenuation in the catchment. Based on this knowledge it is assumed that the percentage change in rainfall translates to the same percentage change in flow.
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Table 8-3 Estimates of increase in precipitation (%) applicable to the Lee CFRAMS from various UK and Irish sources for three future time horizons
Source 2050 2060 2080 2100 Comment
UKCIP02
(Medium-High scenario)
10% 15% Increase in winter precipitation
UKCIP02
(High scenario)
10% 15% Increase in winter precipitation
Sweeney and Fealy (2006)
11%-17%
Increase in winter precipitation
McGrath et al (2005) 10% Increase in December precipitation
Sweeney, et al (2003)
11% Increase in winter precipitation
Defra FCDPAG3 (2006)*
20% 20% 20% 20% Based on guidance policy [peak river flow, for large
catchments]
* The values included represent sensitivity range to be adopted for peak river flow
The values adopted for use in this study are contained in Table 8-6 and detailed in Appendix
F.
8.3. Afforestation
8.3.1. Introduction
Forestry policy in Ireland is implemented in the context of the 1996 Strategic Plan Growing for the Future. The strategy set a target for afforestation in Ireland of 20,000 hectares per annum, after 2000 up to 2035. The increase in forestry was found to be necessary to create the critical mass required to supply a competitive processing sector. Actual average annual afforestation of approximately 14,000 hectares per annum was noted in the period 1996 – 2003 (Peter Bacon & Associates, 2004). The species to be planted will be in the order of 70% conifers and 30% broadleaf species.
8.3.2. Ireland forest cover and practice to date
The Corine 2000 - Ireland Land Cover Update (2004) assessment shows that significant growth in foresty has occurred in Ireland between 1990 and 2000, growing from 10.2% to 11.9%. At present around 15,000 hectares of land area of the Lee catchment is covered by forest cover (Forest Service, 2006). This represents around 12% of the total catchment area. The forests in the Lee catchment are composed of predominately coniferous forest with some broad-leaf forest, and are mainly located in the upper catchment.
The forests are harvested on a 40 to 50 year cycle. All forest operations in Ireland are carried out in compliance with the principles of sustainable forest management (SFM) to meet high environmental, social and economic standards and are implemented through national standards, guidelines and a Code of Best Forest Practice (Forest Service, 2000).
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8.3.3. Afforestation
In the upland areas where forestry is increasingly concentrated, land is usually poorly drained and peaty, so that the soils often require artificial drainage. Pre-afforestation land drainage generally involves the removal of surface water, the drying of the soil and the suppression of vegetation on the overturned turf ridges and in the excavated ditches. The drainage causes an immediate increase in both high and low flows: flood flows tend to be peakier, with shorter response times and higher peaks, whilst baseflows generally increase. In the 10-year period following drainage and planting, there is a tendency for the response times, peak flows and baseflows to begin to regress towards their pre-drainage values. This is a result of the decay of the drainage ditches and infilling with vegetation, in addition to the increasing consumption of water by the growing tree crop. The overall effect of mature forests on flows is still the subject of debate. The steady growth of trees on drained land appears to result in a steady reduction in peak flows, caused largely by a reduction in runoff volumes. It is likely that baseflow will also eventually be reduced as the forest matures further (Flood Estimation Handbook, 1999).
8.3.4. Lee catchment
Forest cover in the Lee catchment is due to rise to around 17% by 2035, in line with government strategy (Forestry Service, 2006). This will increase the catchment area covered by forest by 6,250 hectares to 21,250 hectares. The afforestation will occur in the upper catchment, most likely in the marginal middleground areas, as shown on Figure 8-1. Any new forests will be managed in accordance with SFM principles, including a requirement that broadleaf buffer strips be planted in commercial forests adjacent to streams and rivers to slow runoff (Forest Service, 2000).
Figure 8-1 Landscape character areas within the catchment (Source: Cork County Council)
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8.3.5. Impact on hydrological processes
The impact of change in land use on flood generation is difficult to predict and is perhaps subjective. A range of field trials have been undertaken, producing a variety of results. A project undertaken by Defra/EA in England & Wales, Review of impacts of rural land use and management on flood generation: Impact study report (2005), summarises a variety of field studies. A selection of those studies undertaken on a catchment basis, relevant to afforestation are briefly described below.
(1) Coalburn (England)
Now the longest running experimental catchment in the UK. Catchment discharges have been monitored over a period of more than 30 years, starting in 1967. The various analyses of the study data have revealed significant increases in storm runoff and decreases in the time to peak immediately following drainage, with a recovery to pre-drainage responses after about 20 years. This recovery was interpreted as being the result of forest growth and a decrease in the efficiency of the surface drains, although to a proportionately smaller degree. In the first couple of years following drainage, lag times were about one-fifth to one-third shorter, and hydrograph peaks actually increased by 20% in the first 5 years after forest planting. This demonstrates that in the early stages of afforestation it is the ditches rather than the young saplings that exert the dominant hydrological influence.
(2) Forest of Bowland (England)
A paired catchment study of the effects of forests on water yield, supplemented by a plot-scale study of surface runoff under planted conifers suggested that runoff generation from forest plantations was as large, if not greater than from pasture, at least in the early stages of the growth cycle.
(3) Balquhidder (Scotland)
Comparison of flows in a largely forested sub-catchment and largely grassland sub-catchment. Based on this and other UK studies, Calder (1993b) concluded that conifer forests will reduce water yield irrespective of whether they replace grass or heather moorland. It was found less easy to generalise about the effects of conifer afforestation on low flows; although high evaporation rates from mature, closed-canopy forest can reduce low flows. Land drainage, which is often associated with upland forestry, may increase low flows in the short to medium term.
Evidence that land management changes affect flow in the surface water network
There is quantifiable evidence for the effect of conifer afforestation, but it is difficult to interpret. Most catchment monitoring studies in the UK have focussed on upland catchments dominated by conifer forest or rough grassland. There is evidence that afforestation affects peak flows and times to peak. However, this evidence shows that the impact of forests on flood generation cannot be predicted simply. In their general review of the history of forest hydrology, McCulloch and Robinson (1993) conclude that forests should reduce flood peaks, except for the effects of drainage and forest roads. A review of results from 28 monitoring sites throughout Europe (Robinson et al., 2003) concluded that the potential for forests to reduce peak flows is much less than has often been widely claimed, and that forestry appears to "... probably have a relatively small role to play in managing regional or large-scale flood risk". In summary, there is quantifiable evidence that both afforestation and field drainage can
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affect flows in the surface water network but the impacts can be very different, depending on the local soil type and specific management practices used.
8.3.6. Identification of future stages for Lee study
Research has shown that the impacts of a forest on flood generation in a catchment depends on several factors, such as the amount of surface cover during the year, the stages of the forest life cycle (planting/growing/maturing/logging), and on how forestry operations are managed. The various stages of the afforestation process impact on runoff in different ways e.g. flow, time-to-peak, etc. Therefore it is advisable to consider the impact of these stages on the Lee catchment. It is suggested that the impact scenarios modelled consider two main stages of the afforestation process, as detailed in Table 8-4.
To assess the stages of forest development it is necessary to apply an adaptation to the hydrological parameters. Based on the research of real life studies as detailed in Section
8.3.5, it is proposed to assess the changes to the hydrological parameters Standard Percentage Runoff (SPR) and Time-to-peak (Tp) as shown in Table 8-4. The modifications to SPR and Tp aim to incorporate a range of conditions whereby flood risk would increase and decrease.
Table 8-4 Future afforestation stages – hydrology parameters
Stage Stage of afforestation Change to SPR Change to Tp
1 Clearing of land/drainage + 10% -1/3
2 Mature forest - 10% No change
The suggested stages and parameters are consistent with policy guidance as provided by the Environment Agency for England and Wales, Catchment Flood Management Plan (CFMP) future scenario guidance (2006).
8.3.7. Application to modelling
The afforestation will occur in the upper catchment, most likely in the marginal middleground areas, as shown on Figure 8-1. This area is represented in the ‘Upper Lee’ hydraulic model, and therefore the scenarios suggested in Table 8-4 will be tested for this part of the Lee catchment only.
8.4. Urbanisation
8.4.1. Introduction
The 2006 census indicated that Cork County has an overall population of 480,409; of which 119,143 live in Cork City and in excess of 70,000 in the extensive suburbs. This is a countywide increase of over 30,000 from 2002. This rapidly growing population, linked to increasing immigration and the buoyant economy, presents significant pressure for increased residential, commercial and industrial development and associated infrastructure. Rapid increases in city house prices have resulted in migration from established areas to the new development in the urban fringes creating an urban sprawl around Cork City and the rapid expansion of towns such as Midleton and Carrigtohill. This has resulted in the rapid
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urbanisation of greenfield sites and provided a catalyst for economic regeneration within derelict areas of Cork City. This pattern is likely to continue.
The National Development Plan (NDP) 2007-2013 identified the Cork gateway as the largest urban and economic centre in the South West Region. The National Spatial Strategy (NSS) reinforced that Cork has an immediate potential to be developed to the national level scale required to compliment Dublin, this is also supported by the Cork Area Strategic Plan (CASP).
8.4.2. Ireland urban cover to date
The Corine 2000 - Ireland Land Cover Update (2004) assessment shows that a significant increase in the area of land covered by artificial surfaces has occurred in Ireland between 1990 and 2000, growing from 1.5% to 1.9%. All of these increases are probably related to the economic growth in Ireland in the 1990's and the demand for new housing and commercial premises. There was also an extensive building of new infrastructure (mainly motorways) during this period. Urban development and associated infrastructure covers approximately 3% of the Lee catchment, as shown on Figure 8-2. Development is principally concentrated around Cork City and Harbour and this includes major residential areas, commercial centres and significant industrial areas.
Figure 8-2 Existing urban development in the Lee catchment (based on year 2000 Corine data)
8.4.3. Urban development
It is generally accepted that urban development increases runoff because of the greater impermeability of urban surfaces, which has a marked effect on the flood behaviour of a catchment. Typically it accelerates and intensifies the flood response (Flood Estimation Handbook, 1999).
The 2001 Cork Area Strategic Plan (CASP) estimates that the population of Cork City, its surrounding settlements of Ballincollig, Blarney, Carrigaline, Douglas, Glanmire, Glounthane, Carrigtohill, Midleton and Cobh, ring towns and rural areas will increase by 23% or 78,050
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people over the period to 2020. Average residential densities are expected to be highest in Cork City and along public transport corridors. The overall housing requirement of Metropolitan Cork, over the period to 2020, is estimated to be in the order of 48,700 additional dwelling units. The rural towns of Midleton and Carrigtohill will be under significant residential development pressure, with Midleton predicted to be the largest town (after Cork city) by 2020. The Cork Docklands Development Strategy and subsequent two Local Area Plans (LAPs) detail extensive development in the Cork Docklands area located directly to the east of Cork City centre.
Figure 8-3 shows the spatial distribution of development which is planned to take place throughout the catchment based on the Cork City Council Development Plan and the Cork County Council Development Plan. The urban development area includes residential, industrial, commercial, retail and other infrastructure.
Figure 8-3 Future development in Lee catchment [to time horizon 2020]
8.4.4. Impact on hydrological processes
As identified in Section 8.4.3, the impact of urban development typically accelerates and intensifies the flood response.
8.4.5. Identification of future scenarios for Lee study
The impact of urbanisation on flood generation in a catchment depends on the spatial distribution of the urban cover. As development plans are available for proposed development to 2020, it is suggested that the impact scenarios modelled, as detailed in Table
8-5, consider the planned expansion as detailed in the development plans. An 18% increase in urban growth is predicted to 2020 based on current development plans (compared to Corine 2000 land use data) (equivalent to 0.90%/year). It is suggested that two future scenarios be developed. One scenario: based on rapid growth to 2020 (0.9%/year) with a less rapid growth between 2020 and 2100 (based on current population and projected population figures from the Cork Area Strategic Plan (CASP, 2001) and NCB Stockbrokers report (2006)), a lower rate of urban growth of 13% is predicted from 2020 to 2100 (equivalent
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to 0.16%/year); the other scenario: assuming rapid growth of 0.9%/year throughout, up to 2100.
This is based on a pragmatic and flexible approach, acknowledging that there is a high level of uncertainty associated with predicting development trends many years ahead. As the catchment is undergoing rapid growth the 18% could be considered as a high rate and an upper limit.
The Cork gateway has been identified as the largest urban and economic centre in the South West Region, and the plans in place to expand have been assumed as sufficient to not necessitate the modelling of a low urban growth trend.
To assess the urban development it is necessary to apply an adaptation to the hydrological parameters. It is proposed to assess existing urban development based on the Corine land use data 2000, and future development on the 2020 development plans as shown in Table 8-
5. This process will allow an up-date of the urban hydrological parameter, URBAN, to be achieved.
Table 8-5 Future urban development scenarios – hydrology parameters
Scenario Stage of urban
development
Change to URBAN
1 Based on current development plans
Current urban trend
Growth rate 0.90% increase in urban area per year to 2020 & 0.16% to 2100
2 Based on future development trend
Future urban trend
Growth rate 0.90% increase in urban area per year to 2100
The suggested scenarios and parameters are consistent with policy guidance as provided by the Environment Agency for England and Wales, Catchment Flood Management Plan (CFMP) future scenario guidance (2006).
8.4.6. Application to modelling
The urban development will occur throughout the catchment, as shown on Figure 8-3. Therefore the scenarios suggested in Table 8-5 will be applied to the whole catchment, via application of a change in the ‘urban’ hydrological parameter for each sub-catchment.
8.5. Future scenarios for flood risk management
As detailed in Sections 8.2 to 8.4, there are a number of drivers that can influence future flood risk in the Lee catchment and the estimates of these drivers vary. Table 8-6 collates potential future changes to these drivers, in the form of two future scenarios. The ‘Mid Range Future Scenario’ (MRFS) considers the more likely estimates of changes to the drivers by 2100. To allow for future adaptability of flood defence measures, a ‘High End Future Scenario’ (HEFS) has been included, representing extreme changes in the respective drivers by 2100. It is worth noting that these future estimates will not necessarily impact cumulatively.
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Table 8-6 Relevant combinations of drivers to provide boundaries for future flood risk
Relevant combinations of drivers to provide boundaries for future flood risk
Scenarios Driver
Mid Range Future
Scenario (MRFS)
High End Future Scenario
(HEFS)
Climate change - fluvial flows
+ 20% + 30%
Climate change - net sea level rise
+ 55cm + 105cm
Land use change – afforestation
- 1/6 Tp + 10% SPR
- 1/3 Tp
Land use change – urbanisation
Current urban trend
Growth rate 0.90% increase in urban area per year to 2020 & 0.16% to
2100
Future urban trend
Growth rate 0.90% increase in urban area per year to
2100
The future scenarios will be used when considering the design level of flood mitigation options in the Lee catchment.
• Mid Range Future Scenario (MRFS) - Flood risk management options should be undertaken so as to not impact on existing flood risk in current conditions, and should be adaptable to the MRFS.
• High End Future Scenario (HEFS) - When considering option appraisal, sensitivity analysis to the HEFS should be undertaken to enable the adaptability of each option to be assessed (to cater for more extreme changes in the future).
8.5.1. Explanation of adopted values
(a) Climate change - fluvial flows
MRFS: An increase of 20% to fluvial flow by 2100 is based on Sweeney and Fealy (2006) [17% by 2080 for winter precipitation]. This is supported by Defra FCDPAG3 (2006) guidance policy where 20% is used as a sensitivity range to be adopted for peak river flow.
HEFS: An increase of 30% is assumed based on Murphy et al (National Hydrology Seminar on "Water Resources in Ireland and Climate Change"), predicting streamflow increases of up to 30% for winter months on the Suir catchment.
(b) Climate change - net sea level rise
MRFS: A net sea level rise of 55cm by 2100 is based on Sweeney et al (2003) [49cm by 2100] and incorporating isostatic subsidence of 0.5mm/year [5.6cm by 2100] based on Shennan and Horton (2002) for Wales in the UK. Isostatic subsidence of 0.5mm/year is supported by the Defra FCDPAG3 (2006) guidance policy.
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HEFS: A net sea level rise of 105cm by 2100 is based on Defra FCDPAG3 (2006) guidance policy – as assessed for South West England and Wales. This incorporates isostatic subsidence of 0.5mm/year [5.6cm by 2100] based on Shennan and Horton (2002). In addition a 100mm allowance for surge is incorporated.
Investigations into the effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storm surges are at an early stage. Initial results modelling up to the year 2100 have produced inconsistent results depending on which models are used. Some models indicate an increase in extreme surge heights whilst others indicate a potential reduction. In view of this high degree of uncertainty, it is not possible at present to give guidance on whether allowances for changes in storm surge due to climate change should be used. However 100mm has been included under the instruction of the OPW.
(c) Land use change – afforestation
MRFS: It is considered unlikely that all areas of large sub-catchments will be subjected to the identical stage of afforestation at any one time, but rather clearing/drainage and mature growth will occur simultaneously in different parts of the sub-catchment. Therefore it is assumed that the clearing/drainage process could increase the SPR by 10%, but that the mature growth stage of the process could decrease SPR by 10% - therefore it is assumed that these changes negate each other and no absolute change to SPR will occur. Tp is estimated to decrease by 1/3 for the clearing/drainage process - this will be further reduced to 1/6 as a result of the average of the two processes.
It is assumed that current land policy practice is adopted until 2100.
HEFS: Assuming that the clearing/drainage process dominates the hydrological process an increase to the SPR of 10% is estimated, with a reduction in the Tp by 1/3.
Changes in land use are normally tested on the catchment scale to gain an indication of the sensitivity of the catchment to change. However it is known that the afforestation in the Lee catchment will occur in the marginal middleground areas of the upper Lee catchment (Forest Service, 2000), therefore changes to the hydrological parameters will be applied to the respective sub-catchments in the upper Lee to enhance representation of the process. By doing this we are localising the possible impacts of afforestation, as would occur in reality. There is no further information available on the exact location of the proposed afforestation over the next 100 years that can be applied. Applying the change in hydrological parameters on an even smaller scale, than we already propose, is not possible or advisable. Research to-date has not provided a detailed relationship on which to support such downscaling of the suggested relationship.
(d) Land use change – urbanisation
MRFS: An 18% increase in urban growth is predicted to 2020 based on current development plans (compared to Corine 2000 land use data) (equivalent to 0.90%/year). As the catchment is under going rapid growth this percentage is considered a high rate and an upper limit on growth. Based on current population and projected population figures from the Cork Area Strategic Plan (CASP, 2001) and NCB Stockbrokers report (2006), a lower rate of urban growth of 13% is predicted from 2020 to 2100 (equivalent to 0.16%/year).
HEFS: The current urban growth trend of 18% by 2020 is assumed to continue to 2100 (equivalent to 0.90%/year).
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The increase in urban growth will be applied to the current urban areas within the Lee catchment.
8.6. Inclusion of confidence limits in Lee CFRAMS
Section 8.5 presents two alternative sensitivity scenarios, based on possible changes in catchment and climatic conditions. Flood confidence limits provide a further representation of the uncertainties in flow estimates and account for the reliability of the underlying data in flood estimates. Where inclusion of flow confidence limits is required in the Lee CFRAMS, Section
6.5.4 recommends that an averaged design flow confidence factor of 1.52 (95%ile confidence limit) is used.
It is recommended that the sensitivity analysis of a design option also includes allowances for the flow confidence limit, as follow:
• Where designing to the Existing Conditions scenario, the sensitivity scenario (Mid Range Future Scenario) shall include the 1.52 confidence limit factor;
• Where designing to the Mid Range Future Scenario, the sensitivity scenario (High End Future Scenario) shall include the 1.52 confidence limit factor.
8.7. Policy to aid flood reduction
8.7.1. Sustainable urban drainage systems
Current evidence suggests that interventions which seek to reduce near-source drivers and pressures associated with land use change are likely to prove most effective and efficient as the drivers themselves are policy driven. This involves discouraging inappropriate land use, farming practices and development where these are clearly linked to increased run-off and flood risk. The diffuse nature of rural land management and related flood generation suggest that, on its own, mandatory regulation would prove ineffective and inefficient, being difficult and costly to administer and enforce, and possibly insufficiently flexible to deal with local circumstances and practices. Instead, the best approach would appear to be a mix of policy instruments: economic and voluntary measures, supported by advice and technical support.
There are many measures that can be taken to mitigate local flooding by delaying runoff from agricultural, forested or developed land using sustainable urban drainage systems such as grass buffers, appropriate ditching permeable surfacing, infiltration/filter trenches, filter strips, soakaways, swales, detention basins, constructed wetlands, and ponds. An integrated approach is needed in applying these measures so that the maximum overall benefit is gained for flood and pollution mitigation and erosion reduction.
At present there is no national policy in Ireland requiring SUDs to be incorporated into new developments, although some local authorities do require sustainable drainage systems as part of planning conditions. In addition, future policy guidance on SUDS may not specify up-take by all types of development; therefore it is difficult at this stage to account for which percentage of future development would apply SUDS. Scenario 1 in Table 8-5 will provide an upper limit on the runoff expected from the planned future development in the catchment. If within future guidance SUDS are enforced then the runoff can be assumed to be lower.
It should be noted that SUDS are normally designed for a specified frequency of event, such as the 3% annual exceedance probability (AEP) event. Therefore it could be assumed that
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when flood producing events with low AEP occur for example 0.5% AEP, even developments with SUDS will not be able to attenuate the runoff.
In the UK, Defra are currently undertaking a study with CIRIA on the effectiveness of SUDS. There is a growing view that they may not be as effective/value for money as postulated and other mitigation measures may be more cost effective. It is recommended that the findings of this study are reviewed and considered in future revisions of this study.
OPW are currently undertaking a study on the Preparation of Guidance on the Consideration of Flooding in Planning and Development Management which is due to be completed in 2008. The output from this study will provide guidance to both local authorities and developers on the appropriateness of developing in flood risk areas.
8.7.2. Operation of the Carrigadrohid and Inishcarra Dams
An opportunity appears to exist for the ESB to incorporate additional operational rules based on rainfall forecast and/or measurement thresholds. These rules could operate for the reservoir levels below the Maximum Normal Operating Levels and include the lowering of reservoir levels prior to a flood event. Such rules will be constrained by limitations on reservoir drawdown rates and reasonable electricity generation interests but could take precedence over seasonal operational rules (such as the covering of the tree stumps in the Gearagh during the summer). The benefit of modifying operational rules will be assessed during the hydraulic modelling stage of the Lee CFRAM Study.
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9. Summary and recommendations
9.1. Summary of key outputs
A detailed hydrological assessment has been undertaken as part of the Lee CFRAMS. Methodologies in the Flood Studies Report and Flood Estimation Handbook have been used to analyse meteorological and hydrometric data to estimate extreme flows in the main rivers and tributaries in the catchment.
The key outputs from this assessment include:
• Study growth curve;
• Study unit hydrograph;
• Index floods for each subcatchment (Qmed);
• Revised rating curves providing higher confidence in high flow estimates for eleven prioritised hydrometric gauges in the catchment;
• Design flows for a range of durations for the 50%, 20%, 10%, 4%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.1% AEP events for existing conditions for each subcatchment;
• Two future scenarios taking into consideration the mid range and high end of future climate change and land use change predictions;
• Design flows for a range of durations for the 50%, 20%, 10%, 4%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.1% AEP events for the MRFS and 1%, 0.5% and 0.1% AEP events for the HEFS for each subcatchment.
The outputs from the hydrological assessment will be used in the hydraulic modelling and flood risk management option assessment stages of the Lee CFRAMS.
9.2. Recommendations
While there is extensive meteorological and hydrometric data available in the Lee catchment, there have been difficulties in obtaining digitised data and digitising large amounts of paper charts was not possible within the timescales of this study. It is recommended that the full data record is digitised to enable further analysis options to future reviews of the Lee CFRAMS hydrology, including peak over threshold statistical analysis and unit hydrograph analysis. It is also recommended that a joint ESB, EPA and OPW review is undertaken to ascertain whether further collaboration is possible in accessing, storing and disseminating data from ESB gauges.
In order to improve the coverage of meteorological; data in the catchment it is recommended that two additional rainfall gauges are located in the Owenacurra catchment, one at the base of the valley 1km North of Middleton, and another on a high spur between the Owenncurra and Leamlarra Rivers. In addition, hydrometric gauges on the Tramore, Curragheen, Glasheen, Bride (north of Lee) and Dungourney rivers are recommended. Section 6.2.2 recommends that an additional (possibly temporary) hydrometric gauge is placed on the Owenboy River to assist in future reviews of the catchment runoff characteristics.
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Given the rainfall under prediction identified in the FSR rainfall mapping, as detailed in Section 5.3, it is recommended that the City and County Councils consider the use of the Lee CFRAMS M5-2Day contours or preliminary FSU outputs for surface water drainage design within the study area or increase FSR M5-2Day values by 20%. It is also recommended that the Lee CFRAMS annual maximum rainfall values are reviewed on an annual basis (Section
5.4). If this review identifies a sustained increase in long term annual maximum rainfall trends, it is recommended that the index rainfall is increased throughout the study area. It also recommended that future reviews of the Lee CFRMP consider the rainfall data from the six ESB rain gauges in the catchment.
A review of the rating curves at eleven prioritised hydrometric stations was undertaken to maximise the accuracy of extreme flows estimates within the scope of the methodologies and data available. Rating reviews of the remaining ten gauges as part of the review of the Lee CFRMP will assist in further increasing the potential accuracy of the lower priority hydrometric gauges in the study area. As detailed in Section 2.2.3, it is also recommended that rating curves developed using the HRSC data are revised at a future date to include floodplain details generated from LiDAR data.
This report acknowledges that an unresolved apparent discrepancy may exist at the 19001 gauge (Section 6.2.2). It is recommended that the OPW consider the installation of a temporary recorder nearby on the Owenboy to facilitate confirmation of recorded flood flows in subsequent revisions of the Lee CFRMP. The rating curve review identified that there is limited high flow spot gauge measurements at the gauging stations. We would recommend that where possible additional spot gaugings be recorded at higher flows. At gauge 19012 there is limited spot gaugings post 1990 when channel works had taken place. We would recommend that additional spot gaugings are recoded at this gauging location.
In addition to determining the existing flood risk, there are a number of drivers that can influence future flood risk in the Lee catchment, including climate change, afforestation and urbanisation. In relation to climate change and net sea level rise, it is recommended that subsequent revisions of the Lee CFRMP consider data available from a CGPS station at Castletownbere (Section 8.2.3) in assessing isostatic subsidence along the south coast of Ireland.
To facilitate the assessment of potential future flood risk, two future flood risk management scenarios have been proposed, a Mid Range Future Scenario and a High End Future Scenario. The range of parameters incorporated in each of the future scenarios has been determined from a comprehensive review of current research. The first report on results from the UKCIP08 Climate Emissions study is due to be published late 2007 and it is recommended that the outcome of this study be consulted to inform future catchment studies.
In the UK, Defra are currently undertaking a study with CIRIA on the effectiveness of SUDS (Section 8.7.1). There is a growing view that SUDS may not be as effective/value for money as postulated and other mitigation measures may be more cost effective. It is recommended that the findings of this study are reviewed and considered in future revisions of the Lee CFRMP.
Due to the inherent uncertainty associated with hydrological estimates confidence limits have been derived to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimates. Use of the confidence limits will be dependent on the application. For the Lee CFRAMS the design estimates are to be used without confidence limits applied for the hydraulic modelling and flood mapping of the existing case with the confidence limits providing a sensitivity test when determining
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appropriate freeboard. When designing for the future scenarios the appropriate confidence limit should be applied to the design flow.
For applications outside of the Lee study, where inclusion of the 95%ile confidence limit is required in flood estimates (for example, Section 50 applications), it is recommended that design flows provided in this study are scaled by an average factor of 1.52.
The ESB play a significant flood management role in the Lee catchment through the operation of the hydroelectric dams at Carrigadrohid and Inishcarra. A preliminary assessment of the impact of their operations on the catchment has been made as part of the hydrological assessment and it is recommended that further consultation with the ESB is undertaken during the hydraulic modelling and flood risk management options stages of this study.
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Appendices
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A1
Appendix A. Data collection
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
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A2
A1 Hydrological data
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appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
57N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
coa
stal
floo
ding
at
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ntai
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wn
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and
Co
Cor
k.
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
58N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
coa
stal
floo
ding
at
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gabe
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o C
ork
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od H
azar
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appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
59N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teC
arrig
alin
e ar
ea m
eetin
g m
inut
es
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il 20
05
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
60N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teC
arrig
alin
e flo
od r
epor
t Oct
ober
200
4
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
61N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
in B
larn
ey v
illag
e fr
om F
ebru
ary
1990
.
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
62N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
te
Aer
ial p
hoto
s of
floo
ding
in th
e Le
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tchm
ent f
rom
5th
of D
ecem
ber
2000
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
63N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teF
lood
ing
from
Nov
embe
r 20
00 -
P
utla
nds
Brid
ge-W
ater
loo
Junc
tion
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
64N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teR
ober
tsco
ve C
oast
al F
lood
ing
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
A6 S
ort b
y D
ata_
ID
befo
re e
nter
ing
a ne
w d
ata
item
Has
dat
a be
en
supe
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ed?
Des
crip
tion
Ent
er p
erso
n an
d or
gani
satio
nT
his
fills
in
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mat
ical
ly
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g /
Doc
umen
t /
Pho
to /
GIS
etc
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alcr
ow p
erso
nO
PW
/ ot
her
orga
nisa
tion/
per
son
Hal
crow
per
son
that
dat
a is
sen
t to
Data
_ID
Su
pers
ed
ed
Cate
go
ryN
am
e o
f d
ata
ite
mD
ata
av
aila
ble
fro
mw
ith
Ha
lcro
w a
nd
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b c
on
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lta
nts
?T
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e o
f d
ata
Req
ueste
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yD
ate
req
ueste
dR
eq
uest
se
nt
toR
ec
eiv
ed
by
Date
rec
eiv
ed
66N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
te
New
spap
er a
rtic
le fr
om th
e Ir
ish
Exa
min
er fr
om A
ugus
t 198
7 re
latin
g tp
floo
d co
ntro
l fro
m In
ishc
arra
dam
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od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
67N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teE
veni
ng E
cho
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spap
er a
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in C
ork
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od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
68N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
te
Lee
flood
con
trol
and
Dam
saf
ety
- su
ppor
t doc
umen
t on
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od F
orec
ast
mod
ellin
g fo
r C
ork
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
69N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teF
lood
War
ning
Sys
tem
s in
Cor
k C
ount
y
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
70N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teLe
tter
rega
rdin
g flo
odin
g at
S
enan
dale
Clo
ghro
e
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
71N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teR
epor
t on
the
Flo
odin
g Le
vels
from
F
ebru
ary
2002
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
72N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teF
lood
ext
ent m
aps
for
the
Low
er L
ee
for
the
Aug
ust 1
986
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od E
xten
t
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YM
ap-
--
Cla
re D
ewar
03/1
0/06
73N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teR
epor
t on
the
Nov
embe
r 20
0o fl
ood
on th
e R
iver
Lee
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
74N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teM
et E
irean
n m
ontly
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ther
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letin
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Aug
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986
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m
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
75N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teF
lood
ing
in th
e M
unst
er B
lack
wat
er
Cat
chm
ent 6
Aug
ust 8
6.pd
f
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
A7
Sor
t by
Dat
a_ID
be
fore
ent
erin
g a
new
dat
a ite
m
Has
dat
a be
en
supe
rsed
ed?
Des
crip
tion
Ent
er p
erso
n an
d or
gani
satio
nT
his
fills
in
auto
mat
ical
ly
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win
g /
Doc
umen
t /
Pho
to /
GIS
etc
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alcr
ow p
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nO
PW
/ ot
her
orga
nisa
tion/
per
son
Hal
crow
per
son
that
dat
a is
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t to
Data
_ID
Su
pers
ed
ed
Cate
go
ryN
am
e o
f d
ata
ite
mD
ata
av
aila
ble
fro
mw
ith
Ha
lcro
w a
nd
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b c
on
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lta
nts
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e o
f d
ata
Req
ueste
d b
yD
ate
req
ueste
dR
eq
uest
se
nt
toR
ec
eiv
ed
by
Date
rec
eiv
ed
76N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teO
verv
iew
of M
unst
er F
lood
Aug
ust
1986
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
77N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teR
epor
t on
the
Riv
er L
ee F
lood
5&
6 A
ugus
t 198
6
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
78N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teR
epor
t on
the
Riv
er L
ee F
lood
F
ebru
ary
1997
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-C
lare
Dew
ar03
/10/
06
87N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teN
ewsp
aper
Art
icle
from
the
Eve
ning
E
ch N
ewsp
aper
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
88N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teN
ewsp
aper
Art
icle
from
the
Exa
min
er
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
89N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teN
ewsp
aper
Art
icle
from
Inde
pend
ent
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ss
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od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
90N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teN
ewsp
aper
Art
icle
from
the
Iris
h T
imes
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
91N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teN
ewsp
aper
Art
icle
from
the
Iris
h T
imes
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YN
ewsp
aper
ar
ticle
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
92N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
from
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lyga
rven
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
93N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
from
Car
raga
line
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
94N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teF
lood
ing
repo
rt -
Car
raga
line
Cro
ssha
ven
Roa
d -
Nov
embe
r 20
04
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YD
ocum
ent
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
95N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teF
lood
ing
repo
rt -
Car
raga
line
- N
ovem
ber
2002
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
YD
ocum
ent
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
A8
Sor
t by
Dat
a_ID
be
fore
ent
erin
g a
new
dat
a ite
m
Has
dat
a be
en
supe
rsed
ed?
Des
crip
tion
Ent
er p
erso
n an
d or
gani
satio
nT
his
fills
in
auto
mat
ical
ly
Dra
win
g /
Doc
umen
t /
Pho
to /
GIS
etc
.H
alcr
ow p
erso
nO
PW
/ ot
her
orga
nisa
tion/
per
son
Hal
crow
per
son
that
dat
a is
sen
t to
Data
_ID
Su
pers
ed
ed
Cate
go
ryN
am
e o
f d
ata
ite
mD
ata
av
aila
ble
fro
mw
ith
Ha
lcro
w a
nd
su
b c
on
su
lta
nts
?T
yp
e o
f d
ata
Req
ueste
d b
yD
ate
req
ueste
dR
eq
uest
se
nt
toR
ec
eiv
ed
by
Date
rec
eiv
ed
96N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
from
Car
raga
line
- Ja
nuar
y 20
05 a
nd N
ovem
ber
2002
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
97N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
from
Car
ralin
e fr
om N
ovem
ber
1994
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
98N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
from
Dou
glas
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Yph
otos
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
99N
Flo
odin
g R
epor
ts fr
om
FH
M w
ebsi
teP
hoto
s of
floo
ding
from
Wat
er R
ock
in M
idel
eton
Flo
od H
azar
d M
appi
ng
(FH
M)
web
site
w
ww
.floo
dhaz
ardm
appi
ng.i
e
Ydo
cum
ent
--
-Li
nda
Hem
sley
13/1
0/06
100
NF
lood
ing
Rep
orts
from
F
HM
web
site
Doc
umen
t of r
ecor
ded
flood
ing
com
plai
nts
for
the
1988
floo
d ev
ent
Flo
od H
azar
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Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
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Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
A10
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Pau
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07
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
A11
A4 Data status tables
Hydrometric Data Frequency
Station Name
Station
ID 1877… 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Station ID Provider
Ballea 19001 19001 OPW
Buckley's Bridge 19005 19005 EPA
Glanmire 19006 19006 EPA
Brookhill 19009 19009 EPA
Upstream Leemount Bridge 19011 19011 ESB
Downstream Leemount Bridge 19012 19012 ESB
Inniscarra 19013 19013 ESB
Dromcarra 19014 19014 ESB
Healy's Bridge 19015 19015 ESB
Oven's Bridge 19016 19016 ESB
Bawnnafinny 19017 19017 EPA
Tower 19018 19018 EPA
Ballyedmond 19020 19020 EPA
East Cork Foods 19022 19022 EPA
Shanakill 19027 15 Minute Maximum Annual Flows 19027 ESB
Dripsey Woollen Mills 19028 Peak Daily 19028 ESB
Macroom 19031 19031 ESB
Meadowbrook 19032 19032 EPA
Kilmona 19044 19044 OPW
Gothic 19045 19045 OPW
Station Road 19046 19046 OPW
KEY
Meteorological Data Frequency
Station Name
Station
ID 1877… 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Station ID Provider
Roche's Point 1004 1004 Met Eireann
Roche's Point 2 1004-2 1004-2 Met Eireann
Rathduff G.S. 1504 1504 Met Eireann
Coomclogh Daily 1901 1901 Met Eireann
Ballyvourney (Clountycarty) 2604 2604 Met Eireann
Gouganebarra Daily 2704 2704 Met Eireann
Donoughmore Daily 2804 2804 Met Eireann
Ballinagree (Mushera) 2904 2904 Met Eireann
Ballingeary (Voc.Sch.) 3004 3004 Met Eireann
Carrigadrohid (Gen.Stn.) 3604 3604 Met Eireann
Inishcarra (Gen.Stn.) 3704 3704 Met Eireann
Macroom (Renanirree) 3804 3804 Met Eireann
Youghal (St.Raphael's 3806 3806 Met Eireann
Cork Airport 3904 3904 Met Eireann
Ballineen Daily 4002 4002 Met Eireann
Ballintrideen Daily 4402 4402 Met Eireann
Ballymacoda (Mountcotton) 4404 4404 Met Eireann
Ballineen (Carbery) 4602 4602 Met Eireann
Dungourney (Ballyeightragh) 4804 4804 Met Eireann
Killeagh (Monabraher) 4904 4904 Met Eireann
Shanagarry North 5004 5004 Met Eireann
Macroom (Curraleigh) 5204 5204 Met Eireann
Dunmanway (Keelaraheen) 5302 5302 Met Eireann
Cork Montenotte 5404 5404 Met Eireann
Cork (Douglas) 5504 5504 Met Eireann
Aherlamore Daily 5704 5704 Met Eireann
Watergrasshill (Tinageragh) 5804 1 Hour Data Not Awaiting 5804 Met Eireann
Muskerry (Golf 6104 Daily 6104 Met Eireann
Lombardstown (Drompeach) 6206 6206 Met Eireann
Banteer Lyre 6306 6306 Met Eireann
Coolea (Milleens) 6404 6404 Met Eireann
Little Island 6504 6504 Met Eireann
Fota Island 6604 6604 Met Eireann
Castlemartyr (Killamucky) 6704 6704 Met Eireann
Bartlemy Daily 7006 7006 Met Eireann
OPW Station 80701 80701 OPW
OPW Station 80702 80702 OPW
OPW Station 80703 80703 OPW
OPW Station 80704 80704 OPW
OPW Station 80705 80705 OPW
OPW Station 80713 80713 OPW
OPW Station 80726 80726 OPW
OPW Station 80729 80729 OPW
KEY
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B1
Appendix B. Historical flood events
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B2
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B3
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B4
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B5
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B6
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
B7
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
C1
Appendix C. Meteorological analysis
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
C2
C1 2 Day rainfall quartile analysis
C1.1 Overview
This appendix provides details of the meteorological analysis undertaken, supplementing the information provided in Section 5 of the report. Information on the available rainfall data is described in Section 2.4.
Table C1 outlines the notation referred to throughout Appendix C.
Table C1 Notation
Notation Explanation
AMfixed-1hr annual maximum 1 hour rainfall for fixed duration (calendar hour)
(note that sometimes 'fixed' notation is dropped for ease)
RMEDfixed-1hr median value from annual maxima series of 1 hour rainfall
(note that sometimes 'fixed' notation is dropped for ease)
AMfixed-2day annual maximum 2 day rainfall for fixed duration (calendar days)
(note that sometimes 'fixed' notation is dropped for ease)
RMEDfixed-2day median value from annual maxima series of 2 day rainfall
(note that sometimes 'fixed' notation is dropped for ease)
N number of years of record (or number of annual maxima)
F(i) Gringorton plotting position value interims of its ith position
y Gumbel reduced variate value
T return period in years
QM1 mean of the first quartile of a series of annual maxima
(similarly QM2, QM3 and QM4 are the second, third and fourth quartile means)
M middle half mean of the middle half i.e. mean of QM2 and QM3
M upper half mean of the upper half i.e. mean of QM3 and QM4
2M, 1M, M2, M5, …, MT the value with return period 1/2, 1, 2, 5, …, T years
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
C3
H1 the highest value of a series of annual maxima
(similarly H2, H3 and H4 are the second, third and fourth highest values)
R the ratio of 60 minute M5/2 day M5
X extreme value of rainfall
C1.2 2 Day annual maxima
The analysis of 2-Day annual maxima was based on the FSR Section 2.2 (Graphical analysis of a set of annual maxima).
Each gauged record set of 2-day annual maxima with N annual maxima was ranked into ascending order and RMEDfixed-2day calculated. The plotting position and reduced variate y were obtained using the Gringorton plotting position and the Gumbel reduced variate (equations 8.1 and 8.2 respectively from FEH).
Gringorton Plotting Position Formulae: F(i) = (i - 0.44) / (N + 0.12)
F(i) is the non-exceedance probability, i the rank in ascending order
Gumbel Reduced Variate Formulae: y = -ln (-lnF)
Standardised values of rainfall (AMfixed-2day / RMEDfixed-2day) versus were produced at each gauge and compiled together in Figure C1. The averaged rainfall growth curve can be seen tending towards 1.9-1.8 times the median annual rainfall for the 1 in 100 year storm event. This tendency is slightly below the corresponding hydrology growth curve factor, but broadly consistent with trends. Section 6.5.2 provides further discussion on the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological growth curves.
100010050201052
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Reduced variate, y
Sta
nd
ard
ise
d 2
Da
y R
ain
fall
Return Period
Figure C1 2 day duration rainfall data plotted using the Gumbel plotting positions
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C1.3 Annual maxima quartile analysis
A quartile analysis (FSR Volume II Section 2.2) was completed of the 2-day annual maxima rainfall data. The analysis involved the following steps:
1. At each station the ordered annual maxima were divided into four quartiles. This was achieved by notionally taking each annual maxima value four times, giving a total of 4 x N values.
2. The quartile geometric means (QM1, QM2, QM3 and QM4) were calculated. (Geometric mean preferable as rainfall data tends to show proportional increases).
3. The geometric mean of the middle half and the upper half i.e. geometric mean of QM2 & QM3 and QM3 & QM4 respectively were also calculated.
The four highest values H4, H3, H2 and H1 were noted.
4. The quartile geometric means above may be shown to correspond to theoretical values (Jenkinson, 1974) for the reduced variate y shown in the summary table below. The quartile means also show a close relationship to yearly return (Table C2).
Table C2 Quartile summary for 2 day annual maximum rainfall (From FSR Volume II)
Quartile Parameter Return Period (years) Reduced Variate (y)
QM1 2M -0.8
QM2 1M 0.02
QM3 0.77
QM4 M10 2.32
Middle half M2 0.4
Upper half M5 1.55
H4
H3
H2
H1
The Return Period and reduced variate for H1, H2, H3 and H4 are calculated from the corresponding annual maxima value.
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C1.4 Graphical plotting of M5-2day rainfall
Following the quartile summary and calculating of M5, A multiplication factor of 1.11 was used to convert the M5-2day point values at each station from calendar fixed duration 2 day values to sliding duration 48 hour values (FSR Section 3 and FEH Section 10). The FEH multiplication factor (Table 10.1) was considered a better estimate than that contained within the FSR as this document is the latest standard.
The M5-2day point values were now plotted onto a catchment map at the geographical station positions. Taking account of catchment topography a set of isohyetal lines were plotted and the FSR M5-2day isohyetal lines superimposed so comparison could be made.
C1.5 Combination of data sets – Study growth curves
In accordance with FSR methodology a regional set of growth curves were compiled for the study area with several classes. The sets of annual maxima and their corresponding quartile summaries were classed according to the magnitude of their M5 value (five year return period value). The ranges taken for each class were similar to those used within the FSR analysis i.e. 60-75mm, 75-100mm and 100-150mm so that comparison could be made. Effectively this incorporated all of the useable data sets.
For each class division the quartile parameters were set out for all of the gauges from the quartile summaries along with the values of N and H1/M2 calculated at each gauge. See example below of column headings for quartile analysis parameters:
_________________________________________________________________
N QM1 QM2 QM3 QM4 Middle Upper H4 H3 H2 H1
H1/M2
half half
2M 1M M10 M2 M5
_________________________________________________________________
The median value (mean of the middle half in a quartile analysis) was obtained for each of the above column headings (quartile analysis parameters). This gave a table of median values for each class with which to generate a growth curve.
In order to extend the growth curves a full quartile summary was undertaken for the values of H1 (extreme value of point rainfall for each data set) for each class. And a full quartile summary made for this, with standardised values (using M5 value) of H1 taken.
However due to the spatial positioning of the network of stations used and the relatively small data sets the extreme H value analysis was not used to further extend the growth curve. Instead the FSR growth curve factors (Table 2.7 and 2.9) were used to extend beyond the M50-2day. Growth factors from Table 2.9 from Scotland and Northern Ireland were chosen as they appeared a better fit of the two.
C1.6 Plotting comments
65-70mm: Scot/NI distribution appears to be a closer fit. Used all points from quartile and H1 analysis. 12 stations with 44 year average i.e. N=522. Used Scot/NI growth factors from M1000 up to fit to long term trend. Polynomial order 3 used as trend line.
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70-100mm: H1 analysis values at the top end tend to be of poor quality. Possibly due to poor average length of record. Upper quartile and extreme values do not compare closely with that of FSR growth curves. Disregard H1 quartile analysis, and use Scot/NI distribution as it appears to fit better at higher return periods. 15 stations with 21 year average. N=315. Used Scot/NI growth factors from M100 up to fit to long term trend. Polynomial order 3 used as trend line.
100-150mm: Scot/NI growth curve used as both FSR growth curves are very similar. 2 stations at 58 year average. Used Scot/NI growth factors from M1000 up to fit to long term trend. Polynomial order 3 used as trend line.
C1.7 2 Day quartile analysis results
Results from the quartile analysis are provided in tabular form (Table C3). The implications of the quartile analysis are discussed further in Section 5.2.
The primary deliverables from the 2 day rainfall analysis are the rainfall growth curves (Figures 5.1 to 5.3 in Section 5) and the M5-2Day rainfall plots (Figure C5)
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Table C3 2 Day duration quartile analysis results
Ranked fixed sliding 2M 1M M10 M2 M5
Station M5-2day M5-2day QM1 QM2 QM3 QM4 M mid. Half M up. Half H4 H3 H2 H1 H1/M2
Class 60-75mm 5004 59.6 66.1 34.01 44.02 51.88 68.38 47.79 59.56 67.00 70.00 75.00 85.00 1.78
3806 61.9 68.7 35.99 45.86 52.75 72.62 49.18 61.89 75.00 79.00 80.00 134.00 2.72
1004 62.1 68.9 34.66 44.39 54.36 70.93 49.12 62.09 78.00 79.80 84.40 94.40 1.92
4404 63.7 70.7 34.69 43.25 54.13 74.98 48.39 63.71 71.00 80.00 90.00 103.00 2.13
3704 67.7 75.2 40.76 49.80 58.93 77.79 54.18 67.71 82.00 83.00 87.00 100.00 1.85
5404 69.6 77.3 36.91 53.19 63.43 76.43 58.08 69.63 70.00 72.00 87.00 97.00 1.67
3604 70.6 78.4 45.83 53.75 61.63 80.96 57.55 70.64 91.00 92.00 97.00 109.00 1.89
7006 71.2 79.1 28.39 53.21 63.08 80.46 57.94 71.25 66.00 77.00 83.00 90.00 1.55
1504 72.8 80.8 39.15 50.57 61.83 85.81 55.92 72.84 101.00 101.00 109.00 155.00 2.77
2804 73.2 81.3 45.74 56.26 65.97 81.26 60.92 73.22 84.00 91.00 93.00 102.00 1.67
4904 84.0 93.2 42.10 51.24 61.37 87.60 56.08 73.32 84.00 88.00 100.00 103.00 1.84
3904 74.5 82.7 43.20 55.02 66.22 83.86 60.36 74.52 84.00 91.00 96.00 122.00 2.02
Class 75-100mm 6306 75.8 84.1 50.15 58.36 65.60 87.52 61.88 75.77 86.00 92.00 95.00 97.00 1.57
4804 76.3 84.7 40.82 53.31 67.93 85.78 60.18 76.33 84.00 87.00 102.00 102.00 1.70
4402 76.4 84.8 43.89 53.34 66.73 87.38 59.66 76.36 66.20 79.30 88.50 92.80 1.56
6104 76.4 84.8 50.81 58.23 69.55 83.85 63.64 76.36 75.20 76.70 83.60 89.90 1.41
5504 76.4 84.8 42.99 57.70 65.95 88.59 61.68 76.43 76.00 90.00 103.00 113.00 1.83
5704 76.8 85.3 49.30 57.09 66.70 88.52 61.71 76.84 85.00 87.00 95.00 112.00 1.81
4602 77.2 85.6 58.43 64.55 71.65 83.09 68.01 77.16 73.00 80.70 81.10 87.00 1.28
6206 79.2 87.9 46.95 60.58 71.76 87.46 65.93 79.22 86.00 88.00 91.00 91.00 1.38
4002 79.3 88.0 50.46 61.83 69.61 90.25 65.61 79.26 90.00 91.00 94.00 96.00 1.46
2904 79.3 88.0 45.14 57.63 69.56 90.44 63.32 79.32 99.00 99.00 106.00 113.00 1.78
2604 79.6 88.3 51.98 61.38 68.99 91.77 65.07 79.57 96.00 112.00 121.00 121.00 1.86
5804 79.7 88.4 46.57 62.95 68.09 93.25 65.47 79.68 90.00 94.00 100.00 101.00 1.54
5204 82.1 91.1 55.45 65.99 73.35 91.89 69.57 82.10 93.00 94.00 100.00 104.00 1.49
3804 85.6 95.0 53.39 61.70 74.05 98.85 67.59 85.55 106.00 111.00 117.00 122.00 1.80
1901 93.1 103.3 72.16 78.37 84.25 102.83 81.26 93.08 89.70 89.90 101.50 123.30 1.52
Class 100-150mm 3004 110.2 122.4 67.21 81.73 97.14 125.11 89.10 110.24 135.00 146.00 162.00 167.00 1.87
2704 123.6 137.2 85.86 97.46 107.43 142.31 102.32 123.65 159.00 159.00 162.00 205.00 2.00
Note: Station 5004 M5-2day value falls into Class 60-75mm when considered to 2 significant figures
Full Quartile Summary of H1 and stabilised H1/M5 values
Class 60-75mm
N 44 Note : N value taken from Class Quartile Analysis
522
Quartile Return Period Stabilised Standardised Red. Variate Red. Variate
Parameter T H1 (mm) H1/M5 H1 (mm) y (N=44) y (N=522)
QM1 89.80 1.30 89.94
QM2 N = 44 99.67 1.45 100.20 3.77
QM3 105.00 1.55 107.18
QM4 9.5N = 418 137.00 2.02 139.97 6.03
M middle half 1.45N = 64 102.33 1.50 103.69 4.15
M upper half 4.5N = 198 121.00 1.78 123.57 5.29
H4 109.00 1.61 111.37 4.99
H3 122.00 1.69 117.16 5.32
H2 134.00 2.17 150.11 5.81
H1 155.00 2.20 152.63 6.84
Equivalent Table 2.5 in FSR II Met. Studies Plotting Positions
Full Quartile Summary of H1 and stabilised H1/M5 values
Class 75-100mm
N 21 Note : N value taken from Class Quartile Analysis
315
Quartile Return Period Stabilised Standardised Red. Variate Red. Variate
Parameter T H1 (mm) H1/M5 H1 (mm) y (N=21) y (N=315)
QM1 90.00 1.13 88.37
QM2 N = 21 98.19 1.25 97.45 3.02
QM3 110.16 1.39 109.08
QM4 9.5N = 200 122.20 1.51 117.84 5.29
M middle half 1.45N = 30 104.63 1.33 103.67 3.40
M upper half 4.5N = 95 114.35 1.43 112.08 4.54
H4 113.00 1.48 115.76 4.48
H3 121.00 1.49 116.37 4.81
H2 122.00 1.50 117.52 5.31
H1 123.30 1.52 119.27 6.33
Equivalent Table 2.5 in FSR II Met. Studies Plotting Positions
Full Quartile Summary of H1 and stabilised H1/M5 values
Class 100-150mm
N 58 Note : N value taken from Class Quartile Analysis
116
Quartile Return Period Stabilised Standardised Red. Variate Red. Variate
Parameter T H1 (mm) H1/M5 H1 (mm) y (N=58) y (N=116)
QM1 167.00 1.52 178.22
QM2 N = 58 167.00 1.52 178.22 4.05
QM3 205.00 1.63 190.69
QM4 9.5N = 551 205.00 1.63 190.69 6.31
M middle half 1.45N = 84 185.03 1.58 184.35 4.43
M upper half 4.5N = 261 205.00 1.63 190.69 5.56
H4 - - - 3.48
H3 - - - 3.81
H2 167.00 1.52 178.22 4.31
H1 205.00 1.63 190.69 5.33
Equivalent Table 2.5 in FSR II Met. Studies Plotting Positions
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C2 1 Hour rainfall quartile analysis
C2.1 Methodology
The 1 hour quartile analysis closely followed the 2 day analysis presented in Appendix C1. The primary difference in the analysis was that a fixed duration rebase factor of 1.16 was used in accordance with FEH Vol2 Table 10.1.
C2.2 1 hour annual maximum
1 hour rainfall data was only available at two rain gauges in the South East of the study area: Roches Point and Cork Airport. Both gauges tend to slightly higher growth factors (approximately 2.1 - 2.3 times the median annual rainfall compared with 1.8 - 1.9 for the 2 day duration) than the study averaged 2 day (Figures C2 and C3). This tendency of shorter durations producing steeper growth curves is not explicitly acknowledged in the FSR, but is apparent in the data contained in FSR Vol 2 Table 3.4.
2 5 10 20 50 100 1000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Gumbel Reduced Variate y
AM-1hr/Rmed-1hr
Return Period
Figure C2 1004 - Roches Point synoptic station Gringorton plotting positions
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2 5 10 20 50 100 1000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Gumbel Reduced Variate y
AM-1hr/Rmed-1hr
Return Period
Figure C3. 3904 - Cork Airport synoptic station Gringorten plotting positions
Tables C4 and C5 present the Quartiles results for the Roches Point and Cork Airport Synoptic stations. The primary deliverables from the 1 hr data analysis is the Jenkinson’s Ratio (Table C6 and Figure C6), used to determine the derive design rainfall depths for alternative storm durations.
Table C4 Roches Point quartile analysis results
QUARTILE ANALYSIS RESULTS SUMMARY
stn 1004
N 34
Quartile
Parameter
Return
Period Red. Variate
T y
QM1 2M 0.7 -0.08
QM2 1M 0.9 0.02
QM3 12.2 0.77
QM4 M10 16.8 2.32
M middle half M2 3.3 0.4
M upper half M5 14.3 1.55
H4 15.7 2.2
H3 17.6 2.6
H2 19.9 3.1
H1 24.5 4.1
AMfixed-1hr
x (mm)
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Table C5 Cork Airport quartile analysis results
QUARTILE ANALYSIS RESULTS SUMMARY
stn 3904
N 42
Quartile
Parameter
Return
Period Red. Variate
T y
QM1 2M 8.5 -0.08
QM2 1M 10.8 0.02
QM3 12.1 0.77
QM4 M10 16.7 2.32M middle
half M2 11.4 0.4
M upper half M5 14.2 1.55
H4 17.2 2.4
H3 18.5 2.8
H2 21.3 3.3
H1 22.6 4.3
AMfixed-1hr
x (mm)
Table C6 Jenkinson’s Ratio
1hr sliding duration rainfall values
Station M5-1hr M5-2day r r as %
1004 16.6 68.9 0.24 24
3904 16.5 82.7 0.20 20
Fixed duration values converted to sliding duration values in accordance with
FEH Volume 2 Section 10.4.1 to allow for discretisation.
See 1 Hr Annual Maximum Series Global Parameters for conversion rebase value.
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C3 Rainfall drawings
105
kilometres
0
1,000
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,1002,400
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,2001,250
1,300
1,350
1,450
1,550
1,600
950
24/10/2006
© Government of Ireland
OSi Permit Number EN-002-1006
Figure C.4
Lee CFRAMS
Standard Annual Average Rainfall
P:\Y6 Projects\Y6135 - River Lee FRAMS\Civil-CAD
SAAR (mm)
950 to 1,2501,250 to 1,5001,500 to 1,9001,900 to 2,400
Lee Catchment
105
kilometres
0
70
80
85
85
85
80
90
125
100
04/12/2007
© Government of Ireland
OSi Permit Number EN-002-1006
Figure C.5
Lee CFRAMS
Index Rainfall (5 year return period, 2 day duration)
P:\Y6 Projects\Y6135 - River Lee FRAMS\Civil-CAD
M5-2Day (mm)
70 to 8585 to 9090 to 100
100 to 125
Lee Catchment
105
kilometres
0
25
20
25
20
2520
04/12/2007
© Government of Ireland
OSi Permit Number EN-002-1006
Figure C.6
Lee CFRAMS
Jenkinson's Ratio (%)(M5-1hr/M5-2Day)
P:\Y6 Projects\Y6135 - River Lee FRAMS\Civil-CAD
Jenkinson's Ratio (%)
15 to 2525 to 3030 to 30
Lee Catchment
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Appendix D. Hydrometric analysis
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D1 Rating curve review
D1.1 Gauge 19001 at Ballea Bridge Upper on the Owenboy River
The gauging station at Ballea Bridge Upper consists of a crump weir located approximately 3m downstream of Ballea Bridge Upper with the staff gauge and recorder house located immediately downstream of the Bridge on the left bank of the channel. The weir is located between the bridge wing walls and has a width of 7.74m and a lowest crest elevation of 8.56mAOD. The Qmed value for the gauge is 17.4 m3/s.
The river channel flows through a narrow valley at the location of the gauge, with an average channel width of approximately 9 meters. The valley extents for 1.2 km upstream of the gauge and for 0.7 km downstream of the gauge. At the downstream extent the valley opens out. The left bank of the channel rises gradually to the R613 road which is approximately 2.7m above the river bed level at the location of the gauge. The R613 flanks the left bank of the Owenboy River for the full length of the valley. From the R613, the valley sides rise steeply and are heavily vegetated. The right bank of the river rises steeply from the bed of the river and is also heavily vegetated. Two structures are located along the study reach; Ballea Bridge Upper and the weir. The river is sinuous in plan form and the gauge is located on a slight bend in the river. The bed slope of the river is consistent along the study length and is approximately 1 in 380.
Figure D1 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19001
Ballea Bridge Upper is a single arch bridge which causes a back up of water at higher flows. Out of bank flows bypass the bridge along the R613 and spill back into the channel downstream of the Bridge. The hydraulic model consists of 11 channel cross sections and 3 structures. The weir is represented by ISIS spill units which define its geometry. A modular limit and weir coefficient determine the weir calculations for this structure. Bypass flows at Ballea Bridge Upper are also represented by a spill unit with survey data from the roadway defining its geometry. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 41m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. The model was calibrated against gauged data with adjustments to the following hydraulic parameters; weir coefficients, bridge coefficients and Manning’s n. Results of the rating review and a revised rating are shown in Figure D2 and Table D1. Analysis of the results shows that spilling of floodwaters along the roadway occurs when flows in the river exceed approximately 32m3/s.
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G19001 at Ballea Bridge
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings OPW RatingHalcrow recommended C = 2.5 n=0.040 (best f it) c = 2.1 n=0.04c = 2.5 n=0.030 c = 2.5 n=0.050 c = 1.8 n = 0.04c = 2.8 n = 0.04
Bankfull stage: 1.2m ASD
Figure D2 Rating curve for gauge 19001
Table D1 Rating equation values for gauge 19001
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.00 0.26 18.00 0.00 2.60
2 0.26 0.51 23.10 0.00 2.86
3 0.51 2.00 12.53 0.00 1.97
From the graph it can be seen that the model accurately represents the rating curve based on flow gauging up to a flow of approximately 8m3/s and slightly deviates from the flow gaugings up to the maximum spot gauge at 12.83m3/s. From the graph it can be seen that there is a significant departure of the revised rating curve when compared to the OPW rating curve from approximately 13m3/s.
D1.2 Gauge 19006 – Glanmire on the Glashaboy River
The gauging station at 19006 consists of an open channel section with flood plain flows which bypass the gauging station at higher water levels. The gauge is located along the left bank of
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the channel. The channel is approximately 11 m in width with a minimum bed elevation of 0.836 m AOD. The Qmed value for the gauge is 37.7 m3/s.
The study reach is approximately 1 km in length and is defined by a narrow floodplain which runs along the left bank of the channel. The right bank of the channel rises steeply to the R639 which is 3.7m above the bed level at the location of the gauge. There are 2 structures along the study reach; Glanmire Bridge which is approximately 550m downstream of the gauge and an old stone weir approximately 250m downstream of the gauge. The weir defines the highest point to which medium tides flow. The approach channel to the gauge is relatively straight with a more sinuous plan form upstream downstream of the gauge. The bed slope of the river is consistent along the study length and is approximately 1 in 315.
Figure D3 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19006
The hydraulic model consists of 20 cross sections and 2 structures. Flood plain storage and flows are modelled using ISIS reservoir units. 2 reservoir units model floodplain storage at the upstream and downstream extent of the floodplain. The reservoirs are linked with a floodplain cross section to model flows between the reservoirs. Channel cross sections are linked with spill units which model spilling of flood waters to the flood plain. The geometry for the spills was derived from the DTM data. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 73 m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. The model was calibrated against gauged data with adjustments to hydraulic parameters of weir coefficients and Manning’s n. Results of the rating review and a revised rating are shown in Figure D4 and Table D2
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G19006 at Glanmire
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge
(m
)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugingsEPA Rating Bankfulln=0.04 c=1.7 n=0.025 c=1.7n=0.032 c=1.7 (Best calibration) Halcrow recommended
Bankfull stage:1.712m ASD
Figure D4 Rating curve for gauge 19006
Table D2 Rating equation values for gauge 19006
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 0.234 2.29051 0 1.5697
2 0.234 0.350 2.29051 0 1.5697
3 0.350 1.390 2.618 0 1.82
4 1.390 1.410 2.805 0 1.2
5 1.410 2.400 2.52 0 2.12
The hydraulic influence of the weir on water levels at the gauging station was tested by adjusting the weir coefficient and was shown to be negligible. The results show that the model accurately represents the rating curve based on spot gauging up to a flow of approximately 10m3/s. There is a significant departure of the revised rating when compared to the EPA rating for flows upwards of 12m3/s. The best fit rating curve was achieved with a Mannings n of 0.032.
D1.3 Gauge 19011 – Leemount upper on the River Lee
Gauge 19011 is located approximately 40m upstream of Leemount Bridge on the left bank of the River Lee. The gauging station is located on an open channel section with good high flow measurements. The channel is uniform in width along the reach with a channel width of
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approximately 54m at the gauging station. The minimum bed level at the gauging site is 4m AOD. Flows along the river reach are controlled by the operation of Inishcarra reservoir 8.8 km upstream of the gauge. The Qmed value for the gauge is 208.6m3/s.
The study reach extends for approximately 500m upstream of Leemount Bridge and 250m downstream of Leemount Bridge. The bridge is the only major hydraulic structure along the study reach. The Shournagh River joins the River Lee 50m downstream of Leemount Bridge. The approach channel to the gauge is relatively straight and uniform. Downstream of the bridge the channel turns through 90 degrees. Upstream of the bridge floodplains exist on both the left and right banks with lower and more extensive flood plains along the right bank. Downstream of the bridge the floodplains are more extensive. The bed slope averages at 1 in 1500 along the full study length, with significant changes in bed slope immediately upstream and downstream of Leemount Bridge. The channel slopes upwards towards the upstream face of the bridge and downwards on the downstream face and probably as a result of both deposition and erosion respectively.
Figure D5 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19011
The hydraulic model consists of 18 cross sections. Floodplain flows are modelled through combined channel and floodplain cross sections. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 414m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. The model was calibrated against gauged data with adjustments to hydraulic parameters of bridge coefficients and Manning’s n. Results of the rating review are presented in Figure D6 and Table D3.
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19011 at Leemount Bridge Upper
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugingsHalcrow recommended n=0.04 C=1.0 (Best fit)ESB Rating n=0.034 C=1n=0.048 C=1 Spot gaugings at gauging stationC = 0 C = 1.4
Bankfull stage:2.992m ASD
Figure D6 Rating curve for gauge 19011
Table D3 Rating equation values for gauge 19011
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 2.000 50.576 -0.315 1.764
2 2.000 3.100 41.955 -0.088 1.664 3 3.100 3.900 31.681 0.202 1.760 4 3.900 4.200 38.076 -0.280 1.794
There is a good range of spot gauging including gauging with out of bank flows which to calibrate the model. From the graph there is evidence of the hydraulic influence of the bridge at higher flows which causes the backup of water and model instabilities. The best fit rating was achieved with a Manning’s n of 0.040.
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D1.4 Gauge 19012 – Leemount Lower on the River Lee
The gauging station at Leemount Lower is located on the right bank of the River Lee approximately 130m downstream of Leemount Bridge. The confluence of the River Lee and Shournagh River is approximately 60m upstream on the left bank of the River Lee. The gauging station is an open channel section with a minimum bed level of 4.32mAOD and is 51m wide. The gauge is situated above the floodplain so high flow measurements should be obtainable. Extensive floodplains are located along the left of the channel. The floodplain along the right of the channel is limited by the presence of the road embankment to the N22 Flows along the river reach are controlled by the operation of Inishcarra reservoir 8.8km upstream of the gauge. The Qmed value for the gauge is 185.3m3/s.
The study reach extends from upstream of Leemount Bridge to approximately 300m downstream of the gauge. The study reach is defined by wide floodplains downstream of the bridge. Leemount Bridge is the only major structure along the study reach and is approx 175m upstream of the gauge. The Shournagh River joins the River Lee approximately 125m upstream of the gauge. The bed slope averages at 1 in 1500 along the full study length, with significant changes in bed slope immediately upstream and downstream of Leemount Bridge. The channel slopes upwards towards the upstream face of the bridge and downwards on the downstream face and probably as a result of both deposition and erosion respectively.
Figure D7 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19012
During the early 1990’s significant land reclamation works were carried out at the right bank of the channel at the location of the gauge. The ESB noted that these works will have had a substantial affect on the rating curve particularly at low flows. There is limited spot gauge data available post these works.
The hydraulic model consists of 18 cross sections. Floodplain flows are modelled using merged channel and floodplain cross sections. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 414m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Results were exported to the analysis sheet with changes to hydraulic parameters of bridge coefficients and Manning’s n. Results of the rating review are presented in Figure D8 and Table D4.
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19012 at Leemount Bridge Lower
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Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommendedn=0.048 ESB Rating n=0.034n=0.040 (Best f it) Spot gauge data - post 1990
Bankfull stage:2.550m ASD
Figure D8 Rating curve for gauge 19012
Table D4 Rating equation values for gauge 19012
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 2.600 58.332 -0.505 1.684
2 2.600 2.980 51.432 -0.405 1.799 3 2.980 3.180 52.052 -0.675 2.081
4 3.180 3.500 51.252 -0.609 2.090
The rating curve shows good agreement with spot gauge data for both the pre-reclamation works and post reclamation works which would suggest that the reclamation works resulted in minimal impact on flows in the river. The best fit rating is achieved with a Manning’s n of 0.040,
D1.5 Gauge 19013 - Inishcarra on the River Lee
Gauge 19013 is located approximately 1km downstream of Inishcarra dam on the left bank of the river. Flows in the channel are controlled by the operation of the Inishcarra dam. The channel is approximately 50m wide at the location of the gauge and has a minimum bed level of 11.475mAOD
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The study reach extends from approximately 1.5km downstream of Inishcarra Dam to 1.7km further downstream. The river is confined to a narrow valley downstream of the dam and flows through a two stage channel. Further downstream, floodplains exist on the left bank which open out to the right and left banks nearer to Ballincollig. The channel is consistent in width and is relatively straight. There are no structures along the study reach and the bed is relatively flat with a bed slope of approximately 1 in 5000. The Qmed value for gauge 19013 is 218.5m3/s.
Figure D9 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19013
The hydraulic model consists of nine channel cross sections with floodplain flows modelled using merged channel and floodplain cross sections. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 440m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness coefficients were tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Figure D10 and Table D5..
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19013 at Inishcarra
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommended
n=0.040 ESB Rating n=0.028
n=0.034 n=0.030 (Best f it)
Bankfull stage:3.229m ASD
Figure D10 Rating curve for gauge 19013
Table D5 Rating equation values for gauge 19013
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 1.000 4.000 39.604 0.000 1.735
All spot gaugings for gauge 19013 were recorded at a permanent section 300m downstream of Inishcarra dam. There is a wide scatted in the spot gaugings at lower flows which the ESB attribute to weed growth in the channel. The ESB have calculated the rating curve based on spot gaugings above 13.4 m AOD. As we are mainly interested in high flow conditions, the revised rating curve is also based on spot gaugings above this level.
The modelled rating curve shows good agreement to ESB rating with relatively low Manning’s values. The best fit is achieved with a Manning’s n value of 0.030. From the site visit to the gauge it was noted that the channel was relatively clean and straight along the study reach which is in keeping with a low n value.
D1.6 Gauge 19014 – Dromcarra on the River Lee
Dromcarra gauging station is located upstream of Dromcarra Bridge on the right bank of the River Lee. The gauge is located on an open channel section approximately 20m in width and with a minimum bed level of 65.694mAOD. The gauge is located well above the floodplain so
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good high flow measurements should be obtainable. The Qmed value for gauge 19014 is 71.8m3/s.
The study reach extends for approximately 500m upstream of the gauge and 900m downstream of the gauge. Dromcarra Bridge is the most significant structure along the study reach and is 153m downstream of the gauge. A flat crested weir is located immediately downstream of the bridge. The gauging cross section is reasonably representative of the channel along the study reach The right bank of the channel rises steeply to the R587 which prevents out of bank flows along the right bank. Out of bank flows will spill into the floodplain along the left bank of the channel and continue in a downstream direction. The spilling of flood waters past the bridge is prevented by both the embanked ground to the R587 and the high bridge abutments. The channel is relatively straight along the study reach and has a bed slope of 1 in 370.
Figure D11 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19014
The hydraulic model consists of ten channel cross sections with floodplain flows modelled using merged channel and floodplain cross sections. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 182m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness coefficients, weir coefficients and bridge coefficients were tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Figure D12 and Table D6.
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19014 at Dromcarra
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommended
n=0.040 ESB Rating n=0.034
n=0.028 Bridge af f lux = 0.5 Weir coefficient c = 1.5
Bankfull stage:1.694m ASD
Figure D12 Rating curve for gauge 19014
Table D6 Rating equation values for gauge 19011
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 1.149 38.214 -0.250 1.901
2 1.149 1.780 36.160 -0.249 1.560 3 1.780 3.000 34.223 -0.255 1.690
The spot gaugings show there is a seasonality issue between winter and summer spot gaugings. This is probably caused by weed growth in the channel during summer months. The rating curve shows good agreement to ESB rating up o a flow of 40m3/s. The steeper upper rating suggested by the model shows the influence of Dromcarra Bridge on water levels at the gauge for higher flows.
D1.7 Gauge 19015 – Healy’s Bridge on the Shournagh River
Gauge 19015 is located downstream of Healy’s Bridge on the left bank of the Shournagh River. The gauge is located at an open channel section and has a width of 21.46m and a minimum bed level of 10.734mAOD. High flow measurements should be obtainable as the gauge is located well above the river bed. The Qmed value for the gauge is 70.5m3/s.
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The study reach extends for 1.5km with the river confined to a narrow valley for the full extent of the study reach. Healy’s Bridge and the weir immediately downstream of the bridge are the two main structures along the study reach. Spilling of floodwaters past Healy’s Bridge is constricted by the high bridge abutments and road embankment. The bed slope averages at 1 in 470 over the first 1000m with a steeper bed slope of 1 in 200 over the remainder of the reach.
Figure D13 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19015
The hydraulic model has been constructed using twelve channel cross sections. The two stage channel has been created by merging the channel cross sections with DTM data. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 138m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness coefficients, weir coefficients and bridge coefficients were tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Table D7 and Figure D14.
Table D7 Rating equation values for gauge 19015
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 1.264 20.977 -0.150 1.855
2 1.264 1.553 20.957 -0.150 1.855
3 1.553 1.710 20.200 -0.132 1.985 4 1.710 2.300 19.870 -0.159 2.150
5 2.300 2.700 19.870 -0.139 2.155
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19015 at Healys Bridge
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommended
n=0.040 ESB Rating n=0.034
n=0.055 n=0.038 (Best f it)
Bankfull stage:1.958m ASD
Figure D14 Rating curve for gauge 19015
The rating curve shows good agreement to the spot gauge data and calibrates best with a Manning’s n value of 0.038.
D1.8 Gauge 19016 – Oven’s Bridge on the River Bride
Gauging station 19016 is located approximately 5m upstream of Oven’s Bridge on the right bank of the channel. The gauge is located on an open channel section which has a minimum bed level of 20.795m AOD and a maximum width of approximately 22m. High flow measurements should be obtainable as the gauge is located above the floodplain. The Qmed
value for gauge 19016 is 29.5m3/s.
The study reach extends for 720m upstream of the gauge and a further 575m downstream of the gauge. The approach channel to the gauge is straight with the river showing a sinuous plan form further upstream and downstream of the bridge. Ovens Bridge is the main structure along the study reach and comprises of three box sections. A weir and fish pass are located directly downstream of the bridge. Floodplain flows will occur on both the left and right banks of the channel. Floodplain flows are constricted at Oven’s Bridge by the N22 road embankment which will cause floodplain flows to pond upstream of the bridge. Upstream of the bridge the channel has a bed slope of 1 in 390. Downstream of the bridge the bed slope increases to 1 in 180.
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Figure D15 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19016
The hydraulic model has been constructed using 15 channel cross sections. The floodplains are represented by merging the channel cross sections with the DTM data. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 120m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness coefficients, weir coefficients and bridge coefficients were tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Figure D16 and Table D8.
19016 at Ovens
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Sta
ge (
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spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings ESB Rating
n=0.028 (best calibration) Halcrow rating n=0.022
n=0.04
Bankfull stage:1.89 mASD
Figure D16 Rating curve for gauge 19016
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Table D8 Rating equation values for gauge 19016
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 0.270 11.721 -0.050 1.811
2 0.270 0.600 43.602 -0.050 2.679 3 0.600 2.000 30.000 -0.050 1.980
The ratings at gauge 19016 were affected by reconstruction works to the bridge and the weir in the 1970’s and 1980’s. The latest ESB rating applied to values recorded post 1984.
There is a limited range of spot gauging to calibrate the rating curve. The model was calibrated using spot gaugings post 1984. The rating calibrates best with a Manning’s n value of 0.028. The revised rating shows a significant difference to the ESB rating for higher flows. The steeper curve of the revised rating indicates that the road embankment to the bridge has a hydraulic influence on water levels at the gauge not reflected in the ESB rating.
D1.9 Gauge 19018 – Tower on the Shournagh River
The gauge at Tower is an open channel section located on the left bank of the Shournagh River approximately 30m upstream of Tower Bridge. The channel is approximately 9m wide and has a minimum bed level of 19.84mAOD. The gauge is located approximately 1m above the top of bank level which may affect the measurement of very high water levels. The gauge recording equipment has been removed from this site. The Qmed value for the gauge is 70.2m3/s.
The channel cross section at the gauge is reasonably representative of the study reach which extend for 450m upstream of the gauge and 380m downstream of the gauge. Upstream of the bridge out of bank flows will spill to a narrow floodplain along the right bank of the river. The floodplain averages 20m in width and is bounded by an earth embankment which protects properties in Tower. The left bank of the channel is heavily forested and has a steep gradient from the top of the bank apart from an area just upstream of the bridge which is a forested flat ground approximately 20m in width. Downstream of the bridge an embankment protects floodplain along the left bank of the channel. At the golf course the right bank floodplain opens out. Tower Bridge is a four arch bridge and the only structure along the study reach. A bypass culvert is located on the right bank of the bridge for passing higher river flows. At higher flows the bridge will constrict flows and cause the back up of water. The approach channel to the gauge is relatively straight with the river showing a sinuous plan form further upstream and downstream of the bridge. The bed slope is consistent along the study reach at 1 in 415.
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Figure D17 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19018
The hydraulic model has been constructed using twelve channel cross sections. The floodplains are represented by merging the channel cross sections with the DTM data. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 108m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness coefficients and bridge coefficients were tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Figure D18 and Table D9.
19018 at Tower
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Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings n=0.040EPA rating 2003 n=0.050 n=0.034C = 1.2 C=0.8 EPA Rating 2005Halcrow recommended
Bankfull stage:0.80m ASD
Figure D18 Rating curve for gauge 19018
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Table D9 Rating equation values for gauge 19018
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.084 0.300 10.2714 0 1.5905
2 0.300 0.532 36.8606 0 2.65 3 0.532 1.020 17.915 0 1.681 4 1.020 1.500 17.995 0 1.835
5 1.500 2.000 18.175 0 1.845 6 2.000 2.700 18.305 0 1.844
The rating curve shows good agreement to EPA spot gaugings with a best fit achieved with a Manning’s n value of 0.040.
D1.10 Gauge 19020 – Ballyedmond on the Owennacurra River
The gauge at Ballyedmond is an open channel section located at the interchange between a steep sided valley and open flat floodplains. The gauge is sited high enough up above the top of the bank to gain accurate high flow records. The gauging channel section is approximately 10m wide and has a minimum bed level of 23.028mAOD. The Qmed value for gauge 19020 is 22.5m3/s.
Upstream of the gauge the river meanders through a steep sided valley with the R626 flanking the right bank of the river. The Leamlara River joins the Owennacurra River approximately 50m upstream of the gauge. Directly downstream of the gauge the valley opens out with extensive floodplains along the left bank of the River. Out of bank flows along the right bank of the channel are constricted by the R626 embankment. The only structure along the study reach is a wooden footbridge approximately 350m downstream of the gauge. The footbridge will have a minimal impact on water in the river. The bed slope is relatively consistent along the 1km study reach at 1 in 180.
Figure D19 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19020
The hydraulic model has been constructed using ten channel cross sections. The floodplains are represented by merging the channel cross sections with the DTM data. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 50m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness coefficients were
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tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Figure D20 and Table D10.
G19020 at Ballyedmond
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Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommendedn=0.040 n=0.050 EPA Ratingn=0.035 n=0.045 (Best f it)
Bankfull stage:1.5m ASD
Figure D20 Rating curve for gauge 19020
Table D10 Rating equation values for gauge 19020
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 0.374 28.986 0.000 3.428
2 0.374 0.895 10.011 0.000 2.347
3 0.895 1.417 9.530 0.000 1.901 4 1.417 2.000 9.564 0.000 1.931 5 2.000 2.500 9.217 0.000 1.995
The rating curve shows good agreement to EPA spot gaugings with the higher range of Manning’s n values. The best fit was achieved with a Manning’s n of 0.045.
D1.11 Gauge 19031 – Macroom on the Sullane River
Gauge 19031 is an open channel gauging section located on the right bank of the Sullane River at the Macroom Sewage Treatment works. The channel is 45m in width and has a minimum bed level of 62.263mAOD at the gauging station. The cross section is reasonably representative of the channel along the study reach. The gauge is located approximately
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1.3km downstream of Macroom Bridge and is approximately 800m upstream of New Bridge. The River Laney joins the River Sullane 170m upstream of New Bridge. Out of bank flows will spill to a narrow floodplain along the left bank of the river with embankments limiting floodplain flows along the right bank of the channel. The river is sinuous in plan form and has a bed slope which averages 1 in 550 along the study reach. There are two structures along the study reach; New Bridge and a flat crested weir immediately downstream of New Bridge. The Qmed value for gauge 19031 is 141.7m3/s.
Figure D21 Photo and channel cross section for gauge 19031
The hydraulic model has been constructed using 25 channel cross sections. The floodplains are represented by merged channel cross sections and LIDAR DTM data. Two structures along the study reach are represented with ISIS weir and bridge units. The upstream model boundary consists of an unsteady hydrograph with a peak flow of 242m3/s. The downstream boundary consists of a normal depth boundary unit. Roughness and structure coefficients were tested in the sensitivity analysis with results of the rating review presented in Figure
D20 and Table D10.
Table D11 Rating equation values for gauge 19031
Section Minimum stage (m)
Maximum stage (m)
C a b
1 0.000 2.900 33.976 -0.030 1.811
2 2.900 3.100 34.076 -0.060 1.829
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19031 in Macroom
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Flow (m³/s)
Sta
ge (
m)
spot gaugings w inter spot gaugings Halcrow recommended
ESB Rating n=0.032 n=0.040
n=0.042 (Best calibration) 0.048
lBankfull stage:2.353m ASD
Figure D22 Rating curve for gauge 19031
The rating curve shows good agreement to ESB spot gaugings for the full range of spot gaugings. The rating curve calibrates best with a channel Manning’s n value of 0.042.
D2 Hydrometric gauge growth curve
D2.1 Overview
Appendix D3 and D4 provides further elaboration on the hydrological analysis described in Section 6. In particular, the rationale behind the L-Moments analysis, Storm-Flood return period relationship and unit hydrograph methodology is presented.
D2.2 Statistical distribution
The hydrological statistical analysis undertaken is based on the L-Moments distribution fitting techniques presented in the FEH and Hosking et al 1997.
Typically, annual maximum flood records in Ireland have tended to be analysed using the Extreme Value 1 distribution, fitted using the Method of Moments technique (NERC, 1975 Vol
I S1.3.4 and Cunnane et al 1975). However research undertaken since the FSR was published now suggests that the Method of Moments technique can result in poor results when data is strongly skewed. “since skewness is a feature of many flood series, L-moments
are the preferred over conventional moments in flood frequency analysis” (IOH, 1999 Vol 3
S14.2.1).
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While the Method of Moments approach is based on defining the mean, scale and skewness of a data series, the L-Moments approach is differentiated by determining the mean, scale and skewness of linear combinations of a data series. The L-Moments are often reduced to the dimensionless L-Moment ratios, to assist in comparison and the pooling of data series. The three ratios are defined as the L-CV (coefficient of L-variation), L-skewness (a shape parameter) and L-kurtosis (a description of the peak or bulge of a distribution)
The determination of a data series’ L-Moment ratios is a multi step process, yet common for all distributions.
Two statistical distributions are commonly considered in the analysis of annual maximum flood records in Ireland; The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) (of which the EV1 distribution is special case) and the Generalised Logistic (GL). The GEV distribution was found to be the most representative distribution for flood event analysis in the FSR; however the subsequent FEH found that UK catchments had a stronger tendency towards the GL distribution. The FEH also outlined further underlying reasoning behind the appropriateness of the GL distribution, including the GL resulting in fewer bounded above growth curves being derived than the GEV distribution. While other distributions do exist, there is a lack of sufficient research available at the time of the study to suggest their appropriateness for use in flood event analysis in Ireland.
Utilising the L-Moments technique to the study data sets, the most representative distribution is determined by the proximity of site L-Moment ratios to the theoretical distribution. Figure
D23 illustrates that most of the site L-Moment ratios, including the study weighted average (weighted based on gauge record length) are in a closer proximity to the theoretical GEV distribution as opposed to GL. On this basis, the GEV distribution was found to be the most appropriate distribution for the analysis of the Lee catchment. This finding appears to be consistent with ongoing research being undertaken by the Flood Studies Update researchers on catchments throughout Ireland.
Due to the potential influence of the operation of the hydroelectric dams on the distribution of extreme flows, averaged L-Moment ratios excluding the downstream Lee gauges (19013, 19012 and 19011) were used.
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GL
GEV
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
L-Skewness
L-K
urt
osis
Study Averaged (Total) Study Averaged (Without Gauges D/S of Reservoirs)
Figure D23 Hydrometric gauge L-Moment Ratio diagram compared with theoretical GEV and GL distributions
D2.3 Study-rainfall growth curve relationship
One inherent difficulty with a rainfall runoff approach is while the model can be calibrated to match statistical derived design floods at a defined return period (or in the case of this study the index flood Qmed); the model does not automatically guarantee that rainfall-runoff derived flood peaks match the statistically derived floods for different return periods. The FSR approached the discrepancy by defining an averaged relationship between flood return period and storm return period (FSR Figure I6.54) where recommended FSR catchment characteristics are used. However, within the seven catchments considered by the FSR, considerable variation existed. For example, the FSR found that the 50 year flood was produced from storm return periods ranging between 60 and 128 years, averaged at 81 years.
Rigid application of the FSR relationship ignores regional growth curve differences, particularly relevant in the case of FSR application in Ireland (UK rainfall growth curves used in conjunction with Ireland regional flood growth curve) or in the case of this study where study specific rainfall and flood growth curves have been developed.
The FEH continues of the FSR rainfall-flood growth curve approach, while acknowledging that considerable variation existed in the seven catchments used by the FSR (FEH V4 3.1.1). However, the recently published FEH supplementary report 1 (FEHS1) (CEH 2007) provides a more comprehensive consideration of the means of calibrating the FSR rainfall-runoff method than suggested in either the FSR or FEH. The report identifies three alternatives to
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calibrating the rainfall runoff method (broadened here to be relevant to the FSR method) (FEHS1 D.2):
• Vary rainfall depth with return period (as done in the FSR and FEH);
• Vary soil moisture with return period;
• Alter the rainfall-runoff equations to alter the growth curve relationship (FEH S1).
The FEH S1 approach adopts the third alternative by altering the loss model to include a calibration factor. The approach also fixes the storm return period to be equal to the flood return period. Unfortunately, the use of the FEH S1 is not possible in this study due to the absence of defined Irish catchment parameters and the potential inappropriateness of using empirical relationships derived solely from UK data.
In the case of this study, the large amount of statistical record warrants a redefining of the flood-storm return period relationship to ensure that generated hydrographs are consistent with the derived study growth curve.
Figure D24 illustrates the relationship between the growth curve derived from direct application of the rainfall runoff method (where flood return period equals storm return period) and the study hydrology growth curve. For flood events less than 1 in 100 years, the corresponding storm return period is found to under predict the flood. However, flood events greater than the 1 in 100 year are found to be considerably over predicted by the corresponding storm return period. Table D12 provides the recommended flood-storm relationships for the Lee CFRAM Study, in relation to the FSR. The recommended study storm return periods adjust the rainfall-runoff curve shown on Figure D24 to correspond with the Study growth curve.
Table D12 Study flood-storm return period relationship compared with the Flood Studies Report
Storm Return Period (yr) Flood Return
Period (yr) Recommended
Study Flood Studies
Report
2 2 - 5 8 8 10 17 17 50 56 80 100 98 140 200 173 - 1000 578 1000
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2 5 1005010 1000200
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Gumbel Reduced Variation
Gro
wth
Facto
r (R
eb
ased
to
Qm
ed
) Rainfall Runoff Method
Study Hydrology Growth Curve
Return Period (yr)
Figure D24 Study growth curve derived from hydrometric records compared with Rainfall Runoff Method growth curve
D2.4 Gauge growth curves
Calculated growth curves at hydrometric stations are contained in Figures D25 to D35. The Growth curves have been calculated using the L-Moments fitting techniques outlined previously. The Generalised Logistic growth curve has a tendency to predict higher flood events, than the Generalised Extreme Value distribution adopted in this study at all gauges.
19001: Owenboy at Ballea
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D25 19001- Owenboy at Ballea GEV and GL growth curves
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19006: Glashaboy at Glanmire
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D26 19006- Glashaboy at Glanmire GEV and GL growth curves
19011: Lee at Upper Leemount
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fa
cto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D27 19006- Glashaboy at Glanmire GEV and GL growth curves
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D28
19012: Lee at Lower Leemount
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fa
cto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D28 19012- Lee at Lower Leemount GEV and GL growth curves
19013: Lee at Inniscarra
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D29 19013- Lee at Inishcarra GEV and GL growth curves
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D29
19014: Lee at Dromcarra
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D30 19014 - Lee at Dromcarra GEV and GL growth curves
19015: Shournagh at Healy's Bridge
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fa
cto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D31 19015 - Shournagh at Healy’s Bridge GEV and GL growth curves
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D30
19016: Bride at Owens
GEVGL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
facto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D32 19016 – Bride at Ovens GEV and GL growth curves
19018: Shournagh at Tower
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fa
cto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D33 19018 – Shournagh at Tower GEV and GL growth curves
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D31
19020: Owennacurra at Ballyedmond
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fa
cto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D34 19020 – Owennacurra at Ballyedmond GEV and GL growth curves
19031: Sullane at Macroom
GEV
GL
Return Period (yr)
2 5 10 20 50 100 200 10000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Gumbel Reduced Variate
Gro
wth
fa
cto
r (Q
/Qm
ed
)
Figure D35 19031 – Sullane at Macroom GEV and GL Growth Curves
D3 FSR unit hydrograph analysis
D3.1 Overview
The FSR unit hydrograph technique is outlined in FSR Volume 1 Chapter 6, with modifications outlined in the Flood Studies Supplementary Report 16.
The following deviations were made from the standard FSR Unit Hydrograph approach:
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D32
(i) Study M5-2Day, Jenkinson’s ratio and SAAR rainfall values (Section 5.3);
(ii) Study storm-flood return period relationship (Section 6.5.2);
(iii) Study unit hydrograph (Section 6.5.1);
(iv) FEH Donor Catchment approach for ungauged catchments, where SPR and Tp values are scaled from gauged catchments (Section 6.2.3).
Modifications to the FSR approach were either made based on flow and rainfall data available (items i to iv) or advances in hydrological techniques (item iv). All alternations provide a discernable improvement in flood estimation accuracy over direct application of FSR methodologies.
D3.2 Rainfall methodology
Principle rainfall input parameters to the analysis:
• M5-2Day (Figure C5);
• Jenkinson’s Ratio (Figure C6);
• SAAR (Figure C4).
Standard FSR tables are used to translate the rainfall input parameters:
• M5-D (FSR Vol 2 Table 3.10);
• MT-D (FSR Vol 2 Table 2.9);
• ARF (FSR Vol 2 Table 5.2).
D3.3 Unit hydrograph methodology
The unit hydrograph analysis was undertaken in accordance with the steps outlined in FSR Vol1 6.8.2, with revised formula introduced in the Flood Studies Supplementary Report 16 (Table D13) and methodology modifications outlined in Section D3.1.
Primary sub catchment inputs to the analysis are outlined in Table D14. Rainfall parameters were interpolated and assigned to subcatchments using the ArcView Spatial Analyst (Tin grid) GIS package. Catchment Area, MSL, S1085, Soil indices and Urban Fraction were assigned to subcatchments using the MapInfo GIS package spatial query functions. Rainfall duration figures are provided for the critical rainfall duration.
The implementation of the unit hydrograph analysis was automated using in-house Microsoft Excel VBA programmes. Tables D15 to D17 and Figure D35 presents an example of intermediate analysis stages for the Uplee 1 subcatchment.
Full design hydrographs and spreadsheets are provided in study handover digital data.
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D33
Table D13 FSR and FSSR 16 Unit Hydrograph equations
0.230.542.20.33 MSLSAARURBAN)(1283S1085Tp(0) −−−
+=
5/)0(TpT ≅
2/)0()( TTpTTp +=
RAINCWIRURAL DPRDPRSPRPR ++=
553447337230110 SSSSSSPR ++++=
)125(25.0 −= CWIDPRCWI
7.0)40(45.0 −= PDPRRAIN for P>40mm or 0 for P<40mm
)3.0(70)3.00.1( URBANURBANPRPR RURALTOTAL +−=
510)5.50.3)125(33( −
×++−= SAARCWIANSF
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D35
Table D14 Existing catchment unit hydrograph parameters
Rainfall
Duration (hr)
M5-2D
ay (m
m)
r (M5-1hr/M
5-2D
ay)
Sub C
atchment
Area (km2)
Urban
SAAR
(mm
)S1085 (m
/km)
MSL
(km)
Soil1Soil2
Soil3Soil4
Soil5
upper leeuplee1
10013
83.00.21
80.30.00
117712.1
18.80.0
0.80.0
0.00.2
upper leeuplee2
10015
85.70.20
96.10.00
12578.5
23.50.0
0.50.0
0.00.5
upper leeuplee3
10011
112.40.20
74.30.01
171614.2
14.60.0
0.10.0
0.20.8
upper leeuplee4
10023
93.30.20
144.00.01
14652.2
18.30.0
0.50.0
0.20.3
upper leeuplee5
10025
80.50.22
88.40.01
11650.2
16.30.0
0.90.0
0.00.0
upper leeuplee6
10025
86.10.20
138.10.00
12850.1
13.60.0
0.50.0
0.40.1
upper leeuplee7
10011
125.00.20
54.50.00
197610.2
11.20.0
0.00.0
0.40.6
upper leeuplee8
10029
101.30.20
116.20.00
15510.4
18.20.0
0.00.0
0.70.3
upper leeU
pper Lee to 19014100
21108.9
0.20170.8
0.001687
4.129.4
0.00.0
0.00.6
0.4
upper leeU
pper Lee to 19031100
1399.8
0.20218.3
0.011551
7.532.8
0.00.3
0.00.2
0.5tranm
oretran1
1007
80.20.25
7.60.71
10632.8
3.40.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
tranmore
tran2100
382.8
0.252.1
0.091106
64.81.7
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0tranm
oretran3
1005
80.00.25
3.40.20
107120.0
4.70.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
tranmore
tran4100
380.4
0.253.5
0.201086
55.42.5
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0tranm
oretran5
1005
81.50.25
4.60.40
10889.1
2.20.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owennacurra
owen1
10025
82.20.25
73.90.00
110011.2
13.70.0
0.90.0
0.00.1
owennacurra
owen2
10023
79.90.25
32.30.04
10724.9
5.40.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owennacurra
owen3
10023
82.50.25
36.90.00
11259.3
12.30.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owennacurra
owen4
10023
78.50.25
5.60.17
10320.9
2.90.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owennacurra
owen5
10021
78.20.25
9.90.11
10332.1
1.90.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owennacurra
owen6
10021
77.40.25
11.30.00
10100.3
2.00.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
Ow
enboyO
wenboy to 19001
10023
83.80.25
103.60.02
11831.1
24.00.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owenboy
boy1100
1180.6
0.259.7
0.041091
2.42.8
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
owenboy
boy2100
582.3
0.253.0
0.241114
39.03.3
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
owenboy
boy3100
383.4
0.252.1
0.401128
39.83.1
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
owenboy
boy4100
1384.4
0.2517.4
0.001156
1.15.9
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
owenboy
boy5100
585.0
0.252.3
0.001191
38.22.3
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
owenboy
boy6100
585.0
0.256.4
0.001200
41.72.1
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0ow
enboyboy7
10011
85.00.24
35.00.00
120813.7
8.80.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owenboy
boy8100
1385.0
0.2523.4
0.001207
1.06.6
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0ow
enboyboy9
10011
81.30.25
25.70.12
10951.5
4.40.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
owenboy
boy10100
1385.0
0.244.2
0.001215
1.82.9
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
lower lee
lowlee1
10013
81.30.24
63.40.00
11336.8
13.80.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee2
10013
82.20.22
70.30.00
11388.8
20.40.0
0.70.0
0.20.2
lower lee
lowlee3
10011
80.40.24
24.50.01
10869.5
7.70.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee4
10013
80.50.22
41.20.00
108611.0
7.50.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee5
10011
80.20.24
8.60.20
10401.0
6.70.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee6
1005
80.40.25
7.70.74
10524.4
6.30.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee7
10011
81.50.24
9.50.09
10812.9
2.30.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee8
1007
83.40.24
6.60.00
113428.3
4.70.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee9
1005
83.60.25
10.60.07
112924.6
4.10.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee10
1007
84.10.24
11.90.00
115221.1
7.30.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee11
10023
83.90.23
62.90.00
11641.5
16.10.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee12
10015
87.80.21
49.20.00
12498.2
16.30.0
0.40.0
0.60.0
lower lee
lowlee13
10013
80.00.25
18.60.66
10030.1
9.80.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee14
10013
80.20.23
19.20.11
10422.3
8.80.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee15
10013
80.00.24
15.30.11
10503.1
8.60.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
lower lee
lowlee to 19016
10023
85.60.2
112.10.00
12014.4
32.40.0
0.70.0
0.30.0
lower lee
Lowlee to 19015
10021
81.30.2
214.60.01
11147.1
29.00.0
0.90.0
0.10.1
glashaboyglash1
10023
84.20.25
38.20.00
117610.1
11.80.0
0.90.0
0.00.1
glashaboyglash2
10021
82.60.24
37.90.04
11189.4
9.20.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
glashaboyglash3
10023
84.20.25
43.70.01
11179.8
12.90.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
glashaboyglash4
10013
81.40.25
19.40.04
106417.3
8.00.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
glashaboyglash5
10025
80.00.25
5.90.26
10280.4
3.60.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
glashaboyG
lashaboy to 19006100
2583.4
0.2139.2
0.021126
9.821.1
0.01.0
0.00.0
0.0
carrigothillcarig1
10017
80.10.25
8.40.04
10493.0
1.10.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
carrigothillcarig2
10029
80.90.25
7.00.05
10580.9
4.60.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
carrigothillcarig3
10017
79.70.25
5.40.04
10280.1
1.00.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
carrigothillcarig4
10013
79.80.25
1.30.12
10203.3
1.20.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
bridebride1
1009
80.40.25
20.20.02
108416.4
2.90.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
bridebride2
10013
80.00.25
12.50.25
10400.3
2.70.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
bridebride3
1005
80.00.25
9.00.41
103913.9
3.80.0
1.00.0
0.00.0
Model
Rainfall Param
eters
Sub Catchm
ent R
eference
Flow
Return
Period (yr)
FSR C
atchment Param
eters
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D37
Table D15 Uplee1 subcatchment unit hydrograph definition
Lee CFRAM STUDY
Subcatchment: uplee1
UNIT HYDROGRAPH CALCULATION
1. Unit Hydrograph
(a) Time to Peak, T'pTime to peak for Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IHU) is given by formula(refer FSSR No. 16)
Tp(0) = 283*(SI085^-0.33)*((1+URBAN)^-2.2)*(SAAR^-0.54)*(MSL^0.23)
Tp(0) = 5.37
Tp(0)Doner Catchment 4.67Now, SI085 12.0588 m/km
URBAN 0.00E+00 Urban fractionSAAR 1177.17 mm Fig II 3.1 (I) Avg Annual rainfallMSL 18.7967 km Mean stream lengthAREA 80.3 km²
Select time interval, Tau, as follows:-
Tau = 1.07 hr say 1.00 hr (rounded)
T'p = T'p + (Tau)/2 = 5.17 hr say 5.20 hr (FSSR 16)
(b) (Time) Base Length of Unit Hydrograph
T'B = 17.7 hrs
(c) Flow at Time to Peak, Q'p
Q'p = 190.9/T'p per 100 km2= 29.47 cumecs
10mm 1 hr Unit Hydrograph
Time Flow
(Hrs) (Cumecs)
0 0.04.16 13.95.20 29.58.32 10.8
17.68 0.0
10mm Unit Hydrograph
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0 5 10 15 20
Hours
Q (
cu
mecs
)
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D39
Table D16 Uplee1 subcatchment design rainfall analysis
Lee CFR
AMS
Subcatchment:
uplee1
2. Design Storm
D =
(1+SAAR/1000) * T'P
(FSR
)H
owever the design storm
used can be defined by the userD
FSR=
11.32hrs
Duser
13.00hrs
13intervals (needs to be an uneven num
ber)m
ultiple of1.00
hr
(b) Design Storm
Return Period
Selecting a 100 year Return Period for a flood constitutes taking a different R
eturn Period for the Design Storm
T=
98years
(c) Design Storm
Rainfall
Require
13R98
(i)2-D
ay R5 =
83m
mfrom
Fig II 3.2 (I)
(ii)r
=60-m
in, R5
=0.21
from Fig II 3.5(I)
2-Day R
5
(iii) rD
=0.62
Calculated rD
for r=0.21 D=13
(Table 3.10)(iv)
13R5 =
2-Day R
5 x rD=
51.23m
m
(v)G
rowth factor R
98/R5 for 13R
5 = 51.2 mm
is1.71
(Table 2.9)
(vi)13R
98=m
m
(vii)Areal R
eduction Factor, ARF
Total A=80.3
km²
D=
13.00hrs
ARF
=0.92
Calculate AR
F for A = 80.3022km D
= 13(Table 5.2)
(viii)D
esign Storm Areal R
ainfall, P
P=
mm
(d) percentage Run-O
ff
PRTO
TAL =PR
RU
RA
L *(1-(0.3*UR
BAN))+70(0.3*U
RBAN
)
(i)SPR
=42.95
%= (10S1 + 30S2 + 37S3 + 47S4 + 53S5) x SPR
Doner C
atchment A
djustment
where
Sone0
Stwo
0.81Fig I 4.18(I)
Sthree0
Fraction of catchment D
efined by S1…S5
Sfour####
Sfive####
(ii)D
PRC
WI =
0= 0.25 (C
WI - 125)
where
CW
I=
125for SAAR
=1177
mm
Refer to FSR
I, Fig 6.62
(iii)D
PRR
AIN
=6.03
Note if P<40m
m then D
PRR
AIN =0
Where P =
mm
(iv)PR
RU
RAL =
48.97%
=SP
R+D
PRC
WI +D
PRR
AIN
(v)PR
TOTA
L =48.97
% =
PRR
UR
AL *(1-(0.3*UR
BAN))+(70*(0.3*U
RBAN
))
(vi)N
et rainfall over catchment
=39.53
mm
=3.95
cm
(e) Storm Profile
A symm
etrical design rainfall pattern is established using the 75% W
inter Profile(Fig 3, C
unnane & Lynn's Paper)
39.53m
m is distributed over
13.00hrs in
13intervals of
1hrs each
7peak interval
12
34
56
78
910
1112
1314
1516
1718
1920
2122
23Interval of 1 hr
12
34
56
78
910
1112
130
00
00
00
00
0%
of storm duration
7.715.4
23.130.8
38.546.2
53.861.5
69.276.9
84.692.3
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0%
of storm rain
1.54.3
9.115.1
25.540.3
59.774.5
84.990.9
95.798.5
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0100.0
100.0%
of storm interval
1.52.8
4.86.0
10.414.8
19.514.8
10.46.0
4.82.8
1.50.0
0.00.0
0.00.0
0.00.0
0.00.0
0.0
0.060.11
0.190.24
0.410.58
0.770.58
0.410.24
0.190.11
0.060.00
0.000.00
0.000.00
0.000.00
0.000.00
0.00
87.46
Net rain in interval
(cm)
80.71
80.71
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D40
Table D17 Uplee1 subcatchment unit hydrograph ordinates
h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 h7 h8 h9 h10 h11 h12 h13 h14 h15 h16 h17 h18 h19 h20 h21 h22 h23 h24 h25 h26 h27 h28 h29 h30 h31
3.34 6.68 10.02 13.36 26.48 24.69 18.71 12.72 10.02 8.87 7.71 6.56 5.40 4.25 3.10 1.94 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
r1 0.05 0.17 0.33 0.50 0.67 1.32 1.23 0.94 0.64 0.50 0.44 0.39 0.33 0.27 0.21 0.15 0.10 0.04r2 0.10 0.33 0.67 1.00 1.34 2.65 2.47 1.87 1.27 1.00 0.89 0.77 0.66 0.54 0.43 0.31 0.19 0.08r3 0.17 0.57 1.14 1.70 2.27 4.50 4.20 3.18 2.16 1.70 1.51 1.31 1.12 0.92 0.72 0.53 0.33 0.13r4 0.22 0.74 1.47 2.21 2.94 5.83 5.43 4.12 2.80 2.21 1.95 1.70 1.44 1.19 0.94 0.68 0.43 0.17r5 0.38 1.27 2.54 3.81 5.08 10.06 9.38 7.11 4.84 3.81 3.37 2.93 2.49 2.05 1.62 1.18 0.74 0.30r6 0.53 1.77 3.54 5.31 7.08 14.03 13.08 9.91 6.74 5.31 4.70 4.09 3.48 2.86 2.25 1.64 1.03 0.42r7 0.70 2.34 4.68 7.02 9.35 18.54 17.28 13.09 8.91 7.02 6.21 5.40 4.59 3.78 2.98 2.17 1.36 0.55r8 0.53 1.77 3.54 5.31 7.08 14.03 13.08 9.91 6.74 5.31 4.70 4.09 3.48 2.86 2.25 1.64 1.03 0.42r9 0.38 1.27 2.54 3.81 5.08 10.06 9.38 7.11 4.84 3.81 3.37 2.93 2.49 2.05 1.62 1.18 0.74 0.30r10 0.22 0.74 1.47 2.21 2.94 5.83 5.43 4.12 2.80 2.21 1.95 1.70 1.44 1.19 0.94 0.68 0.43 0.17r11 0.17 0.57 1.14 1.70 2.27 4.50 4.20 3.18 2.16 1.70 1.51 1.31 1.12 0.92 0.72 0.53 0.33 0.13r12 0.10 0.33 0.67 1.00 1.34 2.65 2.47 1.87 1.27 1.00 0.89 0.77 0.66 0.54 0.43 0.31 0.19 0.08r13 0.05 0.17 0.33 0.50 0.67 1.32 1.23 0.94 0.64 0.50 0.44 0.39 0.33 0.27 0.21 0.15 0.10 0.04r14 0.00
r15 0.00
r16 0.00
r17 0.00
r18 0.00
r19 0.00
r20 0.00
r21 0.00
r22 0.00
r23 0.00
r24 0.00
r25 0.00
r26 0.00
r27 0.00
r28 0.00
r29 0.00
0.17 0.67 1.74 3.54 7.10 12.67 20.53 29.37 39.36 49.08 57.43 59.63 56.46 49.89 43.21 36.89 30.91 25.09 20.04 15.73 11.94 8.55 5.65 3.43 1.95 1.02 0.48 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.00
3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87
4.04 4.54 5.61 7.42 10.98 16.54 24.41 33.24 43.23 52.96 61.31 63.51 60.34 53.76 47.09 40.76 34.78 28.97 23.92 19.60 15.82 12.42 9.52 7.30 5.82 4.90 4.36 4.05 3.91 3.87 3.87
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00 30.00
Total
(cumecs)
Time
(hours)
Unit Hydrograph ordinates (cumecs)Net Rain
(cm)
Sub-total
(cumecs)
Baseflow
(cumecs)
CONVOLUTION OF RAINFALL AND UNIT HYDROGRAPH ORDINATES
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D41
Figure D35 Uplee1 subcatchment 100 year design hydrograph
Storm Runoff Hydrograph
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00
t (hours)
Q (
cu
mecs)
D3.4 Design flows
Critical duration design flows are provided in Table D18. All design flows, including design flows for the full range of feasible durations are provided in digital format in study handover DVDs.
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
D41
Table D18 Critical duration design flows
Duration (hr)
2 5 10 25 50 100 200 1000Duration
(hr)2 5 10 25 50 100 200 1000
Duration (hr)
10 100 1000
upper lee uplee1 13 30.88 41.29 49.87 55.29 62.10 69.16 72.39 90.11 13 37.05 49.55 59.85 66.34 74.52 83.00 86.86 108.14 13 64.84 89.91 117.15upper lee uplee2 15 46.42 61.25 73.24 81.26 90.86 101.61 105.99 130.92 13 59.71 80.55 96.29 106.26 119.89 133.13 139.61 172.38 11 127.16 178.02 230.55upper lee uplee3 11 73.40 97.15 114.85 126.81 141.64 157.17 164.36 200.35 11 94.89 125.75 148.63 164.20 183.48 203.58 212.95 259.60 7 193.27 268.55 346.30upper lee uplee4 23 72.47 93.86 109.70 121.09 134.35 148.97 155.73 187.80 15 90.22 119.22 140.49 155.34 173.89 193.84 203.00 247.71 13 186.55 257.41 330.35upper lee uplee5 25 16.85 21.25 24.96 27.45 30.30 33.61 35.09 42.58 31 22.59 28.55 33.45 36.51 40.32 45.02 46.63 56.40 27 43.25 58.92 74.51upper lee uplee6 25 32.07 41.20 47.18 51.97 57.42 63.29 66.14 79.76 31 43.17 54.59 63.97 69.60 77.31 85.42 88.82 106.89 27 82.93 112.57 141.40upper lee uplee7 11 33.56 44.50 52.71 58.18 65.56 73.07 76.64 93.93 11 40.27 53.40 63.25 69.81 78.67 87.69 91.96 112.72 11 68.52 94.99 122.11upper lee uplee8 29 33.11 42.70 49.69 54.09 60.55 66.90 69.05 83.39 25 43.68 56.02 65.82 72.22 80.13 88.44 92.32 111.46 25 84.55 114.43 144.04tranmore tran1 7 4.16 5.63 6.88 7.64 8.58 9.71 10.21 12.82 3 6.47 8.82 10.54 11.83 13.47 15.34 16.31 20.70 5 10.84 15.34 20.34tranmore tran2 3 1.20 1.61 1.94 2.21 2.56 2.92 3.12 4.05 3 1.46 1.95 2.33 2.67 3.10 3.54 3.76 4.88 3 2.56 3.85 5.29tranmore tran3 5 1.45 1.93 2.37 2.68 3.08 3.48 3.69 4.71 7 1.91 2.53 3.13 3.54 3.99 4.48 4.71 6.03 3 4.40 6.56 9.03tranmore tran4 3 2.02 2.70 3.22 3.66 4.24 4.83 5.17 6.65 3 2.38 3.22 3.87 4.38 5.11 5.83 6.20 8.01 5 4.22 6.09 8.22tranmore tran5 5 2.60 3.41 4.23 4.78 5.45 6.12 6.49 8.27 3 3.53 4.76 5.73 6.46 7.44 8.52 9.01 11.59 3 6.29 9.26 12.48
owennacurra owen1 25 22.48 28.98 33.68 37.25 41.54 46.13 48.24 58.33 25 26.97 34.78 40.42 44.70 49.85 55.36 57.89 70.00 25 43.79 59.97 75.83owennacurra owen2 23 9.07 11.85 13.91 15.32 17.04 18.92 19.75 24.25 23 11.01 14.39 16.90 18.63 20.71 23.04 24.02 29.49 23 18.67 25.60 32.61owennacurra owen3 23 10.40 13.57 16.01 17.52 19.55 21.84 22.71 27.82 23 12.47 16.29 19.21 21.02 23.46 26.21 27.25 33.38 23 20.81 28.40 36.16owennacurra owen4 23 1.47 1.92 2.26 2.47 2.76 3.07 3.20 3.91 23 1.85 2.46 2.87 3.13 3.51 3.89 4.07 4.97 15 3.43 4.73 6.09owennacurra owen5 21 2.85 3.73 4.43 4.89 5.44 6.07 6.34 7.82 19 3.54 4.68 5.51 6.14 6.82 7.65 7.99 9.82 13 6.48 8.99 11.71owennacurra owen6 21 2.03 2.61 3.04 3.32 3.70 4.12 4.26 5.19 21 2.43 3.13 3.65 3.98 4.45 4.94 5.12 6.23 21 3.95 5.35 6.75
owenboy boy1 11 1.95 2.71 3.36 3.74 4.33 4.92 5.20 6.64 11 2.35 3.30 4.07 4.61 5.23 5.99 6.28 8.09 9 4.49 6.60 8.95owenboy boy2 5 1.01 1.33 1.67 1.92 2.19 2.53 2.66 3.47 5 1.19 1.58 1.95 2.26 2.59 2.94 3.11 4.04 3 3.37 5.14 7.15owenboy boy3 3 0.83 1.08 1.30 1.51 1.75 1.99 2.13 2.77 3 1.44 1.93 2.30 2.64 3.09 3.55 3.76 4.93 3 3.91 5.91 8.14owenboy boy4 13 3.12 4.33 5.17 5.80 6.61 7.45 7.90 9.95 13 3.74 5.20 6.21 6.96 7.93 8.94 9.48 11.94 13 6.72 9.68 12.94owenboy boy5 5 0.73 0.94 1.22 1.38 1.63 1.88 1.99 2.61 5 0.88 1.13 1.46 1.66 1.96 2.26 2.39 3.14 5 1.59 2.44 3.40owenboy boy6 5 1.89 2.51 3.25 3.76 4.33 4.95 5.29 7.04 5 2.27 3.01 3.90 4.52 5.20 5.93 6.35 8.45 5 4.23 6.43 9.15owenboy boy7 11 7.97 11.27 13.85 15.71 17.88 20.40 21.53 27.87 11 9.56 13.52 16.62 18.85 21.45 24.48 25.84 33.45 11 18.01 26.52 36.23owenboy boy8 13 4.15 5.76 6.87 7.59 8.78 9.89 10.29 13.21 13 4.98 6.91 8.24 9.11 10.54 11.87 12.35 15.86 13 8.93 12.86 17.18owenboy boy9 11 5.52 7.51 9.05 10.13 11.65 13.31 14.05 17.68 11 6.81 9.43 11.44 12.66 14.56 16.50 17.19 22.05 11 13.56 19.67 26.17owenboy boy10 13 0.86 1.21 1.49 1.67 1.91 2.18 2.27 2.92 13 1.03 1.45 1.79 2.00 2.29 2.62 2.72 3.51 13 1.94 2.84 3.80lower lee lowlee1 13 18.63 25.30 30.11 33.49 37.59 42.01 44.20 55.33 11 22.21 29.88 35.79 40.13 45.08 50.64 53.11 66.58 11 38.77 54.86 72.13lower lee lowlee2 13 23.79 32.44 38.58 42.63 48.02 53.84 56.73 70.40 13 28.54 38.93 46.29 51.15 57.62 64.61 68.08 84.48 13 50.15 70.00 91.52lower lee lowlee3 11 8.00 10.92 13.12 14.49 16.48 18.54 19.48 24.41 11 9.61 13.10 15.75 17.39 19.78 22.24 23.37 29.29 11 17.06 24.10 31.73lower lee lowlee4 13 13.10 18.13 21.54 24.16 26.98 30.58 31.96 39.80 13 15.72 21.75 25.85 28.99 32.37 36.69 38.35 47.76 13 28.00 39.75 51.74lower lee lowlee5 11 2.58 3.48 4.18 4.59 5.16 5.86 6.15 7.63 13 3.36 4.54 5.42 6.04 6.76 7.54 7.91 9.84 13 6.49 9.21 11.95lower lee lowlee6 5 4.96 6.60 8.03 9.04 10.29 11.55 12.23 15.51 3 6.83 9.28 11.17 12.40 14.28 16.16 17.14 21.88 5 11.45 16.20 21.40lower lee lowlee7 11 3.34 4.54 5.46 6.12 6.88 7.76 8.14 10.20 11 4.05 5.51 6.66 7.42 8.42 9.42 9.92 12.42 11 7.86 11.13 14.56lower lee lowlee8 7 2.82 3.78 4.62 5.21 5.90 6.66 7.03 8.94 7 3.38 4.53 5.54 6.25 7.08 7.99 8.44 10.72 7 6.00 8.66 11.62lower lee lowlee9 5 4.91 6.47 7.97 9.07 10.36 11.73 12.37 15.82 5 5.86 7.72 9.59 10.89 12.36 13.98 14.75 18.86 5 10.36 14.94 20.16lower lee lowlee10 7 4.55 6.14 7.50 8.35 9.44 10.70 11.30 14.32 7 5.45 7.37 8.99 10.02 11.33 12.84 13.56 17.18 7 9.74 13.91 18.61lower lee lowlee11 23 13.40 17.85 21.06 23.17 25.72 28.98 30.33 36.96 23 16.08 21.42 25.28 27.80 30.86 34.77 36.39 44.35 23 27.38 37.67 48.05lower lee lowlee12 15 17.11 23.15 27.45 30.48 34.14 38.40 40.30 49.72 15 20.54 27.78 32.94 36.58 40.97 46.08 48.36 59.67 15 35.68 49.92 64.64lower lee lowlee13 13 6.08 8.12 9.57 10.59 11.89 13.30 13.95 17.21 11 8.47 11.28 13.53 14.99 16.74 18.68 19.57 24.25 7 19.47 26.92 35.25lower lee lowlee14 13 5.56 7.60 9.03 9.97 11.25 12.66 13.26 16.48 13 7.06 9.50 11.30 12.63 14.21 15.86 16.75 20.84 11 13.16 18.43 24.22lower lee lowlee15 13 5.20 7.03 8.43 9.35 10.58 11.82 12.46 15.46 11 6.47 8.72 10.56 11.74 13.15 14.83 15.45 19.26 11 12.24 17.13 22.50glashaboy glash1 23 11.60 15.11 17.90 19.70 21.80 24.40 25.44 31.03 23 13.92 18.13 21.48 23.64 26.16 29.27 30.53 37.24 23 23.27 31.71 40.35glashaboy glash2 21 11.04 14.34 16.93 18.51 20.86 23.18 24.21 29.63 23 13.64 17.76 21.04 23.10 25.83 28.66 29.90 36.66 23 23.06 31.54 40.27glashaboy glash3 23 12.39 16.18 19.25 21.02 23.32 26.05 27.29 33.30 23 14.86 19.42 23.10 25.22 27.98 31.26 32.75 39.96 25 25.12 34.29 43.57glashaboy glash4 13 5.98 8.01 9.50 10.59 11.91 13.35 14.01 17.32 13 7.22 9.67 11.47 12.80 14.39 16.14 16.93 20.93 13 12.90 18.17 23.51glashaboy glash5 25 1.42 1.83 2.15 2.35 2.61 2.89 3.03 3.68 25 1.89 2.38 2.79 3.07 3.42 3.79 3.98 4.81 21 3.42 4.73 5.99carrigothill carig1 17 2.51 3.31 3.89 4.32 4.83 5.40 5.63 6.97 13 2.97 3.97 4.72 5.23 5.87 6.54 6.87 8.51 13 5.32 7.43 9.64carrigothill carig2 29 1.58 2.02 2.34 2.56 2.83 3.15 3.29 3.99 29 1.94 2.47 2.88 3.14 3.46 3.87 4.02 4.88 29 3.23 4.35 5.50carrigothill carig3 17 0.88 1.12 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.74 1.80 2.20 19 1.11 1.41 1.63 1.80 1.98 2.21 2.29 2.78 19 1.84 2.49 3.15carrigothill carig4 13 0.43 0.57 0.68 0.75 0.84 0.95 0.99 1.23 13 0.55 0.73 0.87 0.96 1.09 1.22 1.27 1.57 11 1.00 1.40 1.82
bride bride1 9 9.05 12.23 14.90 16.67 18.88 21.32 22.33 28.21 9 10.86 14.67 17.88 20.01 22.66 25.58 26.80 33.86 7 19.34 27.76 37.05bride bride2 13 3.96 5.31 6.27 6.97 7.83 8.81 9.18 11.35 13 5.16 6.95 8.25 9.22 10.28 11.51 12.10 14.87 11 10.35 14.53 18.92bride bride3 5 5.85 7.82 9.56 10.74 12.20 13.82 14.55 18.51 3 7.93 10.63 12.84 14.47 16.58 18.90 20.05 25.54 5 13.46 19.34 25.78
Sub CatchmentHydraulic
Model
High End Scenario
Return Period Design Flow Rate (m3/s)
Existing Conditions Mid Range Scenario
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E1
Appendix E. Integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E2
E1 Sub catchment locations
Su
b-c
atc
hm
en
t N
o.
Po
sit
ion
ing
of
Su
b-c
atc
hm
en
t C
atc
hm
en
t
3 S
ub-c
atch
men
t to
be e
xten
ded
dow
nstr
eam
to d
owns
trea
m e
xten
t of B
ally
mak
eery
. U
pper
Lee
4
Rel
ocat
e ca
tchm
ent s
light
ly d
owns
trea
m o
f Mac
room
– a
t new
rev
ised
gau
ge lo
catio
n of
190
31 (
Was
te W
ater
T
reat
men
t Wor
ks).
U
pper
lee
7
Rel
ocat
e ca
tchm
ent s
light
ly u
pstr
eam
to d
owns
trea
m e
xten
t of t
he u
rban
wat
erco
urse
for
Bal
linge
ary.
U
pper
Lee
8
Leav
e do
wns
trea
m s
ub c
atch
men
t ext
ent a
t loc
atio
n sh
own
as c
oinc
ides
with
Gau
ge 1
9014
. S
hort
sec
tion
of u
rban
ch
anne
l mid
way
dow
n su
b-ca
tchm
ent i
s be
low
a c
ontr
ol (
loug
h).
Upp
er L
ee
6 D
owns
trea
m e
xten
t sui
tabl
e at
mou
th o
f res
ervo
ir at
Car
rigad
rohi
d.
Upp
er L
ee
5 Le
ave
exte
nt d
owns
trea
m a
t 190
13 -
Urb
an c
hann
el ju
st b
elow
her
e.
Upp
er L
ee
44
Ups
trea
m e
xten
t at g
auge
190
16 a
nd d
owns
trea
m a
t lee
mou
nt b
ridge
(2
gaug
es).
Lo
wer
Lee
41
U
pstr
eam
ext
ent s
ituat
ed d
owns
trea
m o
f Cro
okst
own.
Dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent a
t gau
ge 1
9016
. Lo
wer
Lee
42
M
ove
dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent d
owns
trea
m o
f Cro
okst
own.
Lo
wer
Lee
2
Dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent l
ocat
ed a
t top
of r
ural
cha
nnel
at g
auge
190
27.
Upp
er L
ee
1 D
owns
trea
m e
xten
t of c
atch
men
t at g
auge
190
28 a
nd a
djac
ent/d
owns
trea
m o
f Dee
shar
t vill
age.
U
pper
Lee
34
M
ove
catc
hmen
t dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent f
urth
er d
owns
trea
m b
elow
urb
an c
hann
el d
esig
natio
n at
Dro
min
. Lo
wer
Lee
32
C
atch
men
t def
ined
for
all t
ribut
ary
and
dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent c
oinc
ides
with
urb
an a
rea
so o
k.
Low
er L
ee
33
Ret
ain
catc
hmen
t ext
ent a
s it
is.
Fur
ther
dow
nstr
eam
whe
re d
efin
ed a
s ur
ban
chan
nel i
s m
ainl
y ru
ral t
hrou
gh fi
elds
an
d flo
od e
mba
nkm
ents
are
in p
lace
ups
trea
m o
f tow
er b
ridge
on
true
rig
ht b
ank.
Lo
wer
Lee
45
Ret
ain
catc
hmen
t ext
ent a
s do
wns
trea
m e
xten
t is
defin
ed a
s ou
tlet i
nto
Riv
er L
ee a
t Lee
mou
nt b
ridge
. Lo
wer
Lee
31
R
etai
n do
wns
trea
m c
atch
men
t ext
ent a
s si
tuat
ed b
elow
Bla
rne
y vi
llage
urb
an a
rea.
Lo
wer
Lee
56
C
atch
men
t def
ined
dow
nstr
eam
to in
flow
to R
iver
Lee
. B
ride
57
Dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent c
oinc
ides
whe
re tr
ibut
ary
join
s w
ith R
iver
Brid
e at
dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent o
f urb
an c
hann
el
desi
gnat
ion.
B
ride
55
Cat
chm
ent d
efin
ed to
dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent o
f Brid
e tr
ibut
ary.
B
ride
46
Def
ined
dow
nstr
eam
to D
unbu
lloge
Brid
e –
all r
ural
cat
chm
ent.
Gla
shab
oy
47
Cur
rent
ly d
efin
ed to
ups
trea
m e
xten
t of t
he u
rban
cha
nnel
sec
tion,
but
brin
g do
wns
trea
m e
xten
t dow
n to
con
fluen
ce
at G
lynt
own
near
gau
ge 1
9007
. G
lash
aboy
50
All
urba
n ca
tchm
ent.
Gla
shab
oy
48
Sub
-cat
chm
ent d
owns
trea
m e
xten
t cur
rent
ly d
efin
ed a
t Cop
pera
lley
brid
ge d
owns
trea
m w
hich
is ju
st u
pstr
eam
of
conf
luen
ce.
Gla
shab
oy
49
Dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent s
et a
t Gle
nmor
e R
iver
cat
chm
ent.
Gla
shab
oy
14
Ups
trea
m s
ub-c
atch
men
t def
ined
to w
here
Lea
mla
ra R
iver
mee
ts O
wen
nacu
rra
Riv
er –
rur
al c
atch
men
t. O
wen
nacu
rra
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E3
15
Join
cat
chm
ent 1
5 to
17
so th
e do
wns
trea
m e
xten
t of s
ubca
tchm
ent i
s do
wns
trea
m o
f Mid
leto
n to
wn
cent
re.
Ow
enna
curr
a 17
Jo
in w
ith c
atch
men
t 15.
O
wen
nacu
rra
16
Cov
ers
upst
ream
cat
chm
ent o
f Dun
gour
ney
Riv
er –
rur
al.
Ow
enna
curr
a 18
S
ubca
tchm
ent d
efin
es r
iver
cha
nnel
thro
ugh
Mid
leto
n.
Ow
enna
curr
a 19
T
ribut
ary
catc
hmen
t to
Dun
gour
ney
Riv
er, d
efin
ed to
the
conf
luen
ce.
Ow
enna
curr
a 20
D
owns
trea
m u
rban
ext
ent o
f Ow
enna
curr
a C
atch
men
t to
estu
ary.
O
wen
nacu
rra
30
Rur
al s
ub-c
atch
men
t enc
ompa
ssin
g a
trib
utar
y to
Ow
enbo
y.
Ow
enbo
y 27
R
ural
sub
-cat
chm
ent a
t top
of O
wen
boy
catc
hmen
t. O
wen
boy
28
Mov
e ca
tchm
ent d
owns
trea
m b
elow
urb
an c
hann
el e
xten
t. O
wen
boy
26
Leav
e su
b-ca
tchm
ent a
s is
. U
rban
ext
ent l
ocat
ed a
t bot
tom
of s
ub-c
atch
men
t. O
wen
boy
25
Sm
all c
atch
men
t with
som
e ur
ban
chan
nel a
t dow
nstr
eam
end
whe
re jo
ins
mai
n ch
anne
l.
Ow
enbo
y 24
M
ove
sub-
catc
hmen
t dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent b
elow
urb
an c
hann
el d
/s o
f Bal
lyga
rvan
. O
wen
boy
23
Sm
all c
atch
men
t with
som
e ur
ban
chan
nel a
t dow
nstr
eam
end
whe
re jo
ins
mai
n ch
anne
l.
Ow
enbo
y 22
S
mal
l cat
chm
ent w
ith s
ome
urba
n ch
anne
l at d
owns
trea
m e
nd w
here
join
s m
ain
chan
nel.
O
wen
boy
29
Fur
ther
mos
t dow
nstr
eam
sec
tion
of c
atch
men
t bel
ow g
auge
. O
wen
boy
21
Rur
al s
ub-c
atch
men
t bet
wee
n up
stre
am u
rban
cha
nnel
and
gau
ge s
ite.
Ow
enbo
y 10
S
mal
l rur
al u
pstr
eam
of u
rban
. T
ranm
ire
13
Urb
an c
hann
el.
Tra
nmire
9
Dow
nstr
eam
ext
ent o
f Urb
an c
atch
men
t. T
ranm
ire
12
Ups
trea
m s
mal
l rur
al c
atch
men
t with
dow
nstr
eam
urb
an.
Tra
nmire
11
U
pstr
eam
sm
all r
ural
cat
chm
ent w
ith d
owns
trea
m u
rban
cha
nnel
with
in D
onny
broo
k.
Tra
nmire
43
U
rban
cha
nnel
thro
ugh
Cor
k C
ity.
Low
er L
ee
36
Urb
an c
hann
el o
f Gla
shee
n R
iver
. Lo
wer
Lee
39
C
atch
men
t of T
wop
ot R
iver
, ext
ends
dow
nstr
eam
to c
onflu
ence
with
Cur
ragh
een.
Lo
wer
Lee
35
D
owns
trea
m e
xten
t of s
ub-c
atch
men
t is
urba
n ar
ea o
f Cor
k, a
nd w
here
Cur
ragh
een
join
s th
e R
iver
Lee
. Lo
wer
Lee
37
U
pstr
eam
sub
-cat
chm
ent w
ith lo
wer
sec
tion
urba
n ch
anne
l. Lo
wer
Lee
38
R
ural
sub
-cat
chm
ent o
f trib
utar
y.
Low
er L
ee
40
Rur
al tr
ibut
ary
catc
hmen
t of C
urra
ghee
n.
Low
er L
ee
52
Sm
all c
atch
men
t with
urb
an e
xten
t at d
owns
trea
m e
nd p
rior
to e
stua
ry.
Car
rigot
hill
51
Sm
all c
atch
men
t with
urb
an e
xten
t at d
owns
trea
m e
nd.
Car
rigot
hill
53
Sm
all r
ural
cat
chm
ent.
Car
rigot
hill
54
Dow
nstr
eam
urb
an c
atch
men
t. C
arrig
othi
ll
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E4
E2 Integration of hydrology and hydraulic modelling
E2.1 Upper Lee catchment
Figure E1 Catchment map
Table E1 Subcatchment areas
Model Subname Catchment area (km2)
upperlee upperlee1 80.30upperlee upperlee2 96.10upperlee upperlee3 74.33upperlee upperlee4 143.99upperlee upperlee5 88.43upperlee upperlee6 138.08upperlee upperlee7 54.54upperlee upperlee8 116.23
792.00
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E5
Table E2 1986 and 2006 event data
Fo
r 1
98
6 &
20
06 E
VE
NT
19
03
1 G
au
ge
(T
ota
l c
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
at
ga
ug
e =
up
per
lee
3+
up
pe
r le
e4
= 7
4.3
3+
14
3.9
9 =
21
8.3
2km
2
Are
aF
racti
on
of
1903
1 g
au
ge
Po
int
or
La
tera
l In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
uppe
rlee3
urba
n9.
020.
04la
tera
l5S
UL_
2392
3 to
5S
UL_
2176
9re
mai
ning
rur
al65
.31
0.30
poin
tat
ups
trea
m e
nd w
hich
is 5
SU
L_24
509
uppe
rlee4
urba
n9.
020.
04la
tera
l5S
UL_
6389
to 5
SU
L_33
26F
oher
ish
river
72.7
80.
33po
int
5SU
L_10
247
Riv
er D
ougl
as17
.19
0.08
poin
tat
5S
UL_
2050
1re
mai
ning
rur
al45
.01
0.21
poin
tat
ups
trea
m e
nd w
hich
is 5
SU
L_21
769
1.00
19
02
7 G
au
ge
(T
ota
l c
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
at
ga
ug
e =
up
per
lee
2 =
96.1
0km
2 (
ap
pro
x)
Are
aF
racti
on
of
1902
7 g
au
ge
Po
int
or
La
tera
l In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
uppe
r le
e2al
l rur
al96
1.00
poin
t5S
U1_
1860
1.00
Ca
rrig
ad
roh
id R
es
erv
oir
In
flo
w (
Up
str
ea
m o
ne
of
two
) (T
ota
l c
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
at
dam
=
up
perl
ee
2+
up
perl
ee3+
up
perl
ee4
+u
pp
erl
ee6+
up
perl
ee7+
up
perl
ee
8=
96.1
0+
74
.33+
143.9
9+
138.0
8+
54.5
4+
116.2
3 =
623.2
7km
2 )
Sin
ce u
pper
lee2
, upp
erle
e 3
and
uppe
rlee
4 ar
e gu
aged
, the
se fl
ows
need
to b
e su
btra
cted
from
Tot
al U
pstr
eam
Res
ervo
ir In
flow
to g
et fl
om fr
om 6
, 7 ,8
.N
et U
pstr
eam
Res
ervo
ir In
flow
= T
otal
Ups
trea
m R
eser
voir
Inflo
w -
Flo
w a
t Gau
ge 1
9027
- G
auge
Flo
w a
t 190
31
(Rem
aini
ng C
atch
men
t Are
a =
upp
erle
e6+u
pper
lee7
+up
perle
e8=
138.
08+
54.5
4+11
6.23
=30
8.85
km2 )
Are
aF
racti
on
of
Net U
ps
trea
m R
ese
rvo
ir I
nfl
ow
Po
int
or
La
tera
l In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
uppe
r le
e 7
rem
aini
ng r
ural
31.3
00.
10po
int
at 5
ULE
_532
84ur
ban
3.91
0.01
late
ral
betw
een
5ULE
_532
84 a
nd 5
ULE
_514
83B
unns
heel
in r
iver
19.3
40.
06po
int
at 5
UL1
_924
uppe
r le
e 8
urba
n5.
110.
02la
tera
lbe
twee
n 5U
LE_4
3617
and
5U
LE_4
2311
Bea
laph
adee
n st
ream
19.5
50.
06po
int
5ULE
_493
04A
ghna
kinn
eirt
h st
ream
12.1
70.
04po
int
5ULE
_465
87Lo
ugh
allu
a24
.54
0.08
poin
t5U
LE_5
1483
Rem
aini
ng R
ural
54.8
70.
18po
int
5ULE
_423
11
uppe
r le
e 6
toon
riv
er49
.35
0.16
poin
t5U
LE_2
8238
Bui
ngea
riv
er35
.81
0.12
poin
t5U
LE_2
1690
rem
aini
ng r
ural
52.9
20.
17po
int
5ULE
_335
921.
00
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E6
Inis
hc
arr
a R
es
erv
oir
(D
ow
ns
tre
am
on
e o
f tw
o)
(To
tal
ca
tch
men
t are
a a
t d
am
= u
pp
erl
ee1
+u
pp
erl
ee2
+u
pp
erl
ee3
+u
pp
erl
ee
4+
up
pe
rlee
5+
up
pe
rlee
6
.+u
pp
erl
ee7
+u
pp
erl
ee8
= 8
0.3
0+
96.1
0+
74
.33+
143
.99+
88.4
3+
13
8.0
8+
54
.54+
116
.23 =
792
.00
km
2 )
Tot
al r
eser
voir
inflo
w n
eeds
to b
e sp
lit b
etw
een
upst
ream
end
and
upp
er le
e 1
catc
hmen
t
Fra
cti
on
of
Do
wn
str
ea
m r
es
erv
oir
In
flo
wP
oin
t o
r L
ate
ral
Infl
ow
Ap
pli
es
at
se
cti
on
(s)
upst
ream
end
0.90
poin
t5U
LE_1
6029
uppe
r le
e 1
0.10
poin
t5U
LE1_
2973
1.00
Ch
ec
k P
ea
k f
low
fo
r 19
86
even
t, f
or
Carr
igad
roh
id R
ese
rvo
ir:
Pea
k F
low
(m
3s
-1)
1903
1 (M
acro
on)
Gau
ge17
4.85
Not
e: E
stim
ated
1902
7 (S
hana
kill)
Gau
ge95
.50
Car
rigad
rohi
d R
eser
voir
Inflo
w57
2.40
Inni
scar
ra R
eser
voir
Inflo
w50
0.64
Bas
ed o
n C
atch
men
t are
a, w
e w
ould
exp
ect:
1903
1 =
218.
32/6
23.2
7 =
35%
of C
arrig
adro
hid
Res
ervo
ir In
flow
35%
of 5
72.4
0 =
200
m3 s-1
Com
pare
d to
an
obse
rved
of 1
74.8
5 m
3 s-1 T
here
fore
pea
ks a
re in
a r
easo
nabl
e pr
opor
tion
1902
7 =
96.1
0/62
3.27
= 1
5% o
f Car
rigad
rohi
d R
eser
voir
Inflo
w15
% o
f 527
.40
= 88
m3 s-1
Com
pare
d to
an
obse
rved
of 9
5.50
m3 s-1
The
refo
re p
eaks
are
in a
rea
sona
ble
prop
ortio
n
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E7
Table E3 Design event
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 3
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
rlee3
-ur
ban
9.02
0.12
late
ral
5SU
L_23
923
to 5
SU
L_21
769
G1
90
31
_a
G1
90
31
_a
rem
aini
ng r
ural
65.3
10.
88po
int
at u
pstr
eam
end
whi
ch is
5S
UL_
2450
9G
19
03
1_
b5S
UL
_2
45
09
74.3
31.
00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 4
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
rlee4
urba
n9.
020.
06la
tera
l5S
UL_
6389
to 5
SU
L_33
26G
19
031
_c
G1
90
31
_c
Foh
eris
h riv
er72
.78
0.51
poin
t5S
UL_
1024
7G
19
03
1_
dG
19
03
1_
d
Riv
er D
ougl
as17
.19
0.12
poin
tat
5S
UL_
2050
1G
19
031
_e
G1
90
31
_e
rem
aini
ng r
ural
45.0
10.
31po
int
at u
pstr
eam
end
whi
ch is
5S
UL_
2176
9G
19
031
_f
G1
90
31
_f
144
1.00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 2
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
r le
e2al
l rur
al96
1.00
poin
t5S
U1_
1860
G1
90
27
_a
5S
U1_
18
60
96.1
01.
00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 7
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
r le
e 7
rem
aini
ng r
ural
31.3
00.
57po
int
at 5
ULE
_532
84C
RI_
a5U
LE
_5
32
84
urba
n3.
910.
07la
tera
lbe
twee
n 5U
LE_5
3284
and
5U
LE_5
1483
CR
I_b
CR
I_b
Bun
nshe
elin
riv
er19
.34
0.35
poin
tat
5U
L1_9
24C
RI_
c5
UL
1_
924
551.
00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 8
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
r le
e 8
urba
n5.
110.
04la
tera
lbe
twee
n 5U
LE_4
3617
and
5U
LE_4
2311
CR
I_d
CR
I_d
Bea
laph
adee
n st
ream
19.5
50.
17po
int
5ULE
_493
04C
RI_
eC
RI_
e
Agh
naki
nnei
rth
stre
am12
.17
0.10
poin
t5U
LE_4
6587
CR
I_f
CR
I_f
Loug
h al
lua
24.5
40.
21po
int
5ULE
_514
83C
RI_
gC
RI_
g
Rem
aini
ng R
ural
54.8
70.
47po
int
5ULE
_423
11C
RI_
hC
RI_
h
116
1.00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 9
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
r le
e 6
Too
n riv
er49
.35
0.36
poin
t5U
LE_2
8238
CR
I_i
CR
I_i
Bui
ngea
riv
er35
.81
0.26
poin
t5U
LE_2
1690
CR
I_j
CR
I_j
rem
aini
ng r
ural
52.9
20.
38po
int
5ULE
_335
92C
RI_
kC
RI_
k
138
1.00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 5
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
r le
e 5
rura
l88
.43
1.00
poin
t5U
LE_1
6029
IRI_
aIR
I_a
88.4
31.
00
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f U
pp
er
Le
e 1
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
uppe
r le
e 1
rura
l80
.30
1.00
poin
t5U
LE1_
2973
IRI_
b5U
LE
1_
29
73
80.3
01.
00
Tra
nsfe
r fr
om C
arrig
adro
hid
Res
ervo
ir to
Inni
scar
ra R
eser
voir
Are
aF
rac
tio
n o
f C
arr
iga
dro
hid
Re
se
rvo
ir O
utf
low
Po
int
or
Late
ral In
flo
wA
pp
lies
at
se
cti
on
(s)
Na
me
N
am
e u
sed
in
IS
IS M
od
el
1.00
5ULE
_160
29U
IRI_
cIR
I_c
-1.
00T
his
boun
dary
doe
sn't
need
to b
e in
clud
ed in
the
IED
file
s. IR
I_c
will
sim
ply
be a
n A
bstr
actio
n U
nit,
whi
ch w
ill u
se L
ogic
al R
ules
, w
here
Log
ical
Rul
es s
tate
, Flo
w(I
RI_
c) =
Flo
w(C
arD
amU
S)
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E8
E2.2 Owennacurra catchment
Figure E2 Catchment map
FigureE3 October 2004 rainfall contours
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E9
Figure E4 November 2000 rainfall contours
Table E4 Average rainfall for 2000 and 2004 events
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-) Average rainfall Oct 2004 (mm) Average rainfall Nov 2000 (mm)
owennacurra Owen1 73.92 43.53 75.00 48.00owennacurra Owen2 32.26 19.00 80.00 44.00owennacurra Owen3 36.94 21.75 73.00 48.00owennacurra Owen4 5.56 3.27 69.00 42.00owennacurra Owen5 9.88 5.82 70.00 43.00owennacurra Owen6 11.27 6.64 67.00 41.00
169.83
Table E5 Owennacurra model inflow details
Model Subname
Subcatcment
area (km2)
Percentage of total sub-
catchment Cross section connection Type of inflow
owennacurra Owen1 73.92 100 3OWE_8132 Point
owennacurra Owen2 5.21 16 3OWE_7453 Point
owennacurra 21.90 68 3OWE_5001 Point
owennacurra 5.15 16 3OWE_4966 to 3OWE_2088 Lateral
owennacurra Owen3 36.94 100 3DU1_3244 Point
owennacurra Owen4 4.01 72 3DUN_2235 Point
owennacurra 1.55 28 3DUN_1331 to 3DUN_0 Lateral
owennacurra Owen5 9.88 100 3DU2_1520 Point
owennacurra Owen6 11.27 100 3OWE_2088 to 3OWE_0 Lateral
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E10
Table E6 Scaling factors for the catchment for calibration, verification and design events.
Main calibration event Verification event Design eventsOct-04 Nov-00 Oct-04 Nov-00 Design flows
Model Subname
Scaling of flow (based on
rainfall)
Scaling of flow
(based on rainfall) Scaling of flow for model input Scaling of flow for model input Scaling of flow for model input
owennacurra Owen1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
owennacurra Owen2 1.07 0.92 0.08 0.07 0.16
owennacurra 1.07 0.92 0.32 0.30 0.68
owennacurra 1.07 0.92 0.07 0.07 0.16
owennacurra Owen3 0.97 1.00 0.49 0.50 1.00
owennacurra Owen4 0.92 0.88 0.05 0.05 0.72
owennacurra 0.92 0.88 0.02 0.02 0.28
owennacurra Owen5 0.93 0.90 0.12 0.13 1.00
owennacurra Owen6 0.89 0.85 0.14 0.15 1.00
E2.3 Owenboy catchment
Table E7 Owenboy subcatchment areas and fractions
For 2002 & 2004 EVENT
19001 gaugeName Cross_sect Area (km²) Fraction of gauged flow (-)
1BO2_F 1BO2_3257 4.2 0.04 1BOY=main river inflows1BO3_F 1BO3_480 6.4 0.06 1BO2, 3, .., 7 = tributary inflows1BO4_F 1BO4_413 2.3 0.021BO5_F 1BO5_649 2.1 0.021BO7_F 1BO7_1245 3.0 0.031BOY_F01 1BOY_23267 35.0 0.341BOY_F02 1BOY_19051 20.6 0.201BOY_F03 1BOY_11066 18.5 0.181BOY_F04 1BOY_5454 11.1 0.111BOY_F05 25.7Total 103.2 1.00
Total from area upstream of gauge 103.3
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E11
E2.4 Glashaboy catchment
Figure E5 Glashaboy catchment
Table E8 Glashaboy subcatchment areas and fractions
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-)
glashaboy glash1 38.19 0.26glashaboy glash2 37.93 0.26glashaboy glash3 43.68 0.30glashaboy glash4 19.44 0.13glashaboy glash5 5.88 0.04
145.12
Table E9 Glashaboy model inflow details
Model Subname
Fraction of total
catchment (-)
Percentage of total sub-
catchment flow Cross section connection Type of inflow
glashaboy glash1 0.26 100 4GLA_15642 Pointglashaboy glash2 0.03 12 4GLA_12960 Pointglashaboy glash2 0.14 53 4GLA_9707 Pointglashaboy glash2 0.02 6 4GLA_8994 Pointglashaboy glash2 0.02 9 4GLA_7912 Pointglashaboy glash2 0.02 9 4GLA_6882 Pointglashaboy glash2 0.03 11 4GLA_5405 to 4GLA_3138 Lateralglashaboy glash3 0.30 100 4BUT_1284 Pointglashaboy glash4 0.13 100 4BUT_416 Pointglashaboy glash5 0.04 100 4GLA_3138 to 4GLA_0 Lateral
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E12
E2.5 Bride catchment
Figure E6 Glashaboy catchment
Table E10 Bride subcatchment areas and fractions
Model Subname
Catchment area
(km2)Fraction of total
catchment (-)
Bride bride1 20.16 48.37Bride bride2 12.50 29.99Bride bride3 9.02 21.64
41.68
Table E11 Bride model inflow details
Design flows
Model Subname
Subcatcment area
(km2)Percentage of total
sub-catchment Cross section connection Type of inflow
Scaling of sub-catchment flow
for model input
Bride bride1 15.25 76 7BR1_3361 Point 0.76
bride1 4.91 24 7BR1_1968 Point 0.24
Bride bride2 4.13 33 7BRI_8655 Point 0.33
bride2 4.71 38 7BRI_5556 Point 0.38
bride2 3.66 29 7BRI_2306 to 7BRI_0 Lateral 0.29
Bride bride3 9.02 100 7BR2_3753 to 7BR2_0 Lateral 1.00
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E13
E2.6 Carrigtohill catchment
Figure E7 Glashaboy catchment
Table E12 Carrigtohill subcatchment areas and fractions
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-)
Carrigtohill carig1 8.36 37.85Carrigtohill carig2 6.98 31.60Carrigtohill carig3 5.44 24.63Carrigtohill carig4 1.31 5.93
22.09
Table E13 Carrigtohill model inflow details
Design flows
Model Subname
Subcatcment
area (km2)Percentage of total
sub-catchment Cross section connection Type of inflow
Scaling of sub-catchment
flow for model input
Carrigtohill carig1 8.08 97 2CA2_1395 Point 0.97
Carrigtohill carig1 0.28 3 2CA2_1395 to 2CA2_809 Lateral 0.03
Carrigtohill carig2 6.26 90 2CA1_1396 Point 0.90
Carrigtohill carig2 0.72 10 2CA1_1396 to 2CA1_186 Lateral 0.10
Carrigtohill carig3 5.44 100 2CAR_1800 Point 1.00
Carrigtohill carig4 0.88 67 2CAR_1654 to 2CAR_709 Lateral 0.67
Carrigtohill carig4 0.28 21 2CA2_769 to 2CA2_0 Lateral 0.21
Carrigtohill carig4 0.15 11 2CAR_519 Point 0.11
E2.7 Tramore catchment
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E14
Figure E8 Glashaboy catchment
Table E14 Tramore subcatchment areas and fractions
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-)
Tramore tran1 7.63 35.97Tramore tran2 2.10 9.90Tramore tran3 3.39 15.98Tramore tran4 3.51 16.55Tramore tran5 4.58 21.59
21.21
Table E15 Tramore model inflow details
Design flows
Model Subname
Subcatcment area
(km2)Percentage of total sub-
catchment Cross section connection Type of inflow
Scaling of sub-catchment flow
for model input
Tramore tran1 5.41 71 6TRA_3559 to 6TRA_0 Lateral 0.71
tran1 1.28 17 6TRA_1541 Point 0.17
tran1 0.94 12 6DOU_845 to 6DOU_0 Lateral 0.12
Tramore tran2 2.10 100 6TRA_5921 Point 1.00
Tramore tran3 1.59 47 6DOU_2737 Point 0.47
tran3 1.80 53 6DOU_1370 to 6DOU_952 Lateral 0.53
Tramore tran4 3.51 100 6DO1_1014 Point 1.00
Tramore tran5 4.58 100 6TRA_5812 to 6TRA_3623 Lateral 1.00
E2.8 Lower Lee
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E15
Figure E9 catchment map
November 2002 flood event
Table E16 Average rainfall for November 2002 flood event
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-) Average rainfall Nov 2002 (mm)
Lower Lee lowlee1 63.40 15.12 N/ALower Lee lowlee2 70.27 16.75 N/ALower Lee lowlee3 24.48 5.84 N/ALower Lee lowlee4 41.16 9.81 N/ALower Lee lowlee5 8.64 2.06 50.00Lower Lee lowlee6 7.74 1.85 50.00Lower Lee lowlee7 9.54 2.27 45.00Lower Lee lowlee8 6.60 1.57 45.00Lower Lee lowlee9 10.57 2.52 45.00Lower Lee lowlee10 11.91 2.84 45.00Lower Lee lowlee11 62.91 15.00 50.00Lower Lee lowlee12 49.15 11.72 50.00Lower Lee lowlee13 18.57 4.43 60.00Lower Lee lowlee14 19.18 4.57 50.00Lower Lee lowlee15 15.31 3.65 N/A
419.43
Table E17 Lower Lee model inflow details
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E16
Ga
ug
e 1
90
16
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bcatc
hm
en
t are
a
(km
2)
Perc
en
tag
e o
f to
tal
su
b-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l c
atc
hm
en
t
up
str
ea
m o
f 19
01
6C
ross s
ecti
on
co
nn
ecti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
alin
g o
f fl
ow
base
d o
n
ga
ug
e
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
11.
190.
020.
018R
BR
_0
70
Po
int
0.0
11
low
lee1
119
.05
0.30
0.17
8R
BR
_0
64
Po
int
0.1
70
low
lee1
12.
140.
030.
028R
BR
_0
53
Po
int
0.0
19
low
lee1
112
.12
0.19
0.11
8R
BR
_0
58
Po
int
0.1
08
low
lee1
115
.73
0.25
0.14
8R
BR
_0
48
Po
int
0.1
40
low
lee1
17.
350.
120.
078R
BR
_0
43
Po
int
0.0
66
low
lee1
15.
330.
080.
058
RB
R_03
9 t
o 8
RB
R_0
15
La
tera
l0.0
48
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
246
.77
0.95
0.42
8R
BR
_0
80
Po
int
0.4
17
low
lee1
22.
380.
050.
028
RB
R_08
0 t
o 8
RB
R_0
71
La
tera
l0.0
21
Res
erv
oir
ou
tflo
w
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bcatc
hm
en
t are
a
(km
2)
Perc
en
tag
e o
f to
tal
su
b-c
atc
hm
en
tP
erc
en
tag
e o
f to
tal
ca
tch
me
nt
up
str
ea
m o
f 1
90
13
Cro
ss s
ecti
on
co
nn
ecti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
alin
g o
f fl
ow
base
d o
n
reserv
oir
ou
tflo
w
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
4
uppe
r le
e co
min
g in
to
mod
elN
/AN
/A8L
EE
_1
874
0P
oin
t1.0
00
Ga
ug
e 1
90
15
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bcatc
hm
en
t are
a
(km
2)
Perc
en
tag
e o
f to
tal
su
b-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l c
atc
hm
en
t
up
str
ea
m o
f 19
01
5C
ross s
ecti
on
co
nn
ecti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
alin
g o
f fl
ow
base
d o
n
ga
ug
e
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e2
70.2
71.
000.
327
8S
HO
_0
57
Po
int
0.3
27
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e4
19.2
70.
470.
090
8S
T1
_00
3P
oin
t0.0
90
low
lee4
19.2
70.
470.
090
8O
WG
_3
968
Po
int
0.0
90
low
lee4
2.62
0.06
0.01
28O
WG
_168
2 t
o 8
OW
G_11
07
La
tera
l0.0
12
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
62.4
40.
980.
291
8M
AR
_03
3P
oin
t0.2
91
low
lee1
0.96
0.02
0.00
48
MA
R_02
5 t
o 8
MA
R_0
08
La
tera
l0.0
04
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e3
7.68
0.31
0.03
68B
LA
_86
25
Po
int
0.0
36
low
lee3
2.72
0.11
0.01
38B
LA
_78
70
Po
int
0.0
13
low
lee3
6.30
0.26
0.02
98B
LA
_50
55
Po
int
0.0
29
low
lee3
6.33
0.26
0.02
98B
LA
_41
28
Po
int
0.0
29
low
lee3
1.45
0.06
0.00
78B
LA
_22
73
Po
int
0.0
07
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
50.
510.
030.
002
8M
AR
_00
7 t
o 8
MA
R_0
01
La
tera
l0.0
02
low
lee1
51.
800.
120.
008
8B
LA
_189
6 t
o 8
BL
A_
0L
ate
ral
0.0
08
low
lee1
53.
970.
260.
018
8S
HO
_04
3 t
o 8
SH
O_0
26
La
tera
l0.0
18
low
lee1
50.
370.
020.
002
8S
H1
_00
4 t
o 8
SH
1_0
01
La
tera
l0.0
02
low
lee1
57.
230.
470.
034
8O
WG
_79
3P
oin
t0.0
34
low
lee1
51.
430.
09N
/A8S
HO
_0
14
Po
int
0.0
93
214.
62
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E17
Sca
led
fro
m g
au
ge 1
90
16
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bcatc
hm
en
t are
a
(km
2)
Perc
en
tag
e o
f to
tal
su
b-
ca
tch
me
nt
Cro
ss s
ecti
on
co
nn
ecti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sca
lin
g o
f fl
ow
(ba
sed
on
rain
fall)
Sca
lin
g o
f fl
ow
fo
r m
od
el
inp
ut
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e5
8.21
0.95
8C
UR
_7
769
to
8C
UR
_12
58
La
tera
l1.
000.0
73
low
lee5
0.43
0.05
8C
U1
_50
5 t
o 8
CU
1_
0L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
04
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e6
7.25
0.94
8G
LA
_356
6 t
o 8
GL
A_70
La
tera
l1.
000.0
65
low
lee6
0.49
0.06
8S
OU
_3
472
to
8S
OU
_23
05
La
tera
l1.
000.0
04
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e7
6.26
0.66
8C
UR
_9
59
9P
oin
t0.
900.0
50
low
lee7
1.79
0.19
8C
U3_
003
Po
int
0.90
0.0
14
low
lee7
1.49
0.16
8C
UR
_9
197
to
8C
UR
_77
69
La
tera
l0.
900.0
12
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e8
5.50
0.83
8C
U1
_34
08
Po
int
0.90
0.0
44
low
lee8
1.10
0.17
8C
U4_
002
Po
int
0.90
0.0
09
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e9
10.5
71.
008
TW
O_8
65
Po
int
0.90
0.0
85
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
011
.91
1.00
8C
U2_
006
Po
int
0.90
0.0
96
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
36.
140.
338L
EE
_9
725
to
8L
EE
_53
07
La
tera
l1.
200.0
66
low
lee1
35.
730.
318L
EE
_5
150
to
8L
EE
_17
82
La
tera
l1.
200.0
61
low
lee1
32.
490.
138S
OU
_3
65
9 t
o 8
SO
U_0
La
tera
l1.
200.0
27
low
lee1
34.
210.
238L
EE
_1
67
3 t
o 8
LE
E_0
La
tera
l1.
200.0
45
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
43.
4317
.88
8R
BR
_01
5P
oin
t1.
000.0
31
low
lee1
41.
839.
548L
EE
_17
024
Po
int
1.00
0.0
16
low
lee1
44.
8125
.08
8R
BR
_0
15
to
8R
BR
_00
1 a
nd
8L
EE
_15
466
to
8L
EE
_14
774
La
tera
l1.
000.0
43
low
lee1
42.
1811
.37
8B
AL
_2
825
to
8B
AL
_0
La
tera
l1.
000.0
19
low
lee1
42.
3011
.99
8L
EE
_14
715
to
8L
EE
_12
009
La
tera
l1.
000.0
21
low
lee1
41.
859.
658
LE
E_
119
28 t
o 8
LE
E_
992
1L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
17
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E18
October 2004 flood event
Table E18 Average rainfall for the October 2004 event
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-) Average rainfall Oct 2004 (mm)
Lower Lee lowlee1 63.40 15.12 80.00Lower Lee lowlee2 70.27 16.75 80.00Lower Lee lowlee3 24.48 5.84 90.00Lower Lee lowlee4 41.16 9.81 70.00Lower Lee lowlee5 8.64 2.06 60.00Lower Lee lowlee6 7.74 1.85 65.00Lower Lee lowlee7 9.54 2.27 60.00Lower Lee lowlee8 6.60 1.57 60.00Lower Lee lowlee9 10.57 2.52 50.00Lower Lee lowlee10 11.91 2.84 55.00Lower Lee lowlee11 62.91 15.00 80.00Lower Lee lowlee12 49.15 11.72 80.00Lower Lee lowlee13 18.57 4.43 95.00Lower Lee lowlee14 19.18 4.57 60.00Lower Lee lowlee15 15.31 3.65 80.00
419.43
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E19
Table E19 Lower Lee model inflow details
Ga
ug
e 1
90
16
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f to
tal s
ub
-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l ca
tch
me
nt
up
str
ea
m o
f 19
01
6C
ros
s s
ec
tio
n c
on
ne
cti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sca
lin
g o
f fl
ow
ba
sed
on
ga
ug
e
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
11.
190.
020.
018
RB
R_
07
0P
oin
t0
.01
1
low
lee
11
19.0
50.
300.
178
RB
R_
06
4P
oin
t0
.17
0
low
lee
11
2.14
0.03
0.02
8R
BR
_05
3P
oin
t0
.01
9
low
lee
11
12.1
20.
190.
118
RB
R_
05
8P
oin
t0
.10
8
low
lee
11
15.7
30.
250.
148
RB
R_
04
8P
oin
t0
.14
0
low
lee
11
7.35
0.12
0.07
8R
BR
_04
3P
oin
t0
.06
6
low
lee
11
5.33
0.08
0.05
8R
BR
_0
39
to
8R
BR
_0
15
La
tera
l0
.04
8
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
246
.77
0.95
0.42
8R
BR
_08
0P
oin
t0
.41
7lo
wle
e1
22.
380.
050.
028
RB
R_
080
to
8R
BR
_0
71
La
tera
l0
.02
1
Re
se
rvo
ir o
utf
low
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f to
tal s
ub
-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l ca
tch
me
nt
up
str
ea
m o
f 19
01
3C
ros
s s
ec
tio
n c
on
ne
cti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sca
lin
g o
f fl
ow
ba
sed
on
rese
rvo
ir o
utf
low
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
4
Rep
rese
nts
flow
from
up
per
lee
com
ing
into
m
odel
N/A
N/A
8L
EE
_18
74
0P
oin
t1
.00
0
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E20
Sc
ale
d f
rom
ga
ug
e 1
901
6
Mo
de
lS
ub
na
me
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f to
tal s
ub
-
ca
tch
me
nt
Cro
ss
se
cti
on
co
nn
ec
tio
nT
yp
e o
f in
flo
w
Sca
lin
g o
f fl
ow
(b
as
ed
on
rain
fall
)
Sc
ali
ng
of
flo
w f
or
mo
de
l
inp
ut
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e5
8.21
0.95
8C
UR
_7
76
9 t
o 8
CU
R_
12
58
La
tera
l0.
750
.05
5
low
lee
50.
430.
058
CU
1_
50
5 t
o 8
CU
1_
0L
ate
ral
0.75
0.0
03
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e6
7.25
0.94
8G
LA
_3
56
6 t
o 8
GL
A_
70
La
tera
l0.
810
.05
3
low
lee
60.
490.
068S
OU
_3
47
2 t
o 8
SO
U_
23
05
La
tera
l0.
810
.00
4
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e7
6.26
0.66
8C
UR
_95
99
Po
int
0.75
0.0
42
low
lee
71.
790.
198
CU
3_
00
3P
oin
t0.
750
.01
2
low
lee
71.
490.
168C
UR
_9
19
7 t
o 8
CU
R_
77
69
La
tera
l0.
750
.01
0
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e8
5.50
0.83
8C
U1
_34
08
Po
int
0.75
0.0
37
low
lee
81.
100.
178
CU
4_
00
2P
oin
t0.
750
.00
7
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e9
10.5
71.
008T
WO
_8
65
Po
int
0.63
0.0
59
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
011
.91
1.00
8C
U2
_0
06
Po
int
0.69
0.0
73
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
36.
140.
338
LE
E_9
72
5 t
o 8
LE
E_5
30
7L
ate
ral
1.19
0.0
65
low
lee
13
5.73
0.31
8L
EE
_5
15
0 t
o 8
LE
E_1
78
2L
ate
ral
1.19
0.0
61
low
lee
13
2.49
0.13
8S
OU
_36
59
to
8S
OU
_0
La
tera
l1.
190
.02
6
low
lee
13
4.21
0.23
8L
EE
_16
73
to
8L
EE
_0
La
tera
l1.
190
.04
5
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
43.
4317
.88
8R
BR
_0
15
Po
int
0.75
0.0
23
low
lee
14
1.83
9.54
8L
EE
_1
70
24
Po
int
0.75
0.0
12
low
lee
14
4.81
25.0
88
RB
R_
01
5 t
o 8
RB
R_
00
1 a
nd
8L
EE
_1
54
66
to
8L
EE
_14
77
4L
ate
ral
0.75
0.0
32
low
lee
14
2.18
11.3
78
BA
L_
28
25
to
8B
AL
_0
La
tera
l0.
750
.01
5
low
lee
14
2.30
11.9
98
LE
E_1
47
15
to
8L
EE
_1
20
09
La
tera
l0.
750
.01
5
low
lee
14
1.85
9.65
8L
EE
_1
192
8 t
o 8
LE
E_
99
21
La
tera
l0.
750
.01
2
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e2
70.2
71.
008
SH
O_
05
7P
oin
t1.
000
.62
7
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e4
19.2
70.
478
ST
1_0
03
Po
int
0.88
0.1
50
low
lee
419
.27
0.47
8O
WG
_3
96
8P
oin
t0.
880
.15
0
low
lee
42.
620.
068
OW
G_1
68
2 t
o 8
OW
G_1
10
7L
ate
ral
0.88
0.0
20
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
62.4
40.
988
MA
R_0
33
Po
int
1.00
0.5
57
low
lee
10.
960.
028
MA
R_
02
5 t
o 8
MA
R_
00
8L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
09
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e3
7.68
0.31
8B
LA
_8
62
5P
oin
t1.
130
.07
7
low
lee
32.
720.
118
BL
A_
78
70
Po
int
1.13
0.0
27
low
lee
36.
300.
268
BL
A_
50
55
Po
int
1.13
0.0
63
low
lee
36.
330.
268
BL
A_
41
28
Po
int
1.13
0.0
64
low
lee
31.
450.
068
BL
A_
22
73
Po
int
1.13
0.0
15
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
50.
510.
038
MA
R_
00
7 t
o 8
MA
R_
00
1L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
05
low
lee
15
1.80
0.12
8B
LA
_18
96
to
8B
LA
_0
La
tera
l1.
000
.01
6
low
lee
15
3.97
0.26
8S
HO
_0
43
to
8S
HO
_02
6L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
35
low
lee
15
0.37
0.02
8S
H1_
00
4 t
o 8
SH
1_0
01
La
tera
l1.
000
.00
3
low
lee
15
7.23
0.47
8O
WG
_7
93
Po
int
1.00
0.0
65
low
lee
15
1.43
0.09
8S
HO
_0
14
Po
int
1.00
0.0
13
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E21
December 2006
Table E20 Lower Lee model inflow details
Gau
ge
190
16
Mo
de
lS
ub
nam
e
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l s
ub
-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l c
atc
hm
en
t u
ps
tre
am
of
19
01
6C
ross s
ec
tio
n c
on
ne
cti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
ali
ng
of
flo
w b
as
ed
on
ga
ug
e
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
11.
190.
020.
018R
BR
_0
70
Po
int
0.0
11
low
lee1
119
.05
0.30
0.17
8R
BR
_0
64
Po
int
0.1
70
low
lee1
12.
140.
030.
028R
BR
_0
53
Po
int
0.0
19
low
lee1
112
.12
0.19
0.11
8R
BR
_0
58
Po
int
0.1
08
low
lee1
115
.73
0.25
0.14
8R
BR
_0
48
Po
int
0.1
40
low
lee1
17.
350.
120.
078R
BR
_0
43
Po
int
0.0
66
low
lee1
15.
330.
080.
058R
BR
_03
9 t
o 8
RB
R_0
15
La
tera
l0
.048
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
246
.77
0.95
0.42
8R
BR
_0
80
Po
int
0.4
17
low
lee1
22.
380.
050.
028R
BR
_08
0 t
o 8
RB
R_0
71
La
tera
l0
.021
Res
erv
oir
ou
tflo
w
Mo
de
lS
ub
nam
e
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l s
ub
-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l c
atc
hm
en
t u
ps
tre
am
of
19
01
3C
ross s
ec
tio
n c
on
ne
cti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
ali
ng
of
flo
w b
as
ed
on
reserv
oir
ou
tflo
w
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
4
Rep
rese
nts
flow
from
up
per
lee
com
ing
into
m
odel
N/A
N/A
8L
EE
_18
740
Po
int
1.0
00
Gau
ge
190
15
Mo
de
lS
ub
nam
e
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l s
ub
-
ca
tch
me
nt
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l c
atc
hm
en
t u
ps
tre
am
of
19
01
5C
ross s
ec
tio
n c
on
ne
cti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
ali
ng
of
flo
w b
as
ed
on
ga
ug
e
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e2
70.2
71.
000.
327
8S
HO
_0
57
Po
int
0.3
27
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e4
19.2
70.
470.
090
8S
T1_
00
3P
oin
t0
.090
low
lee4
19.2
70.
470.
090
8O
WG
_39
68
Po
int
0.0
90
low
lee4
2.62
0.06
0.01
28O
WG
_168
2 t
o 8
OW
G_
11
07
La
tera
l0
.012
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
62.4
40.
980.
291
8M
AR
_03
3P
oin
t0
.291
low
lee1
0.96
0.02
0.00
48M
AR
_02
5 t
o 8
MA
R_0
08
La
tera
l0
.004
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e3
7.68
0.31
0.03
68B
LA
_8
62
5P
oin
t0
.036
low
lee3
2.72
0.11
0.01
38B
LA
_7
87
0P
oin
t0
.013
low
lee3
6.30
0.26
0.02
98B
LA
_5
05
5P
oin
t0
.029
low
lee3
6.33
0.26
0.02
98B
LA
_4
12
8P
oin
t0
.029
low
lee3
1.45
0.06
0.00
78B
LA
_2
27
3P
oin
t0
.007
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e1
50.
510.
030.
002
8M
AR
_00
7 t
o 8
MA
R_0
01
La
tera
l0
.002
low
lee1
51.
800.
120.
008
8B
LA
_18
96
to
8B
LA
_0
La
tera
l0
.008
low
lee1
53.
970.
260.
018
8S
HO
_04
3 t
o 8
SH
O_0
26
La
tera
l0
.018
low
lee1
50.
370.
020.
002
8S
H1
_00
4 t
o 8
SH
1_0
01
La
tera
l0
.002
low
lee1
57.
230.
470.
034
8O
WG
_7
93
Po
int
0.0
34
low
lee1
51.
430.
09N
/A8S
HO
_0
14
Po
int
0.0
93
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E22
Sc
ale
d f
rom
ga
ug
e 1
90
16
Mo
del
Su
bn
am
e
Su
bc
atc
hm
en
t a
rea
(km
2)
Perc
en
tag
e o
f to
tal
su
b-
catc
hm
en
tC
ros
s s
ec
tio
n c
on
ne
cti
on
Typ
e o
f in
flo
w
Sc
ali
ng
of
flo
w (
bas
ed
on
rain
fall)
Sca
lin
g o
f fl
ow
fo
r m
od
el
inp
ut
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e5
8.21
0.95
8C
UR
_7
76
9 t
o 8
CU
R_
12
58
La
tera
l1.
000.0
73
low
lee5
0.43
0.05
8C
U1
_50
5 t
o 8
CU
1_
0L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
04
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e6
7.25
0.94
8G
LA
_3
56
6 t
o 8
GL
A_
70
La
tera
l1.
000.0
65
low
lee6
0.49
0.06
8S
OU
_3
47
2 t
o 8
SO
U_
23
05
La
tera
l1.
000.0
04
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e7
6.26
0.66
8C
UR
_95
99
Po
int
1.00
0.0
56
low
lee7
1.79
0.19
8C
U3
_0
03
Po
int
1.00
0.0
16
low
lee7
1.49
0.16
8C
UR
_9
19
7 t
o 8
CU
R_
77
69
La
tera
l1.
000.0
13
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e8
5.50
0.83
8C
U1
_34
08
Po
int
1.00
0.0
49
low
lee8
1.10
0.17
8C
U4
_0
02
Po
int
1.00
0.0
10
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e9
10.5
71.
008T
WO
_8
65
Po
int
1.00
0.0
94
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e10
11.9
11.
008C
U2
_0
06
Po
int
1.00
0.1
06
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e13
6.14
0.33
8L
EE
_9
72
5 t
o 8
LE
E_5
30
7L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
55
low
lee
13
5.73
0.31
8L
EE
_5
15
0 t
o 8
LE
E_1
78
2L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
51
low
lee
13
2.49
0.13
8S
OU
_36
59
to
8S
OU
_0
La
tera
l1.
000.0
22
low
lee
13
4.21
0.23
8L
EE
_16
73
to
8L
EE
_0
La
tera
l1.
000.0
38
Low
er L
eelo
wle
e14
3.43
17.8
88R
BR
_01
5P
oin
t1.
000.0
31
low
lee
14
1.83
9.54
8L
EE
_1
70
24
Po
int
1.00
0.0
16
low
lee
14
4.81
25.0
88
RB
R_0
15
to
8R
BR
_00
1 a
nd
8L
EE
_1
546
6 t
o 8
LE
E_
147
74
La
tera
l1.
000.0
43
low
lee
14
2.18
11.3
78B
AL
_28
25
to
8B
AL
_0
La
tera
l1.
000.0
19
low
lee
14
2.30
11.9
98
LE
E_
14
71
5 t
o 8
LE
E_1
20
09
La
tera
l1.
000.0
21
low
lee
14
1.85
9.65
8L
EE
_11
92
8 t
o 8
LE
E_
992
1L
ate
ral
1.00
0.0
17
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E23
Lower Lee model inputs
Table E21 Fraction of subcatchments of total catchment area.
Model Subname Catchment area (km2) Fraction of total catchment (-)
Lower Lee lowlee1 63.40 15.12Lower Lee lowlee2 70.27 16.75Lower Lee lowlee3 24.48 5.84Lower Lee lowlee4 41.16 9.81Lower Lee lowlee5 8.64 2.06Lower Lee lowlee6 7.74 1.85Lower Lee lowlee7 9.54 2.27Lower Lee lowlee8 6.60 1.57Lower Lee lowlee9 10.57 2.52Lower Lee lowlee10 11.91 2.84Lower Lee lowlee11 62.91 15.00Lower Lee lowlee12 49.15 11.72Lower Lee lowlee13 18.57 4.43Lower Lee lowlee14 19.18 4.57Lower Lee lowlee15 15.31 3.65
419.43
Lee Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study
Hydrology Report
E24
Table E22 Lower Lee model inflow details
Design flows
Model Subname
Subcatcment area
(km2)
Percentage of total
sub-catchment Cross section connection Type of inflow
Lower Lee lowlee1 62.44 0.98 8MAR_033 Point
lowlee1 0.96 0.02 8MAR_025 to 8MAR_008 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee2 70.27 1.00 8SHO_057 Point
Lower Lee lowlee3 7.68 0.31 8BLA_8625 Point
lowlee3 2.72 0.11 8BLA_7870 Point
lowlee3 6.30 0.26 8BLA_5055 Point
lowlee3 6.33 0.26 8BLA_4128 Point
lowlee3 1.45 0.06 8BLA_2273 Point
Lower Lee lowlee4 19.27 0.47 8ST1_003 Point
lowlee4 19.27 0.47 8OWG_3968 Point
lowlee4 2.62 0.06 8OWG_1682 to 8OWG_1107 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee5 8.21 0.95 8CUR_7769 to 8CUR_1258 Lateral
lowlee5 0.43 0.05 8CU1_505 to 8CU1_0 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee6 7.25 0.94 8GLA_3566 to 8GLA_70 Lateral
lowlee6 0.49 0.06 8SOU_3472 to 8SOU_2305 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee7 6.26 0.66 8CUR_9599 Point
lowlee7 1.79 0.19 8CU3_003 Point
lowlee7 1.49 0.16 8CUR_9197 to 8CUR_7769 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee8 5.50 0.83 8CU1_3408 Point
lowlee8 1.10 0.17 8CU4_002 Point
Lower Lee lowlee9 10.57 1.00 8TWO_865 Point
Lower Lee lowlee10 11.91 1.00 8CU2_006 Point
Lower Lee lowlee11 1.19 0.02 8RBR_070 Point
lowlee11 19.05 0.30 8RBR_064 Point
lowlee11 2.14 0.03 8RBR_053 Point
lowlee11 12.12 0.19 8RBR_058 Point
lowlee11 15.73 0.25 8RBR_048 Point
lowlee11 7.35 0.12 8RBR_043 Point
lowlee11 5.33 0.08 8RBR_039 to 8RBR_015 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee12 46.77 0.95 8RBR_080 Point
lowlee12 2.38 0.05 8RBR_080 to 8RBR_071 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee13 N/Adesign inflow from
bride model 8LEE_2538 Point
lowlee13 6.14 0.33 8LEE_9725 to 8LEE_5307 Lateral
lowlee13 5.73 0.31 8LEE_5150 to 8LEE_1782 Lateral
lowlee13 2.49 0.13 8SOU_3659 to 8SOU_0 Lateral
lowlee13 4.21 0.23 8LEE_1673 to 8LEE_0 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee14 N/Adesign inflow from
upper lee model 8LEE_18740 Point
lowlee14 3.43 0.18 8RBR_015 Point
lowlee14 2.78 0.14 8LEE_18740 Point
lowlee14 1.83 0.10 8LEE_17024 Point
lowlee14 4.81 0.25
8RBR_015 to 8RBR_001 and
8LEE_15466 to 8LEE_14774 Lateral
lowlee14 2.18 0.11 8BAL_2825 to 8BAL_0 Lateral
lowlee14 2.30 0.12 8LEE_14715 to 8LEE_12009 Lateral
lowlee14 1.85 0.10 8LEE_11928 to 8LEE_9921 Lateral
Lower Lee lowlee15 0.51 0.03 8MAR_007 to 8MAR_001 Lateral
lowlee15 1.80 0.12 8BLA_1896 to 8BLA_0 Lateral
lowlee15 3.97 0.26 8SHO_043 to 8SHO_026 Lateral
lowlee15 0.37 0.02 8SH1_004 to 8SH1_001 Lateral
lowlee15 7.23 0.47 8OWG_793 Point
lowlee15 1.43 0.10 8SHO_013 Point
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Appendix F. Future drivers of flood risk
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F1 Climate change literature review
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
IPCC 4th Assessment report (2007)
The IPCC 4th Assessment report culminates the past six years of world wide scientific and technical literature published on climate change, its potential impacts and possible mitigation/adaptation options. The report states “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (assessed likelihood >90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. A number of different scenarios are available to estimate what emissions might be expected in the future, encompassing a range of probable economic, political, population and technological developments in the next century. The best estimate of projected changes in mean global temperature for the end of this century range from 1.8 to 4°C, depending on the emissions scenario used.
It is very likely that heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. Although there is no clear trend in the number of hurricanes occurring, some research suggests very intense storms are becoming more common as the oceans warm.
The report states that global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8mm/year (1961-2003) and this rate has accelerated to 3.1mm/year over the past decade (1993-2003). Although, whether the faster rate for 1993-2003 reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear. Projections on globally averaged sea level rise by 2100 for various greenhouse gas emissions range between 0.18m to 0.38m (scenario B1: assuming a best estimate of 1.8°C increase) to between 0.26m to 0.59m (scenario A1FI: assuming a best estimate of 4.0°C increase).
The emission scenarios range from B1 with an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives; to A1FI with an emphasis on increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income, with the energy system energy fossil intensive. These estimates are based on thermal expansion of ocean water and melting glaciers and ice caps. Beyond 2100, larger changes will occur due to the melting of ice sheets, having consequences on coastal communities and flooding.
Irish Committee on Climate Change – Ireland and the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)
The Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) based at Met Éireann and the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS) at NUI Maynooth have downscaled the latest climate models to project the impact of climate change in Ireland. In general, most global average predictions will be applicable due to the mid-latitude of the country. The climate will potentially warm slightly faster than the global average over the next few decades, and winter rainfall will increase, predominantly in the west of Ireland. Summer rainfall will decline, predominantly on the east coast.
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UK Climates Impact Programme 2002 (UKCIP, 2002)
UK
The UKCIP02 (Hulme et al, 2002) publication estimates climate change predictions for a range of parameters for four scenarios of future climate change, known as: High, Medium-high, Medium-Low and Low, relating to different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The future predictions are based on three time horizons, 2020, 2050 and 2080.
The findings estimate that UK winters will become wetter and summers drier. Extreme winter precipitation will become more frequent. As global temperature warms, global-average sea level may rise between 23cm and 36cm by the 2080’s. Extreme sea levels, occurring through combinations of high tides, sea level rise and changes in wind will be experienced more frequently in many coastal locations.
Ireland
For Ireland, winter precipitation totals are expected to increase and summer precipitation totals to decrease. The largest percentage changes are in the east and south of Ireland. Winter precipitation is estimated to increase by between 10% (Low and Medium-Low emission scenarios) and 15% by 2080 (Medium-High and High emission scenarios) for the area of Ireland where the Lee catchment is situated. Changes in global average sea level will occur as a consequence of global temperature change. The increase in sea level will be due to thermal expansion of ocean water and through melting of glaciers. It is estimated, dependent on which emissions scenario is adopted, that global average sea level will rise by between 23cm and 36cm by 2080.
The change in the 50-year return period surge height for the 2080s for the area of sea surrounding Cork for three different emissions scenarios is estimated to be 0.1m (Low emissions scenario), 0.3m (Medium-High emissions scenario) and 0.6m (High emissions scenario). This considers the combined effect of global-average sea-level rise, storminess changes and vertical land movements.
Sea-level rise will lead to locally deeper water in the near-shore zone and therefore lead to greater wave energy being transmitted to the shoreline. In addition changes in wind speed will also occur. The 2-year return period daily-average wind speed is estimated to increase by up to 6% for winter in the 2080s, assuming a Medium-high or High emissions scenario.
Implications of the EU Climate Protection Target for Ireland (EPA, 2007)
The European Union (EU) has adopted a long-term climate protection target to limit global mean temperatures to not more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This action is in response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article 2 objective which is to stabilise “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
The aim of the recent EPA published report by ICARUS (McElwain and Sweeney, 2007), was to provide an assessment of what the EU 2°C target means for Ireland. Scientific analyses suggest that the rate of temperature increase may be as important as the absolute change. The current rate of global temperature increase of 0.2-0.3°C per decade is already greater than that experienced over the past 10,000 years. A high rate of change can increase the risk of high-impact events.
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McElwain and Sweeney, highlight that “Ireland will also experience significant climate change impacts below 2°C, many of which are now unavoidable. Adaptation actions will be required to reduce adverse impacts of these changes.” Increased frequency and magnitude of flooding will be a consequence of increasing global mean temperatures, which will have important implications for infrastructure and development on affected flood plains. There will also be impacts on the reliability of existing flood defences, and, in the future, increased insurance costs.
The impact of sea level rise will be most apparent in coastal cities in Ireland, including Cork. The major effect for Cork will be increased risk of flooding both at the coast and along major rivers during storm surge events (Fealy, 2003).
Predictions for future storms are still uncertain; however the theory supporting the drivers for hurricanes strongly suggests that peak intensities would be higher with warmer ocean temperatures.
Statistical downscaling from an ensemble of three Global Climate Models (GCM), project for the end of the present century (2080), an increase in precipitation of between 11% and 17% for winter months (Sweeney and Fealy, 2006).
Climate change impacts can occur in two ways; firstly, linear and smooth, thus relatively predictable, allowing society time to adapt and allowing impacts to be managed. Secondly, abruptly, occurring over timescales from years to decades, with little warning and leaving less time for adaptability.
Regional Climate Model Predictions for Ireland (McGrath et al, 2005)
The Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) project has enabled the establishment of a regional climate modelling facility in Met Éireann, as documented in the C4I Annual Report 2004 (McGrath et al, 2004). A key objective is to develop a new national capacity to forecast future climate conditions in Ireland. This is considered to be necessary for the development of national planning for adaptation to the impacts of projected climate change.
McGrath et al (2005), provides an analysis of future Irish climate conditions for the period 2021–2060 based on the outputs from the Met Éireann Regional Climate Model (RCM) using 1961-2000 as a reference. The Met Éireann RCM improves the understanding of climate change and its implications for Ireland, and quantifies the uncertainties in the climate projections.
The RCM projects temperature changes, which show a general warming in the future period with mean monthly temperatures increasing typically between 1.25 and 1.5°C, the largest increases are seen in the southeast and east, with the greatest warming occurring in July.
For precipitation, the most significant changes occur in the months of June and December; June values show a decrease of about 10% compared with the current climate, noticeably in the southern half of the country; March, July and August are largely unchanged but all other months show overall increases. December values show increases ranging between 10% in the south-east and 25% in the north-west. There is also some evidence of an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events (i.e. events which exceed 20 mm or more per day) in the north-west.
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In the future scenario, the frequency of intense cyclones (storms) over the North Atlantic area in the vicinity of Ireland is increased by about 15% compared with the current climate, with even stronger increases in winter and spring. This is related to the projected general rise in sea surface temperatures.
The impact of climate change predictions on river flooding was modelled under different scenarios using the Suir catchment as a pilot study. The increase in winter precipitation was found to produce a significant increase in the more intense discharge episodes, raising the risk of future flooding in the area. The model predicts an increase in frequency and intensity of heavy discharges e.g. above 350m3/s. The 10 year return period flow increased from 290m3/s to 360m3/s (an increase of 24%). This highlights the implications faced by future planning to reduce impacts of flooding.
It should be noted that the catchment response to rainfall is catchment specific and this will vary catchment to catchment.
Scenarios and Impacts for Ireland (Sweeney et al, 2003)
This report presents an assessment of the magnitude and likely impacts of climate change in Ireland over the course of the current century, based on statistical downscaling of the GCM output from the Hadley Centre model (used in the UKCIP02 study), to project likely changes in Irish climate from the 1961–1990 averages. The results of this analysis suggest that current mean January temperatures in Ireland are predicted to increase by 1.5°C by mid-century with a further increase of 0.5–1.0°C by 2075. By 2055, the extreme south and south-west coasts will have a mean January temperature of 7.5–8.0°C. By then, winter conditions in Northern Ireland and in the north Midlands will be similar to those currently experienced along the south coast. Since temperature is a primary meteorological parameter, secondary parameters such as frost frequency and growing season length and thermal efficiency can be expected to undergo considerable changes over this time interval. July mean temperatures will increase by 2.5°C by 2055 and a further increase of 1.0°C by 2075 can be expected. Mean maximum July temperatures in the order of 22.5°C will prevail generally with areas in the central Midlands experiencing mean maxima up to 24.5°C. Overall increases of 11% in precipitation are predicted for the winter months of December–February. The greatest increases are suggested for the north-west, where increases of approximately 20% are suggested by mid-century. Little change is indicated for the east coast and in the eastern part of the Central Plain. Marked decreases in rainfall during the summer and early autumn months across eastern and central Ireland are predicted. Nationally, these are of the order of 25% with decreases of over 40% in some parts of the east.
Global sea level is projected to rise by approximately 0.5 m by the end of the century, predominantly due to warming and expansion of the ocean water body. In Ireland, this figure will be modified by local land-level changes.
As a general approximation, land retreat of about 1m can be anticipated on sandy coastlines in Ireland for every centimetre rise in sea level. Inundation risk must also take into account storm surge events and high tide frequencies. A value of 2.6m OD Malin for extreme water level presently occurs with a return frequency of 12 years on the west coast and 100 years on the east coast. These return periods of extreme water level are likely to reduce considerably as sea levels rise. Combining these extreme water levels with a sea-level rise of 0.49m places approximately 300km2 of land in Ireland at risk of inundation.
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In situations where land loss cannot be economically defended, it should not be contemplated. Where infrastructure is at risk of inundation, cost-beneficial solutions may exist. This is particularly the case in the cities of Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway, and for assets such as railway lines, airports and power stations.
Foresight (2004)
The Foresight study, undertaken based on the UK (2004) provided a vision for flood and coastal defence in the UK between 2030 and 2100, to inform long-term policy. The study considered four scenarios based on different approaches to governance (centralised versus localised) and different values held by society (consumerist versus community). Various future drivers of flood risk were evaluated, amongst these precipitation, relative sea level rise and surges. It was concluded that climate change has a high impact in all of the four scenarios studied. Relative sea level rise could increase the risk of coastal flooding by 4 to 10 times by 2080. Therefore there could be a change in the frequency of flooding, for example a flood with a current Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) of 1% could occur with an AEP of between 4% and 10% by 2080. Precipitation will increase risks across the country by 2 to 4 times by 2080, although specific locations could experience changes well outside this range. In addition the increase in surge could increase the risk of coastal flooding by 2 to 10 times (depending on scenario adopted). [Risk is taken to mean: probability x consequences, where consequences relate to people and the natural and built environment].
Projecting future sea level rise (Rahmstorf, 2007)
Due to the complex mechanisms and varying timescales involved, Rahmstorf uses a semi-empirical model of sea-level rise, where a simple linear relationship is developed between observed global sea-level and observed temperature. This is done for the period 1880-2001, which reveals a highly significant correlation with an average rise of 3.4 mm per year. This relationship allows future sea-levels to be explored, given different scenarios of 21st century temperature. Using the IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios (which span a range of temperature increases from 1.4 to 5.8°C) as input, a best estimate of sea-level rise of 55 to 125cm by 2100 is estimated. These numbers are significantly higher than the model-based estimates of the IPCC, which give a range of 9 to 88cm for the same scenarios, and may have important implications for planning adaptation measures at the coast. Although such an approach makes the assumption that the observed relationship between global temperatures and global sea-level will hold in to the future, it does at least allow a lowest plausible limit to sea-level rise to be estimated. This is found to be 38 cm from 1990 to 2100, as any lower value would require that the rate of sea-level drops despite rising temperatures, an inverse of the pattern observed during the 20th century.
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F2 Defra flood and coastal defence appraisal guidance
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