CBRFC Updates Michelle Schmidt, Hydrologist in Charge.

CBRFC Updates

Michelle Schmidt, Hydrologist in Charge

Outline

• CBRFC Climate Services• ET project• Migration to CHPS• Status of HEFS efforts• Linkage to USBR mid-term probabilistic

Climate Services currently offered by River Forecast Centers-Partial List-

Water Supply Forecasts• Probabilistic forecasts for amount of spring melt in western USA• Forecasts issued at least monthly January through June• Support water management and drought decision making• Joint responsibility with NOAA/RFCs and NRCS/NWCC• wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov

Weather and Climate Analysis• Hourly, daily, and monthly analysis – both real time and retrospective• In situ and remote sensing data merged through manual QC process• Weather and climate datasets downscaled to basin scales• Mosaic precip analysis webpage (water.weather.gov/precip) one of NWS’s most popular

Peak Flow Forecasts• Probabilistic forecasts snowmelt peak flow in western USA• Forecasts issued at least monthly March until peak flow occurs• Support water management and emergency management decision making• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov for example

Stakeholder Decision Support• Established working relationships with many major water agencies• Many stakeholders receive climate services already from RFCs• Operational center staffed 365 days per year with real time support• Water Supply Webinars

Potential New Climate Services based on RFC capabilities

Climate Change Hydrologic Sensitivity • RFCs have well calibrated models covering every major watershed in the country. These models may be used to assess basin sensitivities to modified temperatures and/or precipitation

Water Resources Outlook• RFC models simulate real time soil moisture, snow, and streamflow• Streamflow forecasts – coupled with weather and climate forecasts - may be used to generate outlooks for water resources nation wide

Hydrologic Expertise• NOAA envisions RFCs becoming centers for water resources information• Hydrology, climate, and meteorology expertise at RFCs is extensive and applied

What’s Needed?• Historical RFC focus on flood forecasting is important and needs to continue• RFCs need to be engaged in the dialogue on climate and drought services.

2. Dynamic evaporative demand in the Sac-SMA model across CBRFC•replacing the current, static ET driver of the Sac-SMA model with a physically based,accurate, and temporally dynamic driver;•improving ET-treatment in river forecast operations;•improving streamflow forecast skill at water-supply seasonal (and daily) time-scales;•CBRFC operational questions:

- calibration of basins: parameter choice, optimizations scheme, time-scales, skill statistic- water supply forecast time-scales // seasonal volumes- daily operations // low flows, peak flows, peak-flow timing

-incorporation of seasonal drivers (e.g., Climate Forecast System)

1. Forecasting reference crop ET (ETrc) across NWS Western Region• providing ETrc forecasts that are scientifically sound, web-disseminated, fine-resolution,

accurate, and daily-to-weekly;• CBRFC developed a 30-year, CONUS-wide climatology to add value to these forecasts;• primarily for use in agriculture – irrigation scheduling• significant promise in drought analyses:

• ongoing drought monitoring and forecast drought development• examining historic drought trends• as a US Drought Monitor input:

• monitor currently has no explicit ET-related input• its PDSI input has a temperature-based Ep driving its bucket model

• also useful for utility districts’ demand-planning; trans-mountain diversions;reservoir operations; hydrologic science community

ET project goals and accomplishments:

Forecasting ETrc

Climatology surface, specific to date and tailored to WFO

Forecast surface,generated at WFO

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NLDAS: North American Land Data Assimilation System

• Air temperature at 2 m• Specific humidity at 2 m• Down-welling SW radiation• Down-welling LW radiation• Station pressure• Wind speed at 10 m

• Hourly input• Daily output• CONUS-wide•0.125-deg (~12 km) resolution

NDFD: National Digital Forecast Database

• Air temperature at 2 m• Dewpoint temperature at 2 m• Wind speed at 2 m• Areal extent of cloud cover

• Hourly, 3-hourly, or 6-hourly time-steps• 2.5-km / 5-km resolution HRAP grid

FRET website for Sacramento, CAhttp://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/evap/FRET/FRET.php?wfo=sto

Streamflow at Animas R,1983

Mean annual Epan, 1980 -2009Dynamic evaporative demand across CBFC: Animas River test-basin

mean, max, min daily Epan (1980-2009)

current, static E0

Epan across Animas R, 1980 - 2009 (& 1983)

1983 daily Epan

Community Hydrologic Prediction System - CHPS

• New modeling structure at all RFCs• Facilitate testing new model components• Facilitate research to operations• More insight into the model used

• Implementation complete by end of 2011

99

Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System

Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor

Hydrologic Ensemble Post-Processor

Hydrology and Water Resources Models

Hydrology and Water Resources Ensemble Product Generator

Parametric Ensemble Processor

Land Data Assimilator

EnsembleForecastProducts

H

Least Likely

Forecast Legend

Likely H

Least Likely

Forecast Legend

Likely H

Least Likely

Forecast Legend

Likely

Most Likely

_Median Fcst

? ObservedStage

Flood Stage

Verification Products

Forecasters Users

Ensemble Verification

System

10

Current HEFS Test Basins Current HEFS Test Basins at NWS River Forecast Centersat NWS River Forecast Centers

Pre-Processor, Post-Processor, HMOS

Data Assimilation

Example Testing at

CBRFC

Lake Powell inflow forecast

A 30-day ensemble forecast for entire upper basin is generated daily (219 points)

Based on GFS reforecast and CFS ensembles

(End of) Schedule

Coordinated Forecast(single number)

24 month study

Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System

Mid-Term Probabilistic Model

Stakeholders

Seasonal water resources forecasting and modeling in the

Colorado Basin circa 1980 - 2010

Seasonal water resources forecasting and modeling in the

Colorado Basin Near future

CBRFC and the USBR Mid-Term Probabilistic Model (MTPM) Development

•USBR UC and LC regions developing a probabilistic operations model to augment (and possibly replace) the 24 month study•MTPM will produce probabilistic forecasts for major USBR reservoir operations based on:

•Objective operating criteria•CBRFC ensemble forecasts•Multiple model iterations (one per each CBRFC ensemble member – currently 30 members)

•MTPM and CBRFC ESP/HEFS will support risk based decision making•CBRFC began providing ESP forecasts to USBR in Oct 2010•CBRFC will work with USBR as CBRFC transitions to HEFS

Bottom line…• CBRFC is an operational

office. This means:– Staffed and issue forecasts

365 days/year– Support stakeholder

decisions and maintain relationships with stakeholders

– Conduct and facilitate R&D to improve forecasts and products February Water Supply Forecast

CBRFC and NIDISCBRFC ForecastsClimate and

Weather Forecasts

Hydro Models

Research

Decision Makers

Value

NIDISNIDIS

NIDIS

Michelle Schmidt

CBRFC Hydrologist in ChargePhone: 801.524.5130

Email: [email protected]

Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….

www.cbrfc.noaa.gov