Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting for Coastal Rivers David Welch, Senior Hydrologist Dave Ramirez, P.E., Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Lower.

Hurricane Storm Surge Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting for Coastal Forecasting for Coastal

RiversRivers

David Welch, Senior HydrologistDavid Welch, Senior HydrologistDave Ramirez, P.E., Senior HydrologistDave Ramirez, P.E., Senior Hydrologist

National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceLower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC)Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC)

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements≈ University of Central Florida Coastal University of Central Florida Coastal

Hydroscience Analysis, Modeling & Hydroscience Analysis, Modeling & Predictive Simulations (CHAMPS) Predictive Simulations (CHAMPS) LaboratoryLaboratory

≈ USACE Vicksburg, New Orleans, Louisville, USACE Vicksburg, New Orleans, Louisville, Mobile, Hydrologic Engineering CenterMobile, Hydrologic Engineering Center

≈ USGS, Jackson, MSUSGS, Jackson, MS≈ FEMA, Region 4FEMA, Region 4≈ Meteorological Development Laboratory Meteorological Development Laboratory

(NWS)(NWS)≈ Tropical Prediction Center (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (NWS)

Overview of NWS River Overview of NWS River Forecast Center OperationsForecast Center Operations

≈ Provide routine and flood stage forecasts for rivers Provide routine and flood stage forecasts for rivers and streams. and streams.

≈ Forecast for floodsForecast for floods≈Flash floodingFlash flooding≈Dam breakDam break≈Storm SurgeStorm Surge

≈ Forecasts from the RFC are transmitted to the Forecasts from the RFC are transmitted to the public through the Weather Forecast Offices.public through the Weather Forecast Offices.

Approximate WorkloadApproximate Workload60% operations60% operations

40% development40% development

Area of Area of ResponsibilityResponsibility

• ~220,000 mi~220,000 mi22 • 479 Watersheds modeled479 Watersheds modeled• 223 Daily/flood only forecast 223 Daily/flood only forecast locations (5 day forecasts)locations (5 day forecasts)• 16 28-day forecast locations 16 28-day forecast locations on Mississippi/Ohio Rivers on Mississippi/Ohio Rivers (issued weekly)(issued weekly)• River/rainfall network of River/rainfall network of 2900 gages2900 gages

LMRFC Hurricane Storm Surge LMRFC Hurricane Storm Surge Forecast ToolsForecast Tools

≈Real-Time:Real-Time:≈NWS Dynamic Wave Operational NWS Dynamic Wave Operational

Model (DWOPER) and NWS Flood Model (DWOPER) and NWS Flood Wave (FLDWAV) Model coupled Wave (FLDWAV) Model coupled with Sea, Lake, and Overland with Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model output.model output.

≈Scenario-Based:Scenario-Based:≈Surge Scenarios run with DWOPER Surge Scenarios run with DWOPER

for New Orleans SLOSH Basin.for New Orleans SLOSH Basin.

Sea, Lake Overland Surge from Sea, Lake Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) ModelHurricanes (SLOSH) Model

≈Run at the Tropical Prediction Center.Run at the Tropical Prediction Center.≈SLOSH output is a computed water SLOSH output is a computed water

surface elevation for each point on surface elevation for each point on the modeled grid at each time step the modeled grid at each time step (34 basins modeled).(34 basins modeled).

≈Normally obtain SLOSH model runs Normally obtain SLOSH model runs about 24 hours prior to hurricane about 24 hours prior to hurricane landfall.landfall.

≈Runs are provided every 6 hours Runs are provided every 6 hours after initial run.after initial run.

New Orleans SLOSH BasinNew Orleans SLOSH Basin

DWOPER Lower Mississippi DWOPER Lower Mississippi Surge ModelSurge Model

≈Developed at the LMRFC in the early Developed at the LMRFC in the early 1980’s.1980’s.

≈Upstream boundary is discharge at Upstream boundary is discharge at Red River Landing, LA (RM 302.4).Red River Landing, LA (RM 302.4).

≈Downstream boundary is stage at Downstream boundary is stage at West Pointe a la Hache, LA (RM 48.7) West Pointe a la Hache, LA (RM 48.7) or SLOSH elevation hydrograph. or SLOSH elevation hydrograph.

≈Run on an hourly time step.Run on an hourly time step.≈Can be run with real-time SLOSH Can be run with real-time SLOSH

output or hypothetical storm surge output or hypothetical storm surge scenario.scenario.

Storm Surge ScenariosStorm Surge Scenarios≈ TPC provided LMRFC 1,640 storm surge TPC provided LMRFC 1,640 storm surge

scenarios based upon a hurricane scenarios based upon a hurricane approaching New Orleans. Classified by:approaching New Orleans. Classified by:≈Direction of storm track E, ENE, NE, NNE, N, Direction of storm track E, ENE, NE, NNE, N,

NNW, NW, WNW, W.NNW, NW, WNW, W.≈Storm speeds of 5 or 15 mph.Storm speeds of 5 or 15 mph.≈Hurricane intensities from category 1 through 5.Hurricane intensities from category 1 through 5.≈Distance from New Orleans (160 miles left to 160 Distance from New Orleans (160 miles left to 160

miles right of New Orleans).miles right of New Orleans).

≈ LMRFC Lower Mississippi DWOPER surge LMRFC Lower Mississippi DWOPER surge model is currently set up to run 5 scenarios model is currently set up to run 5 scenarios at one time.at one time.

Tracks of NW Hypothetical Tracks of NW Hypothetical StormsStorms

Gustav Surge ScenariosGustav Surge Scenarios

Hurricane Gustav SLOSH Hurricane Gustav SLOSH RunRun

Hurricane Gustav Real-Time Hurricane Gustav Real-Time Lower Mississippi Surge Lower Mississippi Surge

ForecastForecast

Hurricane Ike SLOSH RunHurricane Ike SLOSH Run

Hurricane Ike Real-Time Hurricane Ike Real-Time Lower Mississippi Surge Lower Mississippi Surge

ForecastForecast

Hurricane Katrina SLOSH Hurricane Katrina SLOSH RunRun

Hurricane Katrina Real-Time Hurricane Katrina Real-Time Lower Mississippi Surge Lower Mississippi Surge

ForecastForecast

Vermilion FLDWAV Vermilion FLDWAV ModelModel

Stage Upstream Boundary

Downstream Bound:VCPL1 NOS Tide blended with GFS Storm Surge. Inserted 5 miles belowPerry (VRPL1).

Lateral inflows derived from NWSRFS hydrologic model inserted into the Vermilion at:

LafayetteSurrey StHwy 733Perry

Geometry derived from Geometry derived from HEC-RAS deck provided to HEC-RAS deck provided to LMRFC by USACELMRFC by USACE

Hurricane Ike Real-Time Hurricane Ike Real-Time Vermilion Surge ForecastVermilion Surge Forecast

UCF/LMRFC Collaborative UCF/LMRFC Collaborative Modeling on the Lower Modeling on the Lower Pascagoula River, MS. Pascagoula River, MS.

≈ UCF – 2-D River/Estuary/Ocean ModelUCF – 2-D River/Estuary/Ocean Model≈Developed using ADCIRC grid of Gulf CoastDeveloped using ADCIRC grid of Gulf Coast≈Upstream flows from LMRFCUpstream flows from LMRFC

≈ LMRFC – Hydraulic River ModelLMRFC – Hydraulic River Model≈Developed using upstream flow/stage Developed using upstream flow/stage

hydrographs and downstream stage hydrographs and downstream stage hydrographs for calibration.hydrographs for calibration.

≈Operational downstream stage hydrographs Operational downstream stage hydrographs from UCFfrom UCF

≈ Riverine bathymetry use by both LMRFC Riverine bathymetry use by both LMRFC and UCF.and UCF.

Pascagoula River Pascagoula River ModelModel

Study AreaStudy Area

Tributaries:Tributaries:Escatawpa RiverEscatawpa RiverRed CreekRed CreekBlack CreekBlack CreekBig CreekBig Creek

Upstream boundaries:Upstream boundaries:Black Ck @ Wiggins, MS. Black Ck @ Wiggins, MS. Pasc @ Merrill, MS. Agricola, Pasc @ Merrill, MS. Agricola, MS. Big Ck @ Big Ck, MS. Red MS. Big Ck @ Big Ck, MS. Red Ck @ Vestry, MSCk @ Vestry, MSLocal flows:Local flows:Grahms Ferry, MS, Grahms Ferry, MS, Orange Grove, MS from Orange Grove, MS from NWSRFSNWSRFS

Downstream boundary:Downstream boundary:SLOSH ModelSLOSH ModelADCIRC ModelADCIRC Model

Model Geometry Model Geometry DevelopmentDevelopment

HEC-RAS Model HEC-RAS Model DevelopmentDevelopment

Future WorkFuture Work

≈Conversion of LMRFC DWOPER and Conversion of LMRFC DWOPER and FLDWAV models to HEC-RAS.FLDWAV models to HEC-RAS.

≈Complete development and Complete development and calibration of Pascagoula model to calibration of Pascagoula model to ready for operational environment.ready for operational environment.

≈Development of new coastal Development of new coastal hydraulic models. hydraulic models.

≈Inundation Mapping using GIS?Inundation Mapping using GIS?