Zomer r 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101_(building_14-24)

Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Asian Highlands

Robert Zomer, Ph.D.

Visiting Professor/ Landscape Ecologist

Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies

Kunming Institute of Botany /

World Agroforestry Centre

Kunming, Yunnan Province, P.R. China

r.zomer@cgiar.org

Our Common Future under Climate Change

Paris - July 9th, 2015

Hindu Kush – Himalaya Source: ICIMOD

Global Hotspot of Biodiversity

Agrobiodiversity

Retreating Imja Glacier (near Mt. Everest)

In 2007 (photo: Alton Byers, The

Mountain Institute)

In 1956 (Erwin Schneider, Khumbu, Nepal, 1956 – 1961 Courtesy of the Association for Comparative Alpine Research, Munich Archives of Alton Byers, The Mountain Institute)

Climate Change in Asian Highlands Accelerated change

Temps rising faster in higher elevations

Glacial melting – rate higher than global avg.

o Glacial lake outbursts – mountain hazards

Loss of permafrost – Tibetan Plateau

Disrupted Agricultural Cycles

o Changes in timing of runoff

o More precipitation as rainfall

o Earlier snowmelt, shorter winters

Impacts on natural systems / ecological interactions

o Shifting of Species Ranges / Protected Areas

o Invasive species and pests

Increase in Extreme Events

o Floods, droughts

Impacts on communities and livelihoods

Asian Highlands – contributes very little to global GHG emissions

• Physical change Unsustainable extraction of resources,

introduced and invasive species, forest degradation, landuse/cover change, habitat loss

• Climate change Rise in temperature, seasonal change in

precipitation regime, extreme weather conditions

• Demographic and socio-economic change

Immigration, poverty, limited development options, majority on subsistence livelihood

Conservation and Livelihood Challenges

Year of Climate Departure:

An estimate of the year when the climate

(i.e., near surface air temperature)

exceeds the bounds of historical

variability for a particular location.

Source: Mora et al., 2013

China – Provinces Ranked by Year of Climate Departure

Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050

Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050

Average 1.6 to 2.5° C by 2050

Predicted Change in Mean Annual Precipitation 2000 - 2050

Change in Water Balance: In-Situ Excess Water (Runoff) – 2050 (RCP 8.5)

Percent of area shifting to another zone: 48% ; to another stratum: 85%

Ecoregional Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Zones - Kailash Sacred Landscape - China, India, Nepal

Ecoregional Analysis of Climate Change Impact - Kailash Sacred Landscape China, India, Nepal

Yunnan Province, China: Spatial Distribution Of Bioclimatic Zones By 2050

Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Spatial Distribution Of Bioclimatic Zones By 2050

BioclimaticZone Zone UpwardShift

2000 RCP85 km2% 2000 RCP85 (m)

Extremelycoldandmesic F 1,345 362 (983) (73) 4,248 4,617 368Coldandmesic G 3,830 2,564 (1,266) (33) 3,526 3,881 354

Cooltemperateandxeric H 32 304 272 850 2,985 3,510 525

Cooltemperateandmoist J 2,590 2,705 115 4 2,937 3,276 339Warmtemperateandmesic K 9,449 8,471 (978) (10) 2,225 2,491 265Warmtemperateandxeric L 403 612 209 52 1,679 2,103 424Hotandmesic N 4,370 3,452 (918) (21) 1,156 1,694 537Extremelyhotandmesic M 1,592 2,678 1,086 68 777 1,125 348

Extremelyhotandmoist R 64 2,527 2,463 3,848 606 855 249

Yunnan-AllProtectedArea 37923675

ProtectedArea(km2) AreaChange MeanElevation(masl)

AverageUpwardShift

• 56% projected to shift to different bioclimatic zone by the year 2050 (i.e., under RCP 8.5)

• 93% will shift to at least one different bioclimatic strata

Protected Area in Yunnan

Interactions of Climate Change and On-going Landuse Change Processes

Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China • China’s “Treasure House of Biodiversity”

• Among richest areas in flowering species in the world

• Over 5000 species of flowering plant and ferns;

• 153 endemic species and 56 rare and endangered species

• Tropical/sub-tropical: Convergence of Eastern Himalaya / SEA floristic

• The region contains China’s largest area of diverse types of mature tropical forest

• Northernmost tropical rainforest in the world.

Rubber plantations Xishuangbanna, China, 2010

credit: Science 2009 324:1024 credit: Science 2009 324:1024

credit: Nature 2009 457:246

>20,000 km2 have been converted to mono-culture rubber in mainland SE Asia (5,000 km2 forest)

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.

Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.

Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

Upward zone shift of 280 meters >75% of Xishuangbanna shifting to a different zone

Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China

Bioclimatic Zones

By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.

Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations

Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m

Upward zone shift of 280 meters >75% of Xishuangbanna shifting to a different zone

Potential Impacts on Efficacy of Protected Area Network

From Data to Dialog - Evidence-based Informed Decision-Making for Adaptation

Asian Highlands Knowledge Platform Interactive Information Flow Community-Based Empowerment

www.asianhighlands.org

Robert Zomer, Ph.D. r.zomer@cgiar.org

www.asianhighlands.org