Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Asian Highlands Robert Zomer, Ph.D. Visiting Professor/ Landscape Ecologist Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies Kunming Institute of Botany / World Agroforestry Centre Kunming, Yunnan Province, P.R. China [email protected] Our Common Future under Climate Change Paris - July 9 th , 2015
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Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Asian Highlands
Robert Zomer, Ph.D.
Visiting Professor/ Landscape Ecologist
Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies
Kunming Institute of Botany /
World Agroforestry Centre
Kunming, Yunnan Province, P.R. China
Our Common Future under Climate Change
Paris - July 9th, 2015
Hindu Kush – Himalaya Source: ICIMOD
Global Hotspot of Biodiversity
Agrobiodiversity
Retreating Imja Glacier (near Mt. Everest)
In 2007 (photo: Alton Byers, The
Mountain Institute)
In 1956 (Erwin Schneider, Khumbu, Nepal, 1956 – 1961 Courtesy of the Association for Comparative Alpine Research, Munich Archives of Alton Byers, The Mountain Institute)
Climate Change in Asian Highlands Accelerated change
Temps rising faster in higher elevations
Glacial melting – rate higher than global avg.
o Glacial lake outbursts – mountain hazards
Loss of permafrost – Tibetan Plateau
Disrupted Agricultural Cycles
o Changes in timing of runoff
o More precipitation as rainfall
o Earlier snowmelt, shorter winters
Impacts on natural systems / ecological interactions
o Shifting of Species Ranges / Protected Areas
o Invasive species and pests
Increase in Extreme Events
o Floods, droughts
Impacts on communities and livelihoods
Asian Highlands – contributes very little to global GHG emissions
• Physical change Unsustainable extraction of resources,
introduced and invasive species, forest degradation, landuse/cover change, habitat loss
• Climate change Rise in temperature, seasonal change in
precipitation regime, extreme weather conditions
• Demographic and socio-economic change
Immigration, poverty, limited development options, majority on subsistence livelihood
Conservation and Livelihood Challenges
Year of Climate Departure:
An estimate of the year when the climate
(i.e., near surface air temperature)
exceeds the bounds of historical
variability for a particular location.
Source: Mora et al., 2013
China – Provinces Ranked by Year of Climate Departure
Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050
Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050
Average 1.6 to 2.5° C by 2050
Predicted Change in Mean Annual Precipitation 2000 - 2050
Change in Water Balance: In-Situ Excess Water (Runoff) – 2050 (RCP 8.5)
Percent of area shifting to another zone: 48% ; to another stratum: 85%
Ecoregional Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Zones - Kailash Sacred Landscape - China, India, Nepal
Ecoregional Analysis of Climate Change Impact - Kailash Sacred Landscape China, India, Nepal
Yunnan Province, China: Spatial Distribution Of Bioclimatic Zones By 2050
Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Spatial Distribution Of Bioclimatic Zones By 2050
BioclimaticZone Zone UpwardShift
2000 RCP85 km2% 2000 RCP85 (m)
Extremelycoldandmesic F 1,345 362 (983) (73) 4,248 4,617 368Coldandmesic G 3,830 2,564 (1,266) (33) 3,526 3,881 354
Cooltemperateandxeric H 32 304 272 850 2,985 3,510 525
Cooltemperateandmoist J 2,590 2,705 115 4 2,937 3,276 339Warmtemperateandmesic K 9,449 8,471 (978) (10) 2,225 2,491 265Warmtemperateandxeric L 403 612 209 52 1,679 2,103 424Hotandmesic N 4,370 3,452 (918) (21) 1,156 1,694 537Extremelyhotandmesic M 1,592 2,678 1,086 68 777 1,125 348
Extremelyhotandmoist R 64 2,527 2,463 3,848 606 855 249
Yunnan-AllProtectedArea 37923675
ProtectedArea(km2) AreaChange MeanElevation(masl)
AverageUpwardShift
• 56% projected to shift to different bioclimatic zone by the year 2050 (i.e., under RCP 8.5)
• 93% will shift to at least one different bioclimatic strata
Protected Area in Yunnan
Interactions of Climate Change and On-going Landuse Change Processes
Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China • China’s “Treasure House of Biodiversity”
• Among richest areas in flowering species in the world
• Over 5000 species of flowering plant and ferns;
• 153 endemic species and 56 rare and endangered species
• Tropical/sub-tropical: Convergence of Eastern Himalaya / SEA floristic
• The region contains China’s largest area of diverse types of mature tropical forest
• Northernmost tropical rainforest in the world.
Rubber plantations Xishuangbanna, China, 2010
credit: Science 2009 324:1024 credit: Science 2009 324:1024
credit: Nature 2009 457:246
>20,000 km2 have been converted to mono-culture rubber in mainland SE Asia (5,000 km2 forest)
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Upward zone shift of 280 meters >75% of Xishuangbanna shifting to a different zone
Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Upward zone shift of 280 meters >75% of Xishuangbanna shifting to a different zone
Potential Impacts on Efficacy of Protected Area Network
From Data to Dialog - Evidence-based Informed Decision-Making for Adaptation
Asian Highlands Knowledge Platform Interactive Information Flow Community-Based Empowerment
www.asianhighlands.org
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