Tiantian Li
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Tiantian Li
1. Air Pollution and Health
Global ambient PM2.5 pollution
(NASA 2010)
Disability-adjusted DALYs in China
in 2010
(Yang et al, 2013)
Air pollution in China
• Global air pollution Urban air pollution is set to become the top environmental cause of premature mortality globally by 2050. The total number of premature deaths from exposure to particulate matter (PM) could double from current levels to 3.6 million per year, with most deaths occurring in China and India.
• Future health risk China is projected to have by far the highest rate of PM-related premature deaths at over 900 per million inhabitants in 2050.
(OECD, 2012).
2015/8/25 (The World Bank 2012)
Development of PM2.5 monitoring in China
PM2.5 Concentration, Jan 9 to 16
0
200
400
600
800
1000
PM2.5(微克/立
方米)
上甸子(振荡天平） 上甸子(β射线)城区宝联(振荡天平） 城区宝联(β射线)美国使馆(β射线) 延庆野鸭湖(振荡天平)市气象局环境移动车(β射线)
PM 2.5 Concentration in Jan, 2013
2015/8/25
2013 Spring 2013 Summer 2013 Autumn 2013 Winter
2014 Spring 2014 Summer 2014 Autumn 2014 Winter
2015 Spring
Seasonal average PM2.5 concentration
Beijing suffered
serious PM2.5
pollution
Health risk assessment in Beijing(2013-now)
25
2015/8/25
Total additional
deaths
Diseases Age
Cardiovascular Diseases
Respiratory Diseases
0-64 65-74 ≥75
2013 Spring 223 / / / / /
Summer 260 145 27 45 51 159
Autumn 283 160 30 50 56 175
Winter 413 230 44 72 80 252
2014 Spring 354 197 38 61 69 216
Summer 278 155 30 48 54 170
Autumn 413 231 44 72 80 253
Winter 370 206 39 64 72 227
2015 Spring 292 163 31 51 57 178
Health risk assessment in Beijing
•Higher PM2.5 concentration in autumn and winter;
•More extra death in autumn and winter.
•Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are the sensitive diseases
•Over 60%-70% of total extra mortality was caused by these two kinds of diseases
Total mortality Cardiovascular diseases Respiratory disease
ER
(%)
•Group over 74 years old should be concerned more
•Over 60%-70% of total extra mortality was caused by the population older than 74
ER
(%)
Total mortality 0-64 65-74 >74
2015/8/25
2. Projection of Temperature Related
Mortality under Changing Climate
Me
an T
em
pe
ratu
re (℃
)
1981-2010 Mean Annual
Temperature trend in China
(1960-2010)
1960-2010 China's temperature trend (℃)
China Meteorological Bureau
Change of Annual Surface Air Temperature
over China in 1905-2001
(Ding et al , 2006)
Temperature Projection
Annual Temperature changes during 2041-2060 by the MIROC and WRF
models compared to the period of 1981-2000
Climate Change in China
Temperature Annual average air temperature has increased by 0.5-
0.8℃ during the past 100 years, which is equal to or slightly higher than the average global temperature rise
Regional distribution of temperature changes shows that the warming trend was more significant in western, eastern and northern China than in southern China
Future temperature (annual mean) will probably increase about 2-4 ℃ by 2060s
2015/8/25
Cardiovascular diseases(I00-I99) Respiratory diseases(J00-J99)
Projection of heat related extra deaths
Figure 5 Projected heat related extra deaths of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in 1980s, 2050s, and 2080s
(Li et al., submitted 2014)
2015/8/25
Projected heat-related extra deaths in Beijing
Cardiovascular diseases(I00-I99)
(Li et al., submitted 2014)
Respiratory diseases(J00-J99)
Figure 6 Projected heat related extra mortality percentage of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in 1980s, 2050s,
and 2080s
Temperature and Mortality in Beijing
2015/8/25
-10 0 10 20 30
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Temperature
RR
Overall cumulative association of 65 years of age and older,
Beijing, with reference at 21.4 degree
-10 0 10 20 30
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
TemperatureR
R
Overall cumulative association of 15-64 years of age,
Beijing, with reference at 23.8 degree
Projection of heat-related-related deaths (Median of 31 models) in the 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s for Aged 65+
2015/8/25
2015/8/25
Concluding Comments
Rapid Health Transition in China
(Yang et al, 2013)
2015/8/25
Concluding Comments
Fast Aging in China
2015/8/25
Acknowledgement
1. National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905069,21277135)
2. Beijing Natural Science Foundation (8132048)
Research fund
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