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Poster Presentations Session 4402(a) Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements Our Common Future Under Climate Change Paris, 7-10 July 2015
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Kriegler e 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin

Feb 11, 2017

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Page 1: Kriegler e 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin

Poster Presentations Session 4402(a) Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements

Our Common Future Under Climate Change

Paris, 7-10 July 2015

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Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: the 2°C target and less stringent goals.

Olivier Dessens, Gabrial Anandarajah

This work examines the feasibility of limiting the average global temperature rise, using the latest version of the TIAM-UCL global integrated assessment model. We examine the window of opportunity for continuing to increase emissions while still limiting the average temperature rise between 2 and 3°C with different emission reduction rates. Mitigation costs and efforts between high-, middle- and low-income regions are also discussed.

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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pera

ture

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ecti

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Peaking year

NC

4%

3%

2%

1%

Minimum rate of annual decrease in emissions for a specific peaking year (x-axis)

and global warming level (y-axis). High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes EC Seventh Framework Programme Contract 603864

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Leading Partners in Science

Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research

Centre 25 AUGUST 2015 | 3

Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012

Interactions between agriculture non-CO2 mitigation choices and fossil CO2 emissions within integrated low-carbon pathways

Andy Reisinger, Joeri Rogelj, Adam Daigneault

Increasing the mitigation potential of agricultural non-CO2

emissions and supporting measures to realize this potential

could make a substantial contribution to meeting the 2°C

goal; significant effects on CO2 peak, carbon budget &

GHG prices (importance goes well beyond food security)

CO2 peak

carbon prices

carbon budgets

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Pathways to be Opened towards Low Carbon Society

– Findings on Multi-model Comparison in ICA-RUS Project

Shunsuke Mori (Tokyo Univ. of Sci), Toyoaki Washida(Sofia Univ), Atsushi Kurosawa(IAE) and Toshihiko Masui(NIES)

ICA-RUS project conducted by NIES aims at providing risk management strategies under SSP-RCP based scenarios and the knowledge on climate impacts and mitigation options. Four IAMs participate in the assessment procedure of ICA-RUS. We found the economic losses by stringent climate policy is significantly influenced by the final energy conservation assumptions while food production and land-use do not vary significantly.

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

GD

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oss

Final Energy Conservation

FInal energy conservation vs. GDP Loss

GDP-MER AIM GRAPE MARIA MARIA_UP60

MARIA_UP70 MARIA_UP80 MARIA_UP95 MARIA_UP99

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Final Energy; World

AIM/CGE-BAU

AIM/CGE-RCP2.6

AIM/CGE-RCP4.5

GRAPE-15-BAU

GRAPE-15-RCP2.6

GRAPE-15-RCP4.5

MARIA-14F5-BAU

MARIA-14F5-RCP2.6

MARIA-14F5-RCP4.5

-1%

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GDP-MER Loss ;World

AIM/CGE-BAU

AIM/CGE-RCP2.6

AIM/CGE-RCP4.5

EMEDA-MER-BAU

EMEDA-MER-RCP2.6

EMEDA-MER-RCP4.5

GRAPE-15-BAU

GRAPE-15-RCP2.6

GRAPE-15-RCP4.5

MARIA-14F5-RCP2.6

MARIA-14F5-RCP2.6

MARIA-14F5-RCP4.5

ΔGDP (%)= - 0.004 – 0.13 ΔFE(%) + 0.088 ΔCO2(%)+ 0.00035 H2Supply(EJ)(3.56) (7.24) (9.19)

Δ: Decrease from BAU78913.0ˆ 2 SamplesizeR

Other findings and conclusion: (1) CCS as well as BECCS will be essential to achieve the stringent climate target. (2) Industry structure in Asia and Africa will change depending on the climate policies. (3) The models show only small changes in the crop production and land-use patterns. Future uncertainties on technologies, policies and societal issues are the further issues to be considered.

GDP loss is significantly mitigated by the final energy conservation

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Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

1. What is the impact of choosing alternative policy instruments until 2030?

• Support for low-carbon

• Regulating the dirtiest

• Pricing carbon – carbon tax or cap-and-trade

2. How do policy instruments interact?

3. Can a realistic policy mix lay the ground for long-term achievement of the 2°C?

• Dynamic effects

• Both short-term emissions and long-term economic implications

Bertram, C., G. Luderer, R. Pietzcker, E. Schmid, E. Kriegler & O. Edenhofer (2015), Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Nr. 3, p. 235-239.

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Economic growth (SDG 8.1)

Energy access (SDG 7)

Energy security (IEA)

Protect ecosystems, halt biodiversity loss (SDG 15)

Food security (SDG 2)

Healthy lives (SDG 3.9)

Resilient infrastructure (SDG 9)

Water availability (SDG 6.4)

Air pollutant emissions

Idle coal capacity

Oil trade/ extraction

Energy price growth

New nuclear capacity

Biomass supply

ECO

NO

MIC

SO

CIA

L EN

VIR

ON

MEN

TAL Climate change mitigation

(SDG 13, UNFCCC)

Limit nuclear proliferation (IAEA)

CO2 capture & storage

Linking global IAM variables to SDGs

Consumption loss

Fossil job preservation (SDG 8.3)

Land use change

Climate change mitigation (SDG 13)

Cumulative emissions

6

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Companion Session 4402(b)

Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: National Contributions

• Regional greenhouse gas emission pathways within the context of the 2 °C target: Insights from the LIMITS project

• National pathways to deep decarbonization - Methodological insights from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project

• Technology Policies and Accelerated Diffusion of Decarbonization Wedges

• Analysis of current climate policies, INDCs and possibilities for strengthened policies at the regional scale

• Panel discussion on national perspectives Tomorrow, 14:00 – 15:30h, UNESCO Room XII

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Posters 4402(b) 1. A pathway to a low-carbon society for China

Mi Zhifu, Beijing Institute of Technology 2. Linking leadership to the upcoming global climate regime: Insights from the

German Energiewende Michael Pahle, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research

3. Towards a low-carbon Chinese economy: the role of transportation Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, CIRED

4. A dashboard and energy system models that demonstrate development indicators, technology deployment, investment and economic structure trajectories consistent with the 2oC goal, Hilton Trollip, University of Cape Town

5. Energy transitions in France: lessons from a forward-looking study Ruben Bibas, CIRED

6. Technology and innovation to low-carbon pathways in Brazil Barbara Bressan, University of Campina

7. Integrating domestic political constraints in a global agreement on pollution reduction, Aurore Staes, Paris School of Economics

8. Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States by 2050 Margaret Torn, LBNL

9. Development of pathways to achieve the SE4ALL 2030 objectives Jay Gregg, Technical University of Denmark

Visit posters for Session 4402(a+b) now at UPMC, 19:00-20:30h