Norway's knowledge platform on Short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) – holistic thinking and multiple benefits for climate change and air quality Vigdis Vestreng, Maria Malene Kvalevåg, Sigmund Guttu and Solrun Figenschau Skjellum, Norwegian Environment Agency Our Common Future Under Climate Change. International Scientific Conference 7-10 July 2015, Paris, France
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Norway's knowledge platform on Short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) – holistic thinking and multiple benefits for climate change and air quality
Vigdis Vestreng, Maria Malene Kvalevåg, Sigmund Guttu and Solrun Figenschau Skjellum, Norwegian Environment Agency
Our Common Future Under Climate Change. International Scientific Conference 7-10 July 2015, Paris, France
Why do we care about SLCF?
Short-lived climate forcers:
Black carbon, methane and tropospheric ozone, some HFCs, organic carbon and sulphur.
Relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere - a few days to a decade.
Location matters.
Warming or cooling influence on climate.
Also dangerous air pollutants, with various detrimental impacts on human health, agriculture and ecosystems.
Photo: Vigdis Vestreng
Rapid reductions are smart and possible
Co-benefits (Climate, air pollution, food production).
Mitigation of SLCFs limit the rate of warming.
Complimentary to CO2 .
Health and food security are strong policy drivers.
Contribute to several of the proposed UN Sustainable
Development Goals.
Mitigation options are available.
Norway’s SLCF knowledge platform
Five elements of our knowledge platform
1. Emission inventories and
projections.
2. Short-term net climate
effect.
3. Holistic analysis of
measures.
4. Economic analysis.
5. Reduction strategies.
Photo: iStock
Challenges for SLCF policy development
Norway’s SLCF action plan was the first of its kind.
Scientific understanding evolved rapidly – complicated policy development.
No universal methodological approach.
No internationally agreed metric.
Lack of international definitions and reporting guidelines for black carbon and organic carbon.
Photo: iStock
SLCFs CO2
Heating
Cooling
Important to reduce both short-lived climate forcers and CO2 in the
short term
The cost of measures decrease when health benefits are included
600 NOK
=100 USD/tonne
CO2eq(GTP10, Norway)
Reduction strategies
Some selection criteria:
Measure Cost-
efficiency
Climate effect Health
effect
Effectiveness of
instrument
1 High Low Høy Medium
2 Low Medium Low High
3 Medium Medium Medium High
Cost efficiency, climate and health effects are internally rated
Effectiveness of instrument is qualitatively
High
Photo: iStock
Key messages
Two-in-one solution: Climate and air
pollution.
Holistic approach is necessary to reach
the right conclusions and convey the right
message.
There is a need for internationally agreed
definitions and methodology.
Science still evolving, but strong case for
action.
Norway’s way forward
Calculate the short-term
climate effect of “CO2-
measures”.
Further develop the SLCFs
knowledge platform.
Contribute in international
cooperation (e.g. CCAC,
LRTAP, AC). Photo: Hilde Knapstad
Source: Myhre et al., Nature Geoscience (2015)
CO2 is the
most
important
forcer
An emission metric for the short term climate effect must consider:
The purpose of the assessment.
The methodology (GWP or GTP).
The time period (e.g. 10, 20 or
100 years).
The region - where the emissions
occur (e.g. globally or in Norway).
“GTP10,Norway” was developed
for the Norwegian knowledge
platform.
Photo: iStock
The challenge ahead of us
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Projected climate changes
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in the climate system
Global glacier volume will further decrease
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises
Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century
AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
A few potential impacts of Climate Change
Food and water shortages
Increased poverty
Increased displacement of people
Coastal flooding
AR5 WGII SPM
-1000
0
1000
Low Moderate
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000 1
4
6 8 1
1 9 10
12 13
2
3
5
7
1
4
Reduction strategy 1:
Cost effectiveness
Emission reduction effectiveness
Health effect Climate
effect
High
Cost
eff
ecti
veness
NO
K/to
n
Reduction strategy 3:
Cost effectiveness
+ emission reduction effectiveness
+ climate effect (> 200 kt CO2eGTP10,Norway)/year)
-1000
0
1000
Low Moderate
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
1
1 9
2
7
1
4
Emission reduction effectiveness
Health effect Climate
effect
High
Cost
eff
ecti
veness
NO
K/to
n
Accelerated introduction
of new stoves and pellet
burners
Fitting DPFs to
existing light vehicles
Fitting DPFs to
existing
construction
machines
Monitoring leak control
and containment of HFCs
DPFs on
coastal
vessels
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