Integrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050 - · PDF fileIntegrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050 The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Interactive Science Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg,

Integrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050

The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Interactive Science Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 10-12 March 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology

Strategic objective of TWI2050 initiative

The  World  in  2050  project  will  explore  the  design  of  sustainable  development  pathways  at  the  global  and  regional  scales  that  achieve  convergent  economic  and  social  development  within  planetary  boundaries  

2015 #3 Nakicenovic

Mob

ility

CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.

“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development

Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms

Distribution of the Global Population

Source: WBGU, 2014

Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)

2015 #4 Nakicenovic

Mob

ility

CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.

“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development

Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms

Distribution of the Global Population

Source: WBGU, 2014

Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)

2015 #5 Nakicenovic

B

Mob

ility

CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.

“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development

Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms

Distribution of the Global Population

Source: WBGU, 2014

Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)

2015 #6 Nakicenovic

B

Mob

ility

CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.

Unsustainable Development

Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms

Distribution of the Global Population

Source: WBGU, 2014

Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)

“Safe Space”

2015 #7 Nakicenovic

The World in 2050 Ü  How to secure global development within a safe

and just operating space

Ü  Planetary boundaries: e.g. Food; Water; Energy; Biodiversity; Climate Change

Ü  “Safe Space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives to integrated models

Ü  Transformational and BAU scenarios based on existing literature e.g. SSPs, GEA, DDPP

Ü  Multiple-benefits of transformational pathways toward the “safe space” compared to BAU

2015 #8 Nakicenovic

Possible Unified Analytical Approach

Ultimate Drivers

Knowledge and Understanding

Power Structure

Culture Values and Needs

Proximate Drivers

Population Economy Technology Governance

Source: Paul Raskin, 2002

Scenario Narratives

Integrated Models

2015 #9 Nakicenovic

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario

IIASA SRES B2 scenario

IIASA SRES A2r scenario

Urbanization World

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

Pop

ulat

ion

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

2015 #10 Nakicenovic

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario

IIASA SRES B2 scenario

IIASA SRES A2r scenario

Urbanization World, UK, BRICs

UK

BRICs

Pop

ulat

ion

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 #11 Nakicenovic

Primary Education+

Secondary Education+

Global Educational Attainment

Source: Lutz et al., 2007

Pop

ulat

ion

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 #12 Nakicenovic

Participatory Governance

Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010

Participatory

Pop

ulat

ion

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 #13 Nakicenovic

Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment

Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;

Participatory

Abolishment

1863 United States

of America

1906 China

1948 UN Declaration

of Human Rights

Pop

ulat

ion

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 #14 Nakicenovic 2015 #14 Nakicenovic

Cumulative Carbon Emissions

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6

2015 #15 Nakicenovic 2015 #15 Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6

Cumulative Carbon Emissions

2015 #16 Nakicenovic 2015 #16 Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6

Cumulative Carbon Emissions

Net-negative emissions

2015 #17 Nakicenovic 2015 #17 Nakicenovic

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Vision: Sustainable Future → Growing number of

actors of change: •  green businesses •  cities •  civil society •  science •  IGOs (eg, GEF, UNIDO)

Sustainability Transformation “Doing More with Less” within (Planetary) Boundaries

Time

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

Source: WBGU, 2011

→ Increasing problem perception

→ Policy regimes

→ Values and norms

2015 #18 Nakicenovic

Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation costs

Source: IPCC, Figure 6.33 and TS

2015 #19 Nakicenovic 2015 #19 Nakicenovic

Water

Food Energy

IIASA-GEF Nexus Research Partnership

2015 #20 Nakicenovic 2015 #20 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MikrochipKommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

VakuumröhreOttomotor

Elektrischer Motor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear-energie

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution

2015 #21 Nakicenovic 2015 #21 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Einsparungen Andere E Nuklear Gas Öl Kohle Biomasse

Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear

Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

~55% renewables by 2030

2015 #22 Nakicenovic 2015 #22 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Global Water Withdrawals no CCS, no Nuclear

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Source: Fricko et al, 2014

2015 #23 Nakicenovic 2015 #23 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway

2015 #24 Nakicenovic 2015 #24 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway

2015 #25 Nakicenovic 2015 #25 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Biomass Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil Gas

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Source: Fricko et al, 2014

Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway

2015 #26 Nakicenovic

Science for Transformation ●  Better integration across science communities

“Climate or development first” approach too narrow ● More integrated & holistic assessment of climate

change policy in the context of other priorities: – Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better

understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits –  “Nexus” approaches to reach multiple objectives

simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization ●  Challenges are huge:

– Different constraints and priorities across scales – Normative goals involved in policy prioritization

Source: Nakicenovic & Riahi, 2014

THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at