Integrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050 The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Interactive Science Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 10-12 March 2015 Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology
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Integrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050
The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Interactive Science Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 10-12 March 2015
Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology
Strategic objective of TWI2050 initiative
The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic and social development within planetary boundaries
2015 #3 Nakicenovic
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
2015 #4 Nakicenovic
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
2015 #5 Nakicenovic
B
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
2015 #6 Nakicenovic
B
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
“Safe Space”
2015 #7 Nakicenovic
The World in 2050 Ü How to secure global development within a safe
and just operating space
Ü Planetary boundaries: e.g. Food; Water; Energy; Biodiversity; Climate Change
Ü “Safe Space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives to integrated models
Ü Transformational and BAU scenarios based on existing literature e.g. SSPs, GEA, DDPP
Ü Multiple-benefits of transformational pathways toward the “safe space” compared to BAU
2015 #8 Nakicenovic
Possible Unified Analytical Approach
Ultimate Drivers
Knowledge and Understanding
Power Structure
Culture Values and Needs
Proximate Drivers
Population Economy Technology Governance
Source: Paul Raskin, 2002
Scenario Narratives
Integrated Models
2015 #9 Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
Pop
ulat
ion
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
2015 #10 Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World, UK, BRICs
UK
BRICs
Pop
ulat
ion
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #11 Nakicenovic
Primary Education+
Secondary Education+
Global Educational Attainment
Source: Lutz et al., 2007
Pop
ulat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #12 Nakicenovic
Participatory Governance
Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010
Participatory
Pop
ulat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #13 Nakicenovic
Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment
Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;
Participatory
Abolishment
1863 United States
of America
1906 China
1948 UN Declaration
of Human Rights
Pop
ulat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #14 Nakicenovic 2015 #14 Nakicenovic
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
2015 #15 Nakicenovic 2015 #15 Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
2015 #16 Nakicenovic 2015 #16 Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
Net-negative emissions
2015 #17 Nakicenovic 2015 #17 Nakicenovic
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Vision: Sustainable Future → Growing number of
actors of change: • green businesses • cities • civil society • science • IGOs (eg, GEF, UNIDO)
Sustainability Transformation “Doing More with Less” within (Planetary) Boundaries