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International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2
Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.
Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors
Notes:•Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW)•Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup
• Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints
• Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS
• Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies
• Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear
• Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Atkins for ETI following
competitive open procurement process
System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies (ANT)• Develop a high level functional requirement
specification for a “black box” power plant for– baseload electricity– heat to energise district heating systems, and– further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing
• Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors
• Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following
competitive open procurement process• Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to
determine attractiveness of such an SMR “black box” power plant to the UK low carbon energy system
Project data used to create ESME data file for SMRs:• CAPEX: Base case £4500/kW for N’th Of A Kind
– Uplift for CHP: £200/kWe• OPEX: £105/kWe (by 2050)• First Operations Date: Base Case 2030• Construction Period: 3yrs• Build Out Rate: (from first operations) 400MWe/yr for 10 years, then
1.2 GWe/yr• Regional site capacity: 21 GWe total distributed across England and Wales• Power downrate during CHP heat take off: 20%
• The ANT project has been independent of reactor vendors• the report has been peer reviewed• There are uncertainties regarding the future costs and timescales for UK SMR deployment
Abatement Cost• Energy system costs would be incurred even if no carbon targets• Abatement cost is additional cost for low-carbon solution to given set of demands
ESMEv3.4 Baseline (with District Heating available but without SMRs deployed)• Annual abatement cost by 2050 - £58.24 Bn/yr• Equivalent to 1.55% of GDP
Key messages from table below:• RHS – reduction in system cost where CHP SMRs energise District Heat networks• LHS – significantly higher system cost without District Heating • Scenario – UK SMR first plant starting operations in 2030 with CAPEX of £4500/kWe
Annual Cost Of Abatement in 2050 (£bn/year) and as % of GDP
Approach to decarbonising heat WITHOUT District Heating WITH District Heating
Abatement Cost/year £64.7 Bn £54.6 BnAbatement as % of GDP 1.72% 1.45%