Voter TurnoutVoter TurnoutPOLS 21: The American Political SystemPOLS 21: The American Political System
“A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national election.”
— Bill Vaughan
Voter Turnout in 2012Voter Turnout in 2012
In November 2012, In November 2012, 130 million votes130 million votes were cast for were cast for president. president.
Is that number high or lowIs that number high or low?
It depends on how It depends on how turnout is turnout is measuredmeasured……
How Should We Measure How Should We Measure Turnout?Turnout?
The The voting-age populationvoting-age population (VAP) includes non-citizens and (VAP) includes non-citizens and felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates provide the lowest turnout levels because they provide the lowest turnout levels because they underestimate actual turnout.underestimate actual turnout.
The The voting-eligible populationvoting-eligible population (VEP) starts with the voting- (VEP) starts with the voting-age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates.estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates.
The number of The number of registered votersregistered voters includes only those includes only those legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of voter turnout.voter turnout.
Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:
130 million votes cast
241 million voting age citizens= 54% voter turnoutVAP
VEP 130 million votes cast
222 million voting eligible citizens= 59% voter turnout
How Should We Measure How Should We Measure Turnout?Turnout?
REG 130 million votes cast
172 million registered voters= 76% voter turnout
If voter turnout is low, compared to what?
Compared to other countriesCompared to other countries
Compared to historic rates of voter Compared to historic rates of voter turnout in the United Statesturnout in the United States
* It
aly
Icela
nd
Austr
ia
* B
elg
ium
Neth
erlands
* A
ust
ralia
Denm
ark
Sw
eden
Port
ugal
Germ
any
* G
reece
Isra
el
Norw
ay
Fin
land
Spain
Irela
nd
United K
ingdom
Fra
nce
Luxem
bourg
Sw
itzerland
US
A
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percent of voting age population (VAP), all elections since 1945
Voter Turnout in the United States Voter Turnout in the United States Compared to Other CountriesCompared to Other Countries
Source: International IDEA, http://www.idea.int/vt/survey/
Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012Elections, 1828-2012
18
28
18
32
18
36
18
40
18
44
18
48
18
52
18
56
18
60
18
64
18
68
18
72
18
76
18
80
18
84
18
88
18
92
18
96
19
00
19
04
19
08
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)
Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012Elections, 1828-2012
18
28
18
32
18
36
18
40
18
44
18
48
18
52
18
56
18
60
18
64
18
68
18
72
18
76
18
80
18
84
18
88
18
92
18
96
19
00
19
04
19
08
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
50
60
70
80
Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)
The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the right to vote
The 19th Amendment
grants women the right to vote
Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012Elections, 1828-2012
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 201240
45
50
55
60
65
Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)
Does Low Voter Turnout Does Low Voter Turnout MatterMatter??
Smaller, more highly educated, less Smaller, more highly educated, less representative electorate?representative electorate?
Larger, less well educated, more Larger, less well educated, more representative electorate?representative electorate?
Should we prefer a:
Making It Making It TooToo Easy to Vote? Easy to Vote?Jeff Jacoby, a staff writer for the Boston Globe, wrote the following essay in July, 1996—
Universal suffrage? I’m for that. Voting is right, not a privilege? Absolutely. No unreasonable barriers to voter registration? I agree. Government workers should go out of their way to sign up welfare recipients to vote?
Hold it.
Welfare recipients are people who don’t work, don’t pay taxes and don’t support themselves. Of course there are exceptions, but as a group—let’s face it—they are among the least educated, least productive, least responsible adults in America. They’re also among the least likely to be interested in elections or to follow public debates. If in addition they don’t bother to vote, we ought to be grateful. Why would anyone want to coax them into registering?
…No one is disenfranchised in this country. Unlike the days of old, there are no poll taxes, literacy tests, gender barriers or property requirements to come between any citizen and the voting booth. If U.S. elections are marked by chronically low turnout, it is not because voters are kept away. They stay away. Some are apathetic, some are ignorant, some are simply self-centered. Why badger people to register? What would they bring to an election?… No welfare caseworker—no state employee, period—should have to spoonfeed voting rights to anyone, least of all people on the dole. If they can figure out how to get food stamps, they can figure out how to get registered. They choose not to? So be it. American democracy won’t suffer.
Increasing Voter TurnoutIncreasing Voter TurnoutOPTION #1:OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.
OPTION #2:OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.
OPTION #3: OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar policy preferences, so it makes little differencepolicy preferences, so it makes little difference
OPTION #4:OPTION #4: Do something! Do something!
Voting by mail Voting by mail Voting earlyVoting earlyInternet votingInternet votingElection day registrationElection day registration
How Does Motor-Voter Work?
1. Simultaneous application for driver’s license and voter registration
2. Mail application for voter registration
3. Application in person at certain government agencies, including public assistance offices and agencies that provided services to people with disabilities
Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 is designed to encourage voter registration and to remove discriminatory and unfair obstacles to voter registration.
As of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to register voters for federal elections in three specific ways, in addition to any other procedures they use currently for registering voters:
The Problem with Motor-VoterThe Problem with Motor-Voter
Voter Registration
Voter Turnout
Motivation and/or interest
in politics
Voter Turnout as a Political Voter Turnout as a Political StrategyStrategy
With narrow margins of
victory, and an electorate split
evenly down the middle,
political parties increasingly
battle over voter turnout.
In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of Florida by just 537 votes (0.01%)Florida by just 537 votes (0.01%)
In Oregon, the presidential election that In Oregon, the presidential election that year was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44%)year was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44%)
In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31%)In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31%)
In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22%)In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22%)
In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06%)In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06%)
Close Elections Mean Turnout Close Elections Mean Turnout MattersMatters
In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin by 11,384 votes (0.38%)by 11,384 votes (0.38%)
In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes (1.37%)(1.37%)
In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79%)In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79%)
In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67%)In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67%)
Close Elections Mean Turnout Close Elections Mean Turnout MattersMatters
Tight states in 2008Tight states in 2008: North Carolina, : North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, OhioIndiana, Florida, Ohio
Vote MobilizationVote MobilizationEfforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote” Efforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote” drives, or drives, or GOTVGOTV..
Vote SuppressionVote SuppressionBallot and machine shortages on Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in selected precincts.Election Day in selected precincts.
Delays in sending absentee ballots.Delays in sending absentee ballots.
Vote challenges.Vote challenges.
Disqualification of provisional Disqualification of provisional ballots.ballots.
Purges of voter registration lists Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter caging).(e.g., voter caging).
Misdirection of voters to polling Misdirection of voters to polling places.places.
Negative advertising designed to Negative advertising designed to undermine morale.undermine morale.