Voter Turnout POLS 21: The American Political System “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote.

Voter TurnoutVoter TurnoutPOLS 21: The American Political SystemPOLS 21: The American Political System

“A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national election.”

— Bill Vaughan

Voter Turnout in 2012Voter Turnout in 2012

In November 2012, In November 2012, 130 million votes130 million votes were cast for were cast for president. president.

Is that number high or lowIs that number high or low?

It depends on how It depends on how turnout is turnout is measuredmeasured……

How Should We Measure How Should We Measure Turnout?Turnout?

The The voting-age populationvoting-age population (VAP) includes non-citizens and (VAP) includes non-citizens and felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes expatriate citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP estimates provide the lowest turnout levels because they provide the lowest turnout levels because they underestimate actual turnout.underestimate actual turnout.

The The voting-eligible populationvoting-eligible population (VEP) starts with the voting- (VEP) starts with the voting-age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and age population, then subtracts disenfranchised felons and non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP non-citizens, and adds citizens from overseas. VEP estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates.estimates of voting turnout are higher than VAP estimates.

The number of The number of registered votersregistered voters includes only those includes only those legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate of voter turnout.voter turnout.

Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:

130 million votes cast

241 million voting age citizens= 54% voter turnoutVAP

VEP 130 million votes cast

222 million voting eligible citizens= 59% voter turnout

How Should We Measure How Should We Measure Turnout?Turnout?

REG 130 million votes cast

172 million registered voters= 76% voter turnout

If voter turnout is low, compared to what?

Compared to other countriesCompared to other countries

Compared to historic rates of voter Compared to historic rates of voter turnout in the United Statesturnout in the United States

* It

aly

Icela

nd

Austr

ia

* B

elg

ium

Neth

erlands

* A

ust

ralia

Denm

ark

Sw

eden

Port

ugal

Germ

any

* G

reece

Isra

el

Norw

ay

Fin

land

Spain

Irela

nd

United K

ingdom

Fra

nce

Luxem

bourg

Sw

itzerland

US

A

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent of voting age population (VAP), all elections since 1945

Voter Turnout in the United States Voter Turnout in the United States Compared to Other CountriesCompared to Other Countries

Source: International IDEA, http://www.idea.int/vt/survey/

Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012Elections, 1828-2012

18

28

18

32

18

36

18

40

18

44

18

48

18

52

18

56

18

60

18

64

18

68

18

72

18

76

18

80

18

84

18

88

18

92

18

96

19

00

19

04

19

08

19

12

19

16

19

20

19

24

19

28

19

32

19

36

19

40

19

44

19

48

19

52

19

56

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)

Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012Elections, 1828-2012

18

28

18

32

18

36

18

40

18

44

18

48

18

52

18

56

18

60

18

64

18

68

18

72

18

76

18

80

18

84

18

88

18

92

18

96

19

00

19

04

19

08

19

12

19

16

19

20

19

24

19

28

19

32

19

36

19

40

19

44

19

48

19

52

19

56

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

50

60

70

80

Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)

The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the right to vote

The 19th Amendment

grants women the right to vote

Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012Elections, 1828-2012

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 201240

45

50

55

60

65

Perc ent of v oting eligible population (VEP)

Does Low Voter Turnout Does Low Voter Turnout MatterMatter??

Smaller, more highly educated, less Smaller, more highly educated, less representative electorate?representative electorate?

Larger, less well educated, more Larger, less well educated, more representative electorate?representative electorate?

Should we prefer a:

Making It Making It TooToo Easy to Vote? Easy to Vote?Jeff Jacoby, a staff writer for the Boston Globe, wrote the following essay in July, 1996—

Universal suffrage? I’m for that. Voting is right, not a privilege? Absolutely. No unreasonable barriers to voter registration? I agree. Government workers should go out of their way to sign up welfare recipients to vote?

Hold it.

Welfare recipients are people who don’t work, don’t pay taxes and don’t support themselves. Of course there are exceptions, but as a group—let’s face it—they are among the least educated, least productive, least responsible adults in America. They’re also among the least likely to be interested in elections or to follow public debates. If in addition they don’t bother to vote, we ought to be grateful. Why would anyone want to coax them into registering?

…No one is disenfranchised in this country. Unlike the days of old, there are no poll taxes, literacy tests, gender barriers or property requirements to come between any citizen and the voting booth. If U.S. elections are marked by chronically low turnout, it is not because voters are kept away. They stay away. Some are apathetic, some are ignorant, some are simply self-centered. Why badger people to register? What would they bring to an election?… No welfare caseworker—no state employee, period—should have to spoonfeed voting rights to anyone, least of all people on the dole. If they can figure out how to get food stamps, they can figure out how to get registered. They choose not to? So be it. American democracy won’t suffer.

Increasing Voter TurnoutIncreasing Voter TurnoutOPTION #1:OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.

OPTION #2:OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.want uneducated, uninformed people voting anyway.

OPTION #3: OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have similar policy preferences, so it makes little differencepolicy preferences, so it makes little difference

OPTION #4:OPTION #4: Do something! Do something!

Voting by mail Voting by mail Voting earlyVoting earlyInternet votingInternet votingElection day registrationElection day registration

How Does Motor-Voter Work?

1. Simultaneous application for driver’s license and voter registration

2. Mail application for voter registration

3. Application in person at certain government agencies, including public assistance offices and agencies that provided services to people with disabilities

Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 is designed to encourage voter registration and to remove discriminatory and unfair obstacles to voter registration.

As of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to register voters for federal elections in three specific ways, in addition to any other procedures they use currently for registering voters:

The Problem with Motor-VoterThe Problem with Motor-Voter

Voter Registration

Voter Turnout

Motivation and/or interest

in politics

Voter Turnout as a Political Voter Turnout as a Political StrategyStrategy

With narrow margins of

victory, and an electorate split

evenly down the middle,

political parties increasingly

battle over voter turnout.

In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of Florida by just 537 votes (0.01%)Florida by just 537 votes (0.01%)

In Oregon, the presidential election that In Oregon, the presidential election that year was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44%)year was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44%)

In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31%)In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31%)

In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22%)In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22%)

In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06%)In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06%)

Close Elections Mean Turnout Close Elections Mean Turnout MattersMatters

In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin by 11,384 votes (0.38%)by 11,384 votes (0.38%)

In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes (1.37%)(1.37%)

In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79%)In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79%)

In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67%)In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67%)

Close Elections Mean Turnout Close Elections Mean Turnout MattersMatters

Tight states in 2008Tight states in 2008: North Carolina, : North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, OhioIndiana, Florida, Ohio

Vote MobilizationVote MobilizationEfforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote” Efforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote” drives, or drives, or GOTVGOTV..

Vote SuppressionVote SuppressionBallot and machine shortages on Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in selected precincts.Election Day in selected precincts.

Delays in sending absentee ballots.Delays in sending absentee ballots.

Vote challenges.Vote challenges.

Disqualification of provisional Disqualification of provisional ballots.ballots.

Purges of voter registration lists Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter caging).(e.g., voter caging).

Misdirection of voters to polling Misdirection of voters to polling places.places.

Negative advertising designed to Negative advertising designed to undermine morale.undermine morale.