Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013

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Independence referendum

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

30%

57%

14%

All

‘Yes’ Change

since May

+2

31%

59%

10%

Certain to vote

‘Yes’ Change

since May

0

Yes

No

Undecided

Yes

No

Undecided

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Referendum voting intention – certain to vote

Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

31%

59%

10%

Certain to vote

‘Yes’ Change

since May

0

Yes

No

Undecided

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Referendum voting intention – recent trend

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Yes No Undecided

59%

31%

10%

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Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’

Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 73% (659). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

35%

65%

All

34%

66%

Certain to vote

Yes

No

Yes

No

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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and

definitely decided how they will vote

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

33%

67%

All definitely decided and certain to vote

38%

62%

33%

67%

33%

67%

Yes No

All definitely decided

and certain to vote

(Feb-Sep)

Yes

No

No Change

since May

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Floating voters

Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th

September 2013

39%

61%

All giving a voting intention but may change their mind

35%

31%

34%

All undecided – inclined to vote

Yes

No

Yes

No

Undecided

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here Support for independence – long-term trend

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

de

pe

nd

ence

(%

)

Introduction of the poll tax

in Scotland Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minority

government

SNP form majority

government

Edinburgh

Agreement

signed

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here Voting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013

40%

54%

24%

64%

40%

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Men Women

% voting Yes

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here Voting intention by age group


Yes

No

29%

62%

37%

51% 12%

30%

61% 9%

30%

61% 9%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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42%

45%

22%

69%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

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14%

80% 6%

Voting intention by party support


Yes

No

68%

21%

16%

75% 9%

1% 98%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


SNP Lab Con Lib Dem

% voting Yes

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here Technical details

• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents

conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 9th – 15th September 2013

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013

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Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013