Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIAugust 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends

vote in General Elections = 772. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015

GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

Voting Intention

41%

36%

7%

4%

7%5%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

45%

34%

6%

4%

7%5%


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


22%

30%

48%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

41%

45%

14%

+4%swing from July 2016

+4%swing from July 2016

+20.5%swing from July 2016

+35 Net -33 Net -8 Net -4 Net

SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 41%

DISSATISFIED 19% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 45%

54%

19%

27% 25%

58%

17%

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – August’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

MAY CORBYN FARRON

54%

25%

22%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 (368 Con supporters)

Theresa May (satisfaction)

54%

19%

27%

August 2016 (All) August 2016 (Conservative supporters)

SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 19%

DON’T KNOW 27%

Net = +35

76%

4%

20%

SATISFIED 76%

DISSATISFIED 4%

DON’T KNOW 20%

Net = +72


25%

58%

17%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

SATISFIED 25%

DISSATISFIED 58%

DON’T KNOW 17%

Net = -33

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


39%

47%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 47%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = -8

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 301 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


22%

30%

48%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 48%

Net = -8

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


28%

22%

43%

6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun

-04

Dec-

04

Jun

-05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Ap

r-07

Oct

-07

May-0

8

No

v-0

8

May-0

9

No

v-0

9

May-1

0

Dec-

10

Jun

-11

Dec-

11

Jun

-12

Dec-

12

Jun

-13

Dec-

13

Jun

-14

Dec-

14

Jun

-15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

IMPROVE 28%

STAY THE SAME 22%

GET WORSE 43%

DON’T KNOW 6%

EOI = -15

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

August 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1997

Jun

1997

No

v 1

997

Ap

r 1998

Sep

1998

Feb

1999

Jul 1999

Dec

1999

May 2

000

Oct

2000

Mar

2001

Au

g 2

001

Jan

2002

Jun

2002

No

v 2

002

Ap

r 2003

Sep

2003

Feb

2004

Jul 2004

Dec

2004

May 2

005

Oct

2005

Mar

2006

Au

g 2

006

Jan

2007

Jun

2007

No

v 2

007

Ap

r 2008

Sep

2008

Feb

2009

Jul 2009

Dec

2009

May 2

010

Oct

2010

Mar

2011

Au

g 2

011

Jan

2012

Jun

2012

No

v 2

012

Ap

r 2013

Sep

2013

Feb

2014

Jul 2014

Dec

2014

May 2

015

Oct

2015

Mar

2016

Au

g 2

016

-15


AS YOU WILL KNOW, IN JUNE THE UNITED KINGDOM VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IN A REFERENDUM.

WOULD YOU SAY YOU FEEL MORE OR LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR YOUR OWN PERSONAL FINANCIAL

SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS THAN IF THE UK HAD VOTED TO REMAIN, OR HAS IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase:; 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016

Confidence in personal finances after EU referendum

13

8

13

11

5

10

13

9

14

13

3

11

44

26

42

28

30

34

12

25

12

20

27

19

15

29

15

22

34

23

3

4

4

6

4

C2DE

ABC1

55+

35-54

18-34

All

MUCH MORE

CONFIDENT

A LITTLE MORE

CONFIDENT NO DIFFERENT

A LITTLE LESS

CONFIDENT

MUCH LESS

CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

17

August 2016POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2016

News & Politics