POLITICAL MONITOR January 2013 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000
Nov 29, 2014
POLITICAL MONITOR January 2013
Contacts:
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000
Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -14
All giving a voting intention: 82%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
31%
45%
9%
7% 8%
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th -14th January 2013, all certain to vote = 628
All certain to vote: 58%
Conservative lead = -13
30%
43%
8%
9% 10%
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb-03 A
pr-03 Jun-03 A
ug-03 O
ct-03 D
ec-03 Feb-04 A
pr-04 Jun-04 A
ug-04 O
ct-04 D
ec-04 Feb-05 A
pr-05 Jun-05 A
ug-05 O
ct-05 D
ec-05 Feb-06 A
pr-06 Jun-06 A
ug-06 O
ct-06 D
ec-06 Feb-07 A
pr-07 Jun-07 A
ug-07 O
ct-07 D
ec-07 Feb-08 A
pr-08 Jun-08 A
ug-08 O
ct-08 D
ec-08 Feb-09 A
pr-09 Jun-09 A
ug-09 O
ct-09 D
ec-09 Feb-10 A
pr-10 Jun-10 A
ug-10 O
ct-10 D
ec-10 Feb-11 A
pr-11 Jun-11 A
ug-11 O
ct-11 D
ec-11 Feb-12 A
pr-12 Jun-12 A
ug-12 O
ct-12 D
ec-12
43%
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
8%
30%
2010 General Election
Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions January ‘03 – January ‘13 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
6
59
61
48
64
34
28
36
27
Net satisfaction
Net change from Dec’
2012
-25 -6
-33 n/c
-12 -9
-37 -4
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08 Feb-08 M
ar-08 A
pr-08 M
ay-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 A
ug-08 S
ep-08 O
ct-08 N
ov-08 D
ec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 M
ar-09 A
pr-09 M
ay-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 A
ug-09 S
ep-09 O
ct-09 N
ov-09 D
ec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 M
ar-10 A
pr-10 M
ay-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 A
ug-10 S
ep-10 O
ct-10 N
ov-10 D
ec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 M
ar-11 A
pr-11 M
ay-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 A
ug-11 S
ep-11 O
ct-11 N
ov-11 D
ec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 M
ar-12 A
pr-12 M
ay-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 A
ug-12 S
ep-12 O
ct-12 N
ov-12 D
ec-12 Jan-13
28%
% s
atis
fied
Cameron
Clegg
Campbell
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
34% Miliband
36%
Brown
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘13
8
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
January 2006 – January 2013 January 2013
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
34%
59%
6%
Net = -25
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
75%
20%
5% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +55 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
January 2006 – January 2013 January 2013
11
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2013) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2012)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
12 Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013
10
20
30
40
50
60 Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – January 2013 January 2013
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
36%
48%
16%
Net = -12
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 368 Labour supporters 18+, 12th-14th January 2013
Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2013
Net = +18
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – January 2013
53% 35%
11%
14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2008 – January 2013 January 2013
28%
61%
11%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied Net = -33
15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
*Please note the small base size
Base: 82 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 12th -14th January 2013
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2013
42%
49%
9% Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -7
Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters*) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2008 – January 2013
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Economic Optimism
17 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013
Improve
Stay the same Get worse 21%
33%
43%
3% Improve
Don’t know
Get worse Stay the same
January 2013
EOI = -22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
04
Aug
-04
Mar
-05
Oct
-05
May
-06
Dec
-06
Jul-0
7
Feb-
08
Sep
-08
Apr
-09
Nov
-09
Jun-
10
Jan-
11
Aug
-11
Mar
-12
Oct
-12
18
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Feb-
97
May
-97
Aug
-97
Nov
-97
Feb-
98
May
-98
Aug
-98
Nov
-98
Feb-
99
May
-99
Aug
-99
Nov
-99
Feb-
00
May
-00
Aug
-00
Nov
-00
Feb-
01
May
-01
Aug
-01
Nov
-01
Feb-
02
May
-02
Aug
-02
Nov
-02
Feb-
03
May
-03
Aug
-03
Nov
-03
Feb-
04
May
-04
Aug
-04
Nov
-04
Feb-
05
May
-05
Aug
-05
Nov
-05
Feb-
06
May
-06
Aug
-06
Nov
-06
Feb-
07
May
-07
Aug
-07
Nov
-07
Feb-
08
May
-08
Aug
-08
Nov
-08
Feb-
09
May
-09
Aug
-09
Nov
-09
Feb-
10
May
-10
Aug
-10
Nov
-10
Feb-
11
May
-11
Aug
-11
Nov
-11
Feb-
12
May
-12
Aug
-12
Nov
-12
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46 -56 -48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index In
dex
(get
bet
ter m
inus
get
wor
se)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-6
-22