POLITICAL MONITOR February 2014 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: February 2014
Aug 23, 2014
The February Ipsos MORI Political Monitor records the public’s economic optimism at its highest since May 1997 when Tony Blair and New Labour had just moved into Downing Street. Half (50%) of Britons believe the state of the economy will improve in the next year. One in four (24%) think the economy will get worse, giving an Economic Optimism Index score (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of +26 the highest since 1997. Full poll: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3339/Economic-optimism-at-highest-since-1997-as-Cameron-opens-up-lead-over-Miliband-on-dealing-with-the-economy-and-unemployment.aspx
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -8
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
31%
39%
11%
10%
9%
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014, all certain to vote = 592
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 56%
Conservative lead = -7
31%
38%
12%
10%
9%
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Aug
-03
Nov-0
3
Feb-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Aug
-04
No
v-0
4
Feb-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Aug
-05
Nov-0
5
Feb-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Aug
-06
Nov-0
6
Fe
b-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Aug
-07
Nov-0
7
Feb-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Aug
-08
Nov-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Aug
-09
Nov-0
9
Feb-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Aug
-10
Nov-1
0
Feb-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Aug
-11
Nov-1
1
Feb-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Aug
-12
Nov-1
2
Feb-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Aug
-13
Nov-1
3
Feb-1
4
38%
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
12%
31%
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions August ‘03 – February ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
10%
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
6
55
64
52
41
59
37
25
31
31
32
Net satisfaction
Swing from January
2014
-18 -2
-39 -5.5
-21 +0.5
-10 -4
-27 +0.5
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Mar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Jan-0
9F
eb
-09
Ma
r-09
Ap
r-09
Ma
y-0
9Ju
n-0
9Ju
l-09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Ma
r-10
Ap
r-10
Ma
y-1
0Ju
n-1
0Ju
l-10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-1
1F
eb
-11
Ma
r-11
Ap
r-11
Ma
y-1
1Ju
n-1
1Ju
l-11
Au
g-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-1
2F
eb-1
2M
ar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-1
2Jul-1
2A
ug
-12
Se
p-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-1
3F
eb
-13
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb
-14
25%
% s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
Campbell
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
37%
Miliband 31%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – February ‘14
Farage
31%
8
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
February 2006 – February 2014 February 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -18
37%
55%
8%
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 266 Conservative supporters 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
76%
20%
5% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +56 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
February 2006 – February 2014 February 2014
11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – February 2014 February 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
31%
52%
16%
Net = -21
13
52%
35%
13%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 308 Labour supporters 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
February 2014
Net = +17
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – February 2014
14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
February 2008 – February 2014 February 2014
25%
64%
11%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -39
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 93 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
February 2014
47%
46%
7% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +1
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
February 2008 – February 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
16
31%
41%
29%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 84 UKIP supporters, 1st -3rd February 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
All
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
74%
12%
14%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -10 Net = +62
The economy
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Aug
-04
No
v-0
4F
eb-0
5M
ay-0
5A
ug
-05
Nov-0
5F
eb-0
6M
ay-0
6A
ug
-06
Nov-0
6F
eb-0
7M
ay-0
7A
ug
-07
Nov-0
7F
eb-0
8M
ay-0
8A
ug
-08
Nov-0
8F
eb-0
9M
ay-0
9A
ug
-09
Nov-0
9F
eb-1
0M
ay-1
0A
ug
-10
No
v-1
0F
eb-1
1M
ay-1
1A
ug
-11
Nov-1
1F
eb-1
2M
ay-1
2A
ug
-12
Nov-1
2F
eb-1
3M
ay-1
3A
ug
-13
Nov-1
3F
eb-1
4
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Improve
Stay the same Get worse Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
February 2014
EOI = +26
50%
23%
24%
3%
19
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Ma
y-9
7A
ug
-97
No
v-9
7F
eb
-98
Ma
y-9
8A
ug
-98
No
v-9
8F
eb
-99
Ma
y-9
9A
ug
-99
No
v-9
9F
eb
-00
Ma
y-0
0A
ug
-00
No
v-0
0F
eb
-01
Ma
y-0
1A
ug
-01
No
v-0
1F
eb
-02
Ma
y-0
2A
ug
-02
No
v-0
2F
eb
-03
Ma
y-0
3A
ug
-03
No
v-0
3F
eb
-04
Ma
y-0
4A
ug
-04
No
v-0
4F
eb
-05
Ma
y-0
5A
ug
-05
No
v-0
5F
eb
-06
Ma
y-0
6A
ug
-06
No
v-0
6F
eb
-07
Ma
y-0
7A
ug-0
7N
ov-0
7F
eb
-08
Ma
y-0
8A
ug-0
8N
ov-0
8F
eb
-09
Ma
y-0
9A
ug-0
9N
ov-0
9F
eb
-10
Ma
y-1
0A
ug-1
0N
ov-1
0F
eb
-11
Ma
y-1
1A
ug
-11
No
v-1
1F
eb
-12
Ma
y-1
2A
ug
-12
No
v-1
2F
eb
-13
Ma
y-1
3A
ug
-13
No
v-1
3F
eb
-14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56 -48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Ind
ex
(g
et
be
tte
r m
inu
s g
et
wo
rse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+26
Leaders
21 Leaders on key issues- trend
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
20%
4%
3%
8%
6%
5%
19%
28%
20%
23%
33%
42%
…deal with immigration
…deal with reducing unemployment
…deal with managing the economy
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Miliband Cameron Clegg Farage Change since May 2013
+5
-3
n/c
-2
+4
-3
n/c
-3
-5
+2
+2
-5
22 Leaders on key issues
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8%
3%
6%
7%
12%
10%
22%
28%
29%
29%
21%
21%
...handle disagreements withinhis party
...look after the interests ofwomen
...deal with regulation for banksand bankers' bonuses
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Miliband Cameron Clegg Farage
Higher rate of tax
24
Half of respondents asked
Higher rate of income tax
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: split sample question, 521 and 491 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
26%
24%
28%
27%
40%
41%
40p in the pound
45p in the pound
50p in the pound
As you may know, in 2012 the present government reduced the top rate of income tax from 50p in the pound to 45p in the pound, for those people earning over £150,000 a year. Some people argue that high tax rates are not very effective in raising money, and that they harm the economy by putting people off doing business in Britain but others argue that it is unfair to give tax cuts to rich people, and that a higher tax rate is a fairer way of cutting the deficit. Which of the following, if any, do you think is the right rate of income tax that should be charged on income over £150,000 a year?
Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls’ policy of 50p in the
pound
Chancellor George Osborne’s policy of 45p in the
pound
London Mayor Boris Johnson’s policy of 40p in
the pound
Half of respondents asked
Related Documents
