EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Spread ofEnergy Innovations in Cities
Nick McCullen
Research Centre for Energy and the Design of Environments (EDEn)Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering
University of Bath
LUCAS Seminar, Nottingham, 10th June 2015
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Table of Contents
Cities and Energy Use
Complex Systems and Networks
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Using Real-World Data to Inform the Models
Comparing Intervention Scenarios
Cities and Energy
Future Energy Decision Making for Cities:Can Complexity Science Rise to the Challenge?
With: Catherine Bale, Timothy Foxon, William Gale, Alastair Rucklidge. (Leeds)
I Cities are expanding:I Over 50% people living in cities,I by 2050: 60%–80%
I Buildings consume 20%–40% of total energy.I Local authorities can influence residents/businesses to reduce
energy demand.I Decision-making tools are needed to support their potential
contribution to energy and climate change targets‡.
‡: Bale, et al. “Strategic energy planning within local authorities in the UK:
A study of the city of Leeds.” Energy Policy (2012)c©Jasvipul Chawla
1 / 33
Cities and Energy
Future Energy Decision Making for Cities:Can Complexity Science Rise to the Challenge?
With: Catherine Bale, Timothy Foxon, William Gale, Alastair Rucklidge. (Leeds)
I Cities are expanding:I Over 50% people living in cities,I by 2050: 60%–80%
I Buildings consume 20%–40% of total energy.I Local authorities can influence residents/businesses to reduce
energy demand.I Decision-making tools are needed to support their potential
contribution to energy and climate change targets‡.
‡: Bale, et al. “Strategic energy planning within local authorities in the UK:
A study of the city of Leeds.” Energy Policy (2012)c©Jasvipul Chawla
1 / 33
Cities and Energy
Future Energy Decision Making for Cities:Can Complexity Science Rise to the Challenge?
With: Catherine Bale, Timothy Foxon, William Gale, Alastair Rucklidge. (Leeds)
I Cities are expanding:I Over 50% people living in cities,I by 2050: 60%–80%
I Buildings consume 20%–40% of total energy.
I Local authorities can influence residents/businesses to reduceenergy demand.
I Decision-making tools are needed to support their potentialcontribution to energy and climate change targets‡.
‡: Bale, et al. “Strategic energy planning within local authorities in the UK:
A study of the city of Leeds.” Energy Policy (2012)c©Jasvipul Chawla
1 / 33
Cities and Energy
Future Energy Decision Making for Cities:Can Complexity Science Rise to the Challenge?
With: Catherine Bale, Timothy Foxon, William Gale, Alastair Rucklidge. (Leeds)
I Cities are expanding:I Over 50% people living in cities,I by 2050: 60%–80%
I Buildings consume 20%–40% of total energy.I Local authorities can influence residents/businesses to reduce
energy demand.I Decision-making tools are needed to support their potential
contribution to energy and climate change targets‡.
‡: Bale, et al. “Strategic energy planning within local authorities in the UK:
A study of the city of Leeds.” Energy Policy (2012)c©Jasvipul Chawla
1 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Domestic energy use
I Energy use depends on both technology and behaviour:
I use of installed tech &decisions to install.
I Roll-out of energy efficiencytechnologies is a problem.
c©BRE
I can we create models of energy innovation uptake?
3 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Domestic energy use
I Energy use depends on both technology and behaviour:
I use of installed tech &decisions to install.
I Roll-out of energy efficiencytechnologies is a problem.
c©BRE
I can we create models of energy innovation uptake?
3 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Domestic energy use
I Energy use depends on both technology and behaviour:
I use of installed tech &decisions to install.
I Roll-out of energy efficiencytechnologies is a problem.
c©BRE
I can we create models of energy innovation uptake?
3 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Domestic energy use
I Energy use depends on both technology and behaviour:
I use of installed tech &decisions to install.
I Roll-out of energy efficiencytechnologies is a problem.
c©BRE
I can we create models of energy innovation uptake?
3 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Why is energy different?
I Model of uptake of technology.I E.g. Smart-phones:
I visible and socially desirable,I mediated by social contacts between individuals.
I Energy technologies:I sometimes visible (solar panels).
I can be hidden (e.g. loft insulation),I decisions based on individual benefit.
http://www.greendayrenewables.com http://www.homeinsulationgrants.com
4 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Why is energy different?
I Model of uptake of technology.I E.g. Smart-phones:
I visible and socially desirable,I mediated by social contacts between individuals.
I Energy technologies:I sometimes visible (solar panels).
I can be hidden (e.g. loft insulation),I decisions based on individual benefit.
http://www.greendayrenewables.com
http://www.homeinsulationgrants.com
4 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Cities and Energy
Why is energy different?
I Model of uptake of technology.I E.g. Smart-phones:
I visible and socially desirable,I mediated by social contacts between individuals.
I Energy technologies:I sometimes visible (solar panels).I can be hidden (e.g. loft insulation),I decisions based on individual benefit.
http://www.greendayrenewables.com http://www.homeinsulationgrants.com
4 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Complex systems
I System of many interacting components,
I interactions are important,
I dynamics governed by rules or equationsof interaction,
I behaviour of whole system emergesnaturally through interactions:
I “emergent properties”.
5 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Complex systems
I System of many interacting components,
I interactions are important,
I dynamics governed by rules or equationsof interaction,
I behaviour of whole system emergesnaturally through interactions:
I “emergent properties”.
5 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Complex systems
I System of many interacting components,
I interactions are important,
I dynamics governed by rules or equationsof interaction,
I behaviour of whole system emergesnaturally through interactions:
I “emergent properties”.
5 / 33
AAbbey Road F3Abbey Wood G4Acton Central B3Acton Main Line B3Acton Town B3Addington Village E6Addiscombe E6Albany Park G5Aldgate E3Aldgate East E3Alexandra Palace E1All Saints F3Alperton B2Amersham A1Ampere Way D5Anerley E5Angel E3Angel Road F1Archway D2Arena E5Arnos Grove E1Arsenal E2Avenue Road F5
BBaker Street C3Balham C5Bank E3Banstead C6Barbican D3Barking G3Barkingside G2Barnehurst H4Barnes C4Barnes Bridge B4Barons Court C3Battersea Park C4Bayswater C3Beckenham Hill F5Beckenham Junction F5Beckenham Road F5Beckton G4Beckton Park G3Becontree H2Beddington Lane D5Belgrave Walk C5Bellingham F5Belmont C6Belsize Park D2Belvedere G4Bermondsey E4Berrylands B5Bethnal Green (LU) E3Bethnal Green
(Greater Anglia) E3Bexley G5Bexleyheath G4Bickley G5Birkbeck E5Blackfriars D3Blackheath F4Blackhorse Lane E6Blackhorse Road F2Blackwall F3Bond Street C3Borough D4Boston Manor A3Bounds Green E1Bow Church F3Bowes Park E1Bow Road F3Brent Cross C2Brentford B4Brentwood H1Brimsdown F1Brixton D4Brockley E4Bromley-by-Bow F3Bromley North F5Bromley South F5Brondesbury C2Brondesbury Park C2Broxbourne F1Bruce Grove F2Buckhurst Hill G1Burnt Oak C1Bushey B1Bush Hill Park F1
CCaledonian Road E2Caledonian Road
& Barnsbury E2Cambridge Heath E2Camden Road D2Camden Town D2Canada Water E4Canary Wharf F4Canning Town F3Cannon Street E3Canonbury E2Canons Park C1Carpenders Park B1Carshalton D6Carshalton Beeches D6Castle Bar Park A3Caterham E6Catford F5Catford Bridge F5Centrale D6Chadwell Heath H2Chafford Hundred H2Chalfont & Latimer A1Chalk Farm D2Chancery Lane D3Charing Cross D3Charlton G4Cheam C6
C continuedChelsfield G5Chesham A1Cheshunt F1Chessington North B6Chessington South B6Chigwell G1Chingford F1Chipstead D6Chislehurst G5Chiswick B4Chiswick Park B3Chorleywood A1Church Street D6City Thameslink D3Clapham Common D4Clapham High Street D4Clapham Junction C4Clapham North D4Clapham South D4Clapton F2Clock House F5Cockfosters E1Colindale C1Colliers Wood C5Coombe Lane E6Coulsdon South D6Coulsdon Town D6Covent Garden D3Crayford H5Crews Hill E1Cricklewood C2Crofton Park F5Crossharbour F4Crouch Hill E2Croxley A1Crystal Palace E5Custom House for
ExCeL G3Cutty Sark for
Maritime Greenwich F4Cyprus G3
DDagenham Dock H3Dagenham East H2Dagenham Heathway H2Dalston Junction E2Dalston Kingsland E2Debden G1Denmark Hill D4Deptford F4Deptford Bridge F4Devons Road F3Dollis Hill C2Drayton Green A3Drayton Park E2Dundonald Road C5
EEaling Broadway B3Ealing Common B3Earl’s Court C3Earlsfield C4East Acton B3Eastcote B2East Croydon E6East Dulwich D4East Finchley D1East Ham G3East India F3East Putney C4Eden Park F5Edgware C1Edgware Road C3Edmonton Green F1Elephant & Castle D4Elmers End F5Elm Park H2Elmstead Woods G5Elstree &
Borehamwood C1Eltham G4Elverson Road F4Embankment D3Emerson Park H2Emirates Greenwich
Peninsula F4Emirates Royal Docks G3Enfield Chase E1Enfield Lock F1Enfield Town F1Epping G1Epsom Downs C6Erith H4Essex Road E3Euston D3Euston Square D3Ewell East C6Ewell West C6
FFairlop G2Falconwood G4Farringdon D3Feltham A5Fenchurch Street E3Fieldway F6Finchley Central D1Finchley Road C2Finchley Road & Frognal C2Finsbury Park E2Forest Gate G2Forest Hill E5Fulham Broadway C4Fulwell A5
GGallions Reach G3Gants Hill G2George Street E6Gidea Park H2
G continuedGipsy Hill D5Gloucester Road C3Golders Green D2Goldhawk Road B3Goodge Street D3Goodmayes G2Gordon Hill E1Gospel Oak D2Grange Hill G1Grange Park E1Gravel Hill E6Grays H3Great Portland Street D3Greenford A2Green Park C3Greenwich F4Grove Park F5Gunnersbury B4
HHackbridge D6Hackney Central F2Hackney Downs F2Hackney Wick F2Hadley Wood E1Haggerston E3Hainault G1Hammersmith B3Hampstead D2Hampstead Heath D2Hampton A5Hampton Court A5Hampton Wick B5Hanger Lane B3Hanwell A3Harlesden B2Harold Wood H2Harringay E2Harringay Green Lanes E2Harrington Road E5Harrow & Wealdstone B1Harrow-on-the-Hill B2Hatch End B1Hatton Cross A4Haydons Road C5Hayes E6Hayes & Harlington A3Headstone Lane B1Heathrow
Terminals 1, 2, 3 A4Heathrow Terminal 4 A4Heathrow Terminal 5 A4Hendon C2Hendon Central C2Herne Hill D5Heron Quays F4Highams Park F1High Barnet D1Highbury & Islington E2Highgate D2High Street Kensington C3Hillingdon A1Hither Green F5Holborn D3Holland Park C3Holloway Road E2Homerton F2Honor Oak Park E5Hornchurch H2Hornsey E2Hounslow A4Hounslow Central A4Hounslow East A4Hounslow West A4Hoxton E3Hyde Park Corner C3
IIckenham A1Ilford G2Imperial Wharf C4Island Gardens F4Isleworth A4
KKenley E6Kennington D4Kensal Green B2Kensal Rise C2Kensington (Olympia) C3Kent House E5Kentish Town D2Kentish Town West D2Kenton B1Kew Bridge B4Kew Gardens B4Kidbrooke F4Kilburn C2Kilburn High Road C2Kilburn Park C2King George V G4King Henry’s Drive F6King’s Cross D3Kingsbury C1Kingston B5Kingswood D6Knightsbridge C3Knockholt G5
LLadbroke Grove C3Ladywell F5Lambeth North D4Lancaster Gate C3Langdon Park F3Latimer Road B3Lebanon Road E6Lee F5Leicester Square D3Lewisham F4
L continuedLeyton F2Leyton Midland Road F2Leytonstone G2Leytonstone High Road G2Limehouse F3Liverpool Street E3Lloyd Park E6London Bridge D4London City Airport G4London Fields F2Loughborough Junction D4Loughton G1Lower Sydenham F5
MMaida Vale C2Malden Manor B5Manor House E2
M continuedManor Park G2Mansion House D3Marble Arch C3Maryland F2Marylebone C3Maze Hill F4Merton Park C5Mile End F3Mill Hill Broadway C1Mill Hill East D1Mitcham C5Mitcham Eastfields D5Mitcham Junction C5Monument E3Moor Park A1Moorgate E3Morden C5Morden Road C5
M continuedMorden South C5Mornington Crescent D2Mortlake B4Motspur Park B5Mottingham G5Mudchute F4
NNeasden C2New Addington F6New Barnet E1New Beckenham F5Newbury Park G2New Cross E4New Cross Gate E4New Eltham G5New Malden B5New Southgate E1Norbiton B5
N continuedNorbury D5North Acton B3North Dulwich D5North Ealing B3Northfields A3North Greenwich F4North Harrow B1Northolt A2Northolt Park A2North Sheen B4Northumberland Park F1North Wembley B2Northwick Park B2Northwood B1Northwood Hills B1Norwood Junction E5Notting Hill Gate C3Nunhead E4
OOakleigh Park E1Oakwood E1Ockendon H2Old Street E3Orpington G5Osterley A4Oval D4Oxford Circus D3
PPaddington C3Palmers Green E1Park Royal B3Parsons Green C4Peckham Rye E4Penge East E5Penge West E5Perivale A2Petts Wood G5
P continuedPhipps Bridge C5Piccadilly Circus D3Pimlico C4Pinner B1Plaistow F3Plumstead G4Ponders End F1Pontoon Dock G3Poplar F3Preston Road C2Prince Regent G3Pudding Mill Lane F3Purfleet H3Purley E6Purley Oaks E6Putney C4Putney Bridge C4
QQueensbury C1Queen’s Park B2Queens Road Peckham E4Queenstown Road
(Battersea) C4Queensway C3
RRainham H3Ravensbourne F5Ravenscourt Park B3Rayners Lane B2Raynes Park B5Rectory Road F2Redbridge G2Reedham D6Reeves Corner D6Regent’s Park D3
R continuedRichmond B4Rickmansworth A1Riddlesdown E6Roding Valley G1Romford H2Rotherhithe E4Royal Albert G3Royal Oak C3Royal Victoria G3Ruislip A1Ruislip Gardens A2Ruislip Manor A1Russell Square D3
SSt. Helier C6St. James Street F2St. James’s Park C3
S continuedSt. Johns F4St. John’s Wood C2St. Margarets B4St. Mary Cray G5St. Pancras International D2St. Paul’s D3Sanderstead E6Sandilands E6Selhurst D5Seven Kings G2Seven Sisters F2Shadwell E3Shenfield H1Shepherd’s Bush C3Shepherd’s Bush Market B3Shoreditch High Street E3Shortlands F5
S continuedSidcup G5Silver Street F1Slade Green H4Sloane Square C3Snaresbrook G2South Acton B3Southall A3South Bermondsey E4Southbury F1South Croydon E6South Ealing B3Southfields C4South Greenford A2South Hampstead C2South Harrow B2Southgate E1South Kensington C3South Kenton B2
S continuedSouth Merton C5South Quay F4South Ruislip A2South Tottenham F2Southwark D4South Wimbledon C5South Woodford G2Stamford Brook B3Stamford Hill F2Stanmore C1Star Lane F3Stepney Green E3Stockwell D4Stoke Newington F2Stonebridge Park B2Stoneleigh C6Stratford F2Stratford High Street F3
S continuedStratford International F2Strawberry Hill A5Streatham D5Streatham Common D5Streatham Hill D5Sudbury & Harrow Road B2Sudbury Hill B2Sudbury Hill Harrow B2Sudbury Town B2Sundridge Park F5Surbiton B5Surrey Quays E4Sutton C6Sutton Common C6Swiss Cottage C2Sydenham E5Sydenham Hill E5Syon Lane A4
TTadworth D6Tattenham Corner D6Teddington A5Temple D3Thames Ditton B5Theobalds Grove F1Therapia Lane D5Theydon Bois G1Thornton Heath D5Tolworth B5Tooting C5Tooting Bec C5Tooting Broadway C5Tottenham Court Road D3Tottenham Hale F2Totteridge &
Whetstone D1
T continuedTower Gateway E3Tower Hill E3Tufnell Park D2Tulse Hill D5Turkey Street F1Turnham Green B3Turnpike Lane E2Twickenham A5
UUpminster H2Upminster Bridge H2Upney G3Upper Holloway D2Upper Warlingham E6Upton Park G3Uxbridge A1
VVauxhall C4Victoria C3
WWaddon D6Waddon Marsh D5Wallington D6Waltham Cross F1Walthamstow Central F2Walthamstow
Queen’s Road F2Wandle Park D5Wandsworth Common C4Wandsworth Road C4Wandsworth Town C4Wanstead G2Wanstead Park G2Wapping E3Warren Street D3
W continuedWarwick Avenue C3Waterloo D4Watford A1Watford High Street B1Watford Junction B1Welling G4Wellesley Road E6Wembley Park C2Wembley Stadium C2West Acton B3Wembley Central B2Westbourne Park C3West Brompton C4Westcombe Park F4West Croydon D6West Drayton A3West Dulwich E5West Ealing B3
W continuedWestferry F3West Finchley D1West Ham F3West Hampstead C2West Harrow B2West India Quay F3Westminster D3West Norwood D5West Ruislip A1West Kensington C3West Silvertown G3West Sutton C6West Wickham E6White City B3Whitechapel E3White Hart Lane F1Whitton A5Whyteleafe E6
W continuedWhyteleafe South E6Willesden Green C2Willesden Junction B2Wimbledon C5Wimbledon Chase C5Wimbledon Park C4Winchmore Hill E1Woodford G1Woodgrange Park G3Wood Green E1Wood Lane B3Woodmansterne D6Woodside E5Woodside Park D1Wood Street F1Woolwich Arsenal G4Woolwich Dockyard G4Worcester Park C6
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A B C D E F G H
A B C D E F G H
ChigwellRodingValley
Grange Hill
Enfield Lock
Waltham Cross †
Cheshunt †
Broxbourne †Crews Hill
Gordon Hill
Enfield Chase
Grange Park
Winchmore Hill
Palmers Green
Bowes Park
Southbury
† TheobaldsGrove
TurkeyStreet
Brimsdown
Ponders End
Amersham
Chalfont& Latimer
Rayners Lane
Greenford
PiccadillyCircus
Brixton
Herne Hill
TottenhamCourt Road
BowRoad
BowChurch
WoodLane
Harrow-on-the-Hill
EalingBroadway
NorthwickPark
NortholtPark
WembleyStadium
BrondesburyPark
EdgwareRoad
Plaistow East HamUptonPark
EmersonPark
PrestonRoad Wembley Park
Farringdon
Baker Street
Gospel Oak
NottingHill Gate
High StreetKensington
GoodgeStreet
Chorleywood
Rickmansworth
South Harrow
Hanger Lane
West Ruislip
Bushey
Harrow & Wealdstone
Wembley Central
Watford Junction
South Ruislip
HeathrowTerminals
1, 2, 3
Sudbury Hill
EalingCommon
Balham
Clapham High Street
Wimbledon
Clapham North
Hammersmith
Watford
Croxley
Moor Park
RuislipManor
Eastcote
Perivale
Ruislip
Northwood
NorthwoodHills
Pinner
North Harrow
Kilburn ParkMaida Vale
WarwickAvenue
WarrenStreet
Hillingdon
Uxbridge Ickenham
RuislipGardens
Northolt
Castle Bar Park
South Greenford
Drayton Green
West Harrow
Kensal Rise
Upper Holloway
CaledonianRoad &
Barnsbury
SouthTottenham
BethnalGreen
ShoreditchHigh Street
Hoxton
Rotherhithe
Wapping
Surrey Quays
Haggerston
KilburnHigh Road
SouthHampstead
Brondesbury
Sudbury &Harrow Road
Kensal GreenFinchley Road
Kentish TownWest Hampstead
Queen’s Park
EustonSquare Barbican
Sudbury Town
Alperton
Park Royal
North Ealing
Goldhawk Road
Watford High Street
Carpenders Park
Hatch End
Headstone Lane Stanmore
Canons Park
Queensbury
Kingsbury
High Barnet
Totteridge & Whetstone
Woodside Park
West Finchley
Cockfosters
Oakwood
Southgate
Arnos Grove
BoundsGreen
Finchley Central
East Finchley
Highgate
Archway
Tufnell Park
Camden Town
Alexandra Palace
HornseyBruce Grove
White Hart Lane
Silver Street
Edmonton Green
Bush HillPark
EnfieldTown
Harringay
Hadley Wood
New Barnet
Oakleigh Park
Hendon
Kenton
South Kenton
North Wembley
Stonebridge Park
Harlesden
Parsons Green
Pimlico
Putney Bridge
Battersea Park
East Putney
Southfields
Wimbledon Park
Shepherd’sBush Market
ChiswickPark
TurnhamGreen
StamfordBrook
Whitton
Kingston
Mortlake
HaydonsRoad
Putney WandsworthTown
RavenscourtPark
WestKensington
St. James’sPark
Southwark Canada Water
Bermondsey
MazeHill
Charlton
SouthEaling
Feltham
NorthSheen Barnes
Chiswick
Barnes Bridge
Ewell West
WandsworthCommon
WandsworthRoad
Selhurst
Norbury
KewBridge
FulwellHampton NorbitonHamptonWick
Teddington
CarshaltonBeeches
Eltham
New Eltham
Sidcup Bexley
TherapiaLane
AmpereWay
WestNorwood
Centrale
ChurchStreet
Sandilands
AvenueRoad
Shortlands BromleySouth
BeckenhamRoad
Wellesley Road
Waddon
Wallington
BeddingtonLane
WaddonMarsh
StreathamHill Gipsy Hill
WestDulwich
SydenhamHill
ReevesCorner
LebanonRoadGeorge Street
Denmark Hill Nunhead
ThamesDitton
HamptonCourt
SloaneSquare
Boston Manor
Osterley
Northfields
HounslowEast
HounslowCentral
HounslowWest
HattonCross
Isleworth
HeathrowTerminal 4
Twickenham
St. Margarets
Syon Lane
Brentford
Hyde Park Corner
Temple
Oval
Knightsbridge
HeathrowTerminal
5
SouthallHayes &
HarlingtonWest
DraytonWestEalingHanwell
ActonMainLine
ActonTown
ActonCentral
EastActon
Queensway MarbleArch
BondStreet
AldgateEast
Green Park
Blackfriars
OxfordCircus
Canary Wharf
Holborn
SouthActon
ClaphamCommon
Kennington
Borough
Clapham South East Dulwich
Queens Road Peckham
North DulwichTootingBec
TootingBroadway
Colliers Wood
WestActon
NorthActon
HollandPark
LancasterGate
BaronsCourt
GloucesterRoad
ChanceryLane
MansionHouse
Shepherd’sBush
LatimerRoad
Finchley Road& Frognal
Essex Road
Westbourne Park
Ladbroke Grove
Royal Oak
SouthKensington
Richmond
Earl’sCourt
Dollis Hill
WillesdenGreen
Kilburn
Neasden
Brent Cross
Hendon Central
Hampstead
Hampstead Heath
Kentish TownWest
WalthamstowQueen’s Road
LeytonMidland Road
CamdenRoad
Golders Green
Elstree & Borehamwood
Mill Hill Broadway
Cricklewood
Swiss Cottage
Bayswater
Hounslow
Kew Gardens
Gunnersbury FulhamBroadway
StrawberryHill
WorcesterPark
South Wimbledon
DundonaldRoad
Streatham
TulseHill
Caterham
Upper WarlinghamWhyteleafe South
Whyteleafe
Kenley
Stoneleigh
Belmont
Banstead
Carshalton
Hackbridge
Epsom Downs
Tadworth
Kingswood
Tattenham Corner
St. John’s Wood
MorningtonCrescent
CoventGarden
RussellSquare
London Fields
Clapton
Leytonstone
St. JamesStreet
Cambridge Heath
Bethnal Green
Stepney Green
Whitechapel
NorthGreenwichfor The O2
PuddingMill Lane
LeicesterSquare
Bank
St. Paul’s
Angel
Westferry
WestcombePark
WoolwichDockyard
AbbeyWood
PlumsteadDeptford
Blackheath Kidbrooke
Welling
Falconwood
Barnehurst
Bexleyheath
Mottingham
Lee
Bickley St. Mary Cray
AlbanyPark Crayford
BlackwallShadwellRoyal
VictoriaCustom Housefor ExCeL
Arsenal
Ilford
Manor Park
Seven Kings
Goodmayes
ChadwellHeath
Ockendon
ChaffordHundred
Gidea Park
Harold Wood
† Brentwood
† Shenfield
Upney
Becontree
DagenhamHeathway
Dagenham East
Elm Park
Hornchurch
UpminsterBridge
Buckhurst Hill
Leyton
Loughton
Debden
Theydon Bois
Epping
HackneyDowns
Holloway Road
Caledonian Road
Turnpike Lane
ManorHouse
Wood Green
Chingford
Highams Park
Wood Street
Angel Road
HarringayGreen LanesCrouch Hill
WalthamstowCentral
Old Street
Stratford
Mile End
Devons Road
Deptford Bridge
Elverson Road
Langdon Park
All Saints
Bromleyby-Bow
HackneyCentralCanonbury
DalstonKingsland
DalstonJunction
Homerton
HackneyWick
TottenhamHaleSeven Sisters
NorthumberlandPark
RedbridgeSnaresbrook
South Woodford
Woodford
Newbury Park
Barkingside
Fairlop
Hainault
LeytonstoneHigh Road
Wanstead Park
WoodgrangePark
Prince Regent
Royal Albert
Beckton Park
Cyprus
Gallions Reach
Erith
Slade Green
Belvedere
St. Johns
New Cross
Bellingham
Beckenham Hill
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ChislehurstPenge East
Kent House
Beckton
Barking
Maryland ForestGate
DagenhamDock
Rainham Purfleet Grays
EastIndia
UpminsterRomford
Anerley
Penge West
Lower Sydenham
MitchamEastfields
Raynes Park
New Malden
Cheam
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Berrylands
Surbiton
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QueenstownRoad (Battersea)
Euston
Moorgate
St. PancrasInter-
national
Fenchurch Street
King’sCross
LiverpoolStreet
Marylebone
Victoria
Waterlooand
Waterloo East
Ewell East
Morden
Brockley
New Cross Gate
SouthBermondsey
Honor Oak Park
Forest Hill
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Elephant & Castle
Stockwell
Vauxhall
MitchamJunction
Morden Road
Phipps Bridge
Belgrave Walk
Mitcham
Riddlesdown New Addington
King Henry’s Drive
Addington Village
Coombe Lane
Sanderstead
Wandle Park
Thornton Heath
StreathamCommon
GreatPortland
Street
White City
Kensington(Olympia)
West IndiaQuay
London City Airport
King George VSouth Quay
Crossharbour
Heron Quays
MudchuteIsland Gardens
Cutty Sark forMaritime Greenwich
Ladywell
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Sundridge Park
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WestSilvertown
EmiratesRoyal Docks
EmiratesGreenwichPeninsula
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Fieldway
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Woodside
Arena
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Clock House
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Rectory Road
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Regent’sPark
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LambethNorth
Wanstead Gants Hill
CityThameslink
Aldgate
EdgwareRoad
Monument TowerGateway
Westminster
Embankment
Finsbury Park
Limehouse
BlackhorseRoad
CanningTown
CharingCross
LondonBridge
Peckham Rye
West Ham
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TootingWimbledonChase
Paddington
Greenwich
WestBrompton
Imperial Wharf
Clapham Junction
CrystalPalace
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WoolwichArsenal
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Catford Catford Bridge
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Rail & Tube QR 24/10/2012 11:20 Page 1
Complex Systems and Networks
http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/passenger_services/maps/ 6 / 33
Complex Systems and Networks
The internet(By night!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_map8 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Network models
I Individuals are considered as nodes (‘vertices’) on a network.
I Properties of nodes are associated with variables.
I Links (‘edges’): interactions between individuals.
I Dynamical equations/rules determine time-evolution.
A =
0 1 0 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 00 1 0 1 0 00 0 1 0 1 11 1 0 1 0 00 0 0 1 0 0
I Adjacency matrix can be used to give information about importance of
nodes/links — “centrality measures”
I Google’s PageRank c© uses eigenvectors.
9 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Network models
I Individuals are considered as nodes (‘vertices’) on a network.
I Properties of nodes are associated with variables.
I Links (‘edges’): interactions between individuals.
I Dynamical equations/rules determine time-evolution.
A =
0 1 0 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 00 1 0 1 0 00 0 1 0 1 11 1 0 1 0 00 0 0 1 0 0
I Adjacency matrix can be used to give information about importance of
nodes/links — “centrality measures”
I Google’s PageRank c© uses eigenvectors.
9 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Network models
I Individuals are considered as nodes (‘vertices’) on a network.
I Properties of nodes are associated with variables.
I Links (‘edges’): interactions between individuals.
I Dynamical equations/rules determine time-evolution.
A =
0 1 0 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 00 1 0 1 0 00 0 1 0 1 11 1 0 1 0 00 0 0 1 0 0
I Adjacency matrix can be used to give information about importance of
nodes/links — “centrality measures”
I Google’s PageRank c© uses eigenvectors.
9 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Network models
I Individuals are considered as nodes (‘vertices’) on a network.
I Properties of nodes are associated with variables.
I Links (‘edges’): interactions between individuals.
I Dynamical equations/rules determine time-evolution.
A =
0 1 0 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 00 1 0 1 0 00 0 1 0 1 11 1 0 1 0 00 0 0 1 0 0
I Adjacency matrix can be used to give information about importance of
nodes/links — “centrality measures”
I Google’s PageRank c© uses eigenvectors.
9 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Types of network model
I Regular lattice:
⊕ e.g. city-like geography,
⊕ can have high clustering,
long path-lengths l ∝ d1/D .
I Random (Erdos Renyı):
⊕ short path lengths l ∝ log Nlog k
,
no clustering (N →∞).
10 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Types of network model
I Regular lattice:
⊕ e.g. city-like geography,
⊕ can have high clustering,
long path-lengths l ∝ d1/D .
I Random (Erdos Renyı):
⊕ short path lengths l ∝ log Nlog k
,
no clustering (N →∞).
10 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
“Complex” networks
I Different models reproduce different features.
(a)
(b) (c)
Figure: (a): A small world network with random rewiring of a regular lattice.
(b): A preferential attachment graph which has a scale-free degree distribution.(c): A simple model of weakly-connected communities.
11 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
“Complex” networks
I Different models reproduce different features.
(a) (b)
(c)
Figure: (a): A small world network with random rewiring of a regular lattice.(b): A preferential attachment graph which has a scale-free degree distribution.
(c): A simple model of weakly-connected communities.
11 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
“Complex” networks
I Different models reproduce different features.
(a) (b) (c)
Figure: (a): A small world network with random rewiring of a regular lattice.(b): A preferential attachment graph which has a scale-free degree distribution.(c): A simple model of weakly-connected communities.
11 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Why do networks matter?
“Braess’ paradox” for traffic flow:
Figure: From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess’s_paradox
I Solid lines: Constant (slow) roads.
I Dashed lines: Variable (fast) lines, depends on traffic density.
12 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Real-world relevance
I Mathematical results have shown that Braess’ paradox is about as likelyto occur as not occur in random additions to random networks.
I In Seoul a motorway closure resulted in traffic speeding up around thecity.
I In Stuttgart traffic improved after a section of road was closed for traffic.
I The closing of 42nd street in New York City reduced the amount ofcongestion.
I Studies have indicated routes in Boston, New York City and London thatcould be closed to reduce predicted travel times.
I Simulations have shown the effect in decentralized generation powertransmission networks.
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess’s_paradox.
13 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Real-world relevance
I Mathematical results have shown that Braess’ paradox is about as likelyto occur as not occur in random additions to random networks.
I In Seoul a motorway closure resulted in traffic speeding up around thecity.
I In Stuttgart traffic improved after a section of road was closed for traffic.
I The closing of 42nd street in New York City reduced the amount ofcongestion.
I Studies have indicated routes in Boston, New York City and London thatcould be closed to reduce predicted travel times.
I Simulations have shown the effect in decentralized generation powertransmission networks.
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess’s_paradox.
13 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Real-world relevance
I Mathematical results have shown that Braess’ paradox is about as likelyto occur as not occur in random additions to random networks.
I In Seoul a motorway closure resulted in traffic speeding up around thecity.
I In Stuttgart traffic improved after a section of road was closed for traffic.
I The closing of 42nd street in New York City reduced the amount ofcongestion.
I Studies have indicated routes in Boston, New York City and London thatcould be closed to reduce predicted travel times.
I Simulations have shown the effect in decentralized generation powertransmission networks.
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess’s_paradox.
13 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Real-world relevance
I Mathematical results have shown that Braess’ paradox is about as likelyto occur as not occur in random additions to random networks.
I In Seoul a motorway closure resulted in traffic speeding up around thecity.
I In Stuttgart traffic improved after a section of road was closed for traffic.
I The closing of 42nd street in New York City reduced the amount ofcongestion.
I Studies have indicated routes in Boston, New York City and London thatcould be closed to reduce predicted travel times.
I Simulations have shown the effect in decentralized generation powertransmission networks.
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess’s_paradox.
13 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Complex Systems and Networks
Interconnected Urban Networks
Figure: c© Leonardo Dueas–Osorio.From: https://simonsfoundation.org/features/science-news/treading-softly-in-a-connected-world/
AAbbey Road F3Abbey Wood G4Acton Central B3Acton Main Line B3Acton Town B3Addington Village E6Addiscombe E6Albany Park G5Aldgate E3Aldgate East E3Alexandra Palace E1All Saints F3Alperton B2Amersham A1Ampere Way D5Anerley E5Angel E3Angel Road F1Archway D2Arena E5Arnos Grove E1Arsenal E2Avenue Road F5
BBaker Street C3Balham C5Bank E3Banstead C6Barbican D3Barking G3Barkingside G2Barnehurst H4Barnes C4Barnes Bridge B4Barons Court C3Battersea Park C4Bayswater C3Beckenham Hill F5Beckenham Junction F5Beckenham Road F5Beckton G4Beckton Park G3Becontree H2Beddington Lane D5Belgrave Walk C5Bellingham F5Belmont C6Belsize Park D2Belvedere G4Bermondsey E4Berrylands B5Bethnal Green (LU) E3Bethnal Green
(Greater Anglia) E3Bexley G5Bexleyheath G4Bickley G5Birkbeck E5Blackfriars D3Blackheath F4Blackhorse Lane E6Blackhorse Road F2Blackwall F3Bond Street C3Borough D4Boston Manor A3Bounds Green E1Bow Church F3Bowes Park E1Bow Road F3Brent Cross C2Brentford B4Brentwood H1Brimsdown F1Brixton D4Brockley E4Bromley-by-Bow F3Bromley North F5Bromley South F5Brondesbury C2Brondesbury Park C2Broxbourne F1Bruce Grove F2Buckhurst Hill G1Burnt Oak C1Bushey B1Bush Hill Park F1
CCaledonian Road E2Caledonian Road
& Barnsbury E2Cambridge Heath E2Camden Road D2Camden Town D2Canada Water E4Canary Wharf F4Canning Town F3Cannon Street E3Canonbury E2Canons Park C1Carpenders Park B1Carshalton D6Carshalton Beeches D6Castle Bar Park A3Caterham E6Catford F5Catford Bridge F5Centrale D6Chadwell Heath H2Chafford Hundred H2Chalfont & Latimer A1Chalk Farm D2Chancery Lane D3Charing Cross D3Charlton G4Cheam C6
C continuedChelsfield G5Chesham A1Cheshunt F1Chessington North B6Chessington South B6Chigwell G1Chingford F1Chipstead D6Chislehurst G5Chiswick B4Chiswick Park B3Chorleywood A1Church Street D6City Thameslink D3Clapham Common D4Clapham High Street D4Clapham Junction C4Clapham North D4Clapham South D4Clapton F2Clock House F5Cockfosters E1Colindale C1Colliers Wood C5Coombe Lane E6Coulsdon South D6Coulsdon Town D6Covent Garden D3Crayford H5Crews Hill E1Cricklewood C2Crofton Park F5Crossharbour F4Crouch Hill E2Croxley A1Crystal Palace E5Custom House for
ExCeL G3Cutty Sark for
Maritime Greenwich F4Cyprus G3
DDagenham Dock H3Dagenham East H2Dagenham Heathway H2Dalston Junction E2Dalston Kingsland E2Debden G1Denmark Hill D4Deptford F4Deptford Bridge F4Devons Road F3Dollis Hill C2Drayton Green A3Drayton Park E2Dundonald Road C5
EEaling Broadway B3Ealing Common B3Earl’s Court C3Earlsfield C4East Acton B3Eastcote B2East Croydon E6East Dulwich D4East Finchley D1East Ham G3East India F3East Putney C4Eden Park F5Edgware C1Edgware Road C3Edmonton Green F1Elephant & Castle D4Elmers End F5Elm Park H2Elmstead Woods G5Elstree &
Borehamwood C1Eltham G4Elverson Road F4Embankment D3Emerson Park H2Emirates Greenwich
Peninsula F4Emirates Royal Docks G3Enfield Chase E1Enfield Lock F1Enfield Town F1Epping G1Epsom Downs C6Erith H4Essex Road E3Euston D3Euston Square D3Ewell East C6Ewell West C6
FFairlop G2Falconwood G4Farringdon D3Feltham A5Fenchurch Street E3Fieldway F6Finchley Central D1Finchley Road C2Finchley Road & Frognal C2Finsbury Park E2Forest Gate G2Forest Hill E5Fulham Broadway C4Fulwell A5
GGallions Reach G3Gants Hill G2George Street E6Gidea Park H2
G continuedGipsy Hill D5Gloucester Road C3Golders Green D2Goldhawk Road B3Goodge Street D3Goodmayes G2Gordon Hill E1Gospel Oak D2Grange Hill G1Grange Park E1Gravel Hill E6Grays H3Great Portland Street D3Greenford A2Green Park C3Greenwich F4Grove Park F5Gunnersbury B4
HHackbridge D6Hackney Central F2Hackney Downs F2Hackney Wick F2Hadley Wood E1Haggerston E3Hainault G1Hammersmith B3Hampstead D2Hampstead Heath D2Hampton A5Hampton Court A5Hampton Wick B5Hanger Lane B3Hanwell A3Harlesden B2Harold Wood H2Harringay E2Harringay Green Lanes E2Harrington Road E5Harrow & Wealdstone B1Harrow-on-the-Hill B2Hatch End B1Hatton Cross A4Haydons Road C5Hayes E6Hayes & Harlington A3Headstone Lane B1Heathrow
Terminals 1, 2, 3 A4Heathrow Terminal 4 A4Heathrow Terminal 5 A4Hendon C2Hendon Central C2Herne Hill D5Heron Quays F4Highams Park F1High Barnet D1Highbury & Islington E2Highgate D2High Street Kensington C3Hillingdon A1Hither Green F5Holborn D3Holland Park C3Holloway Road E2Homerton F2Honor Oak Park E5Hornchurch H2Hornsey E2Hounslow A4Hounslow Central A4Hounslow East A4Hounslow West A4Hoxton E3Hyde Park Corner C3
IIckenham A1Ilford G2Imperial Wharf C4Island Gardens F4Isleworth A4
KKenley E6Kennington D4Kensal Green B2Kensal Rise C2Kensington (Olympia) C3Kent House E5Kentish Town D2Kentish Town West D2Kenton B1Kew Bridge B4Kew Gardens B4Kidbrooke F4Kilburn C2Kilburn High Road C2Kilburn Park C2King George V G4King Henry’s Drive F6King’s Cross D3Kingsbury C1Kingston B5Kingswood D6Knightsbridge C3Knockholt G5
LLadbroke Grove C3Ladywell F5Lambeth North D4Lancaster Gate C3Langdon Park F3Latimer Road B3Lebanon Road E6Lee F5Leicester Square D3Lewisham F4
L continuedLeyton F2Leyton Midland Road F2Leytonstone G2Leytonstone High Road G2Limehouse F3Liverpool Street E3Lloyd Park E6London Bridge D4London City Airport G4London Fields F2Loughborough Junction D4Loughton G1Lower Sydenham F5
MMaida Vale C2Malden Manor B5Manor House E2
M continuedManor Park G2Mansion House D3Marble Arch C3Maryland F2Marylebone C3Maze Hill F4Merton Park C5Mile End F3Mill Hill Broadway C1Mill Hill East D1Mitcham C5Mitcham Eastfields D5Mitcham Junction C5Monument E3Moor Park A1Moorgate E3Morden C5Morden Road C5
M continuedMorden South C5Mornington Crescent D2Mortlake B4Motspur Park B5Mottingham G5Mudchute F4
NNeasden C2New Addington F6New Barnet E1New Beckenham F5Newbury Park G2New Cross E4New Cross Gate E4New Eltham G5New Malden B5New Southgate E1Norbiton B5
N continuedNorbury D5North Acton B3North Dulwich D5North Ealing B3Northfields A3North Greenwich F4North Harrow B1Northolt A2Northolt Park A2North Sheen B4Northumberland Park F1North Wembley B2Northwick Park B2Northwood B1Northwood Hills B1Norwood Junction E5Notting Hill Gate C3Nunhead E4
OOakleigh Park E1Oakwood E1Ockendon H2Old Street E3Orpington G5Osterley A4Oval D4Oxford Circus D3
PPaddington C3Palmers Green E1Park Royal B3Parsons Green C4Peckham Rye E4Penge East E5Penge West E5Perivale A2Petts Wood G5
P continuedPhipps Bridge C5Piccadilly Circus D3Pimlico C4Pinner B1Plaistow F3Plumstead G4Ponders End F1Pontoon Dock G3Poplar F3Preston Road C2Prince Regent G3Pudding Mill Lane F3Purfleet H3Purley E6Purley Oaks E6Putney C4Putney Bridge C4
QQueensbury C1Queen’s Park B2Queens Road Peckham E4Queenstown Road
(Battersea) C4Queensway C3
RRainham H3Ravensbourne F5Ravenscourt Park B3Rayners Lane B2Raynes Park B5Rectory Road F2Redbridge G2Reedham D6Reeves Corner D6Regent’s Park D3
R continuedRichmond B4Rickmansworth A1Riddlesdown E6Roding Valley G1Romford H2Rotherhithe E4Royal Albert G3Royal Oak C3Royal Victoria G3Ruislip A1Ruislip Gardens A2Ruislip Manor A1Russell Square D3
SSt. Helier C6St. James Street F2St. James’s Park C3
S continuedSt. Johns F4St. John’s Wood C2St. Margarets B4St. Mary Cray G5St. Pancras International D2St. Paul’s D3Sanderstead E6Sandilands E6Selhurst D5Seven Kings G2Seven Sisters F2Shadwell E3Shenfield H1Shepherd’s Bush C3Shepherd’s Bush Market B3Shoreditch High Street E3Shortlands F5
S continuedSidcup G5Silver Street F1Slade Green H4Sloane Square C3Snaresbrook G2South Acton B3Southall A3South Bermondsey E4Southbury F1South Croydon E6South Ealing B3Southfields C4South Greenford A2South Hampstead C2South Harrow B2Southgate E1South Kensington C3South Kenton B2
S continuedSouth Merton C5South Quay F4South Ruislip A2South Tottenham F2Southwark D4South Wimbledon C5South Woodford G2Stamford Brook B3Stamford Hill F2Stanmore C1Star Lane F3Stepney Green E3Stockwell D4Stoke Newington F2Stonebridge Park B2Stoneleigh C6Stratford F2Stratford High Street F3
S continuedStratford International F2Strawberry Hill A5Streatham D5Streatham Common D5Streatham Hill D5Sudbury & Harrow Road B2Sudbury Hill B2Sudbury Hill Harrow B2Sudbury Town B2Sundridge Park F5Surbiton B5Surrey Quays E4Sutton C6Sutton Common C6Swiss Cottage C2Sydenham E5Sydenham Hill E5Syon Lane A4
TTadworth D6Tattenham Corner D6Teddington A5Temple D3Thames Ditton B5Theobalds Grove F1Therapia Lane D5Theydon Bois G1Thornton Heath D5Tolworth B5Tooting C5Tooting Bec C5Tooting Broadway C5Tottenham Court Road D3Tottenham Hale F2Totteridge &
Whetstone D1
T continuedTower Gateway E3Tower Hill E3Tufnell Park D2Tulse Hill D5Turkey Street F1Turnham Green B3Turnpike Lane E2Twickenham A5
UUpminster H2Upminster Bridge H2Upney G3Upper Holloway D2Upper Warlingham E6Upton Park G3Uxbridge A1
VVauxhall C4Victoria C3
WWaddon D6Waddon Marsh D5Wallington D6Waltham Cross F1Walthamstow Central F2Walthamstow
Queen’s Road F2Wandle Park D5Wandsworth Common C4Wandsworth Road C4Wandsworth Town C4Wanstead G2Wanstead Park G2Wapping E3Warren Street D3
W continuedWarwick Avenue C3Waterloo D4Watford A1Watford High Street B1Watford Junction B1Welling G4Wellesley Road E6Wembley Park C2Wembley Stadium C2West Acton B3Wembley Central B2Westbourne Park C3West Brompton C4Westcombe Park F4West Croydon D6West Drayton A3West Dulwich E5West Ealing B3
W continuedWestferry F3West Finchley D1West Ham F3West Hampstead C2West Harrow B2West India Quay F3Westminster D3West Norwood D5West Ruislip A1West Kensington C3West Silvertown G3West Sutton C6West Wickham E6White City B3Whitechapel E3White Hart Lane F1Whitton A5Whyteleafe E6
W continuedWhyteleafe South E6Willesden Green C2Willesden Junction B2Wimbledon C5Wimbledon Chase C5Wimbledon Park C4Winchmore Hill E1Woodford G1Woodgrange Park G3Wood Green E1Wood Lane B3Woodmansterne D6Woodside E5Woodside Park D1Wood Street F1Woolwich Arsenal G4Woolwich Dockyard G4Worcester Park C6
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or on Heathrow Express.
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A B C D E F G H
A B C D E F G H
ChigwellRodingValley
Grange Hill
Enfield Lock
Waltham Cross †
Cheshunt †
Broxbourne †Crews Hill
Gordon Hill
Enfield Chase
Grange Park
Winchmore Hill
Palmers Green
Bowes Park
Southbury
† TheobaldsGrove
TurkeyStreet
Brimsdown
Ponders End
Amersham
Chalfont& Latimer
Rayners Lane
Greenford
PiccadillyCircus
Brixton
Herne Hill
TottenhamCourt Road
BowRoad
BowChurch
WoodLane
Harrow-on-the-Hill
EalingBroadway
NorthwickPark
NortholtPark
WembleyStadium
BrondesburyPark
EdgwareRoad
Plaistow East HamUptonPark
EmersonPark
PrestonRoad Wembley Park
Farringdon
Baker Street
Gospel Oak
NottingHill Gate
High StreetKensington
GoodgeStreet
Chorleywood
Rickmansworth
South Harrow
Hanger Lane
West Ruislip
Bushey
Harrow & Wealdstone
Wembley Central
Watford Junction
South Ruislip
HeathrowTerminals
1, 2, 3
Sudbury Hill
EalingCommon
Balham
Clapham High Street
Wimbledon
Clapham North
Hammersmith
Watford
Croxley
Moor Park
RuislipManor
Eastcote
Perivale
Ruislip
Northwood
NorthwoodHills
Pinner
North Harrow
Kilburn ParkMaida Vale
WarwickAvenue
WarrenStreet
Hillingdon
Uxbridge Ickenham
RuislipGardens
Northolt
Castle Bar Park
South Greenford
Drayton Green
West Harrow
Kensal Rise
Upper Holloway
CaledonianRoad &
Barnsbury
SouthTottenham
BethnalGreen
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national
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14 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Modelling innovation diffusion on networks
I Households are nodes on a network.I Innovation adoption or not are the variables.
I Links: interactions where people communicate informationwith each other about energy.
I Behaviour rules determine uptake dynamics.
15 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Modelling innovation diffusion on networks
I Households are nodes on a network.I Innovation adoption or not are the variables.
I Links: interactions where people communicate informationwith each other about energy.
I Behaviour rules determine uptake dynamics.
15 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Threshold model dynamical rules
I Current adoption state, xi = 0, 1.
I Uptake based on perceived “usefulness” crossing a threshold:
future state: x ′i =
1 if xi = 1,1 if xi = 0 and ui > θi ,0 otherwise.
(1)
I θi : threshold (barriers, costs etc.)
16 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Factors influencing uptake
Decisions to adopt can be based on various factors:
a) rational decision-making with regards to the intrinsic value ofa product;
b) social spreading of technology or ideas induced bypeer-to-peer communication of information;
c) interaction with the “mainstream” via a global feedback:I e.g. via media, markets etc.
17 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Intrinsic benefit
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18 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Social aspects of decision-making
I Decision of to adopt based on combination of factors:I personal + social benefit1.
I Intrinsic benefits to individual.I Social benefit combination of both2:
I personal social network – friends & neighbours,I mainstream social norm (society as a whole).
1: Delre et al., “Will it spread or not? the effects of social influences and network topology on innovationdiffusion.” Journal of Product Innovation Management (2010).
2: Valente, “Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations.” Social networks (1996).
19 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Social aspects of decision-making
I Decision of to adopt based on combination of factors:I personal + social benefit1.
I Intrinsic benefits to individual.
I Social benefit combination of both2:I personal social network – friends & neighbours,I mainstream social norm (society as a whole).
1: Delre et al., “Will it spread or not? the effects of social influences and network topology on innovationdiffusion.” Journal of Product Innovation Management (2010).
2: Valente, “Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations.” Social networks (1996).
19 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Social aspects of decision-making
I Decision of to adopt based on combination of factors:I personal + social benefit1.
I Intrinsic benefits to individual.I Social benefit combination of both2:
I personal social network – friends & neighbours,I mainstream social norm (society as a whole).
1: Delre et al., “Will it spread or not? the effects of social influences and network topology on innovationdiffusion.” Journal of Product Innovation Management (2010).
2: Valente, “Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations.” Social networks (1996).
19 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Mathematical model
I Total utility to individual♠:
ui = αi pi + βi si + γi m (2)
I pi , si ,m: personal, peer-group and societal influence.I αi , βi , γi : relative weightings given to each factor,
I Different types of people have different αi , βi , γi —“archetypes”
♠ McCullen et al., “Multi-parameter models of innovation diffusion on complex networks”, SIADS (2013).
20 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Mathematical model
I Total utility to individual♠:
ui = αi pi + βi si + γi m (2)
I pi , si ,m: personal, peer-group and societal influence.I αi , βi , γi : relative weightings given to each factor,
I Different types of people have different αi , βi , γi —“archetypes”
♠ McCullen et al., “Multi-parameter models of innovation diffusion on complex networks”, SIADS (2013).
20 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Real-world social networks
I Real networks have many features, including:I local connections, distant ties, wide spread in degrees,
community structure. . .
Figure: Inter-friend contacts on the Facebook website.
21 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Random clustered model?
I Each node associated with G groups.
I Linked to L others in each group.
I Can also be linked to individuals in wider network.
I Can also impose geography.
?: Newman “Properties of highly clustered networks.” Physical Review E (2003).
22 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Simulation demonstration
23 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Outcomes — homogeneous archetypes
Expected chance of success depends on details:
t1 t2
t3 t4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
frac
tion
of a
dopt
ers
time (months)
24 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Outcomes — homogeneous archetypes
Expected chance of success depends on details:
t1 t2
t3 t4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
frac
tion
of a
dopt
ers
time (months)
24 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Outcomes — homogeneous archetypes
Expected chance of success depends on details:
t1 t2
t3 t4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
frac
tion
of a
dopt
ers
time (months)
24 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Analysis of Results
I Given individuals have a certain θ, p, α, β, γ and m,require critical fraction of active neighbours:
s∗ =θ − αp − γm
β, (3)
I s∗ > 1: impossible,
I s∗ ≤ 0: immediate,
I 0 < s∗ ≤ 1: required number of active contacts:
Xi ≥ dki s∗e ≡ X ∗i , (4)
I combining (3) and (4) gives X ∗ regions of beta, γ plots. . .
25 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Analysis of Results
I Given individuals have a certain θ, p, α, β, γ and m,require critical fraction of active neighbours:
s∗ =θ − αp − γm
β, (3)
I s∗ > 1: impossible,
I s∗ ≤ 0: immediate,
I 0 < s∗ ≤ 1: required number of active contacts:
Xi ≥ dki s∗e ≡ X ∗i , (4)
I combining (3) and (4) gives X ∗ regions of beta, γ plots. . .
25 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Analysis of Results
I Given individuals have a certain θ, p, α, β, γ and m,require critical fraction of active neighbours:
s∗ =θ − αp − γm
β, (3)
I s∗ > 1: impossible,
I s∗ ≤ 0: immediate,
I 0 < s∗ ≤ 1: required number of active contacts:
Xi ≥ dki s∗e ≡ X ∗i , (4)
I combining (3) and (4) gives X ∗ regions of beta, γ plots. . .
25 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Analysis of Results
I Given individuals have a certain θ, p, α, β, γ and m,require critical fraction of active neighbours:
s∗ =θ − αp − γm
β, (3)
I s∗ > 1: impossible,
I s∗ ≤ 0: immediate,
I 0 < s∗ ≤ 1: required number of active contacts:
Xi ≥ dki s∗e ≡ X ∗i , (4)
I combining (3) and (4) gives X ∗ regions of beta, γ plots. . .
25 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Analysis of Results
I Given individuals have a certain θ, p, α, β, γ and m,require critical fraction of active neighbours:
s∗ =θ − αp − γm
β, (3)
I s∗ > 1: impossible,
I s∗ ≤ 0: immediate,
I 0 < s∗ ≤ 1: required number of active contacts:
Xi ≥ dki s∗e ≡ X ∗i , (4)
I combining (3) and (4) gives X ∗ regions of beta, γ plots. . .
25 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Comparison with Watts-Strogatz
(a) 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
β
γ
WS, pr=0, N=500, -k=6
αp = θαp + γm0 = θ
mean fieldX*=1X*=2X*=3X*=4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
aver
age
upta
ke
(c) 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
β
γ
Truss WS, pr=0.05, N=500, k=8 (2sw)
αp = θαp + γm0 = θ
mean fieldX*=1X*=2X*=3X*=4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
aver
age
upta
ke
(b) 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
β
γ
WS, pr=0.2, N=500, -k=6
αp = θαp + γm0 = θ
mean fieldX*=1X*=2X*=3X*=4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
aver
age
upta
ke
(d) 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
β
γ
Truss WS, pr=0.2, N=500, k=8 (2sw)
αp = θαp + γm0 = θ
mean fieldX*=1X*=2X*=3X*=4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
aver
age
upta
ke
Figure: (a) 1D k = 6, pr = 0, (b) 1D k = 6, pr = 0.2;(c) truss k = 8, pr = 0.05, (d) truss k = 8, pr = 0.2.
26 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
The Effect of Clustering
Clustering creates non-independent neighbourhoods:
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
I Only one “success” required in network for spreading to occur.
27 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Modelling the Diffusion of Energy Innovation
Clustering and Communities
Enhances expected uptake:
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
0.24
0.28
0.32
20 40 100 160
c
W
0.4 0.6 0.8 1_m(36)
Figure: Expected uptake for clustered random network, with number ofgroups W determining level of clustering c .
I Only one “success” required in network for spreading to occur.
28 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Using Real-World Data to Inform the Models
Inputting real data
I Survey data including info on behaviours.
I Over 1050 valid responses received from residents of Leeds.
I Data used as a guide rather than definitive source,
I used to narrow choice of structure and parameter values,I also to illustrate potential applications.
Model element Parameter Question / Data
Network number of active individual Q. on who talks to/ group connections. whom about energy.
Threshold θ Q. on house type,tenancy and income.
Node archetypes α, β, γ Defra types of pro-enviro. behaviour
Bale, McCullen et al., Complexity (2014)
29 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Using Real-World Data to Inform the Models
Parametrising the models
Model Feature Parameters Data (if used)
Network structure N, G , M | W , L Survey | Assumption
Individual connections I | L Survey | Assumption
Group connections G | L Survey | Assumption
Archetypes Ai = (αi , βi , γi ), P(Ai ) Simulation
Threshold θ | Pθ Survey | Assumption
30 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Comparing Intervention Scenarios
Modelling scenarios
I Different scenarios studied by varying dynamical modeland network parameters.
Baseline Seeded Community Incentives Snowball
Give efficiency Give efficiency Advertise a Recommend-a-Model Do Nothing measure to some measure to whole money off friend discountParam. (random) individuals communities. scheme. voucher scheme.
Links Data based – – – Increase
Threshold Data based – – Lower Lower
Initial Seed Unforced Random Target – –
Bale, McCullen at al., Energy Policy (2013)
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EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Comparing Intervention Scenarios
Comparison of model scenarios
Baseline Seeded Communities
Incentives Snowball
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EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Further reading
Research published in McCullen et al., “Multi-parameter models ofinnovation diffusion on complex networks”, SIADS (2013).:
and spreading via online networks. . .
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EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Further reading
Research published in McCullen et al., “Multi-parameter models ofinnovation diffusion on complex networks”, SIADS (2013).:
and spreading via online networks. . .
33 / 33
EDEn Energy and the Design of Environments
Further reading
Research published in McCullen et al., “Multi-parameter models ofinnovation diffusion on complex networks”, SIADS (2013).:
and spreading via online networks. . .
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