Census & Demographic Analysis for Household Formation –The Luton Experience

Census & Demographic Analysis for Household Formation –The

Luton Experience

Eddie HolmesResearch Information Officer

Luton Borough Council

Overview

Demographic analysis for population & household projections

Projections proposed to be used in the Luton & Central Bedfordshire Housing Market Area SHMA

Luton Background

Census, Luton’s population 202,300, 10% growth since 2001, 2012 MYE 205,800

74,300 households, with an average HH size of 2.71. Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001 –Reverse of national trend

Mayhew Harper study considered there to be 77,000 households in Luton in 2010

Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people Strong population growth in inner areas LBC considered pre 2011 MYE to be under-estimating population but

the gap is closing High population density and limited space to build

Luton Background

High population turn-over, estimated 70% of population either not born or moved to Luton since 2001 Census (Mayhew Harper Associates)

High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census Large South Asian population High international migration –’super-diverse’ over 100 languages and

dialects spoken New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence

this is not short term migration 50% of town not born in UK 25,000 people in Luton arrived in UK since 2004

Luton Population Growth 2001-2011

Census Issues

2001 Census 84% response rate in Luton –under enumeration and under-estimation of population (90% in 2011)

Net migration figure does not reflect experience of town and also Mayhew-Harper study of 2010

Official figures have struggled to capture demographic change – over-crowding households

School roll projections affected by high number of new migrants such as Polish and African children

Forecasting Scenarios

ONS components of change used for migration to be consistent with neighbouring authorities

Some concerns with these data –IPS and under-estimation issues nationally

Luton population starting point 2,000 higher than official population figure

Five Year, eight year and ten year averages of ONS components of change for internal and international migration

Migration rate used for future projections to match ONS methodology POPGROUP and Derived forecast model used

Projection Results

Projected Household Formation from CLG 2011 interim rates

Issues from HH Projections

Growth in lone parent with dependent children Households

Growth in ‘other households’ Issue in Luton with multiple occupancy and

growth in multi-generational households How well are the projections capturing this?

Wider Issues

Luton has estimated capacity for 6,000 households over next 20 years – all three projection scenarios well above this

Overcrowding: Should HH projections be trend or policy based?

Will migration continue at current levels Housing benefit issue –Luton is one of the

cheapest areas in the region Duty to cooperate

Concluding remarks

Overview of population & household projections within an urban area and highly diverse population

Consultancy work – we have been commissioned to do work in a more rural area with a military population - alternative scenarios based on economic forecasts

Available for forecasting and demographic work Any questions?

Contact

Eddie Holmes [email protected] [email protected] Tel: 01582 54 7093