Vervoort j 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_astier
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From governance
scenarios to climate action Insights from scenario-guided policy
development across six global
regions
Joost Vervoort – Environmental Change Institute,
University of Oxford
CGIAR program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
Security
Future Earth “Seeds of a Good Anthropocene”
FP7 TRANSMANGO
H2020 SUSFANS
Linking scenarios and policy
• Scenarios can be a powerful
approach for exploring futures in
complex systems
• However, scenarios are not
strategies – adaptation to
what?
• Need to integrate scenarios
with policy and governance
processes
The CCAFS scenarios project
Eastern Africa Western Africa
Southeast Asia Central
America
Andes Region
South Asia
CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: CC
and ag policies, practices and measures – facilitating
climate smart agriculture and food systems
CCAFS scenarios project
• Regional socio-economic and climate scenarios
• Stakeholder-driven; quantified IMPACT (IFPRI) &
GLOBIOM(IIASA); linked to SSPs/RCPs
• With 240 partner organisations FAO, UNEP
WCMC, Oxfam, regional and national stakeholders
• Goal: guide policy development at national and
regional levels + guide global development
organisations
(Vermeulen et al. 2013, Chaudhury et al. 2013, Vervoort et al. 2014)
Developing vs. using scenarios
Vervoort et al. Global Environmental Change 2014
Two approaches: • 1. start with plan,
develop scenarios; test across scenarios (Honduras)
• 2. Develop scenarios, develop plans in individual scenarios, test across scenarios (Bangladesh)
Draft plan Test plan in scenarios
Develop scenarios
Robust plan
Develop scenarios
Scenarios Inspire plan elements
Test elements across scenarios
Robust plan
Case studies
• Honduras: SAG Agricultural CC
adaptation plan. Started with
incomplete draft, scenario review
and deep changes, now regional
implementation + interest
throughout government
• Cambodia: CCPAP. Southeast
Asia scenarios long
collaborative process + internal
training public consultations
implementation
Case studies
• Bangladesh: 7th FYP.
Generating ideas for
strengthening broad
country strategy.
• Tanzania: multiple rounds
of reviews
• Burkina Faso: integration
of science and policy
agendas
• Ghana: multi-level
integration
• Colombia: last-minute
changes
Case studies
Key factors:
• Focusing on specific policies
• Trust, timing, openness
• Full policy formulation process, and beyond
• Flexibility and credibility of the scenarios
• Rapid development of new relationships
• Informing process outsiders
• Vermeulen, S. J., A. J. Challinor, P. K. Thornton, B. M. Campbell, N. Eriyagama, J. M. Vervoort, J. Kinyangi, A. Jarvis, P. Läderach, J. Ramirez-Villegas, K. J. Nicklin, E. Hawkins, and D. R. Smith. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110:8357-8362.
• Vervoort, J. M., ., P. Thornton, P. Kristjanson, W. Förch, P. J. Ericksen, K. Kok, J. S. I. Ingram, M. Herrero, A. Palazzo, A. E. S. Helfgott, A. Wilkinson, P. Havlík, ., D. Mason-D'Croz, and C. Jost. 2014. Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change.
• Chaudhury, M., J. Vervoort, P. Kristjanson, P. Ericksen, and A. Ainslie. 2013. Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa. Regional Environmental Change 13:389-398.
• http://ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios - look for blogs and video - Joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk
A B C D
A1 B1 C1 D1
A2 B2 C2 D2
A3 B3 C3 D3
FACTORS, STATES
COMPATIBILITY
B1 B2 B3
A1 2 0 1
A2 1 1 1
A3 2 0 2
SCENARIOS
(A2,B2,C2,D1) (A1,B3,C1,D3)
(A3,B3,C2,D3)
FINAL SCENARIOS
(A2,B2,C2,D1) (A1,B3,C1,D3)
(A3,B3,C2,D3) 10000s of ways
(A2,B1,C2,D1)
Choose 4,6,8..
MATLAB program (OLDFAR)
Sugarcane yields under four climate models and “no climate change” for five socio-economic scenarios for South Asia, indexed to 2010
Games & scenarios
• Integrating decision-making and
governance dynamically into
scenarios
• Using participatory game design
• Games - participatory system models
+ the benefits of identification and
immersion
• Scenarios can be explored
dynamically; multiple perspectives
• Bridge power gaps
Nils Ferrand’s work
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