Vrontisi z 20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin

Global Energy and Climate Outlook

GECO 2015 -Road to Paris

Zoi Vrontisi

Labat, A., Kitous, A., Perry, M., Saveyn, B., Vandyck, T., and Vrontisi, Z.

European Commission – JRC

IPTS Sevilla

Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference

7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Trade

31 industries Households

Government

POLES GEM-E3

GHG emission paths

Power mix

Data sources: GTAP8 Eurostat ILO OECD

Employment Production Imports

Consumption Investment Exports

Macro Assumptions

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www.gem-e3.net

• World GHG emissions by sector – all sectors on board

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• Baseline • Global mitigation scenario

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• World GHG emission reductions (excl. LULUCF)

By sector By technology option

• Global decarbonisation of power sector

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• Lower GHG emission intensity and per capita – all

countries on board

• GDP impacts of Global Mitigation scenario

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• GDP growth rates are maintained

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• Smart Implementation of fiscal policies

higher growth rates

• The impact on employment per sector

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Global Mitigation scenario as a % change from Baseline scenario,

2030

Conclusions:

All sectors and countries need to get on board to achieve the 2°C target

The energy system will undergo a substantial transformation

Global action to cut emissions is compatible with robust economic

growth

Region-specific results can be found in the GECO 2015 Report

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• Thank you for your attention

• https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/geco-road-paris-

study-published

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Additional slides

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• Carbon values

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• Baseline • Global mitigation scenario

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• Emission mitigation options: global

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• Global final energy consumption

EU

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USA

China India

Regional GHG

Emissions (Mt CO2e)

Projections in Global mitigation scenarios/ Not policy prescriptive

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Baseline Global Mitigation Action

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• Cumulative CO2 emissions 2010-2050

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