Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions
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Tourism and Climate Change:Issues, Trends and Solutions
Presentation to PNWER Summit, 2008, Vancouver, July 22, 2008
Anna Pollock,Executive Consultant,
Environmental ServicesInterVISTAS Consulting Inc.
2
Paper available from:
www.theicarusfoundation.com
Background Resource
The Science
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Tourism is both a victim and a contributor to climate change
Tourism: Is it part of the problem or the solution?
Dr. Pachauri, Head of IPCC & Co-winner of Nobel Peace Prize
What’s at Stake?
Tourism in PWNER
SPENDING(Billion)
TAX(billion)
EMPLOYMENT PAYROLL(billion)
ALASKA $ 1.6 $.271 23,500 $0.681
WASHINGTON $10.1 $1.7 104,700 $2.5
OREGON $ 6.7 $0.9 77,700 $1.5
IDAHO $ 2.7 $0.428 22,400 $0.392
MONTANA $ 2.4 $0.261 26,000 $0.375
TOTAL $23.5 $3.597 254,300 $5.461
Tourism in Pacific Northwest USA
Source: TIA: www.poweroftravel.org
SPENDING(Billion)
TAX(billion)
EMPLOYMENT
British Columbia
$ 9.8 266,000
Alberta $ 5.3 180,000
Yukon $ 0.164 1900
Saskatchewan $ 1.4 60,000
TOTAL $16.54 507,000
Tourism in Western Canada
Tourism as Clusters, as Network
Source: Oregon Strategic Plan
Employment
Revenues
Taxes
Talent
Community rejuvenation
Environmental Stewardship
1960s 1980s 1990s 2010+
Changing Role & Value of Tourism
What do members have in common?
Tourism in PWNER
Adventure, Eco, Nature, Wildlife
Wildlife viewing worth $1 billion in Washington state
Wilderness tourism generated $1.5 billion in direct and indirect spend in British Columbia, supported 2200 businesses
High yield, affluent, educated clientele
Market Appeal
Market Appeal
Market Appeal
Market Appeal
Market Appeal
Market Appeal
Ecological Diversity
Population Growth & Change
Tourism Growth
In Washington state, travel spending has increased annually between 2002 and 2007.
Optimism
Fragility
These plus 22 other mammals and 540 other species are at significant risk of extinction in BC
Climate ChangeEco-Literacy
Global Carbon Emissions
Global Carbon Concentrations
Global Temperatures Rising
Just how warm do we want to be?
"If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, substantial global impacts will occur, such as species extinctions, and millions of people will be at risk from drought, hunger, flooding.“ International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
+ 2°C(+ 0.6°)
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A Matter of Urgency
If there is no action before 2012, it’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.
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Source of the Problem
Wild Cards & Positive Feedback Loops
Attitude of humility needed Albedo effect Methane Deforestation Ocean currents
It’s Getting Worse Not Better
It’s Getting Worse Not Better
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), published October 25, 2007
Earth’s waste absorption capacity deteriorating
Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO2 globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions.
Value= €0.5 trillion
18% loss of efficiency
The West is Particularly Vulnerable
When compared to the 20th Century average, the West has experienced an increase in average temperature during the last 5 years that is 70% greater than the world as a whole. NRDC, March 2008
Scope of Impacts on Business
Physical Impacts
Precipitation
Landscapes
Business Viability
Loss of business Risk Management Cost control Increased insurance Adaptation expenses
Convergence of Threats
Traveling with a Guilty Conscious?
"Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.”
– "Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions."
- Richard ChartreBishop of London
Changing Consumer Values
2007 the tipping point in consumer awareness One trip from England to New Zealand burns 60% more
carbon than a trip to Scotland – will this affect travel patterns?
43 million US travellers are concerned about green issues
24% said air travel should be avoided to help preserve the environment
26% would pay a premium of up to 10% for an eco-friendly flight
Still not clear how much behavior is changing as only 3% however, have purchased carbon ‘off-sets’
Changing Business Travel Patterns
Big business is acting quickly All public companies required to disclose
carbon footprint as part of its CSR report Companies with huge travel budgets like PWC,
Siemens etc are targeting a 20% reduction in air travel for each staff member.
Green meetings and Incentive travel next to be seriously affected
Reducing internally first, then delving into supply chain
What’s the Cure?
Reduce 25% of 1990 levels by 2020
Reduce 80% of 1990 levels by 2050
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Government Responses
Reduction Targets – all levels of government BC’s new carbon tax The EU plans to add aviation to its Emissions
Trading Scheme (ETS) starting in 2012 for intra-EU flights and all flights departing from or arriving in the EU
Cap & trade legislation inevitable regionally if not nationally
Starting in 2009, the UK intends to replace air passenger duty with a “per flight” tax based on carbon emissions
Sub-Sectors CO2 (Mt)
Air transport 522 40%
Car transport 418 32%
Other transport 39 3%
Accommodation 274 21%
Activities 52 4%
TOTAL 1,307 100%
Total World (IPCC 2007)
26,400
Tourism Contribution 5 %
Source: UNWTO, 200746
Tourism’s Contribution
Growth vs Emissions Reductions
Volume Growth4 x increase 1990-2020
Emissions Reductions25% reduction, 1990-2020
So How is Tourism Perceived as Responding?
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Poorly!
So How is Tourism Responding?
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50
PR
EP
AR
ED
NE
SS
Low
High
RISK High
Low
Source: KPMG
Transport, Tourism, Aviation in Danger Zone
National or Regional Carbon Footprints
Aviation emissions account for ~78% of all emissions Internal GHG reductions dwarfed by air travel emissions
Whistler’s Carbon Footprint
Source: Energy Information Administration
Visitor Travel to/from Whistler
2030
~ 14%
~ 86%
Internal
Whistler’s CO2 Emissions
Aviation Emissions Growing Faster than Total Emissions
US CO2 Emissions Annualized Growth Rate 1980 - 2004
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Annual Percentage Change
Aviation
Transport
Total
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
Sources: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 and OECD
Some Good News – Efficiency Gains
0.0
0.1
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0.9
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CO
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mis
sio
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pe
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as
se
ng
er
Mil
e -
Po
un
ds
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007.
CAGR: -1.9%
US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions per Passenger Mile 1980 – 2004
From Winglets to?
Source: Airliners.net http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1060096/L/
From Oil to Algae
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Pa
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However, Rapid Growth in Air Travel
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007.
CAGR: 4.0%
US Domestic Air Travel 1980 - 2004
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To
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CO 2
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of
Po
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Total Emissions Continue to Climb…
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007.
CAGR: 2.0%
US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions 1980 - 2004
Aviation emissions will increase 65% by 2030 Total emissions will increase by 25% by 2030
The Future – A Larger Share of a Larger Pie
Source: Energy Information Administration
2005 2030
~ 4% ~ 5.5% AviationAviation
US CO2 Emissions 2005 vs. 2030
60Source: London Climate Action Plan 2007
Aviation Impact varies…London
Climate Change – A Blessing?
“Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawl…many of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change” Canadian Environmental Grantmaker’s Network
Reaching a Target – takes an ARROW!
1. Assess
2. Reduce Carbon, Waste and Cost
3. Renewable Energy
4. Offset the balance
5. Win over governments, customers, employees and investors – tell positive stories
The PNWER Opportunity?
In a global market, the region has more to gain from solving this issue together than by going solo.
We depend on each other more than we realize. There is an urgent need to collaborate and
share. PWNER could be the catalyst and enabler for
that collaboration Common methodologies, standard
measurements, educational tools, information resources.
What can and must tourism do?
Play its part in reducing its carbon footprint Recognize its past growth has been based on
relatively cheap or zero input costs Adjust to the fact that there are physical limits
imposed by the very nature we use to promote our business
Prepare for a low carbon economy Develop practical but honest sustainable strategies
that a). reduce impacts; and b). increase yields. Re-frame growth in terms of value – stop selling
our land and ourselves short.
The InterVISTAS Group
InterVISTAS Consulting Vancouver, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Montréal
InterVISTAS-ga2 Washington DC, Chicago
InterVISTAS-EU London
Aviation, Tourism consulting 70 team members Broad range of marketing, security, facilitation, planning, economics
and environmental services Sustainable Tourism Strategies for Destinations & enterprises Carbon audits
ContactJoe Kelly Anna PollockJoe_Kelly@interVISTAS.com Anna_Pollock@interVISTAS.com
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