Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions

• 1. Tourism and Climate Change: Issues, Trends and Solutions Presentation to PNWER Summit, 2008, Vancouver, July 22, 2008Anna Pollock, Executive Consultant, Environmental Services Inter VISTASConsulting Inc.

2. Paper available from:www.theicarusfoundation.com Background Resource 3. The Science Tourism is both a victim and a contributor to climate change Tourism: Is itpart of the problem or the solution? Dr. Pachauri, Head of IPCC & Co-winner of Nobel Peace Prize 4. Whats at Stake? Tourism in PWNER 5. Tourism in Pacific Northwest USA Source: TIA: www.poweroftravel.org SPENDING (Billion) TAX (billion)EMPLOYMENT PAYROLL (billion) ALASKA $1.6 $.271 23,500 $0.681 WASHINGTON $10.1 $1.7 104,700 $2.5 OREGON $ 6.7 $0.9 77,700 $1.5 IDAHO $ 2.7 $0.428 22,400 $0.392 MONTANA $ 2.4 $0.261 26,000 $0.375 TOTAL$23.5 $3.597 254,300 $5.461 6. Tourism in Western Canada SPENDING (Billion) TAX (billion)EMPLOYMENT British Columbia $9.8 266,000 Alberta $ 5.3 180,000 Yukon $ 0.164 1900 Saskatchewan $1.4 60,000 TOTAL$16.54 507,000 7. Tourism as Clusters, as Network Source: Oregon Strategic Plan 8. Employment Revenues Taxes Talent Community rejuvenation Environmental Stewardship 1960s 1980s 1990s 2010+ Changing Role & Value of Tourism 9. What do members have in common? Tourism in PWNER 10. Adventure, Eco, Nature, Wildlife

• Wildlife viewing worth $1 billion in Washington state

• Wilderness tourism generated $1.5 billion in direct and indirect spendin British Columbia, supported 2200 businesses

• High yield, affluent, educated clientele

11. Market Appeal 12. Market Appeal 13. Market Appeal 14. Market Appeal 15. Market Appeal 16. Market Appeal 17. Ecological Diversity 18. Population Growth & Change 19. Tourism Growth In Washington state, travel spending has increased annually between 2002 and 2007 . 20. Optimism 21. Fragility

• These plus 22 other mammals and 540 otherspecies are at significant risk of extinction in BC

22. Climate Change Eco-Literacy 23. Global Carbon Emissions 24. Global Carbon Concentrations 25. Global Temperatures Rising 26. Just how warm do we want to be?

• "If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, substantial global impacts will occur, such as species extinctions, and millions of people will be at risk from drought, hunger, flooding.

• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

+2C (+ 0.6 ) 27. A Matter of Urgency

• If there is no action before 2012, its too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.

28. Source of the Problem 29. Wild Cards & Positive Feedback Loops

• Attitude of humility needed

• • Albedo effect

• • Methane

• • Deforestation

• • Ocean currents

30. Its Getting Worse Not Better 31. Its Getting Worse Not Better Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences(PNAS), published October 25, 2007 32. Earths waste absorption capacity deteriorating Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO 2globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions. Value= 0.5 trillion 18% loss of efficiency 33. The West is Particularly Vulnerable When compared to the 20 thCentury average, the West has experienced an increase in average temperature during the last 5 years that is 70% greater than the world as a whole.NRDC, March 2008 34. Scope of Impacts on Business 35. Physical Impacts 36. Precipitation 37. Landscapes 38. Business Viability

• Loss of business

• Risk Management

• Cost control

• Increased insurance

• Adaptation expenses

39. Convergence of Threats 40. Growing Public Concern 41. Traveling with a Guilty Conscious?

• "Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.

• "Sin is not just a restricted list ofmoral mistakes. It is living a life turnedin on itself where people ignore theconsequences of their actions."

• - Richard Chartre

• Bishop of London

42. Changing Consumer Values

• 2007 the tipping point in consumer awareness

• One trip from England to New Zealand burns 60% more carbon than a trip to Scotland will this affect travel patterns?

• 43 million US travellers are concerned about green issues

• 24% said air travel should be avoided to help preserve the environment

• 26% would pay a premium of up to 10% for an eco-friendly flight

• Still not clear how much behavior is changing asonly 3% however, have purchased carbon off-sets

43. Changing Business Travel Patterns

• Big business is acting quickly

• All public companies required to disclose carbon footprint as part of its CSR report

• Companies with huge travel budgets like PWC, Siemens etc are targeting a 20% reduction in air travel for each staff member.

• Green meetings and Incentive travel next to be seriously affected

• Reducing internally first, then delving into supply chain

44. Whats the Cure? Reduce25%of 1990 levels by2020 Reduce80%of 1990 levels by2050 45. Government Responses

• Reduction Targets all levels of government

• BCs new carbon tax

• The EU plans to add aviation to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) starting in 2012 for intra-EU flights and all flights departing from or arriving in the EU

• Cap & trade legislation inevitable regionally if not nationally

• Starting in 2009, the UK intends to replace air passenger duty with a per flight tax based on carbon emissions

46. Source: UNWTO, 2007 Tourisms Contribution Sub-Sectors CO 2(Mt) Air transport 522 40% Car transport 418 32% Other transport 39 3% Accommodation 274 21% Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 100% Total World(IPCC 2007) 26,400 Tourism Contribution 5 % 47. Growth vs Emissions Reductions Volume Growth 4 x increase1990-2020 Emissions Reductions 25% reduction, 1990-2020 48. So How is Tourism Perceived as Responding?

• Poorly!

49. So How is Tourism Responding? 50. PREPAREDNESS Low High RISK High Low Source: KPMG Transport, Tourism, Aviation in Danger Zone 51. National or RegionalCarbon Footprints 52. Whistlers Carbon Footprint

• • Aviation emissions account for ~78% of all emissions

• • Internal GHG reductions dwarfed by air travel emissions

Source: Energy Information Administration Visitor Travel to/from Whistler Whistlers CO2 Emissions 2030 ~ 14% ~ 86% Internal 53. Aviation Emissions Growing Faster than Total Emissions US CO2 Emissions Annualized Growth Rate 1980 - 2004 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% Sources:US Bureau of Transportation StatisticsNational Transportation Statistics 2007 and OECD 54. Some Good NewsEfficiency Gains Source:US Bureau of Transportation StatisticsNational Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: -1.9%US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions per Passenger Mile 1980 2004 55. From Winglets to?Source:Airliners.nethttp://www.airliners.net/open.file/1060096/L/ 56. From Oil to Algae 57. However, Rapid Growth in Air Travel Source:US Bureau of Transportation StatisticsNational Transportation Statistics 2007 . CAGR: 4.0%US Domestic Air Travel 1980 - 2004 58. Total Emissions Continue to Climb Source:US Bureau of Transportation StatisticsNational Transportation Statistics 2007 .CAGR: 2.0%US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions 1980 - 2004 59. The FutureA Larger Share of a Larger Pie

• • Aviation emissions will increase 65% by 2030

• • Total emissions will increase by 25% by 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration US CO2 Emissions 2005 vs. 2030 2005 2030 ~ 4% ~ 5.5% Aviation Aviation 60. Aviation Impact variesLondon Source: London Climate Action Plan 2007 61. Climate Change A Blessing?

• Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawlmany of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change Canadian Environmental Grantmakers Network

62. Reaching a Target takes an ARROW!

• A ssess

• R educe Carbon, Waste and Cost

• R enewable Energy

• O ffset the balance

• W in over governments, customers, employees and investors tellpositivestories

63. The PNWER Opportunity?

• In a global market, the region has more to gain from solving this issuetogetherthan by going solo.

• We depend on each other more than we realize.

• There is an urgent need tocollaborate and share.

• PWNER could be the catalyst and enabler for that collaboration

• Common methodologies, standard measurements, educational tools, information resources.

64. What can and must tourism do?

• Play its part in reducing its carbon footprint

• Recognize its past growth has been based on relatively cheap or zero input costs

• Adjust to the fact that there are physical limits imposed by the very nature we use to promote our business