Najafi h 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34

Climate Change:

Adding Fuel to the Fire of Iran’s

Inter-provincial Water Conflicts?

Husain Najafi

University of Tehran, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

1

Outline

Iran’s water sector issues

Current water related challenges at regional level

Future projections under climate change

Exit strategies

Concluding remarks

2 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change

Iran’s Water Sector Issues

Driving forces and impacts

3

Present Past

Problem symptom: Changes from

past to present

In recent ten years, Iran is experiencing significant water challenges that

have turned water security to a national priority at the moment.

I. Decreasing trend in inter-annual

precipitation in many rain gauges

II. Increasing evapotranspiration

III. Decreasing available surface water

resources

4

BC

M

Main driving forces of current crisis

are

(1) Climate variability and change

Changes in precipitation patterns

Hotter climate

(2) Human induced

Population growth

Inefficient water consumptive sectors (mainly agriculture)

Aggressive unsustainable developments

Governance structure (e.g. provincial decision making rather than at the

watershed scale)

5

Impacts of current water crises

Final Destination of resources under

self-optimizing attitudes of users

Garrett Hardin (1968) Tragedy of Commons

6

Current water related challenges at regional level

7

Two current hot spots water

problems we are now facing …

1) Lake Urmia

2) Karkheh river basin

serious water quantity and quality issues

“The government blames the current crisis on the changing climate,

frequent droughts, believing that water shortages are periodic”.

(Madani, 2014)

8

Categorized based on the severity of the problem and quantitative water resources challenges in 2001 (Source: Iranian MOE, unpublished data)

9

Categorized based on the severity of the problem and quantitative water resources challenges In 2021 (Source: Iranian MOE, unpublished data)

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Lake Urmia

The largest enclosed body of water in

the north-western Iran

Shared between three littoral provinces

namely

• Kurdistan

• Eastern Azerbaijan

• Western Azerbaijan

11 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change

The lake is shrinking…

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Thirteen main rivers flowing into the lake are all experiencing decreasing surface runoffs in recent fifteen

years ranging from 26 to 70 percent compared to their long term average of 1969-1999.

13 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change

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01974 1984 1994 2004 2014

Gro

un

dw

ater

lev

el d

rop

Figure 6 Cumulative groundwater level drop at the Lake Urmia River Basin (Source: MOE, 2014, unpublished data)

14 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change

Karkheh river basin characteristics

Province Urban Rural Total Population Population

(%)

Illam 45950 98176 144126 4

Khuzestan 95322 133917 229239 6

Kurdistan 52907 19424 72331 2

Kirmanshah 1177373 368260 1545633 42

Lorestan 595466 437973 1033439 28

Hamadan 373157 278123 651280 18

Total 2340175 1335873 3676048 100

15

Water resources challenges

in the Karkheh river basin

Time series of potential

renewable water at Pay pol gauge

(from 1953-2012)

Changes in observed precipitation

(from 1953-2012)

MC

M

16

Outline Water Resources Challenges from spatiotemporal

perspectives…

Iran’s water sector issues

Future Projections under Climate Change

Exit Strategies Iranian policy makers are now

following

Concluding remarks

17

Given the cascade of uncertainties associated with climate projection, It is hard to make a firm judgment about the level of increase or decrease for the two watersheds water availability (under climate change)

But we have already seen decreasing trend of precipitation and run off in many gauges…

Observed runoff (Mean) and the future projection of runoff by A2 and B1 scenarios

(Razmara et al., 2013)

Monthly distribution of river flow under representative climate change

scenarios (Davtalab et al., 2014)

Lake Urmia Karkheh

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Developing new laws, legislations and guidelines

for water resources planning and management

To create water markets

To enable environment capacity development which includes

good governance

launching a specialized working group to address climatic

change related predicaments

To use other national/regional experiences in how to implement

practical solutions for sectoral efficient water management

Exit Strategies Iranian policy

makers are now following

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Conflicts over shared surface water resources will be

inevitable if business as usual scenario is continuing.

Then other sources will be sought after such as

groundwater.

Emerging catastrophic environmental problems (land

subsidence, lakes shrinkage and so on…)

Food and water security related challenges

Conclusion

20 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change

Any question?

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Email address: husain.najafi@ut.ac.ir