Shi p 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101

Climate change risk and its integrated governance Peijun Shi1,2,3, Shao Sun1,2,3,Qian Ye1 Daoyi Gong1, Tao Zhou1

1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology

2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education

3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, MoCA & MoE

Beijing Normal University Beijing, China

[email protected]

Thursday 09 July 2015 15:00 - 16:30

3324 - Paradigms for Building Resilience from Cross-scale Integrated Risk Governance Perspectives

UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 101, Block 24/34

Our Common Future Under Climate Change 06-09 July，2015，Paris

mailto:[email protected]

Contents Climate Change and Environmental Risk

Climate Change Risk

Regionalization of Climate Change

Integrated Risk Governance of Climate Change


Climate Change Risk



Response to environmental risks caused global changes is the major issue facing the sustainable development.

Snow and ice storms in south China in 2008

Mississippi River floods in the United States in 2011 Drought disasters in south China in 2011

Examples of major disasters related to climate (precipitation and temperature)

Hurricane Katrina disaster in the United States in 2005

Global Changes and Environmental Risks - Ecological Risks

Source: Marko,et al. PNAS, 2006.

Forest Fires

Fresh Water

Supply

Biological

Diversity

Level of Risks

Grain Yield Change Percentage (to 2050 from now)

World Bank: In 2050, grain production will decline in the world in the case of

constant current mode of agricultural production and crop varieties.

Global Changes and Environmental Risks - Risks of Grain Production

Source: The World Bank, 2008

China is an

area at a

higher risk

level

主要道路和高速公路

目前百年一遇洪水洪范区

2020s百年一遇洪水洪范区



主要道路和高速公路

目前百年一遇洪水洪范区




100-year flood inundated areas in New York under different future scenarios

Source: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci, 2010

Global Changes and Environmental Risks – Cases of Climate Change Risks in New York

Global Climate

Changes

SERS greenhouse

gas emissions

Global climate

model simulations

Regional Climate

Change Information

Observational data

Quantitative

prediction based on

the global weather

patterns

Qualitative

forecasting based on

the global weather

patterns

Climate Risk

Factors

To identify climate

disaster causing

serious impacts on

the infrastructure in

New York to assess

the risks of critical

infrastructure

Examples of the Climate Variables Used to Establish Assessment Indicators

Tempe

rature

Mean

Temperature

Central Park

Kennedy Airport

LaGuadia Airport

Up to Now

from 1876

Up to Now

from 1948

Up to Now

from 1947

Value of Day/

Month

Value of Day/

Month

Value of Day/

Month

NCDC

NCDC

NCDC

Number of days at

temperature >X

Number of days at

temperature < X

Central Park

LaGuadia Airport

Up to Now

from 1944

Up to Now

from 1948

Value of Month

Value of Month

NCDC

NCDC

Precipi

tation

Total

Precipitation

Central Park

Kennedy Airport

LaGuadia Airport

Up to Now

from 1876

Up to Now

from 1949

Up to Now

from 1947

Value of Day/

Month

Value of Day/

Month

Value of Day/

Month

NCDC

NCDC

NCDC

Number of days at

precipitation >X Central Park Up to Now

from 1944

Value of Month NCDC

Sea level

Rise and

Coastal

Storms

Sea Level Rise-

Mean Water Level

The Battery

Sandy Hook

New Jersey

Up to Now

from 1856

Up to Now

from 1932

Value of Month

Value of Month

NOS

NOS

Hurricane Central Park Up to Now

from 1900

Value of Day NCDC


Climate Change Risk



Respond to the climate change has becomes a global issues which highly concerned by dignitaries, scientists, governments and the public in countries of the world. Impact of climate change to human sustainable development has both advantageous side and disadvantageous side. How to evaluate its disadvantageous side from the essence of climate change and to seek its integrated governance measures was highly

concerned by IPCC, which published a special report in early 2012:Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, SREX

Climate Change Risk

This article focus on the essence of climate change, and presents that the climate change risk (CCR) is actually the sum total of negative effects of human sustainable development, which is caused by extreme events in particular period, fluctuation of characteristic value and variation tendency, in other words, extreme risk (ER), fluctuation Risk (FR) and tendency Risk (TR), that is, CCR=ER+FR+TR.

Therefore, the extreme weather events and disasters focused by IPCC-SREX cannot reveal the systemic feature thoroughly of CCR, which may mislead the government to establish defensive measures comprehensively.

ER is a kind of certainty risks, FR is a kind of uncertainty risks, TR is a kind of trade-off risks.

Climate Change Risk

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

环境变量

时间

Theoretical Modalities & Risks of Environmental Variables

Trends & Fluctuations


Climate Change Risk



Temperature Changes in Beijing

Extreme high temperature events

（daily maximum temperature

>34.5℃ days）

1～7

8～14

15～21

22～28

Air temperature change and extreme high

temperature events frequency of Beijing temperature(℃)

year

Tendency value：0.41℃/10a (mean value 12.2℃)

Fluctuation value：-0.05℃/10a (mean value 0.45℃)

Events frequency value：0.5 times/10a (mean value 9.6 times)

Extreme precipitation events

（daily precipitation >50mm days）

1～2

3～4

5～6

Air temperature change and extreme

precipitation events frequency of Beijing Precipitation (mm)

year

Tendency value：-44mm/10a (mean value 590mm)

Fluctuation value：-26mm/10a (mean value 154mm)

Events frequency value：-0.3 times/10a (mean value 2 times)

Precipitation Changes in Beijing

World Climate Regionalization

Köppen,

Wladimir Peter

W. P. Köppen. Das Geographisca System der Klimate. In: Handbuch der klimatologie,

edited by W. P. Köppen and R.Geiger. Berlin: Gebrüder Borntraeger, 1936. 1-44.

World Climate Regionalization

Alan H. Strahler

《Introducing Physical

Geography》

A. H. Strahler, A. N. Strahler. Global climates. In: Introducing Physical Geography, 5th Edition. New

York: John Wiley & Sons, 2010. 218-263.

World Regionalization of Climate Change Existing climate regionalization aims to characterize the regional differences

in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes.

However, the regionalization of the climate state based on the mean of

climate elements cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change under

the background of global climate change.

We desperately need a set of classification methods in favor of identifying

regional difference of climate change and its impact to achieve climate change

regionalization and reveal different types of disaster and environmental risk

possibly incurred from climate change in different regions, so as to put

forward adaptation measures suitable to local conditions.

Tendency Rate of Temperature Change of China（1961-2010）

Shi Peijun,Sun Shao,Wang Ming,Li Ning,Wang Jing'ai,Jin YunYun,Gu XiaoTian,Yin WeiXia.Climate change regionalization in

China (1961–2010)..Science China:Earth Sciences, 2014 57(11):2676–2689.

http://www.espre.cn/teacher/pro-shi/papers/articals/Climate change regionalization in China (1961%E2%80%932010).pdf




Tendency Rate of Precipitation Change of China（1961-2010）

Shi Peijun,Sun Shao,Wang Ming,Li Ning,Wang Jing'ai,Jin YunYun,Gu XiaoTian,Yin WeiXia.Climate change regionalization

in China (1961–2010)..Science China:Earth Sciences, 2014 57(11):2676–2689.





Fluctuation Characteristic Rate of Temperature Change of China（1961-2010）







Fluctuation Characteristic Rate of Precipitation Change of China（1961-2010）







Basic principles keep integrate boundary of state (province) administrative unit of countries in

the world

leading factors.

spatial distribution continuity

combination of key indicator and auxiliary indicator

consistency of large-scale terrain unit

Topography of China

County-level Administrative Division of China

Climatic Change Regionalization of China （1961-2010）







Temperature fluctuation

Spatial distribution of temperature fluctuation values (1961–2010) Temperature data are from Monthly Mean Surface Dataset (2.5° resolution, from 01/1948 to present) of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis provided by U.S. National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Precipitation tendency

Spatial distribution of precipitation tendency values (1961–2010) Monthly Dataset (0.5° resolution, from 01/1901 to present) of GPCC provided by U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, while precipitation

data of Antarctic continent is filled by NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Dataset because of missing data.

Precipitation fluctuation

Spatial distribution of precipitation fluctuation values (1961–2010) Temperature data are from Monthly Mean Surface Dataset (2.5° resolution, from 01/1948 to present) of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis provided by U.S. National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

World Regionalization of Climate Change

Regionalization unit

Comparable geographic of world Use state or province level administrative regionalization of countries as the basic unit

Global Land Elevation

Global Land Elevation Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation dataset (1 kilometer resolution) provided by the United States Geological Survey (https://lta.cr.usgs.gov/GTOPO30).

World Regionalization of Climate Change (1961-2010)


World Regionalization of Climate Change (1961-2010)


Confidence Test

Classified statistic of proportion of area under different confidences among indicators (%)

Classification of Modes

Classification of Modes of Climate Change of the world (1961-2010) Tendency and fluctuation of temperature and precipitation of the world are identified under the given confidence of 90% (significance level 0.1)

Modes of Temperature Change

（area proportion (%)）

Modes of Precipitation Change

（area proportion (%)）

Figure SPM.4B | Projected return periods for a daily precipitation event that was exceeded in the late 20th century on average once during a 20-year period (1981–2000). A decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme precipitation events (i.e., less time between events on average). The box plots show results for regionally averaged projections for two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late 20th century, and for three different SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) (see legend). Results are based on 14 GCMs contributing to the CMIP3. The level of agreement among the models is indicated by the size of the colored boxes (in which 50% of the model projections are contained), and the length of the whiskers (indicating the maximum and minimum projections from all models). See legend for defined extent of regions. Values are computed for land points only. The ‘Globe’ inset box displays the values computed using all land grid points. [3.3.2, Figure 3-1, Figure 3-7]


Climate Change Risk



For this reason, humans must establish corresponding defensive measures based on the integrated characteristics of CCR, improving mitigation to response ER, improving resilence to response FR and improving adaptation to response TR. Only by improving mitigation, resilience and adaptation of human beings gradually to response climate change and form cohesion of integrated CCR governance, can we promote sustainability comprehensively from local, regional to global under the background of climate change.


Peijun Shi, Qian Ye, Guoyi Han et al. Living with global climate diversity— suggestions on international governance for coping with

climate change risk. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 3(4)(2012):177-183.

http://www.espre.cn/teacher/pro-shi/papers/articals/Living with global climate diversity suggestions on internationa governance.pdf





A Improving mitigation to response ER

we propose to establish “global integrated disaster risk governance paradigm” under the development strategy for “living with global climate diversity . Global Integrated Disaster Risk Governance

Paradigm under Development Strategy for Living

with Global Climate Diversity

Peijun Shi, Qian Ye, Guoyi Han et al. Living with global climate diversity— suggestions on international governance for coping with

climate change risk. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 3(4)(2012):177-183






Disaster Risk Reduction Information and Technology Integration

Platform（Japan）

灾

害

基

本

情

况

灾害种类

灾害发生时间

受灾区域

台风登陆地点、编号

地震震中经、纬度地震震级、烈度

灾

情

受灾人口

因灾死亡人口

因灾失踪人口

因灾伤病人口

被困人口

饮水困难人口

受淹县城

农作物受灾面积

农作物绝收面积

毁坏耕地面积

人口受灾情

况

农作

物受灾

情况

倒塌房屋间数倒塌居民住房间数

损坏房屋间数

因灾死亡大牲畜

直接经济损失农业直接经济损失

倒塌居民住房户数损失情

况

救灾工

作

救济情

况

救灾

资金

、物资投入

情况

需口粮救济人口需救济粮数量

需衣被救济人口需救济衣被数量

需救济伤病人口

需恢复住房间数需恢复住房户数

已救济口粮人口已安排救济粮数量

已救济衣被人口已救济衣被数量

已救济伤病人口

已恢复住房间数已恢复住房户数

已安排口粮救济款

已安排衣被救济款

已安排治病救济款

已安排恢复住房款

紧急转移安置人口

本级财政救灾款支出上级财政救灾款支出

本级救灾物资投入折款上级救灾物资投入折款

本级直接接收救灾捐赠资金

本级直接接收救灾捐赠物资折款

本级接收上级救灾捐赠资金

本级接收上级救灾捐赠物资折款

中央财政救灾款支出

中央财政救灾物资投入折款

《自然灾害情况统计快(核)报》填报的指标《（半）年报》填报的指标两类报表均填报的指标

省、地、县各级财政救灾款支出

省、地、县各级财政救灾物资投入折款

灾害发生时段

Timely Information of District Share Platform (IRiskNet.cn)

Establishing and Improving the CCR

Warning Information Integration Platform

Monitoring.

Warning and

Forecasting

System

Prepareness and

Manage System

Material Storage and Security

System

CCR Warning

Information

Integration

Platform

Governments/Global

Reinsurance/ Global

Capital Market

Central and Local

Governments/

Insurers

Central and Local

Governments

Community and

Local Governments

Size of

Loss

Minor Medium Large Catastrophic

1/10a

1/50a

1/100a

Events

C Improving adaptation to response TR

Disaster risk sharing mechanism according to CCR

From government perspective, globally, give full play to the rule of the United Nations, establish the global CCR governance partnership based on the current UN-ISDR framework.

From enterprises perspective, especially transnational enterprises, after continuing to increase prevention capacity should actively participate in CCR insurance, scientifically define acceptable CCR, controllable CCR and proportion of CCR to be transferred.

From public service development perspective, research and technical personnel of research institutes and universities engage in disaster prevention and reduction, strengthen the in-depth studies of CCR, strive for a milestone breakthrough in such aspects as predicting, forecasting and early warning, improving the information service system and developing different engineering and non-engineering technologies for CCR governance and make more contributions in benefiting the entire mankind.

From individual perspective, by diversified means such as education, propaganda and practice, completely enhance the consciousness for disaster prevention and reduction, master basic common knowledge for disaster prevention and disaster escape skills, completely cultivate the safety culture and systematically improve the self-rescuing and mutual-rescuing capacity and level, and actualize the ideal for the world full of love and bright and colorful life.

B Improving resilence to response FR

Peijun Shi, Jiabing Shuai, Wenfang Chen, Lili Lu. Study on Large-Scale Disaster Risk Assessment and

Risk Transfer Models. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2010,1(2): 1-8.

http://www.espre.cn/teacher/pro-shi/papers/articals/1-2-1-IJDRS Shi et al.pdf





Disaster Risk Maps of CHINA and World

The China Agriculture Policy Insurance Experimentation

Program (CAPIEP)

Governments initiate

Market operation

Voluntary insurance

Joint effort

Establishing and Improving “Financial Management System of LSD Risk”

Family

Community

Institutes

Governments

Local

Regional

Global

Place

Integration

Coordination

Cooperation

Construction

Communication

mitigation

adaptation

Government: Development and Disaster Reduction (Governance)

Community: Safety Construction (Legislation)

Institute: Risk Transformation (Mechanism)

Family: Risk Awareness (Education)

D Forming integrated CCR governance paradigm

Consilience Model for Integrated CCR Governance

服务于我国针对全球变化

与环境风险的关系、制

定科学有序的应对环境

变化政策

服务于我国提高环境变化

总体的预估水平和能力

服务于解决我国以制度设

计为核心的综合环境风

险防御的范式问题

诊断全球变化对环境风险的影

响机理与途径（如何影响？）

解决渐发-突发综合环境风险

评估中量化、模拟与预估的

问题（影响多少？）；

揭示中国环境风险在全球环境

风险水平中的位置，构建应

对范式（责任多大？）

科学研究国家需求

科学问题关键、国家需求紧迫、国际竞争激烈，且我国已有较好研究基础！

总结（史培军） Thank you!

谢谢