Climate Change: Adding Fuel to the Fire of Iran’s Inter-provincial Water Conflicts? Husain Najafi University of Tehran, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran 1
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Climate Change:
Adding Fuel to the Fire of Iran’s
Inter-provincial Water Conflicts?
Husain Najafi
University of Tehran, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
1
Outline
Iran’s water sector issues
Current water related challenges at regional level
Future projections under climate change
Exit strategies
Concluding remarks
2 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
Iran’s Water Sector Issues
Driving forces and impacts
3
Present Past
Problem symptom: Changes from
past to present
In recent ten years, Iran is experiencing significant water challenges that
have turned water security to a national priority at the moment.
I. Decreasing trend in inter-annual
precipitation in many rain gauges
II. Increasing evapotranspiration
III. Decreasing available surface water
resources
4
BC
M
Main driving forces of current crisis
are
(1) Climate variability and change
Changes in precipitation patterns
Hotter climate
(2) Human induced
Population growth
Inefficient water consumptive sectors (mainly agriculture)
Aggressive unsustainable developments
Governance structure (e.g. provincial decision making rather than at the
watershed scale)
5
Impacts of current water crises
Final Destination of resources under
self-optimizing attitudes of users
Garrett Hardin (1968) Tragedy of Commons
6
Current water related challenges at regional level
7
Two current hot spots water
problems we are now facing …
1) Lake Urmia
2) Karkheh river basin
serious water quantity and quality issues
“The government blames the current crisis on the changing climate,
frequent droughts, believing that water shortages are periodic”.
(Madani, 2014)
8
Categorized based on the severity of the problem and quantitative water resources challenges in 2001 (Source: Iranian MOE, unpublished data)
9
Categorized based on the severity of the problem and quantitative water resources challenges In 2021 (Source: Iranian MOE, unpublished data)
10
Lake Urmia
The largest enclosed body of water in
the north-western Iran
Shared between three littoral provinces
namely
• Kurdistan
• Eastern Azerbaijan
• Western Azerbaijan
11 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
The lake is shrinking…
12
Thirteen main rivers flowing into the lake are all experiencing decreasing surface runoffs in recent fifteen
years ranging from 26 to 70 percent compared to their long term average of 1969-1999.
13 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
-10
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-2
-1
01974 1984 1994 2004 2014
Gro
un
dw
ater
lev
el d
rop
Figure 6 Cumulative groundwater level drop at the Lake Urmia River Basin (Source: MOE, 2014, unpublished data)
14 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
Karkheh river basin characteristics
Province Urban Rural Total Population Population
(%)
Illam 45950 98176 144126 4
Khuzestan 95322 133917 229239 6
Kurdistan 52907 19424 72331 2
Kirmanshah 1177373 368260 1545633 42
Lorestan 595466 437973 1033439 28
Hamadan 373157 278123 651280 18
Total 2340175 1335873 3676048 100
15
Water resources challenges
in the Karkheh river basin
Time series of potential
renewable water at Pay pol gauge
(from 1953-2012)
Changes in observed precipitation
(from 1953-2012)
MC
M
16
Outline Water Resources Challenges from spatiotemporal
perspectives…
Iran’s water sector issues
Future Projections under Climate Change
Exit Strategies Iranian policy makers are now
following
Concluding remarks
17
Given the cascade of uncertainties associated with climate projection, It is hard to make a firm judgment about the level of increase or decrease for the two watersheds water availability (under climate change)
But we have already seen decreasing trend of precipitation and run off in many gauges…
Observed runoff (Mean) and the future projection of runoff by A2 and B1 scenarios
(Razmara et al., 2013)
Monthly distribution of river flow under representative climate change
scenarios (Davtalab et al., 2014)
Lake Urmia Karkheh
18
Developing new laws, legislations and guidelines
for water resources planning and management
To create water markets
To enable environment capacity development which includes
good governance
launching a specialized working group to address climatic
change related predicaments
To use other national/regional experiences in how to implement
practical solutions for sectoral efficient water management
Exit Strategies Iranian policy
makers are now following
19
Conflicts over shared surface water resources will be
inevitable if business as usual scenario is continuing.
Then other sources will be sought after such as
groundwater.
Emerging catastrophic environmental problems (land
subsidence, lakes shrinkage and so on…)
Food and water security related challenges
Conclusion
20 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
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