Muddu s 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15

Prof. Sekhar Muddu Indian Institute of Science

AICHA Adaptation

of Irrigated Agriculture to

Climate CHAnge Retrieving relevant information for distributed modelling of

impact of Climate Change on water resources

IFCPAR/CEFIPRA 2013-2017

DST-INRA-metaprogram ACCAF

Our common future under climate change.

Session 2224 Agrarian and pastoral societies:

adaptative strategies and innovation

International Scientific Conference, 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

Recharge

Recharge

Pum

ping

Groundwater Model

Crop Model

Spatia

lisin

g c

ouple

d m

odel

Coupled STICS + AMBHAS-GW

2

GW

InflowDraft

Recharge

Sy h/tWater table fluctuations

GW

outflow

Recharge

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Runoff

θ/t

Groundwater

Model

Soil moisture

balance model

Soil moisture changes

GW

InflowDraft

Recharge


GW

outflow

Recharge

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Runoff

θ/t

Groundwater

Model

Soil moisture

balance model


GW

InflowDraft

Recharge


GW

outflow

Recharge

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Runoff

θ/t

Groundwater

Model

Soil moisture

balance model


Crop model

Calibration of the DHM and simulation of future scenarios

Characterization of the system for the distributed hydrological model – Estimation of soil

hydraulic properties, Calibration of crop & groundwater models, Scale issues for water

balance.

Future simulations of the coupled model- Would require cropping choice & ground water

pumping scenarios. 2

Estimation of Soil Hydraulic Properties using inversion

Inversion of Crop Model: Variables: Surface soil moisture [Surface soil moisture, Leaf Area Index (LAI) ] Parameters: Field Capacity, Wilting point and soil depth.

Inversion of crop model

Inversion model (GLUE) applied with FIVE crop

types to develop a map of soil hydraulic

properties in Berambadi WS using SAR data

(10-30 cm)

(50-150 cm)

(>150 cm)

3

Estimation of root zone SHP’s using satellite data

Crop model inversion method

Adaptation of the method to the catchment scale

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Esti

ma

ted

Val

ues

Observed Values

Field Capacity Layer-1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Esti

mat

ed V

alu

es

Observed Values

Field Capacity Layer-2

4

Major crops – Sunflower, Marigold, Sorghum, Maize, Turmeric = 64%

5

October 2013

Major crops – Sunflower, Marigold, Sorghum, Maize, Turmeric = 66%

September 2014

Comparison of ET from Energy & Water balance

0

5

10

15

20

25

May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

Water balance

Energy balance

Evap

otr

ansp

irat

ion

(m

m)

Eswar, Sekhar, Bhattacharya (2013) Journal of Geophysical Res- Atmosphere

450 484

9611071

681

997927

848 867 841

539652

806

-517 -473

24 25

-310

43

-136 -179 -206 -164

-444-317

-194

-800

-300

200

700

1200

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Mean

Rainfall (mm/y)

ET in mm/year

Rai

nfa

ll,(P

-ET

)

P-ET mm/y

0

2

4

6

8

25

-11

-20

01

02

-02

-20

02

15

-04

-20

02

26

-06

-20

02

06

-09

-20

02

17

-11

-20

02

25

-01

-20

03

07

-04

-20

03

18

-06

-20

03

29

-08

-20

03

09

-11

-20

03

17

-01

-20

04

29

-03

-20

04

09

-06

-20

04

20

-08

-20

04

31

-10

-20

04

09

-01

-20

05

22

-03

-20

05

02

-06

-20

05

13

-08

-20

05

24

-10

-20

05

01

-01

-20

06

14

-03

-20

06

25

-05

-20

06

05

-08

-20

06

16

-10

-20

06

27

-12

-20

06

06

-03

-20

07

17

-05

-20

07

28

-07

-20

07

08

-10

-20

07

19

-12

-20

07

26

-02

-20

08

08

-05

-20

08

19

-07

-20

08

29

-09

-20

08

10

-12

-20

08

18

-02

-20

09

01

-05

-20

09

12

-07

-20

09

22

-09

-20

09

03

-12

-20

09

10

-02

-20

10

23

-04

-20

10

04

-07

-20

10

14

-09

-20

10

25

-11

-20

10

02

-02

-20

11

15

-04

-20

11

26

-06

-20

11

06

-09

-20

11

17

-11

-20

11

25

-01

-20

12

06

-04

-20

12

17

-06

-20

12

28

-08

-20

12

08

-11

-20

12

17

-01

-20

13

30

-03

-20

13

10

-06

-20

13

21

-08

-20

13

01

-11

-20

13

Mean daily Evapotranspiration (mm)

Evap

otr

ansp

irat

ion

(mm

)

Mean (P-ET) = 200 mm For 10 years = 2000 mm = 2m GWL change = 2m / Sy =20 m

Groundwater Budget

underflowrunoffy QQETPhS ~ zero

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

27.5

30.0

Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14

Dep

th t

o g

rou

nd

wa

ter

(m)

# 131

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14

Dep

th t

o g

rou

nd

wa

ter

(m)

# 200 6

Crop detection (a new approach is investigated)

…

NDVI Crop Phase portrait

- Mturmeric

- Msorghum

- Msunflower

- Mmaize

- Mbeetroot

…

…

Bank of crop models

-Mmarigold

- Mbeans

- Mgarlic

- Mbanana

- Mchili

Global modeling technique

(Mangiarotti et al. 2012)

Models are tested

one by one

Gundal basin

32% sunflower 26% maize 12% marigold 11% beetroot 9% turmeric 8% soghum

11000 time series 35% could be used

7

1976-2005.

19 GCMs of CMIP-3 & 3 RCMs from CORDEX:

COSMO-CLM, RegCM4-LMDZ, and SMHI-RCA.

Climate projections to assess sustainability of current practices

Pumping: Business as usual

8

Climate projections to assess adaptation with realistic scenarios

Policy and market interventions that

promote environmentally sound

cropping practices e.g. Electricity

for Pumping, fertilizers and pesticides,

technology (drought tolerant varieties,

drip irrigation…)

Pumping: Reduced

9