Monsoon 2015 Foreshadow

102% OF LPA (+/-4%)NORMAL

JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER(LPA = 887mm)

PROBABALITY OF MONSOON

EXPECTED NORMAL VS FORECAST

LPAForecast164

174

289300

261258173

167

JUNE RAINFALL PROBABALITY

107% of LPA Normal LPA is 164 mm

JULY RAINFALL PROBABALITY

104% of LPA Normal LPA is 289 mm

AUGUST RAINFALL PROBABALITY

99% of LPA Normal LPA is 261 mm

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL PROBABALITY

96% of LPA Normal LPA is 173 mm

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYJUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER

Kerala, Konkan and Goa, Punjab, Haryana, west UP will receive good amounts of rainfall. Parts of Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema and south Karnataka are at some risk

Rainfall Departure:+2%

Poor Signal

Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYJUNE

Country as a whole will receive good amounts of rainfall indicating timely onset

Rainfall Departure:+7%

Poor Signal

Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYJULY

Normal rainfall expectedRainfall Departure:+4%

Poor Signal

Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYAUGUST

Slightly less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over southern peninsular India

Rainfall Departure:-1%

Poor Signal

Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYSEPTEMBER

Little less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over Central and southern India

Rainfall Departure:-4%

Poor Signal

Poor Signal

• A cyclonic vortex is expected to move along the west coast in the last week of April to first week of May causing rainfall all along the west coast and Gujarat

• In second week of May, another spell of rainfall over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is expected

• Pre-Monsoon activity is expected to be frequent and strong through out May in North and North-East India

• Monsoon onset is likely to be strong and early

EXPECTED PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES

PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES

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2012 2013 2014

Skymet Forecast 95% of LPA 103% of LPA 91% of LPA

Actual Monsoon 93% of LPA 105% of LPA 88% of LPA

PAST FORECAST PERFORMANCE

No Signal

No SignalNo SignalNo Signal

No Signal No Signal

Thank you