Weather-Monsoon Foreshadow 2015
Dec 30, 2015
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Monsoon 2015 Foreshadow
102% OF LPA (+/-4%)NORMAL
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER(LPA = 887mm)
PROBABALITY OF MONSOON
EXPECTED NORMAL VS FORECAST
LPAForecast164
174
289300
261258173
167
JUNE RAINFALL PROBABALITY
107% of LPA Normal LPA is 164 mm
JULY RAINFALL PROBABALITY
104% of LPA Normal LPA is 289 mm
AUGUST RAINFALL PROBABALITY
99% of LPA Normal LPA is 261 mm
SEPTEMBER RAINFALL PROBABALITY
96% of LPA Normal LPA is 173 mm
MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYJUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER
Kerala, Konkan and Goa, Punjab, Haryana, west UP will receive good amounts of rainfall. Parts of Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema and south Karnataka are at some risk
Rainfall Departure:+2%
Poor Signal
Poor Signal
MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYJUNE
Country as a whole will receive good amounts of rainfall indicating timely onset
Rainfall Departure:+7%
Poor Signal
Poor Signal
MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYJULY
Normal rainfall expectedRainfall Departure:+4%
Poor Signal
Poor Signal
MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYAUGUST
Slightly less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over southern peninsular India
Rainfall Departure:-1%
Poor Signal
Poor Signal
MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITYSEPTEMBER
Little less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over Central and southern India
Rainfall Departure:-4%
Poor Signal
Poor Signal
• A cyclonic vortex is expected to move along the west coast in the last week of April to first week of May causing rainfall all along the west coast and Gujarat
• In second week of May, another spell of rainfall over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is expected
• Pre-Monsoon activity is expected to be frequent and strong through out May in North and North-East India
• Monsoon onset is likely to be strong and early
EXPECTED PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES
PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES
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2012 2013 2014
Skymet Forecast 95% of LPA 103% of LPA 91% of LPA
Actual Monsoon 93% of LPA 105% of LPA 88% of LPA
PAST FORECAST PERFORMANCE
No Signal
No SignalNo SignalNo Signal
No Signal No Signal
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