1. NUNN FOR SENATE Critiquing a Political Campaign
2. Pre-Election SWOTAnalysis Italicized text = special
attention Strengths Nunn has an positive image. Is not a scary
liberal like Reid or Pelosi. Has a strong campaign staff, which
includes former operatives of Sen. Sam Nunn. Made an early
investment into microtargeting, which will help with voter
mobilization efforts. Weaknesses Nunn is not an inspiring speaker.
Nunn can seem like an uptight elitist. May have too many themes for
the campaign/spreading messages too thin. Opportunities Grew up
around politics. Nunn is unlikely to put her foot in her mouth.
Gives opportunity to speak publicly more often. Has an impressive
list of supporters in political and business community that she can
use as validators and leverage for fundraising and GOTV. Is mother
of young children. Can use to connect with middle-aged suburban
women. Has career that gives credibility to talk about
bipartisanship, etc. Father remains popular with older, white
Democrats. Changing demographics help with effort to expand
electorate. Threats Campaign plan was leaked to press in July. It
included a list of potential attacks against Nunn, including
service awards to inmates/terrorists, Nunn too liberal, Nunn is not
a real Georgian, and Nunn is a rubber stamp for Democrats. Nunn
lacks a southern accent, lending credence to the notion that she is
an elitist and not a real Georgian. Nationally, Democrats are on
the defensive this campaign season.
3. Pre-ElectionDemographicGoals
4. Pre-Election MessageBox Nunn on Nunn Issue Positions Raise
minimum wage Equal Pay for Equal Work Invest in infrastructure,
R&D, workforce development Invest in K-12 Expand Pre-K Make
college affordable Performance Partnered with Orin Hatch and Ted
Kennedy to pass the bipartisan Serve America Act Has been able to
work with Republicans and Democrats throughout her career
Qualifications/Bio Founder of Hands On Atlanta Was President and
CEO of Points of Light, President George H.W. Bushs legacy
organization Right person for problems? Believes innovative
thinking can help solve issues Will work to find common ground Will
bring decency back to Washington Is a bridge builder, not a bridge
burner Nunn on Perdue Issue Positions N/A Performance Is proud of
outsourcing American jobs Got rich while screwing over employees
Was fined for discriminating against female managers while CEO of
Dollar General Qualifications/Bio N/A Right person for problems?
Embraces attitude of gridlock/Is what is wrong in politics Is an
extremist who would rather play politics than help Georgians Green
text = clear contrast between the candidates Red text = clear
similarity in the candidates
5. Pre-ElectionMessageStatement I have spent my career helping
others. I have found that when people work together and are
innovative, their communities are successful. David Perdue,
however, has spent his career putting himself before his employees.
Now he wants to go to Washington to play politics. But Georgians
have made it clear; theyre tired of politics as usual. I believe
that we can end the gridlock, work together, and leave our children
a better Georgia.
6. GoodCommunicationKannapolisTVSpot
7. GoodCommunicationProudTVSpot
8. BadCommunicationProblemSolvingTVSpot
9. UglyCommunicationFergusonGOTVMailPiece
10. UglyCommunicationFergusonGOTVMailPiece
11. ElectionResults 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Millions
Black Vote White Vote Actual demographic turnout estimated using
exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent
12. ElectionResultsDidYoungVotersNotTurnOut? Young Voter
(18-29) Turnout as Percentage of Total Electorate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Early AJC Poll Actual Nunn Perdue What Happened? Many
possibilities, here are a couple: Nunn was able to turn young
liberal voters out but Perdue was able to close the gap by turning
out young conservative voters The polls were off a bit (we are
cutting margins close for statistic significance) Most likely a mix
of sorts Actual demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with
MOE of approximately 6 percent
13. ElectionResultsAbandonmentbyWhiteVoters Nunn White Vote 0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Nunn Goal Nunn "Base" Nunn Actual Millions
What Happened? Nunn likely handicapped by Obama approval ratings
Nunn was not even able to earn 30 percent of white vote among women
Earned 27 percent of vote from white women according to exit poll.
That amounts to 42 point loss to Perdue. Actual demographic turnout
estimated using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent
14. If we could go back in time.
15. RevisedSWOT Analysis Strengths Nunn has an positive image.
Is not a scary liberal like Reid or Pelosi. Has a strong campaign
staff, which includes former operatives of Sen. Sam Nunn. Nunn is a
great fundraiser (thanks to Sen. Nunn). Weaknesses Nunn can seem
like an uptight elitist. May have too many themes for the
campaign/spreading messages too thin. Nunn doesnt have the powerful
look. Nunn is too smart for her own good. Uses too flowery of
language and sounds wonkish at times. Opportunities Grew up around
politics. Nunn is unlikely to put her foot in her mouth. Gives
opportunity to speak publicly more often. Has an impressive list of
supporters in political and business community that she can use as
validators and leverage for fundraising and GOTV. Is mother of
young children. Can use to connect with middle-aged suburban women.
Threats Campaign plan was leaked to press in July. It included a
list of potential attacks against Nunn, including service awards to
inmates/terrorists, Nunn too liberal, Nunn is not a real Georgian,
and Nunn is a rubber stamp for Democrats. Fundamentals of the race
are AWFUL Nunn is being held back by Obamas low approval ratings
and the electorate looks more like 2010s than 2012s. Italicized
text = added in revision Bolded text = key moving forward
16. RevisedDemographicGoals Persuade 60,000 White Women 0 100
200 300 400 500 600 Thousands Supporting Nunn Supporting Perdue
Mobilize 85,000 Liberal Young Voters (18-29) 0 100 200 300 400 500
600 700 Thousands Turnout Actual demographic turnout estimated
using exit poll with MOE of approximately 6 percent Actual
demographic turnout estimated using exit poll with MOE of
approximately 6 percent
17. ResultswithRevisedDemographicGoals* 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
1.4 1.6 Actual Rev. Goals Millions Perdue Nunn 50 Percent + 1 *
Assumes the Libertarian candidate earns the same number of votes as
she did in the actual election (roughly 50,000)
18. Revised MessageBox Nunn on Nunn Issue Positions Raise
minimum wage Equal Pay for Equal Work Invest in infrastructure,
R&D, workforce development Invest in K-12 Expand Pre-K Make
college affordable Performance Has been able to work with
Republicans and Democrats throughout her career Qualifications/Bio
Was President and CEO of Points of Light, President George H.W.
Bushs legacy organization Right person for problems? Will work with
either party to help Georgians Is a bridge builder, not a bridge
burner Is trustworthy Reid is just as guilty of creating toxic
system as McConnell. Would vote for a different leader. Nunn on
Perdue Issue Positions Is anti-middle-class/anti-family. Doesnt
support raising the minimum wage, Pre-K Expansion, Equal Pay
legislation, or ways to make college affordable Performance Is
proud of outsourcing American jobs Got rich while screwing over
employees Qualifications/Bio N/A Right person for problems?
Embraces attitude of gridlock/Is what is wrong in politics You cant
trust him Green text = clear contrast between the candidates Red
text = clear similarity in the candidates Italicized text = added
in revision
19. MessageStatementComparison Pre-Election Message Statement I
have spent my career helping others. I have found that when people
work together and are innovative, their communities are successful.
David Perdue, however, has spent his career putting himself before
his employees. Now he wants to go to Washington to play politics.
But Georgians have made it clear; theyre tired of politics as
usual. I believe that we can end the gridlock, work together, and
leave our children a better Georgia. Revised Message Statement As a
mother of two young children, I know that we need leaders in
Washington who will put families before politics. David Perdue says
that he will work for Georgians in the Senate, but throughout his
career, he has shown that he only worries about himself and his
wallet. As your Senator, I will fight for our middle-class and find
common ground on issues we can all agree on, like investing in our
roads and bridges, ensuring Equal Pay for Equal Work, and making
sure everyone has the opportunity to attend college. Lets come
together, put families first and leave our children a better
Georgia.
20. RevisedEarnedMediaEvent Event Description As part of a
larger tour of Georgia colleges and universities, Nunn will host a
series of events at Georgia State University in Atlanta. Will
include meetings with student leaders, student media editorial
boards, and visits to a nearby restaurants or cafs that are popular
with students. Will target student, regional and state news
outlets. Will also encourage students to post or tweet photos of
themselves with Nunn. Press Release Excerpts Lead: The upcoming
election will decide the future of higher education in Georgia,
U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn told a group of Georgia State
students Monday. Nunn spent the day visiting Georgia States campus
and meeting with students. Quote from Nunn: The cost of college is
soaring, graduates have record levels of student debt and
middle-class families are getting a raw deal. I had the opportunity
to meet some incredibly talented students today and we all agreed
that students and their families deserve better.
21. Revised FacebookAd Will target liberal 17- 29 YOs for voter
registration/mobilizati on Will clickthrough to microsite that
features email list signup and link to online voter registration
page Is one of a series that will be field tested in early summer
Most successful ads will launch in massive effort in late
summer
22. Revised MailPlan Building onto the series of education mail
pieces with an introduction piece that shows Nunn with her family
Writing on other side of piece will be a short message from Nunn on
why, as a mother, she decided to run for office Will be sent to
30-50 YO white women
23. Revised TVSpot Replaced references about Nunns executive
experience with references about her motherhood Replaced call to
action, Lets vote to end the gridlock and get Washington working
again with this election, lets send a leader to Washington that we
can trust. Will target 30-50 YO white women
24. RevisedRadioSpots Focus of revised radio spots will be a
series of interviews with disgruntled Pillowtex and Dollar General
female employees. Will try to employ the style of a somber
interview with Terry Gross. Repeated theme throughout the series of
spots will be we just cant trust David Perdue. Will target 30-50 YO
white women, though significant overlap is expected in radio
spots.
25. ClosingThoughts To reiterate, statistics on demographic
turnout are far from perfect Will have more accurate figures when
the GA Secretary of State releases the formal election results.
Statistics used have margins of error, which are especially
relevant when dissecting numbers of narrow demographic groups
Overall, purpose was to get an idea of the fundamentals of the
race