Innovative
Health 2050Robert Madelin Innovative Healthcare Forum Senior Innovation Adviser, Warsaw,
European Commission. 22 April, 2016.
Where are we going?
4
• The Singularity
• The Matrix
• Cities
• Hyper-connected, trans-human, super-old…
People: the singularity is approaching!
Our cognitive and physical capabilities will be enhanced
with bio-technological add-ons. Cyborgs will perform
complex tasks like humans – they take over all routine
jobs, from agriculture to construction, from office to
industrial automation. We will live longer and healthier
because we apply pre-birth prevention, regenerate and
repair organs as needed. We will be able to learn, work
and play from the cradle to the grave.
Systems: "the matrix" is no longer fiction!
The internet will connect bits and atoms at the speed of
light. Its algorithms will orchestrate zillions of smart
objects, which will share zettabytes of data every month,
thus bridging the physical and virtual worlds
instantaneously. In such a scenario, prediction and
decision will be easier and faster than ever, based on
scientific evidence and people aspirations and on the
outcomes of experiments we do in a simulated world.
Energy positive
“Play & Rewind”
Trans-humanism
“Organic” computing
Hyper-connectivity
Bio-robotics
Beyond money
Beyond Global
Warming
Trust
Ownership
Synergetic
Economy Models
Participative
decision
Super-centenarians
Interim/beta status
Digital Futures
S&T
En
EcSo
PL
Go
Education
ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Quantum convergence
Privacy
Virtualisation
Art and creativity
Public-Private
convergence
Empowerment
Big-Data
Equality
Liquid
Welfares
Mobility
Resource sharing
Space exploration
Beyond povertyContinuous learning
Ethics
Migration
Regenerative and personalized
medicine
Culture
Leisure
Deep learning
Agile governance
Cities, villages and communities
How to maintain cities and villages as hubs for open streams of people and ideas to move between them?
How to develop a fair competitive landscape throughout the territory?
How to stimulate behavioural changes to balance the sustainability equation?
S&T
Ec
EnPL
So
Go
Decentralization
3D printing
Relocalisation
New service
economyPrevent
divides
Mobility
Internet
City-scape
New
materials
Migration
Smart
infrastructures
New
materials
Big Data
Water
Energy
Recyclable materials
Behavioral
changesShared economy
Lifestyles
Cradle-to-grave, work and play
Digital job markets?
Lifelong learning for all?
Liquid welfare?
S&T
Ec
EnPL
So
Go
Flexibility
Concurrent
sourcing
Liquid
welfare
Lifelong
learning
Technology
aversion
Shared jobs
WagesPersonal
aspirations
Nonlinear
turnover
Inter-
generational
clashes
Digital
Technologies
Lifelong
entrepreneurship
Hyper-connected human
How to ensure that hyper-connectivity is brought to all?
S&T
Ec
EnPL
So
Go
Broadband
networks
Organic
computing
IoT
Storage and Big
Data
Silo-ed
infrastructuresHyper-distributed
architectures
Open HW&SW
Regulations
Spectrum
Emerging
societal
applications
Prevent Divides Innovation
Trustworthy
technologies
Standards
Privacy Biz models
Super-centenarian societies
The opportunity of an ageing population?
Inter-generational dialogue?
Preventing new divides?
S&T
Ec
EnPL
So
Go
Nano-surgery
Inter-generational
dialogue
Ageing society
Super-
senses
Demographic
control
Regenerative
medicine
VPH
Productivity
growth
Wisdom
Families
Preventing
Divides Healthcare
Sustainability
Personalized
medicine
…TO… …POLICY VISION
EU Silver Economy Strategy (March 2015)
http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2
Vision: Turn the Demographic Change into an opportunity for Europe
What IS the… Silver economy?
• Money spent by consumers, companies, and governments on products, services and activities as people age
• Employment, personal income, corporate revenue and profit, personal and corporate paid taxes, and other macroeconomic multiplier benefits
• Productivity increases from changes that integrate the physical capabilities and behaviours of workers aged 50+
• Value creation by new 50+ entrepreneurs
• Tangible and intangible benefits of retaining older skilled workers
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https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/10/what-are-the-economic-implications-of-ageing-populations/
Life cycle of public spending and tax
Societal Challenge Major Opportunity
••• 20
Dependency Ratio
•From 1:4 to 1:2
•80+ doubles by 2025
Cost of Care
•Up by 4-8 % of GDP by 2025
Human Resources
•Shrinking work force•Lacking 20 million carers by 2020
Empowerment
•Active Ageing
New Care Models
•Home based
•Integrated care
•Large Efficiency gains
Growth and Markets
•3000 B€ wealth
•85 Million Consumers - and growing
• Large scale uptake of digital innovation
20
DEMOGRAPHICCHANGE
DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology
Potential Healthy Life Years - Retirement Age
Source: Eurostat, 2009
21
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
Healthy Life Years
average exit age
Max Healthy Life Years
Min Healthy Life YearsMax - MaltaMin - Slovakia
In early 2016 the European Commission launched an "Horizon Prize" that rewards the innovator or team who comes up with the best solution to address the challenges and opportunities of ageing and to improve the quality of life of senior citizens.
Their breakthrough will receive €2 million from Horizon 2020. http://europa.eu/!ck76Xw
2 Million € Prize
For best solution to the "ageing challenge"
HALF of EU enterprises provide mobile devices for business use
276.5 million EUR turnoverof EU B2C eCommerce (2012)
14% of EU SMEs selling online
29% of EU enterprises use e-Invoices
28% EU enterprises use Social media
38% EU venture capital is in ICT
DIGITAL BUSINESS
DIGITAL ECONOMY72% of EU individuals uses INTERNET regularly
900 000 estimated demand/supply gap by 2020
150 Million subscriptionsfixed Broadband
130 mobile subscriptions per 100 people
ICT drives 1/3rd
EU GDP growth 1995-2007
2.4% of workforce
+ 4.1% yearly employment growth
ICT professionals
55% work outside ICT sector
7% of GDPSize of the
digital economy
6% of Gov't R&D
is ICT
17% of business
R&Dby ICT sector
ICT sector
4.4%
ICT in Other Sectors
17% EU patentsare in ICT
• 3000 B€ Wealth by people over 65
• 85 Million Consumers over 65 and growing
• <15% ICT use
The Consumer Market
• Care costs ~1000 B€ /year in Europe (8 % GDP)
• 10% for innovation
~100 B€ /year
The Public Market
A SCALABLE MARKET
THE SILVER ECONOMY
Possible lead markets
• Innovative health and care services for active and healthy ageing
• Age friendly / smart homes
• Senior / off season tourism
• Age friendly cities
• Age friendly workplaces
National/regional initiatives (FR, DE, UK, PL,)
http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2
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THE SILVER ECONOMY
industrial successes
NEUROPROBES
PASTA
Technology ApplicationICT project
Smart Probes
Packaging ofElectronic threads
Spin-off: ATLAS Neuroengineering: www.atlasneuro.com/
In Vitro diagnostics portable
solutions
Molecular Biology on Chip/foil
In Vivo extra-cellular neurons
recording
Incubator: Primo1D: www.grain-incubation.com/projets/primo-1d/
Smart Textile with integrated
sensors, LED and RFID
LabonFoil
Spin-off: POC Microsolutions, www.pocmicrosolutions.com
Micro-Nano-Photo-Bio-ICT convergence
data miningfor predicting
short- and long-term health risks and trends
Big Data analysis enabling early detection and minimisation of risksassociated with ageing, e.g. cognitive impairment, frailty, depression and falls
to empower individuals in their everyday life
provide personalised intervention depending on
detailed user characteristicsand individual risks
generate knowledge on data-driven prediction and
personalised preventive treatments
Big Data in health & care
Europe-wide cooperation
30
• Horizon 2020
• Innovation Partnership
• Smart specialisation
• EIT KIC on Healthy living and Active Ageing
Poland: A moderate innovator
Source: The Innovation Scoreboard 2015: http://europa.eu/!Cm36XT
R & I Programmes
• H2020:
• http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en
• Calls 2016-2017:
• http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en
AAL: http://www.aal-europe.eu/
• IMI: http://www.imi.europa.eu/
• EDCTP: http://www.edctp.org/
• EIT KIC on Healthy living and Active Ageing
• http://eit.europa.eu/eit-community/eit-health
• Joint Programming Initiatives: http://www.neurodegenerationresearch.eu/
https://www.healthydietforhealthylife.eu/
http://www.jp-demographic.eu/
http://www.jpiamr.eu/
H2020 Priorities 2016-2017
•Infectious Diseases
•InnovFin
•Human
•biomonitoring
•Maternal and child health
•eHealth
•Active and
•healthy ageing
•Personalised
•medicine
European Innovation Partnership (2013-2016)
34
Innovation Partnership
InnoStars Partners (Poland):
Medical University Lodz (MUL) is amongthe largest state-owned medicaluniversities in Poland.
It has reached the leading position in theresearch areas such as: immunology,molecular biology, genetics of homeostasisdisorders, oncology, hypertension andendocrinology.
Nofer Institute of OccupationalMedicine (NIOM) in Lodz, Poland is ahighly specialized, scientific research unitthat has been co-creating occupationalhealth care system through carrying out itsscientific, therapeutic, expertise,implementation, training and publishingactivities.
EIT KIC FOR HEALTH
Funds available
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SMART SPECIALISATION
ERDF ESF
Health infrastructure€ 1369 mln
Active and healthy ageing
€ 336 mln
ICT solutions addressing the healthy active
ageing challenge
€ 350 mln
Enhancing access to
affordable, sustainable and
high quality€ 965 mln
Total€ 3020 mln
NUTS ID
Region/Country
Description
PL PolandBIOECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT: Healthy food (high quality and performance of production)
PL Poland
HEALTHY SOCIETY: Medical diagnosis and treatment of lifestyle diseases and personalized medicine
PL PolandHEALTHY SOCIETY: Medical engineering technologies, including biotechnologies
PL PolandHEALTHY SOCIETY: Production of medicinal products
Polish strategies