Innovative Health 2050 - OSOZ€¦ · gap by 2020 150 Million subscriptions fixed Broadband 130 mobile subscriptions per 100 people ICT drives 1/3rd EU GDP growth 1995-2007 2.4% of

Innovative

Health 2050Robert Madelin Innovative Healthcare Forum Senior Innovation Adviser, Warsaw,

European Commission. 22 April, 2016.

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• Where are we going?

• The silver opportunity

• The drivers of success

• How might the EU help?

Where are we going?

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• The Singularity

• The Matrix

• Cities

• Hyper-connected, trans-human, super-old…

People: the singularity is approaching!

Our cognitive and physical capabilities will be enhanced

with bio-technological add-ons. Cyborgs will perform

complex tasks like humans – they take over all routine

jobs, from agriculture to construction, from office to

industrial automation. We will live longer and healthier

because we apply pre-birth prevention, regenerate and

repair organs as needed. We will be able to learn, work

and play from the cradle to the grave.

Systems: "the matrix" is no longer fiction!

The internet will connect bits and atoms at the speed of

light. Its algorithms will orchestrate zillions of smart

objects, which will share zettabytes of data every month,

thus bridging the physical and virtual worlds

instantaneously. In such a scenario, prediction and

decision will be easier and faster than ever, based on

scientific evidence and people aspirations and on the

outcomes of experiments we do in a simulated world.

Science & Technology

Personal life

Society

Economy

Environment

Governance

Digital Futures

Energy positive

“Play & Rewind”

Trans-humanism

“Organic” computing

Hyper-connectivity

Bio-robotics

Beyond money

Beyond Global

Warming

Trust

Ownership

Synergetic

Economy Models

Participative

decision

Super-centenarians

Interim/beta status

Digital Futures

S&T

En

EcSo

PL

Go

Education

ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Quantum convergence

Privacy

Virtualisation

Art and creativity

Public-Private

convergence

Empowerment

Big-Data

Equality

Liquid

Welfares

Mobility

Resource sharing

Space exploration

Beyond povertyContinuous learning

Ethics

Migration

Regenerative and personalized

medicine

Culture

Leisure

Deep learning

Agile governance

Cities, villages and communities

How to maintain cities and villages as hubs for open streams of people and ideas to move between them?

How to develop a fair competitive landscape throughout the territory?

How to stimulate behavioural changes to balance the sustainability equation?

S&T

Ec

EnPL

So

Go

Decentralization

3D printing

Relocalisation

New service

economyPrevent

divides

Mobility

Internet

City-scape

New

materials

Migration

Smart

infrastructures

New

materials

Big Data

Water

Energy

Recyclable materials

Behavioral

changesShared economy

Lifestyles

Cradle-to-grave, work and play

Digital job markets?

Lifelong learning for all?

Liquid welfare?

S&T

Ec

EnPL

So

Go

Flexibility

Concurrent

sourcing

Liquid

welfare

Lifelong

learning

Technology

aversion

Shared jobs

WagesPersonal

aspirations

Nonlinear

turnover

Inter-

generational

clashes

Digital

Technologies

Lifelong

entrepreneurship

Hyper-connected human

How to ensure that hyper-connectivity is brought to all?

S&T

Ec

EnPL

So

Go

Broadband

networks

Organic

computing

IoT

Storage and Big

Data

Silo-ed

infrastructuresHyper-distributed

architectures

Open HW&SW

Regulations

Spectrum

Emerging

societal

applications

Prevent Divides Innovation

Trustworthy

technologies

Standards

Privacy Biz models

Super-centenarian societies

The opportunity of an ageing population?

Inter-generational dialogue?

Preventing new divides?

S&T

Ec

EnPL

So

Go

Nano-surgery

Inter-generational

dialogue

Ageing society

Super-

senses

Demographic

control

Regenerative

medicine

VPH

Productivity

growth

Wisdom

Families

Preventing

Divides Healthcare

Sustainability

Personalized

medicine

Number of chronicdisorders by age group

Source: Barnett et al. 2012. Lancet 370: 37-43.

Demographic change in a 'storm of crises'

The Silver Opportunity?

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SILVER ECONOMY: FROM… …MAINSTREAM DEBATE

…TO… …POLICY VISION

EU Silver Economy Strategy (March 2015)

http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2

Vision: Turn the Demographic Change into an opportunity for Europe

What IS the… Silver economy?

• Money spent by consumers, companies, and governments on products, services and activities as people age

• Employment, personal income, corporate revenue and profit, personal and corporate paid taxes, and other macroeconomic multiplier benefits

• Productivity increases from changes that integrate the physical capabilities and behaviours of workers aged 50+

• Value creation by new 50+ entrepreneurs

• Tangible and intangible benefits of retaining older skilled workers

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https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/10/what-are-the-economic-implications-of-ageing-populations/

Life cycle of public spending and tax

Societal Challenge Major Opportunity

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Dependency Ratio

•From 1:4 to 1:2

•80+ doubles by 2025

Cost of Care

•Up by 4-8 % of GDP by 2025

Human Resources

•Shrinking work force•Lacking 20 million carers by 2020

Empowerment

•Active Ageing

New Care Models

•Home based

•Integrated care

•Large Efficiency gains

Growth and Markets

•3000 B€ wealth

•85 Million Consumers - and growing

• Large scale uptake of digital innovation

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DEMOGRAPHICCHANGE

DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology

Potential Healthy Life Years - Retirement Age

Source: Eurostat, 2009

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40,0

45,0

50,0

55,0

60,0

65,0

70,0

75,0

80,0

Healthy Life Years

average exit age

Max Healthy Life Years

Min Healthy Life YearsMax - MaltaMin - Slovakia

Drivers for success

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• Prizes

• Markets

• Technologies

• Europe-wide cooperation

In early 2016 the European Commission launched an "Horizon Prize" that rewards the innovator or team who comes up with the best solution to address the challenges and opportunities of ageing and to improve the quality of life of senior citizens.

Their breakthrough will receive €2 million from Horizon 2020. http://europa.eu/!ck76Xw

2 Million € Prize

For best solution to the "ageing challenge"

HALF of EU enterprises provide mobile devices for business use

276.5 million EUR turnoverof EU B2C eCommerce (2012)

14% of EU SMEs selling online

29% of EU enterprises use e-Invoices

28% EU enterprises use Social media

38% EU venture capital is in ICT

DIGITAL BUSINESS

DIGITAL ECONOMY72% of EU individuals uses INTERNET regularly

900 000 estimated demand/supply gap by 2020

150 Million subscriptionsfixed Broadband

130 mobile subscriptions per 100 people

ICT drives 1/3rd

EU GDP growth 1995-2007

2.4% of workforce

+ 4.1% yearly employment growth

ICT professionals

55% work outside ICT sector

7% of GDPSize of the

digital economy

6% of Gov't R&D

is ICT

17% of business

R&Dby ICT sector

ICT sector

4.4%

ICT in Other Sectors

17% EU patentsare in ICT

• 3000 B€ Wealth by people over 65

• 85 Million Consumers over 65 and growing

• <15% ICT use

The Consumer Market

• Care costs ~1000 B€ /year in Europe (8 % GDP)

• 10% for innovation

~100 B€ /year

The Public Market

A SCALABLE MARKET

THE SILVER ECONOMY

Possible lead markets

• Innovative health and care services for active and healthy ageing

• Age friendly / smart homes

• Senior / off season tourism

• Age friendly cities

• Age friendly workplaces

National/regional initiatives (FR, DE, UK, PL,)

http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2

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THE SILVER ECONOMY

TECHNOLOGY NOW?

DIGITISATION CONNECTED AND WEARABLE

OF PROVIDERS DEVICES AND APPs

industrial successes

NEUROPROBES

PASTA

Technology ApplicationICT project

Smart Probes

Packaging ofElectronic threads

Spin-off: ATLAS Neuroengineering: www.atlasneuro.com/

In Vitro diagnostics portable

solutions

Molecular Biology on Chip/foil

In Vivo extra-cellular neurons

recording

Incubator: Primo1D: www.grain-incubation.com/projets/primo-1d/

Smart Textile with integrated

sensors, LED and RFID

LabonFoil

Spin-off: POC Microsolutions, www.pocmicrosolutions.com

Micro-Nano-Photo-Bio-ICT convergence

data miningfor predicting

short- and long-term health risks and trends

Big Data analysis enabling early detection and minimisation of risksassociated with ageing, e.g. cognitive impairment, frailty, depression and falls

to empower individuals in their everyday life

provide personalised intervention depending on

detailed user characteristicsand individual risks

generate knowledge on data-driven prediction and

personalised preventive treatments

Big Data in health & care

Europe-wide cooperation

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• Horizon 2020

• Innovation Partnership

• Smart specialisation

• EIT KIC on Healthy living and Active Ageing

Poland: A moderate innovator

Source: The Innovation Scoreboard 2015: http://europa.eu/!Cm36XT

R & I Programmes

• H2020:

• http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en

• Calls 2016-2017:

• http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en

AAL: http://www.aal-europe.eu/

• IMI: http://www.imi.europa.eu/

• EDCTP: http://www.edctp.org/

• EIT KIC on Healthy living and Active Ageing

• http://eit.europa.eu/eit-community/eit-health

• Joint Programming Initiatives: http://www.neurodegenerationresearch.eu/

https://www.healthydietforhealthylife.eu/

http://www.jp-demographic.eu/

http://www.jpiamr.eu/

H2020 Priorities 2016-2017

•Infectious Diseases

•InnovFin

•Human

•biomonitoring

•Maternal and child health

•eHealth

•Active and

•healthy ageing

•Personalised

•medicine

European Innovation Partnership (2013-2016)

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Innovation Partnership

EIT KIC FOR HEALTH

InnoStars Partners (Poland):

Medical University Lodz (MUL) is amongthe largest state-owned medicaluniversities in Poland.

It has reached the leading position in theresearch areas such as: immunology,molecular biology, genetics of homeostasisdisorders, oncology, hypertension andendocrinology.

Nofer Institute of OccupationalMedicine (NIOM) in Lodz, Poland is ahighly specialized, scientific research unitthat has been co-creating occupationalhealth care system through carrying out itsscientific, therapeutic, expertise,implementation, training and publishingactivities.

EIT KIC FOR HEALTH

Funds available

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SMART SPECIALISATION

ERDF ESF

Health infrastructure€ 1369 mln

Active and healthy ageing

€ 336 mln

ICT solutions addressing the healthy active

ageing challenge

€ 350 mln

Enhancing access to

affordable, sustainable and

high quality€ 965 mln

Total€ 3020 mln

NUTS ID

Region/Country

Description

PL PolandBIOECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT: Healthy food (high quality and performance of production)

PL Poland

HEALTHY SOCIETY: Medical diagnosis and treatment of lifestyle diseases and personalized medicine

PL PolandHEALTHY SOCIETY: Medical engineering technologies, including biotechnologies

PL PolandHEALTHY SOCIETY: Production of medicinal products

Polish strategies

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Thank you!

@eurohumph