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2012/ISTWG/FOR/002
From Silk Road to Smart City - A Story on Singularity
Submitted by: IEEE
APEC Smart City Industrial Technology Cooperation ForumChangzhou, China
17-20 December 2012
From Silk Road to Smart CityA Story on Singularity
Professor Carl K. ChangChair, Computer Science
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITYFellow, IEEE; Fellow AAAS
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Acknowledgements
• The speaker would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge many friends and colleagues who volunteered Smart City information of Seoul,Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung as well as four smart cities in Japan.
• Some of the slides were borrowed with permission from John Vincent Atanasoff II and Vladimir Getov.
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Silk Road Chronology• 3000 BC – Silk first produced in China• 400 BC – Empire of Alexander the Great expanded into Asia• 300 BC – Roman expansion began; Qin dynasty united China• 200 BC – Han controlled the Silk Road ; opened the route to the West• 1 AD – Silk first seen in Rome• 100 AD – Four empires (Roman, Parthian, Kushan, China) provided
stability to the Silk Road• 500 AD – Silk Worm farms appeared in Europe• 600 AD – Tang Dynasty marked the Golden Age of the Silk Road• 1200 AD – Marco Polo left for the East• 1400 AD – Ming Dynasty reduced Silk Road traffic; began ocean
exploration• 1800 AD – German scholar, Baron Ferdinand von Richthofen used the
term “Silk Road” (Seidenstrasse) for the first time
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
The Metaphor• Silk Road
– Eastern technologies going west (silk, paper, printing, gun powder, etc.)
– Eastern philosophies met western ones– Old human treasures accumulated over thousands of
years – progress very slowly (e.g. 3,500 years for tech transfer of silk making from the east to the west.)
• Smart City– Western technologies going east (engines, antibiotics,
avionics, computers, software, Internet, etc.)– Globalization (democracy, life style, etc.)– Modern human treasures accumulated about 60
years – progress lightening-fast with exponential growth
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
The Information Revolution –the Advent of Speech
• The first informationrevolution – the advent ofSpeech (~50,000 yrs ago)• Since then, the accelerating development of self-expression, creativity and communication has reflected the enhanced mental and verbal power of modern mankind (homo sapiens).
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The Information Revolution – Writing• Introduced approximately 5000 years ago
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The Information Revolution – Writing(continued)
• Problems withhandwriting
• Advent of paper in China
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The Information Revolution – Printingand Other Technologies –
Dissemination
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The Information Revolution –Information Processing
• Automatic processing and/or discovery of new information
• The first electronic digital computer, the Atanasoff Berry Computer (ABC) –invented in 1939 at Iowa State College (Now Iowa State University)
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Approach for ABC“Decisions from Illinois”
http://www.atanasoff.org
• Use electricity and electronic vacuum tubes (speed)
• Use binary two (economy, logic, and memory)
• Use capacitors for memory, but jog one refresh to avoid lapses - 29x29 matrix (cost)
• Compute by logic, not enumeration (high accuracy)
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC ABC
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
John W. Mauchly & J. P. EckertJohn V. Atanasoff & C. Berry
ENIAC(Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer)
ABC(Atanasoff Berry Computer)
1941 or 1945?
Comparisons of Computers
ABC
153000
45,000$6,000+
650+1939 dollars
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
CharacteristicSpeed in sec.Memory in bitsMass Storage in bitsCost of UnitWeight, Lbs.
Today10 billionth100 billion10 trillion$300,000*
10* 1997 dollars
ABC
Smaller, but Larger and Faster
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1000GHVD
(Holographic Versatile Disk)
15-50G HD-DVDBlue-ray
4GDVD
Flash memory
0.7GCD
0.001GFloppy
PC20x20x20
Notebook2X14X10
Mobile device1x4x2
Nanocomputer0.004x0.004
Wearable computerVarious
Distributed, Mobile, Pervasive, Service-oriented, Social …
Searching, Storing, Organizing, Sharing, Transferring, …
Trends Analysis of ComputingTrends Analysis of Computing
System Perspective
ElectronicDigital
Birth of ABC ENIAC
1937 1946 1968 1981 1991
IBM 360 / 370
SEDCS
DECPDP-11
VAX780IBM PC
APPLE MAC
WWW
Machine Oriented
Hardware Dominance
HLLFunctional, Modular Structured
Software Dominance
Object Oriented
Aspect Oriented
Usability Dominance
NSFNETARPANET
1984
Distant Past
Recent Past
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Trends Analysis of ComputingTrends Analysis of Computing
Human Perspective
petaFLOPS exaFLOPS
2008 2020 2050Web ServicesSOAPersonalizationUbiquitous
Analytic SOAWeb 2.0Pervasive Computing
Component Model Driven
Service Dominance
Human Dominance
Blue Gene
Aspect Oriented
Privatization
1995
Optical Quantum
Seamless ComputingAutonomic Computing (mature)
Social Computing (norm)
Individualization
Distant Future
Present Recent Future
2012
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Google web search
Google image search Google news
Froogle
Gmail
Google What Else?
Google map
Input: Technological Singularities
• John von Neumann may have coined the computer term of “singularity” (other instances including “gravitational singularity”)
• Def: the imminent creation by technology of entities with >> human intelligence
• Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge argued for it to happen in two ways: AI and IA
• Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted it to happen round 2045
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December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
- April 5, 2005
Output: Societal SingularityIs the Smart City Flat?
Commonalities & Variabilities ofSmart Cities
• Digitalizing and Broadband are essential• Sustainability is an emerging concern• Marginalized population is being considered• Intelligent Transportation has not become pervasive
• Culture and Life depend on origin and location• Broader vision requires comprehensive strategic plans and earnest efforts to realize
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Smart Cities Sanity CheckConcerns Sustain Mobility Innovation Safety
SecurityeGov Education Life Advocacy
Keihana v v
KitaKyushu v
Lyon v
New Taipei v v v v
Seoul v v v v v v v
Taichung v v v v v v v v
Taipei v v v v v v v
Tianjin v v v
Toyota City v v v
Yokohama v
Changzhou ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
The Eventual Outcome
• The optimistic view: A better, more structured, sustainable city that is smarter and warmer; well prepared for the continuous Urban Migration.
• The pessimistic view: societal singularity is imminent!
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Societal Singularity- a few examples -
• Will the exponential growth of smart technologies eventually bury the marginalized population?
• Will the evil finally take control and cause the greatest upsets in humanity?
• Will there be a dooms day for the Homo Sapiens vs. Techno Sapiens?
• Will and be ever blurring?
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Smarter Technologies EnablesSmarter Cities
• Cases for Individualization• Cases for Identities • Cases for Situations• Research Directions:
– Situational Services– Mobile Object Management– Brain Informatics– Really soft software!
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Exactly what is a Situation?• Logician’s definition:
The world consists of objects, properties of objects andrelations among objects. And there are parts of theworld, clearly or vaguely recognized in common senseand human language. These parts of the world arecalled situations. Events and episodes are situations intime, scenes are visually perceived situations, etc.[Barwise at el., 1980]
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Studies on Situations Philosophy [McCarthy et al., 1969] [Barwise, 1989] Mathematical logic [Barwise et al., 1989] Cognitive and psychological sciences [McCarthy, 1968]
[Barwise et al., 1983] Computational linguistic [Devlin, 1991] [Devlin et al., 1996] Business communication [Devlin et al., 1996] [Devlin, 2001] Artificial intelligence [Reiter 1991] [Pinto, 1994] [McCarthy,
1995] Software engineering [Yau et al., 2008] [Mastrogiovanni et al.,
2008] [Chang 2009]: Carl K. Chang, et al. Situ: A Situation‐Theoretic
Approach to Context‐Aware Services Evolution. IEEE Trans. onServices Computing, 2:3, pp. 261‐275.
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Department of Computer ScienceDecember 19, 2011
SituA Situation-Theoretic Human-intention Driven Approach to Runtime Software Service Evolution
Situ Framework – A situation-theoretic human-intention drivenframework in support of context-aware service evolution has been developed to realizethis new paradigm [1]. Rooted in situation theory, Situ enhances upon the originalpropositions of situation with human internal mental states and environmental parametersas well as observable user actions to form semantically richer definitions of situationsand intentions that are computationally feasible.
Reasoning about Human Intention Changes –The research project aims to develop a formal computational model to monitor andreason about human intention changes under the Situ framework. Combined with thenotion of possible worlds in Kripke semantics, which allows formal description of therelations between users’ needs (user’s worlds) and designers’ understandings (designer’sworlds) of user requirements, Situ-morphism provides the rules to determines whetherthe current implementation no longer satisfies a user’s intentions (i.e., sequence ofsituations) and locate the part of the system that requires evolution or replacement, inorder to provide a new release to satisfy the user. The traditional “retrofit” policy andpractice for such feature replacement takes too long by the emerging (tomorrow’s)standard. A rapid “runtime retrofit” of modified or new features that directly enhancesuser’s experience in the field seems to be overdue.
[1] C. K. Chang, H. Jiang, H. Ming and K. Oyama, “Situ: A Situation-TheoreticApproach to Context-Aware Service Evolution,” IEEE Transactions on ServicesComputing, col. 2, no. 3, 261-275, 2009.
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
How Neuroscience Can Be Used?• “The Marketplace in Your Brain”, Josh Fischman, The Chronicle Review, September 18, 2012
• fMRI scanner reveals fine details of brain anatomy –brain regions.
• Bidding in auction: “Joy of winning?” vs. “Fear of losing?”
• NIH: $7.6M USD for 21 projects; just gave $9M USD to Caltech for a new center (NYU already has one: CNE)
• NSF: $3.5M USD in Neuroeconomics
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Mobility Management
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC
Location Based Services
Location Privacy
Mobile ServicesMobile Object Management
Temporary Mobile Subscriber Identity
International Mobile Subscriber Identity
United We Ride
Recent Concepts on Software Evolution
Software Evolution @ Runtime– Evolution cycle includes runtime feedback through three phases.1) Monitoring to observe changes of individual users’ situation and intention,2) Evolve to modify business process and corresponding services,3) Service Release with runtime test.
Evolution Cycle
(2) Evolve
(3) Service Release(Runtime Test)(1) Monitoring
Service 1 in Environment A
Service 1 in Environment B
Service 2 in Environment B
Context Information
Planned Services
• Location with Time• Access Pattern from a user• Health Status• Etc.
n1 n2
n3
n4
n5
n6
n7
n8
n9
n10
e1
e2
e3
e4
e5
e6
e7
e8
e9
Possible future generations
Focus on feedback of context information into software evolution
Requirements
Conclusions• Be wary: City gets smarter while people
may get dumber• God blesses us to avoid Societal
Singularity• The mission of educators has not changed
since the Silk Road days: cultivate the young generation with a discerning mind.
• Well…Enjoy Smart Cities wherever, whenever and while you can!
December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC