From Silk Road to Smart City - A Story on SingularityFrom Silk Road to Smart City - A Story on ... • Some of the slides were borrowed with ... Wearable computer Various Distributed,

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2012/ISTWG/FOR/002

From Silk Road to Smart City - A Story on Singularity

Submitted by: IEEE

APEC Smart City Industrial Technology Cooperation ForumChangzhou, China

17-20 December 2012

From Silk Road to Smart CityA Story on Singularity

Professor Carl K. ChangChair, Computer Science

IOWA STATE UNIVERSITYFellow, IEEE; Fellow AAAS

December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC

Acknowledgements

• The speaker would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge many friends and colleagues who volunteered Smart City information of Seoul,Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung as well as four smart cities in Japan.

• Some of the slides were borrowed with permission from John Vincent Atanasoff II and Vladimir Getov.



The Silk Road

Silk Road Chronology• 3000 BC – Silk first produced in China• 400 BC – Empire of Alexander the Great expanded into Asia• 300 BC – Roman expansion began; Qin dynasty united China• 200 BC – Han controlled the Silk Road ; opened the route to the West• 1 AD – Silk first seen in Rome• 100 AD – Four empires (Roman, Parthian, Kushan, China) provided

stability to the Silk Road• 500 AD – Silk Worm farms appeared in Europe• 600 AD – Tang Dynasty marked the Golden Age of the Silk Road• 1200 AD – Marco Polo left for the East• 1400 AD – Ming Dynasty reduced Silk Road traffic; began ocean

exploration• 1800 AD – German scholar, Baron Ferdinand von Richthofen used the

term “Silk Road” (Seidenstrasse) for the first time


The Metaphor• Silk Road

– Eastern technologies going west (silk, paper, printing, gun powder, etc.)

– Eastern philosophies met western ones– Old human treasures accumulated over thousands of

years – progress very slowly (e.g. 3,500 years for tech transfer of silk making from the east to the west.)

• Smart City– Western technologies going east (engines, antibiotics,

avionics, computers, software, Internet, etc.)– Globalization (democracy, life style, etc.)– Modern human treasures accumulated about 60

years – progress lightening-fast with exponential growth


The Information Revolution –the Advent of Speech

• The first informationrevolution – the advent ofSpeech (~50,000 yrs ago)• Since then, the accelerating development of self-expression, creativity and communication has reflected the enhanced mental and verbal power of modern mankind (homo sapiens).


The Information Revolution – Writing• Introduced approximately 5000 years ago


The Information Revolution – Writing(continued)

• Problems withhandwriting

• Advent of paper in China


The Information Revolution – Printingand Other Technologies –

Dissemination


The Information Revolution –Information Processing

• Automatic processing and/or discovery of new information

• The first electronic digital computer, the Atanasoff Berry Computer (ABC) –invented in 1939 at Iowa State College (Now Iowa State University)


REPLICA MODEL of ABC


Approach for ABC“Decisions from Illinois”

http://www.atanasoff.org

• Use electricity and electronic vacuum tubes (speed)

• Use binary two (economy, logic, and memory)

• Use capacitors for memory, but jog one refresh to avoid lapses - 29x29 matrix (cost)

• Compute by logic, not enumeration (high accuracy)

December 18, 2012 APEC Smart City Changzhou - CKC ABC



John W. Mauchly & J. P. EckertJohn V. Atanasoff & C. Berry

ENIAC(Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer)

ABC(Atanasoff Berry Computer)

1941 or 1945?

Comparisons of Computers

ABC

153000

45,000$6,000+

650+1939 dollars


CharacteristicSpeed in sec.Memory in bitsMass Storage in bitsCost of UnitWeight, Lbs.

Today10 billionth100 billion10 trillion$300,000*

10* 1997 dollars

ABC

Smaller, but Larger and Faster


1000GHVD

(Holographic Versatile Disk)

15-50G HD-DVDBlue-ray

4GDVD

Flash memory

0.7GCD

0.001GFloppy

PC20x20x20

Notebook2X14X10

Mobile device1x4x2

Nanocomputer0.004x0.004

Wearable computerVarious

Distributed, Mobile, Pervasive, Service-oriented, Social …

Searching, Storing, Organizing, Sharing, Transferring, …

Trends Analysis of ComputingTrends Analysis of Computing

System Perspective

ElectronicDigital

Birth of ABC ENIAC

1937 1946 1968 1981 1991

IBM 360 / 370

SEDCS

DECPDP-11

VAX780IBM PC

APPLE MAC

WWW

Machine Oriented

Hardware Dominance

HLLFunctional, Modular Structured

Software Dominance

Object Oriented

Aspect Oriented

Usability Dominance

NSFNETARPANET

1984

Distant Past

Recent Past


Trends Analysis of ComputingTrends Analysis of Computing

Human Perspective

petaFLOPS exaFLOPS

2008 2020 2050Web ServicesSOAPersonalizationUbiquitous

Analytic SOAWeb 2.0Pervasive Computing

Component Model Driven

Service Dominance

Human Dominance

Blue Gene

Aspect Oriented

Privatization

1995

Optical Quantum

Seamless ComputingAutonomic Computing (mature)

Social Computing (norm)

Individualization

Distant Future

Present Recent Future

2012



Google web search

Google image search Google news

Froogle

Gmail

Google What Else?

Google map

Input: Technological Singularities

• John von Neumann may have coined the computer term of “singularity” (other instances including “gravitational singularity”)

• Def: the imminent creation by technology of entities with >> human intelligence

• Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge argued for it to happen in two ways: AI and IA

• Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted it to happen round 2045



- April 5, 2005

Output: Societal SingularityIs the Smart City Flat?

Commonalities & Variabilities ofSmart Cities

• Digitalizing and Broadband are essential• Sustainability is an emerging concern• Marginalized population is being considered• Intelligent Transportation has not become pervasive

• Culture and Life depend on origin and location• Broader vision requires comprehensive strategic plans and earnest efforts to realize


Smart Cities Sanity CheckConcerns Sustain Mobility Innovation Safety

SecurityeGov Education Life Advocacy

Keihana v v

KitaKyushu v

Lyon v

New Taipei v v v v

Seoul v v v v v v v

Taichung v v v v v v v v

Taipei v v v v v v v

Tianjin v v v

Toyota City v v v

Yokohama v

Changzhou ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?


The Eventual Outcome

• The optimistic view: A better, more structured, sustainable city that is smarter and warmer; well prepared for the continuous Urban Migration.

• The pessimistic view: societal singularity is imminent!


Societal Singularity- a few examples -

• Will the exponential growth of smart technologies eventually bury the marginalized population?

• Will the evil finally take control and cause the greatest upsets in humanity?

• Will there be a dooms day for the Homo Sapiens vs. Techno Sapiens?

• Will and be ever blurring?


Smarter Technologies EnablesSmarter Cities

• Cases for Individualization• Cases for Identities • Cases for Situations• Research Directions:

– Situational Services– Mobile Object Management– Brain Informatics– Really soft software!


Human often are “situated”


Exactly what is a Situation?• Logician’s definition:

The world consists of objects, properties of objects andrelations among objects. And there are parts of theworld, clearly or vaguely recognized in common senseand human language. These parts of the world arecalled situations. Events and episodes are situations intime, scenes are visually perceived situations, etc.[Barwise at el., 1980]


Studies on Situations Philosophy [McCarthy et al., 1969] [Barwise, 1989] Mathematical logic [Barwise et al., 1989] Cognitive and psychological sciences [McCarthy, 1968]

[Barwise et al., 1983] Computational linguistic [Devlin, 1991] [Devlin et al., 1996] Business communication [Devlin et al., 1996] [Devlin, 2001] Artificial intelligence [Reiter 1991] [Pinto, 1994] [McCarthy,

1995] Software engineering [Yau et al., 2008] [Mastrogiovanni et al.,

2008] [Chang 2009]: Carl K. Chang, et al. Situ: A Situation‐Theoretic

Approach to Context‐Aware Services Evolution. IEEE Trans. onServices Computing, 2:3, pp. 261‐275.


Department of Computer ScienceDecember 19, 2011

SituA Situation-Theoretic Human-intention Driven Approach to Runtime Software Service Evolution

Situ Framework – A situation-theoretic human-intention drivenframework in support of context-aware service evolution has been developed to realizethis new paradigm [1]. Rooted in situation theory, Situ enhances upon the originalpropositions of situation with human internal mental states and environmental parametersas well as observable user actions to form semantically richer definitions of situationsand intentions that are computationally feasible.

Reasoning about Human Intention Changes –The research project aims to develop a formal computational model to monitor andreason about human intention changes under the Situ framework. Combined with thenotion of possible worlds in Kripke semantics, which allows formal description of therelations between users’ needs (user’s worlds) and designers’ understandings (designer’sworlds) of user requirements, Situ-morphism provides the rules to determines whetherthe current implementation no longer satisfies a user’s intentions (i.e., sequence ofsituations) and locate the part of the system that requires evolution or replacement, inorder to provide a new release to satisfy the user. The traditional “retrofit” policy andpractice for such feature replacement takes too long by the emerging (tomorrow’s)standard. A rapid “runtime retrofit” of modified or new features that directly enhancesuser’s experience in the field seems to be overdue.

[1] C. K. Chang, H. Jiang, H. Ming and K. Oyama, “Situ: A Situation-TheoreticApproach to Context-Aware Service Evolution,” IEEE Transactions on ServicesComputing, col. 2, no. 3, 261-275, 2009.


The Situ Framework



Brain-Computer Interaction (BCI)

How Neuroscience Can Be Used?• “The Marketplace in Your Brain”, Josh Fischman, The Chronicle Review, September 18, 2012

• fMRI scanner reveals fine details of brain anatomy –brain regions.

• Bidding in auction: “Joy of winning?” vs. “Fear of losing?”

• NIH: $7.6M USD for 21 projects; just gave $9M USD to Caltech for a new center (NYU already has one: CNE)

• NSF: $3.5M USD in Neuroeconomics


Mobility Management


Location Based Services

Location Privacy

Mobile ServicesMobile Object Management

Temporary Mobile Subscriber Identity

International Mobile Subscriber Identity

United We Ride

Recent Concepts on Software Evolution

Software Evolution @ Runtime– Evolution cycle includes runtime feedback through three phases.1) Monitoring to observe changes of individual users’ situation and intention,2) Evolve to modify business process and corresponding services,3) Service Release with runtime test.

Evolution Cycle

(2) Evolve

(3) Service Release(Runtime Test)(1) Monitoring

Service 1 in Environment A

Service 1 in Environment B

Service 2 in Environment B

Context Information

Planned Services

• Location with Time• Access Pattern from a user• Health Status• Etc.

n1 n2

n3

n4

n5

n6

n7

n8

n9

n10

e1

e2

e3

e4

e5

e6

e7

e8

e9

Possible future generations

Focus on feedback of context information into software evolution

Requirements

Conclusions• Be wary: City gets smarter while people

may get dumber• God blesses us to avoid Societal

Singularity• The mission of educators has not changed

since the Silk Road days: cultivate the young generation with a discerning mind.

• Well…Enjoy Smart Cities wherever, whenever and while you can!



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