© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.
Enabling The Migration to Modern Gasoline Direct Injection
9th "Global Lubricant Week 2018"
Dr. Colin Morton | Moscow | 10 October 2018
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.2
Overview • Russia’s automotive lubricant market
• Powertrain technology evolution and TGDI
• Future lubricant outlook
• Summary
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.5
Russia | Significant Growth Potential
United States Russia China
0.33 billion people
$59,500 / capita GDP
1.38 billion people
$16,600 / capita GDP
142 million people
$27,800 / capita GDP
82% living in an
urban environment
58% living in an
urban environment74% living in an
urban environment
6,586,610 km of roads 4,106,387 km of roads1,283,387 km of roads
795 vehicles / 1,000 people 369 vehicles / 1,000 people 154 vehicles / 1,000 people
Source: CIA Factbook. Data shown for countries in 2017. Data for roads includes paved and unpaved roads.
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.6
Russia’s Positionin the Global Automotive Market
• The global automotive sector has grown
• Accelerating growth in Eastern Europe has largely been driven by an upturn
in the Russian market and growth in Poland plus the Czech Republic
• Overall passenger vehicle trend in Russia :
– 2017 recovery for new vehicle sales following a 10-year low in 2016
– 2020 forecast predicts upward trend in new vehicle sales
– Rates of growth may depend on macroeconomic environment
– Dealership network moving towards consolidation, with new business
models needed to help unlock growth (new vehicle sales, improvement in
used vehicle sales and growth in aftermarket service business)
Source : EY Advisory Services
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.7
Russia’s Vehicle Parc Continues To Grow
Light-vehicle sales forecast to grow to 1.85 million units in 2018 (+16% vs prior)
Total number of passenger vehicles in operation (2012 - 2017 actual | 2018 - 2021 forecast)
Mill
ion
ve
hic
les
Parc by registration type (2017)
Source: Lubrizol; contains content supplied by IHS Markit, AutoInsight, accessed 2018. All rights reserved.
8%
8%
84%
HEAVY COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
PASSENGER CARS35.00
37.00
39.00
41.00
43.00
45.00
47.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.8
Insight | Russia Lubricant Sales Channels 2020
The training of lubricant distributors is of vital importance to sell value
33%
67%
Direct Sales
Distributor Sales
42%
21%
15%
9%5% 7%
HD On-Road
Retail Autoshops
HD Off Road
Independent Workshops
OEM Workshops
Other
Source : RPS Energy
• On and off-road heavy duty end use
account for 57% of all lubricants
• Largest CAGR growth channels
from 2016 to 2020 are :
– Large Retailers
– OEM Authorised Workshops
– Independent Workshops
• 2/3 of all inland transportation lubricants
are sold through distributor channels
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.10
Challenges for PCMO in RussiaPowertrain Evolution in Russia - Growth of TGDI
Advanced hardware requires advanced lubricants
2003 2018
Engine 1,781 cc, NA PFI
Power 74 kW
Torque 155 Nm
Transmission 5 MT
Curb Weight 1,210 kg
0 - 100 km/hrs 13.4 s
Fuel Economy 7.1 L/100km (90 km/h constant)
Engine Oil API SJ, 5W-40
Engine 1,798 cc, TGDI
Power 132 kW
Torque 300 Nm
Transmission 7g DSG
Curb Weight 1,580 kg
0 - 100 km/hr 8.5 s
Fuel Economy 5.2 L/100 km (90km/h constant)
Engine Oil VW 502 00, 5W-40
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.11
High GDI engine adoption rate worldwide | Russia expected to follow this trend
Growth in Production of TGDI Vehicles
Source: 2018 IHS Auto Insight, Worldview and Lubrizol
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.12
TGDI Engines
Lubrizol TGDI chemistry demonstrates all round engine protection
• Environmental concerns are driving
the use of TGDI engines around the
world
• These more efficient engines create a
much tougher operating environment
for the lubricant
• Lower tier traditional API categories
can cause major issues in TGDI engines
• Lubrizol TGDI chemistry has demonstrated
significant benefits in extensive field testing
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.13
Low Speed Pre-Ignition (LSPI)
• LSPI is a pre-ignition
event that can happen in
high pressure gasoline
engines
• The oil or a deposit ignites
in the presence of air and
fuel causing uncontrolled
combustion
• Events are random and
can be infrequent
• These events can cause
catastrophic damage
The correct lubricant can help reduce or mitigate the instances of LSPI
Video autoplay
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.14
The Modern T-GDI Equipped Vehicle
• Smaller capacity higher power output turbo-
charged direct-injection (T-GDI) engines
• 6, 8 and 9 speed automatic
transmissions
• New gasoline particulate filters (GPF)
aftertreatment systems
Use of GPFs to meet latest Euro 6 will require lower SAPS lubricants
Issue Market Insight Engineering Response Lubricant Response
Driver feel Smooth acceleration and torque Low speed torque, use of turbo charger LSPI protection
Fuel Economy Euro 6 regulations Smaller, ligher, more powerful engines Lighter viscosity grades
Fuel Quality Higher aromatics Calibration of engine Deposit and sludge handling
Emissions Euro 6 regulations Adoption of gasoline particulate filters Lower SAPS additive
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.16
A shift to lower viscosity grade lubricants is underway
Source: Lubrizol analysis. Based in part on content supplied by IHS Markit – Worldview, 2015
Russia passenger vehicle lubricant market by viscosity grade
Improving Lubricant Quality
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.17
A shift to higher quality lubricants is also underway
Source: Lubrizol analysis. Based in part on content supplied by IHS Markit – Worldview, 2015
Russia passenger vehicle lubricant market by quality level
/ SN PLUS
Improving Lubricant Quality
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.18
The Impact of
Gasoline Direct Injection (TGDI)
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.19
Durable Lubricant Technology for TGDI Engines
TGDI engines require high performance lubricants
Source: Lubrizol
Evaluating engine condition, e.g sludge formation
Lubricant Performance Level
Lower Higher
Slu
dg
e H
and
ling
Pe
rfo
rma
nce
Un
acce
pta
ble
Acce
cpta
ble
Lubrizol Testing of TGDI vehicles in China
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.20
Fuel Economy – ACEA C5 xW-20
Fuel Economy Lubricant Technology
Lower viscosity fluids must still protect modern TGDI engines
Testing TGDI vehicles in China Durability – wear protection at low viscosity
Source: Lubrizol
Re
fere
nce
Re
fere
nce
AC
EA
C5
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.21
Engine Lubricants Need to Protect Against LSPI
LSPI is an issue today and needs new lubricant technology to be used
• TGDI engines operate in a more fuel efficient regime where
low speed pre-ignition (LSPI) can occur
– LSPI is abnormal engine combustion that can cause engine
damage or failure and often goes undetected until it’s too late
– Lubrizol Field testing in China have detected LSPI events
– OEMs are concerned about LSPI and need solutions now
• The right engine oil can help to stop LSPI from happening
– API SN Plus has been issued to ensure protection from LSPI
– OEMs are introducing new tests to ensure protection from LSPI
– ACEA based lubricants also need to be designed to protect
engines from damage caused by LSPI
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.22
Fastest Growing Engine TypeRemains Unprotected
This is an unacceptable situation for OEMs and vehicle owners
• Field data proves older oil specifications
are inadequate for TGDI engines
• OEMs can no longer wait
– GM dexos1TM Gen 2
– API SN PLUS
– European OEMs (PSA, Daimler)
– Future ACEA 2018 and beyond
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.24
Summary | Multi-Dimensional Formulating Challenges
• Environmental concerns and economic growth
continue to be the macro drivers in Russia
• The use of new TGDI engine hardware will
lead to increased demand for higher
performance lubricants to mitigate issues such
as LSPI
• The use of new aftertreatment systems such
as GPFs will lead to increased demand for
lower SAPS additives
Lubricant marketers need to consider TGDI requirements across their portfolio
to ensure the performance improvement and protection needed
© 2018 The Lubrizol Corporation, all rights reserved.
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