Cambrian School District
Measure L Post Campaign Summary
IntroductionMeasure L received 58.41% on November 2, 2010
Campaign:•Volunteers: phone banks, precinct walks, endorsements•Voter communication: direct mail, website, volunteers
Survey DataMay 2010: 71% definitely or probably Yes, 2% leaning Yes
Support varied by affiliation: •83% of Democrats•70% of Decline to State•61% of Republicans •79% of Parents
•Results presented June 2010—all Santa Clara County parcel taxes passed
Survey Data Negative Message• Existing tax decreased support to 64%
• Other messages weakened support to 67%
• Argument against
• Two newspaper stories discussed existing tax measure
Campaign StrategyCampaign “turnout and persuade” Turnout Targets: Supportive in survey; likely voters •Supporters of past Cambrian tax measures•Parents •Democrats •Seniors
Persuasion Targets•Likely Republican voters•Likely Decline to State voters
Voter Turnout and IdentificationTotal # of Registered District Voters 15,404
Total # of Votes cast for Measure L 10,003
Overall voter turnout for Measure L 64.9%
Total # of ID’s (yes, no, undecided) 4,194
Percent of registered voters ID’d by campaign 27.2%
Total # of ID’d Yes’s 2,734
Percentage of Yes’s among ID’d voters 65.2%
Percentage of ID’d Yes’s who voted 83.2%
Percentage of parents who voted 73.4%
Percentage of Democrats who voted 69.9%
Geography
Sartorette Bagby Fammatre Farnham
Turnout 68.3% 69.4% 70.5% 66.6%
Sartorette Bagby Fammatre Farnham
Yes 59.1% 61.7% 60.5% 52.8%
No 40.9% 38.3% 39.5% 47.2%
Voter Turnout
Party Democrat Republican DTS/Other
46% 31% 23%
EMC Poll Turnout Estimate
Party Democrat Republican DTS/Other
46.4% 30.8% 22.8%
Election Day Actual Turnout
Historically Unfavorable Electoral Climate
Measure Measure A Healthy Kids
Measure E FHDACCD
Measure IEast Side
Measure LCambrian SD
Poll % Yes 67.0% 71.0% 71.0% 73.0%
Yes 58.76% 58.0% 57.37% 58.41%
No 41.24% 42.0% 42.63% 41.59%
Historically Unfavorable Electoral Climate
• Only 2 out of 18 school parcel tax measures passed in California (1 new $53; one renew)
• Contrast to June 2010: 6 out of 9 school parcel tax measures passed
National November 2010 Political Climate
• National– Struggling economy– Tea Party: anti-tax, anti-union, impacts to public
agencies
State Politics 2010
• Unprecedented budget deficit• Meg Whitman 34.88% in Santa Clara County– Unprecedented campaign budget, targeted all
voters, fiscal and education reform– Drove conversation to right
• Jerry Brown: no tax increase without vote, pension reform
Local November 2010 Political Climate
• District 9 City Council– Negative “Independent Expenditure” mailers– Walk pieces in Cambrian– “No new taxes” pledges
• Protracted pension fight in the City of San Jose Measures V and W
• Term limits Santa Clara Valley Water District 75% of the vote
Campaign Successes
• Campaign committee stayed on message • Phone banks/walks were consistent, well
attended • 27% of the electorate was identified • Complete and politically diverse list of
endorsements• Fundraising goals to send ample direct mail
Lessons Learned• Strong campaign couldn’t overcome
profound shift in voter opinion between June and November
• Smaller lower turnout election to avoid “noise” and target turnout
Cambrian School District
Measure L Post Campaign Summary