Bolstering WorkforceAdapting to Changing Economic
Landscapes
Speakers• Dr. Louise Comfort
o Director, Center for Disaster Management• Michael Fox
o Executive Director, Plainview/Hale County Economic Development Corporation
• Steven Perdiao General Manager, Strategy and Planning,
Canterbury Development Corporation
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Dr. Louise Comfort• Director, Center for Disaster
Management, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
• Ph.D., Yale• Fellow, National Academy of Public
Administration• Author of six books, including:
• Designing Resilience: Preparing for Extreme Events
• Mega-Crises: Understanding the Prospects, Nature, Characteristics and the Effects of Cataclysmic Events
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The Impact of Extreme Events on Business OrganizationsLouise K. Comfort and Research Staff,Center for Disaster Management, University of PittsburghPittsburgh, PA 15260 Email: [email protected]
Building Resilience to Extreme Events
• Challenge to businesses: cost, losses, down time• Superstorm Sandy, 2012: $72 billion in estimated
losses; second only to Katrina, est. $135 billion• Directly affected 60 million people in 24 states• Economic losses estimated at $66 billion, NY, NJ• Storm caused cascading effects, disrupted
businesses, jobs lost, altered local economies
RISK IS INCREASING
• As society becomes more interconnected, losses increase
• Transportation, communication, energy, water, waste water distribution systems operate as interdependent services
• If one service is disrupted, demand increases on others; threat is compounded by aging infrastructure
• Businesses most affected by extreme events, yet, make least investment in risk reduction, preparedness
Innovative Approaches• Regions exposed to continuing risk have sought practical measures
of coping with hazards• National Association of Workforce Boards sought to identify
measures that enabled businesses to build resilient operations• CDM Study produced five sets of findings:
• Key provisions, Workforce Investment Act 1998, for disasters• Key strategies used by other regions exposed to risk• Characterized impact of Sandy on businesses, response to storm• Areas of strength, weakness in response operations• Recommendations: reducing consequences of disaster events
Workforce Investment Act (WIA)
• WIA intended to support communities in economic dislocation• WI Board interprets disaster impact as economic dislocation• WIA funds can be accessed, if federal disaster is declared• Under WIA, workers can be hired to:
• Provide information about jobs to those who lost their jobs• Participate in training programs for new jobs• Assist local community in developing coordinated response
to event• Assist local community in obtaining state assistance for jobs
WIA in Practice• Before an event
• Assess existing risk accurately• Understand structure of WIA system, its provisions, requirements• Assist organizations in developing business continuity plans
• During an event• Assess status of WIB members, their safety, immediate needs• Use knowledge base of operations, developed prior to event• Design alternative strategies for maintaining operations
• Mobilization for workforce recovery• Implement work process for recovery• Manage basic functions of the recovery process
Major Management Issues
• Design, enable communication flow, set up tracking system
• Manage information • Create partnerships• Develop funding sources• Map funding sources, create funding strategies• Address recurring workforce recovery issues: housing,
transportation, utilities, critical supplies• Design and implement business continuity plans, review,
reflect, and redesign business in changed environment
Impact of Sandy on Workforce
Table 1. Estimated Infrastructure Losses for New York and New Jersey post-Sandy. (Source: Aon Benfield, 2013, Table 9, p. 38)
Type Loss Type Loss
NYC Metropolitan Transit Authority 5.0 billion Marine (All states) 5.0 billion
Roads, Bridges, Tunnels (NY & NJ) 6.4 billion Recreational Boats (All states) 1.0 billion
Water, Waste, Sewage (NY & NJ) 4.7 billion New Jersey Transit 400 million
Utilities (NY & NJ) 2.5 billion Amtrak (Losses & Mitigation Costs) 336 million
NY/NJ Port Authority 2.0 billion NYC Schools 200 million
PATH Train System (NJ) 700 million NYC Hospitals 300 million
Table 2. Distribution of organizations identified in Sandy response news report content analysis cross-tabulated by source of funding and jurisdiction.
Jurisdictions
Funding Inter-
national National
Sub-national
State Sub-state
County Muni-cipal
Local Total
non profit
3 (0.5%)
57 (8.9%)
8 (1.2%)
6 (0.9%)
4 (0.6%)
1 (0.2%)
4 (0.6%)
29 (4.5%)
112 (17.4%)
private 42
(6.5%) 226
(35.2%) 31
(4.8%) 12
(1.9%) 7
(1.1%) -
2 (0.3%)
34 (5.3%)
354 (55.1%)
public 15
(2.3%) 76
(11.8%) 3
(0.5%) 45
(7%) 3
(0.5%) 7
(1.1%) 27
(4.2%) - 176
(27.4%)
Total 60
(9.3%) 359
(55.9%) 42
(6.5%) 63
(9.8%) 14
(2.2%) 8
(1.2%) 33
(5.1%) 63
(9.8%) 642
(100%)
The Emergency Response System following Sandy
Figure 2. Distribution of organizations engaged in response operations by jurisdiction and source of funding. Center pie-primary organizations; outer pie-secondary organizations.
Figure 3. Network map of Sandy response system, October 28-November 3, 2012. Symbols sized by number of transactions; shapes by funding source; color by jurisdiction.
Figure 4. Frequency of actions in emergency operations by source of funding and week in response and recovery, October 28, 2012-February 11, 2013.
Summary of findings regarding the impact of Sandy on business organizations
• 55.1% of organizations engaged in response operations following Superstorm Sandy are business organizations
• 54% of business organizations interacted w/ nonprofits, but donated funds, products; did not engage in direct operations
• National organizations were most active during response operations
• Business organizations played an important role in Sandy recovery operations, but were active only for short periods
Conclusions and recommendations for action• WIA 1998 represents opportunity for innovation, change, and
renewal in sustainable workforce development• Workforce investment systems constitute an organizational
infrastructure that connects public, private, and nonprofit organizations in disaster recovery
• Lack of preparedness leads to escalation of damage • Designing an interactive information infrastructure links
workforce investment with sustainable disaster management• Building community resilience creates a continuing process of
adaptive learning and action for…• …. all organizations – public, private, and nonprofit – in
regions exposed to risk.
Acknowledgments• I acknowledge, with thanks, the graduate student staff at the
Center for Disaster Management: B. Chalfant, J. E. Song, J. Yeo, Mengyao Chen, Brian Colella for assistance with analysis, graphics.
• Thanks and appreciation to Ronald Painter and Josh Copus, National Association of Workforce Boards, Washington, DC, for assistance in providing access to information and references.
• Warm thanks to the experienced managers who participated in the interviews and generously gave their time and insights.
Michael Fox• Executive Director,
Plainview/Hale County Economic Development Corporation, Plainview, TX
• 30 years in radio broadcasting
• Commercial loan officer, Wells Fargo Bank
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Effective responses to the Cargill closure in
Plainview, TX Michael Fox,
Executive Director, Plainview Economic Development Corporation
Plainview, Hale County, TX• Plainview: 21,900 (2013)• Hale County: 35,800 (2013)• North East Texas, Panhandle Plains
area, between Lubbock and Amarillo• Economic structure
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Cargill Meat Solutions• Community partner for over 30 years• Employed 2,200• Processed 4,500 cattle daily• Many 2nd and 3rd generation workers• High wages• Supported local and area charitable
causes
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Texas Drought• Started in 2010• Record low rainfalls • Over 1,000,000 cattle in feed yards within
a 30 mile radius in 2010• 10 feed yard operations in the area for
sale, but few buyers
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Cargill Plant Idling• Warning signs, denials from company
officials• Community reactions• School District impact • Unemployment rate: spiked to 15%• Ripple effects: local vendors, retailers• United Way lost 40% of its contributions
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Steps to stabilize the local economy
• Job fairs• Buses to Friona, TX Cargill plant• $2,100,000 DOL Grant for re-training• South Plains College: Expansions of
Technical/Vocational Facility• Wayland Baptist University• Plainview Independent School District:
GED opportunities• Language training
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EDC Steps• City/County governments and EDC
prioritized Economic Development• Focus on retaining local industries to avoid
domino effect• Focus on diversification• Leverage wind and other alternative
energy industry developments
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Plainview Today• Predictions:
oMajor population dropo School closure
• Great resiliencyo Employment rate: 6.8%. o Sales Tax: Up 7%o Stable populationo School enrollment : Up over previous year
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Steven Perdia• General Manager, Strategy and
Planning, Canterbury Development Corporation, Christchurch, New Zealand
• Responsible for Christchurch Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) to 2031
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POST EARTHQUAKE LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHRISTCHURCHAPRIL 2015
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Overview
Workforce - Immediate response
The labour market today
The next few years
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Early Forecasts
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Early Forecasts
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
20222023
20242025
20262027
20282029
20302031
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000Christchurch Population Projections
Actual (estimated)BaselineDeclineAttractive CityWorking aged (15-64)Working aged (actual)
Source: CDC, Statistics NZ, Market Economics
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Initial Response
Joint Governance Group (Ministry, CERA, Local Gov, EDA, Chamber of Commerce) Skills Hub (job matching) facility for construction sector (Ministry) Skills shortage list and rapid application processing (Ministry) Information and connections portal (Ministry) Recruitment toolkit (EDA) Additional Trades Training (SCIRT) Maori Trades Training (Iwi/Polytech) Sector Workforce Plans (EDA/CERA) Modelling, Forecasts (EDA/Ministry) Information and Reporting (EDA/CERA) Migration Support Services expanded (Chamber)
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Current Forecasts
44GDP growth well above NZ average …
Jun
07
Dec
07
Jun
08
Dec
08
Jun
09
Dec
09
Jun
10
Dec
10
Jun
11
Dec
11
Jun
12
Dec
12
Jun
13
Dec
13
Jun
14
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Gross Domestic ProductAnnual Average Percent Change
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC
Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand
45Rebuilds share soon to reach peak 10%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
Canterbury Gross Domestic Product$m 2010 prices
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC
Actual CDC estimated underlying (non-rebuild)
Rebuild currently 7% of economy - rising to 10%
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2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Canterbury Sector OutputAnnual Average Percent Change
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC
Manufacturing Construction Wholesale & retail trade Agriculture
Sector weights in total GDP:Manufacturing 12%Construction 10%Whole/ret trade 10%Agriculture 7%Total 39%
… with underlying sectors doing well
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Labour market is booming …
Canterbury New Zealand
Unemployment rate 3.4% 5.6%
Labour market participation rate 72.9% 70.1%
Employment growth in 2014 8.8% 4.0%
Average earnings growth in 2014 5.5% 2.8%
Difficulty finding skilled labour (% bal. finding it hard) 37%** 33%
** South Island Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER, CDC
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Policy/Project Review
THEMES Optimise migration opportunity (attraction strategy, visitor strategy) Monitoring (Ministry, EDA) Transition from construction to underlying economy (Skills Hub)
PROJECTS Open visa scheme (review skills shortage list) Sector projects to support growth (education pathways, profiling, labour
attraction) Information and reporting is with EDA and ongoing Migration support services continues Jobs fairs, international student expos, business toolkits
49… attracting record levels of migration
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05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Canterbury Net International MigrationSource: Statistics New Zealand, CDC
Nu
mb
er
of
Pe
op
le
50Labour market changes to come
Transition as much labour as possible from construction to underlying economy Optimise the Canterbury Water Management Strategy (job growth) Innovation and entrepreneur economy Impact of housing supply
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CanterburyRegion of Opportunity
Questions and Answers
Upcoming Webinars:
May 13. Business Creation: The Fourth Leg of the Stool
June 11. Strategies to Retain Businesses After a Crisis (free)
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