Bolstering Workforce Adapting to Changing Economic Landscapes.

Bolstering WorkforceAdapting to Changing Economic

Landscapes

Speakers• Dr. Louise Comfort

o Director, Center for Disaster Management• Michael Fox

o Executive Director, Plainview/Hale County Economic Development Corporation

• Steven Perdiao General Manager, Strategy and Planning,

Canterbury Development Corporation

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Dr. Louise Comfort• Director, Center for Disaster

Management, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA

• Ph.D., Yale• Fellow, National Academy of Public

Administration• Author of six books, including:

• Designing Resilience: Preparing for Extreme Events

• Mega-Crises: Understanding the Prospects, Nature, Characteristics and the Effects of Cataclysmic Events

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The Impact of Extreme Events on Business OrganizationsLouise K. Comfort and Research Staff,Center for Disaster Management, University of PittsburghPittsburgh, PA 15260 Email: [email protected]

Building Resilience to Extreme Events

• Challenge to businesses: cost, losses, down time• Superstorm Sandy, 2012: $72 billion in estimated

losses; second only to Katrina, est. $135 billion• Directly affected 60 million people in 24 states• Economic losses estimated at $66 billion, NY, NJ• Storm caused cascading effects, disrupted

businesses, jobs lost, altered local economies

RISK IS INCREASING

• As society becomes more interconnected, losses increase

• Transportation, communication, energy, water, waste water distribution systems operate as interdependent services

• If one service is disrupted, demand increases on others; threat is compounded by aging infrastructure

• Businesses most affected by extreme events, yet, make least investment in risk reduction, preparedness

Innovative Approaches• Regions exposed to continuing risk have sought practical measures

of coping with hazards• National Association of Workforce Boards sought to identify

measures that enabled businesses to build resilient operations• CDM Study produced five sets of findings:

• Key provisions, Workforce Investment Act 1998, for disasters• Key strategies used by other regions exposed to risk• Characterized impact of Sandy on businesses, response to storm• Areas of strength, weakness in response operations• Recommendations: reducing consequences of disaster events

Workforce Investment Act (WIA)

• WIA intended to support communities in economic dislocation• WI Board interprets disaster impact as economic dislocation• WIA funds can be accessed, if federal disaster is declared• Under WIA, workers can be hired to:

• Provide information about jobs to those who lost their jobs• Participate in training programs for new jobs• Assist local community in developing coordinated response

to event• Assist local community in obtaining state assistance for jobs

WIA in Practice• Before an event

• Assess existing risk accurately• Understand structure of WIA system, its provisions, requirements• Assist organizations in developing business continuity plans

• During an event• Assess status of WIB members, their safety, immediate needs• Use knowledge base of operations, developed prior to event• Design alternative strategies for maintaining operations

• Mobilization for workforce recovery• Implement work process for recovery• Manage basic functions of the recovery process

Major Management Issues

• Design, enable communication flow, set up tracking system

• Manage information • Create partnerships• Develop funding sources• Map funding sources, create funding strategies• Address recurring workforce recovery issues: housing,

transportation, utilities, critical supplies• Design and implement business continuity plans, review,

reflect, and redesign business in changed environment

Impact of Sandy on Workforce

Table 1. Estimated Infrastructure Losses for New York and New Jersey post-Sandy. (Source: Aon Benfield, 2013, Table 9, p. 38)

Type Loss Type Loss

NYC Metropolitan Transit Authority 5.0 billion Marine (All states) 5.0 billion

Roads, Bridges, Tunnels (NY & NJ) 6.4 billion Recreational Boats (All states) 1.0 billion

Water, Waste, Sewage (NY & NJ) 4.7 billion New Jersey Transit 400 million

Utilities (NY & NJ) 2.5 billion Amtrak (Losses & Mitigation Costs) 336 million

NY/NJ Port Authority 2.0 billion NYC Schools 200 million

PATH Train System (NJ) 700 million NYC Hospitals 300 million

Table 2. Distribution of organizations identified in Sandy response news report content analysis cross-tabulated by source of funding and jurisdiction.

Jurisdictions

Funding Inter-

national National

Sub-national

State Sub-state

County Muni-cipal

Local Total

non profit

3 (0.5%)

57 (8.9%)

8 (1.2%)

6 (0.9%)

4 (0.6%)

1 (0.2%)

4 (0.6%)

29 (4.5%)

112 (17.4%)

private 42

(6.5%) 226

(35.2%) 31

(4.8%) 12

(1.9%) 7

(1.1%) -

2 (0.3%)

34 (5.3%)

354 (55.1%)

public 15

(2.3%) 76

(11.8%) 3

(0.5%) 45

(7%) 3

(0.5%) 7

(1.1%) 27

(4.2%) - 176

(27.4%)

Total 60

(9.3%) 359

(55.9%) 42

(6.5%) 63

(9.8%) 14

(2.2%) 8

(1.2%) 33

(5.1%) 63

(9.8%) 642

(100%)

The Emergency Response System following Sandy

Figure 2. Distribution of organizations engaged in response operations by jurisdiction and source of funding. Center pie-primary organizations; outer pie-secondary organizations.

Figure 3. Network map of Sandy response system, October 28-November 3, 2012. Symbols sized by number of transactions; shapes by funding source; color by jurisdiction.

Figure 4. Frequency of actions in emergency operations by source of funding and week in response and recovery, October 28, 2012-February 11, 2013.

Summary of findings regarding the impact of Sandy on business organizations

• 55.1% of organizations engaged in response operations following Superstorm Sandy are business organizations

• 54% of business organizations interacted w/ nonprofits, but donated funds, products; did not engage in direct operations

• National organizations were most active during response operations

• Business organizations played an important role in Sandy recovery operations, but were active only for short periods

Conclusions and recommendations for action• WIA 1998 represents opportunity for innovation, change, and

renewal in sustainable workforce development• Workforce investment systems constitute an organizational

infrastructure that connects public, private, and nonprofit organizations in disaster recovery

• Lack of preparedness leads to escalation of damage • Designing an interactive information infrastructure links

workforce investment with sustainable disaster management• Building community resilience creates a continuing process of

adaptive learning and action for…• …. all organizations – public, private, and nonprofit – in

regions exposed to risk.

Acknowledgments• I acknowledge, with thanks, the graduate student staff at the

Center for Disaster Management: B. Chalfant, J. E. Song, J. Yeo, Mengyao Chen, Brian Colella for assistance with analysis, graphics.

• Thanks and appreciation to Ronald Painter and Josh Copus, National Association of Workforce Boards, Washington, DC, for assistance in providing access to information and references.

• Warm thanks to the experienced managers who participated in the interviews and generously gave their time and insights.

Michael Fox• Executive Director,

Plainview/Hale County Economic Development Corporation, Plainview, TX

• 30 years in radio broadcasting

• Commercial loan officer, Wells Fargo Bank

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Effective responses to the Cargill closure in

Plainview, TX Michael Fox,

Executive Director, Plainview Economic Development Corporation

Plainview, Hale County, TX• Plainview: 21,900 (2013)• Hale County: 35,800 (2013)• North East Texas, Panhandle Plains

area, between Lubbock and Amarillo• Economic structure

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Cargill Meat Solutions• Community partner for over 30 years• Employed 2,200• Processed 4,500 cattle daily• Many 2nd and 3rd generation workers• High wages• Supported local and area charitable

causes

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Texas Drought• Started in 2010• Record low rainfalls • Over 1,000,000 cattle in feed yards within

a 30 mile radius in 2010• 10 feed yard operations in the area for

sale, but few buyers

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Cargill Plant Idling• Warning signs, denials from company

officials• Community reactions• School District impact • Unemployment rate: spiked to 15%• Ripple effects: local vendors, retailers• United Way lost 40% of its contributions

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Steps to stabilize the local economy

• Job fairs• Buses to Friona, TX Cargill plant• $2,100,000 DOL Grant for re-training• South Plains College: Expansions of

Technical/Vocational Facility• Wayland Baptist University• Plainview Independent School District:

GED opportunities• Language training

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EDC Steps• City/County governments and EDC

prioritized Economic Development• Focus on retaining local industries to avoid

domino effect• Focus on diversification• Leverage wind and other alternative

energy industry developments

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Plainview Today• Predictions:

oMajor population dropo School closure

• Great resiliencyo Employment rate: 6.8%. o Sales Tax: Up 7%o Stable populationo School enrollment : Up over previous year

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Steven Perdia• General Manager, Strategy and

Planning, Canterbury Development Corporation, Christchurch, New Zealand

• Responsible for Christchurch Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) to 2031

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POST EARTHQUAKE LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHRISTCHURCHAPRIL 2015

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Overview

Workforce - Immediate response

The labour market today

The next few years

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35

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Early Forecasts

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Early Forecasts

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

20302031

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000Christchurch Population Projections

Actual (estimated)BaselineDeclineAttractive CityWorking aged (15-64)Working aged (actual)

Source: CDC, Statistics NZ, Market Economics

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Initial Response

Joint Governance Group (Ministry, CERA, Local Gov, EDA, Chamber of Commerce) Skills Hub (job matching) facility for construction sector (Ministry) Skills shortage list and rapid application processing (Ministry) Information and connections portal (Ministry) Recruitment toolkit (EDA) Additional Trades Training (SCIRT) Maori Trades Training (Iwi/Polytech) Sector Workforce Plans (EDA/CERA) Modelling, Forecasts (EDA/Ministry) Information and Reporting (EDA/CERA) Migration Support Services expanded (Chamber)

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Current Forecasts

44GDP growth well above NZ average …

Jun

07

Dec

07

Jun

08

Dec

08

Jun

09

Dec

09

Jun

10

Dec

10

Jun

11

Dec

11

Jun

12

Dec

12

Jun

13

Dec

13

Jun

14

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Gross Domestic ProductAnnual Average Percent Change

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC

Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand

45Rebuilds share soon to reach peak 10%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

Canterbury Gross Domestic Product$m 2010 prices

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC

Actual CDC estimated underlying (non-rebuild)

Rebuild currently 7% of economy - rising to 10%

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2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Canterbury Sector OutputAnnual Average Percent Change

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC

Manufacturing Construction Wholesale & retail trade Agriculture

Sector weights in total GDP:Manufacturing 12%Construction 10%Whole/ret trade 10%Agriculture 7%Total 39%

… with underlying sectors doing well

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Labour market is booming …

Canterbury New Zealand

Unemployment rate 3.4% 5.6%

Labour market participation rate 72.9% 70.1%

Employment growth in 2014 8.8% 4.0%

Average earnings growth in 2014 5.5% 2.8%

Difficulty finding skilled labour (% bal. finding it hard) 37%** 33%

** South Island Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER, CDC

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Policy/Project Review

THEMES Optimise migration opportunity (attraction strategy, visitor strategy) Monitoring (Ministry, EDA) Transition from construction to underlying economy (Skills Hub)

PROJECTS Open visa scheme (review skills shortage list) Sector projects to support growth (education pathways, profiling, labour

attraction) Information and reporting is with EDA and ongoing Migration support services continues Jobs fairs, international student expos, business toolkits

49… attracting record levels of migration

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05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Canterbury Net International MigrationSource: Statistics New Zealand, CDC

Nu

mb

er

of

Pe

op

le

50Labour market changes to come

Transition as much labour as possible from construction to underlying economy Optimise the Canterbury Water Management Strategy (job growth) Innovation and entrepreneur economy Impact of housing supply

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CanterburyRegion of Opportunity

Questions and Answers

Upcoming Webinars:

May 13. Business Creation: The Fourth Leg of the Stool

June 11. Strategies to Retain Businesses After a Crisis (free)

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