ASSESSING NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE
IN PUGET SOUND
ASSESSING NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE
IN PUGET SOUNDCharles (“Si”) Simenstad1 & Curtis D. Tanner2
1School of Aquatic and Fishery SciencesUniversity of Washington2Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
For the Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project (PSNERP), Nearshore Science Team (NST)
33rdrd National Conference on Ecosystem RestorationNational Conference on Ecosystem Restoration
23 July 200923 July 2009
33rdrd National Conference on Ecosystem RestorationNational Conference on Ecosystem Restoration
23 July 200923 July 20091907 Ashel Curtis photograph of Everett, Washington from Rucker Hill
Janus is an ancient Roman, composite, obscure
god who is associated with doorways (ecosystem
structure that affects flows), beginnings
(disturbance; release), and transitions (change;
resilience). A usually two-faced god he looks to
the future and the past.
Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project (PSNERP)…
• …is a large-scale initiative to protect and restore natural processes and functions of nearshore ecosystems
• …is a General Investigation, jointly sponsored by Army COE and WDFWby Army COE and WDFW– Began in 2001, completion in 2011
• …is the nearshore component of the Puget Sound Partnership’s strategy to restore Puget Sound
• …may result in USACE construction authority and funding
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSIS
Objective: Detect and describe differences between the physical structure of Puget Sound nearshore environment in the past and the physical structure of the present, that is consistent with our conceptual model of the relationships among nearshore ecosystem processes, structure and function.
Approach: Assess change in types and magnitude of changes that have altered the historic functions, changes that have altered the historic functions, goods and services of natural nearshore ecosystems of Puget Sound over last ~125 yr
Scope and Focus:• nearshore ecosystem processes related to
hydrogeomorphic structure
• spatially explicit
• comprehensive, Sound-wide
• landscape/ecosystem organization
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISProcess and Products
Change Analysis Strategic
Needs
Future Risk
AssessmentHow might future growth and
development affect the
integrity of the nearshore?
Restoration &
Protection Feasibility
What has changed in the
nearshore? What ecosystem
functions, goods and services
are impaired?
Needs
AssessmentWhich of these
changes are
problematic and why?
Management
MeasuresWhat actions can we
take to protect and
restore the nearshore?
Protection
PortfolioIn what ways will we
improve the
nearshore?
Feasibility
ReportResults packaged for
Congressional approval
The shallow water of estuarine deltas & marine shorelines, from the top of the
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISDefinition of Nearshore Ecosystems
the top of the coastal bank to water depths where light supports plant growth and up rivers to the end of tidal influence
Berm/Backshore
Beachface
Low-tide terrace
BARRIERBEACH
Embayments
Stream delta
Vegetated flat
Channels
Tidal flat
Tidal delta
BARRIERESTUARY
BedrockUpland
CoastalWatersheds
Alluvial RiverValley
Vegetated Flats
Tidal flat
Tidal delta
Channels
BARRIERLAGOON
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISApproach: Inventory Change by Geomorphic Organization
Delta Beaches Rocky Coast
RIVERDELTA
POCKET BEACH
Bluff face
Berm/Backshore
Beachface
Low tide terrace
Berm/Backshore
Beachface
Low tide terraceAlluvial Floodplain
(surge plain)
High tide flat
Low tide flat BLUFF
BARRIERBEACH
Berm/Backshore
Beachface
Low tide terrace
ROCKYPLATFORM
Cliff
Platform
Typical coastal shoreforms in Puget Sound (from Shipman et al. 2008)
PSNERP NEARSHORE ECOSYSTEMSNomenclature and Architecture of
Hierarchical Geospatial Assessment Units
• Shoreforms – shoreline geomorphology classification (Shipman 2008)
• Drainage Units – natural watersheds constrained by drift cells
component boundaries
• Accounting Units – aggregation of all Drainage Units conforming to
drift cell components
• Process Units – summation of Accounting Units conforming to the • Process Units – summation of Accounting Units conforming to the
scale of dominant nearshore process regimes
– Shoreline Process Units (SPU) = drift cells (components: no
appreciable drift, drift to right, drift to left, convergence zone,
divergence zone), indicative of sediment delivery, transport, erosion
and deposition)
– Delta Process Units (DPU) = deltas (components: euryhaline
unvegetated; estuarine mixing; oligohaline; tidal freshwater) indicative
of fresh water-salt water mixing
[ Summarizing Units: (1) Sound-wide; (2) Sub-basin; (3) Sub-basin segments]
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISGeospatial Units
Shoreline Process Units Delta Process Units
Example of hierarchical organization of PSNERP geographic scale
units (GSU) for shoreline process units (SPU; left) and delta process
unit (DPU) in the Whidbey Basin, indicating components of littoral
drift cells (Drift Cell Type). Note that SPUs overlap (cross-hatching)
in the Divergence Zone and where there is No Appreciable Drift, and
where SPU and DPU overlap (stippling).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSIS
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSIS
Example of transitions in shoreform type to Artificial shoreform in the Whidbey Sub-basin (top) and from historic (left) to current (right) of different natural shoreforms (bottom).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISWetland Class Change (Tier 2)
HISTORIC CURRENT
Examples of changes in wetland classes from historic to current conditions, from Nooksack River delta (top) and Snohomish River delta (bottom).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISShoreline Alterations (Tier 2)
Examples of shoreline alterations (Tier 2) changes mapped for a segment of the Whidbey Sub-Basin; other features analyzed in this category of the Change Analysis included nearshore fill, nearshore railroads (active and abandoned), and percent change in wetland classes.
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISAdjacent Upland (Tier 3) and Watershed Area (Tier 4) Change
a. Adjacent Upland (Tier 3) b. Watershed Area (Tier 4)
Examples of land cover/land use and anthropomorphic features/stressors in the adjacent upland area (a) and the watershed area (b) for a region of the Whidbey Sub-basin. Features analyzed in the Change Analysis but now shown here include: categories of impervious surface, railroads (active and abandoned), dam locations (Tier 4 only), impounded drainage area (Tier 4 only), and percent of historic drainage area (Tier 4 only).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISEcosystem Functions Goods and Services Ranking
Plunging Platform
Beaches Bluffs Barriers
Open
Coastal
Inlets
Barrier
Estuaries
Barrier
Lagoons
Closed
Lagoons and
Marshes
River-
dominated
Wave-
dominated
Tide-
dominated Fan
Crops 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 14 12 13 11 8 52 29
Livestock 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 14 12 13 11 10 53 28Captured fisheries 6 4 5 2 8 12 9 7 3 14 10 13 11 1 140 13
Aquaculture 1 3 4 2 13 9 11 10 14 8 5 6 7 12 159 1
Wild foods 3 4 7 2 6 11 9 8 5 14 10 12 13 1 157 2
Timber and wood 1 2 5 13 12 7 10 4 8 14 11 9 6 3 137 14
Other fibers 1 2 3 11 5 6 8 7 9 14 12 13 10 4 132 19Biomass Fuel 1 2 8 13 11 4 9 5 7 14 10 12 6 3 148 5
2 3 5 6 4 7 10 8 9 14 13 11 12 1 130 21
5 8 9 13 6 4 2 7 11 14 12 10 3 1 124 24
2 3 5 7 4 8 6 10 9 14 13 12 11 1 145 7
1 2 3 11 6 7 10 9 8 14 12 13 5 4 142 9
2 3 5 13 4 12 8 7 9 14 10 11 6 1 145 7
2 3 4 8 6 10 11 9 7 14 12 13 5 1 133 17
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 14 13 12 9 1 133 17
1 5 3 13 10 9 7 4 2 11 12 6 8 14 154 4
2 3 4 6 5 7 11 8 10 14 12 13 9 1 137 14
2 3 5 7 6 10 8 4 9 14 12 13 11 1 128 22
2 3 4 6 5 7 10 9 8 14 12 13 11 1 124 24
2 3 5 4 6 9 8 7 12 14 13 11 10 1 120 27
EFG&S
Pro
vis
ion
ing
Food
Reg
ula
tin
g
Pollination
Erosion
Water purification and wate
Disease
Pests
Air quality regulation
Global Climate
Regional and local Climate
Water (quality)
Fiber
Fresh Water (quanitity)
Genetic resources
Biochemicals, natural medicienes
Sum of
"Range"
Order of Disimilarity
in EFG&S Ranking
Artificial and/or
Modified
Rocky Coast Beaches Embayments River Deltas
2 3 5 4 6 9 8 7 12 14 13 11 10 1 120 27
1 2 5 10 8 9 7 6 4 14 11 13 12 3 132 19
8 3 6 10 9 7 5 4 2 14 12 13 11 1 134 16
14 4 2 12 13 9 7 10 5 11 6 8 3 1 142 9
7 11 8 13 14 5 4 1 2 10 3 12 6 9 155 3
12 7 10 3 11 5 9 4 2 14 6 8 13 1 121 26
2 3 4 6 5 8 12 7 13 14 10 11 9 1 128 22
1 3 4 5 7 8 10 9 11 13 14 12 6 2 141 11
6 4 3 7 5 10 11 9 2 14 12 13 8 1 141 11
8 7 4 3 2 6 10 9 5 14 12 13 11 1 148 5
99 107 140 219 207 225 244 209 216 389 314 332 254 90
2 3 4 7 6 7 9 8 8 14 12 12 9 1 Lowest in series
1 3 5 13 5 7 10 9 9 14 12 13 11 1 Highest in series
13 9 8 11 12 8 10 9 12 6 11 7 10 13 Under 1 std.
2 3 4 7 5 6 10 8 9 14 12 13 11 1 Over 1 std.
RANK SUM
MODE
MEDIAN
RANGE
RANK
PhotosynthesisSu
pp
ort
ing
Cu
ltu
ral
Educational
Recreation and ecotourism
Nutrient Cycling
Soil Formation
Food Web
Pollination
Natural Hazards
Ethical
Existence
Example of ranking matrix used by PSNERP Nearshore Science Team to assess contributions to provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem functions, goods and services (EFG&S) by respective shoreforms (Tier 1). Ranking of relative impairment of EFG&S by shoreline alterations (Tier 2), adjacent upland change (Tier 3) and watershed area change (Tier 4) follow the same format.
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISGeodatabase
• Geodatabase
structure facilitates
looking at change
at several scales– Puget Sound– Sub-basins– Process units– Within-process – Within-process
unit componentso shoreformo drift cell
• PSNERP uses
this tool to
understand and
analyze nearshore
restoration and
preservation needs
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISResults Categories & Display
For each of the four
categories (tier), we
quantify nearshore
ecosystem change and
rank EFG&S impairment
of nearshore ecosystem
processes at four scales:processes at four scales:
1. Comprehensive, Puget
Sound-wide
2. Puget Sound (PSNERP-
defined) sub-basins
3. Within process units
4. Among attributes of
change within process
units
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISBasic Tabulation: Whidbey Sub-basin Example
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Tabulation: Current Basin and Process Unit
Hood Canal
Strait of Juan de
Fuca
North Central
South Central
San Juans/
Strait of Georgia
South Puget Sound
WhidbeyPuget Sound
Process Unit
Features
Drainage Area (km2)
2790 3231 502 6459 4176 4610 14687 36080
Nearshore Zone Area
(km2)155 181 113 263 580 287 550 2036
Features Shoreline Length (km)
395 329 249 648 1187 725 634 3969
Stream Confluences
656 259 126 611 356 641 277 2810
Drift Cell Summary
(%)
Convergence Zone
0.6 2.5 3.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.1
Divergence Zone
6.0 5.4 9.6 5.6 2.1 7.4 4.6 5.1
No Appreciable
Drift21.9 30.9 13.2 23.1 61.5 29.0 43.2 39.2
Transport Zone
69.2 61.2 74.2 70.4 35.3 62.9 51.2 54.6
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Tabulation: Shoreform Change
Hood Canal
Strait of Juan de
Fuca
North Central
South Central
San Juans/
Strait of Georgia
South Puget Sound
WhidbeyPuget Sound
Delta -50.6 -46.5 -100.0 -53.3 -73.6 -37.2 -47.1
Bluff-Backed Beach -2.9 -4.2 -3.6 -16.6 -7.6 -5.7 -8.1 -7.7
Barrier Beach -9.8 -2.4 -14.4 -24.8 -13.8 -11.0 -6.4 -11.9
Barrier Estuary -25.2 -20.7 -88.2 -41.9 -63.6 -30.1 -62.3 -44.4
Barrier Lagoon -21.2 -22.8 -52.8 -78.0 -50.6 -43.3 -50.0 -46.1
Closed Lagoon/Marsh
-36.3 8.4 -22.3 -89.1 -9.5 -74.9 -64.1 -48.4
Open Coastal Inlet -48.9 -44.6 -27.2 -52.1 -57.2 -35.0 -13.2 -45.3
Plunging Rocky -10.5 29.0 2.6 0 -10.3 0 -12.4 -9.3
Rocky Platform -8.3 4.8 -10.0 -16.9 -13.0 0 -4.1 -10.4
Pocket Beach -8.5 -11.9 14.2 -8.5 -9.8 0 -5.8 -9.5
Artificial 491.5 403.1 100 21021.1 5118.5 2574.1 4394.1 3443.0
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Tabulation: Shoreform Transition
84%
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISHistoric Shoreform Change Sound-Wide
*
*
*
*
*
*
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Shoreline Alterations: Wetland Classes
Hood Canal
Strait of Juan de
Fuca
North Central
South Central
San Juans/
Strait of Georgia
South Puget Sound
WhidbeyPuget Sound
Euryhaline Unvegetated
Historic Area (km2)
10.3 6.5 0 22.0 39.3 10.6 83.8 166.3
Current Area (km2)
4.9 6.4 0 4.3 29.9 7.5 76.6 125.8
Change (%) -52.3 -1.7 0 -80.4 -23.8 -29.4 -8.6 -24.4
Historic Area (km2)
12.6 3.7 12.3 18.8 45.0 14.1 57.7 157.1
Estuarine Mixing
(km2)157.1
Current Area (km2)
19.3 3.7 5.5 7.7 22.1 17.5 29.5 102.7
Change (%) 54.0 0.8 -54.9 -59.2 -50.9 23.9 -48.9 -34.6
Oligohaline Transition
Historic Area (km2)
0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 16.2 0.0 46.1 64.0
Current Area (km2)
0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.4
Change (%) -63.0 -46.2 -86.1 -84.0 -98.8 680.9 -98.7 -97.8
Tidal Freshwater
Historic Area (km2)
0.9 0.7 0.1 4.6 30.1 2.4 88.0 126.8
Current Area (km2)
0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.4 8.9 11.6
Change (%) -8.9 -18.0 73.9 -99.9 -97.3 -84.4 -89.9 -90.9
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Shoreline Alterations
Hood Canal
Strait of Juan de
Fuca
North Central
South Central
San Juans/
Strait of Georgia
South Puget Sound
WhidbeyPuget Sound
% of Shoreline
Length
Tidal Barrier 7.7 3.7 3.3 11.7 6.0 3.4 31.3 10.5
Nearshore Road
12.8 6.8 3.2 11.2 6.1 6.5 6.7 7.9
Abandoned RR
0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
Active RR 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.6 2.6 1.4 1.4
Armoring 21.2 16.1 9.8 62.8 14.0 34.5 22.5 27.0
Breakwater/Jetty (km) 0.87 4.7 1.49 8.83 15.53 0.73 8.97 37.23
Marina (km2) 0.13 0.23 0.2 3.08 2.04 0.33 1.02 6.33
Nearshore Fill (km2) 0.72 1.58 1.34 20.38 7.93 3.98 9.86 39.30
OWS (km2) 0.35 0.2 0.2 3.70 1.22 0.52 0.79 6.45
Parcels (per 10 km) 157 64 171.1 210.9 99.3 166.3 170.9 146.1
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Shoreform Composition--Transitions
. SHOREFORM TRANSITION (TIER1)
Non-Metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling (NMDS) plot and SIMPER multivariate analysis results for shoreform transitions in the process units (PU) of the Puget Sound Basin.
On
ly O
ne
Sa
mp
le in
Gro
up
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Shoreform Composition--Transitions
Sub-basin map of Sound-wide distribution of process unit (PU) groups with significant similar historic shoreform composition based on multivariate analysis.
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSound-Wide Shoreline Alterations: Sequential PU Change
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Shoreline alterations along sequential process units (PU) of the Strait of Juan de Fuca Sub-basin.
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISImpairment Due to Shoreline Alteration
Cumulative
stressors can
be identified
as spatially-
explicit “hot
spots” of spots” of
impairment
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISImpairment due to Shoreform Transition
Top right: Potential nearshore ecosystem impairment due to shoreform transitions (Tier 1) among Sound-wide process units (PU) symbolized by Impairment Bin.Top left: Frequency distribution of Impairment Scores.of Impairment Scores.Bottom: Range of Impairment Scores by Sub-basin. Boxplot shows the median, interquartile range (box length), outliers (cases with values between 1.5 and 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box), and extreme cases of individual variables (cases with values more than 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISImpairment due to Shoreline Alteration
Top right: Potential nearshore ecosystem impairment due to shoreline alterations (Tier 2) among Sound-wide process units (PU) symbolized by Impairment Bin.Top left: Frequency distribution of Impairment Scores.Bottom: Range of Impairment Scores by Sub-basin. Boxplot shows the median, interquartile range (box length), outliers (cases with values between 1.5 and 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box), and extreme cases of individual variables (cases with values more than 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISImpairment due to Adjacent Upland Change
Top left: Potential nearshore ecosystem impairment due to adjacent upland change (Tier3) among Sound-wide process units (PU) symbolized by Impairment Bin.Top right: Frequency distribution of Impairment Scores.Bottom: Range of Impairment Bottom: Range of Impairment Scores by Sub-basin. Boxplot shows the median, interquartile range (box length), outliers (cases with values between 1.5 and 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box), and extreme cases of individual variables (cases with values more than 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISImpairment due to Watershed Area Change
Top left: Potential nearshore ecosystem impairment due to watershed area change (Tier3) among Sound-wide process units (PU) symbolized by Impairment Bin.Top right: Frequency distribution of Impairment Scores.of Impairment Scores.Bottom: Range of Impairment Scores by Sub-basin. Boxplot shows the median, interquartile range (box length), outliers (cases with values between 1.5 and 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box), and extreme cases of individual variables (cases with values more than 3 box lengths from the upper or lower edge of the box).
PSNERP CHANGE ANALYSISSummary
• PSNRP Change Analysis documents historical change in geomorphic structure of deltas, embayments and beaches of Puget Sound
• Geospatial database and analyses facilitate:– selecting and planning restoration and preservation
portfolios– landscape analysis of adjacent and cumulative effects – landscape analysis of adjacent and cumulative effects
among stressors and restoration actions– relationship to nearshore ecosystem processes that
create and sustain shoreline geomorphology and function
– exploration of future change effects on alternative restoration and preservation strategies
• Uncertainties:– historic drivers relative to current and future– natural variability in nearshore geomorphology
Thank You!• Si Simenstad: [email protected]
• Curtis Tanner: [email protected]
• PSNERP Change Analysis document on-line ~late 2009; please site as:
Simenstad, C.A., M. Ramirez, J. Burke, M. Logsdon, H. Shipman, C. Davis, J. Fung, P. Bloch, C. Tanner, K. Fresh, D. Myers, E. Iverson, A. Bailey, C. Liblinter, W. Gerstel, and P. Schlenger. In prep. Historic Change and Impairment of Puget Sound Shorelines: Atlas and Interpretation of Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Project Change Analysis. Puget Sound Nearshore Report No. 2009-XX. Published by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, Washington, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, Washington.Olympia, Washington, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, Washington.
• PSNERP website: http://www.pugetsoundnearshore.org/
• PSNERP Change Analysis Geodatabase: (go to link from PSNERP website) http://www.nws.usace.army.mil/PublicMenu/Menu.cfm?sitename=PSNERP&pagename=Change_Analysis
• Thanks to MANY contributors:– PSNERP Nearshore Science Team (NST)/Change Analysis Working Group; C. Simenstad (Chair),
M. Logsdon, K. Fresh, D. Myers, H. Shipman, C. Tanner– UW; J. Burke, M. Ramirez – WDNR; P. Bloch– CommEnSpace; C. Davis, J. Fung– Anchor Environmental; P. Schlenger, E. Iverson, A. Bailey (SoundGIS), C. Kiblinger, W. Gerstel– UW Rivers History Group; B. Collins, A. Sheikh, C. Kiblinger, D. Montgomery, H. Greenberg ++