World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig (Chief) Patrick Gerland, Kirill Andreev, Nan Li, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg Sarada Ravinuthala, Chandra Yamarthy, Neena Koshy United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section www.unpopulation.org International seminar on Population Estimates and Projections: methodologies, innovations and estimation of target population applied to public policies Latin American Population Association (ALAP) - Research Network on Population Estimates and Projections, and National School of Statistics (ENCE) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), 9 -11 November 2011
45
Embed
World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision · International seminar on Population Estimates and Projections: methodologies, innovations and estimation of target population applied
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
World Population Prospects
The 2010 Revision
Gerhard K. Heilig (Chief)
Patrick Gerland, Kirill Andreev, Nan Li, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg
Sarada Ravinuthala, Chandra Yamarthy, Neena Koshy
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section
www.unpopulation.org
International seminar on Population Estimates and Projections: methodologies, innovations and estimation of target population applied to public policies
Latin American Population Association (ALAP) - Research Network on Population Estimates and Projections,
and National School of Statistics (ENCE) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), 9 -11 November 2011
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Team
Chief
Gerhard K. Heilig
Population Affairs
Officer
Danan Gu
Population Affairs
Officer
Nan Li
Population Affairs
Officer
Thomas
Spoorenberg
Population Affairs
Officer
Kirill Andreev
Population Affairs
Officer
Patrick Gerland
Editorial Assistant
Neena Koshy
Information
Systems Assistant
Sarada
Ravinuthala
Information
Systems Assistant
Chandrasekhar
Yamarthy
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Mandate
Prepare the World Population Prospects Official United Nations population projections, used throughout the UN System
Recent revisions prepared every second year
Latest revision: 2010 (230 countries)
22 revisions since the early 1950s
Prepare the World Urbanization Prospects Estimates and projections of urban population for 230 countries
Estimates and projections of major urban agglomerations (about 5000)
Latest revision: 2009
Since 1988
Publish results, develop methodology Web sites, wall charts, CD-ROMs/DVDs, databases
Model life tables, probabilistic projections (Bayesian Hierarchical Model)
Develop specialized databases and software DemoBase, DemoData, DataArchive
Estimation and projection software, probabilistic models, data checking
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
1
World Population Prospects: What we do
60% of Workload
Update and development of new
databases and software, server
and database maintenance, backup
Start of
WPP
Evaluation Adjustments
Data Collection
230 countries / areas
Uploading to Database
Calculation of Variants
Aggregation of Regions
Epidem. Modeling for AIDS Countries
3
CD-ROMs / DVDs
Online Database
Web Sites
Statistical Reports
Vol. 1, 2
Early Release Data
Wall Chart
25% of Workload
15% of Workload
Checking of Results
2
Methodological Report
(on web site)
Start of
WUP
Fixing of Errors
Data Collection, Estimation
Projection,
Aggregation, Checking
Output Production
0
Consulting / Feedback
Responding to clients
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
0
1. Census data + post-enumeration surveys (from United Nations Demographic Yearbook database and directly from National Statistical Offices)
2. All available demographic and health surveys (DHS, DSS, MICS, WHS, etc.) for estimating fertility and mortality
3. Estimates from population and vital registers (from statistical reports of National Statistical Offices or their web sites)
4. Scientific reports and data collections (Human Mortality Database, child mortality estimates, etc.)
5. Data and estimates provided by other international agencies (CELADE, Regional Commissions, EUROSTAT, ESCAP, UNICEF, UNAIDS, WHO)
WPP data sources
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology
The UN approach to estimating population
(by age and sex), fertility, mortality and migration
Availability & Data Quality
1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Censuses (WPP2010) 1
Country / area
Year of last
census
Years since
last census Cayman Islands 1999 10
Iraq 1997 13
Turkmenistan 1995 14
Pitcairn 1992 18
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1991 18
Myanmar 1991 18
Uzbekistan 1989 20
Somalia 1986 23
Eritrea 1984 25
Dem. Rep. of the Congo 1984 25
Angola 1984 26
Afghanistan 1979 31
Lebanon 1943 67
Countries where last census was conducted
more than 10 years ago (as of 2010)
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000N
ew
Zeala
nd
Neth
erlands
Fin
land
Bulg
aria
Hungary
Pola
nd
Norw
ay
Icela
nd
Denm
ark
Belg
ium
Fra
nce
Sw
eden
United S
tate
s o
f Am
erica
Austr
iaSw
itzerland
UK:
Engla
nd a
nd W
ale
sAustr
alia
Canada
Port
ugal
Japan
Italy
Czech R
epublic
Latv
iaBela
rus
Lithuania
Spain
Luxem
bourg
Germ
any,
Federa
l Republic
of
Ukra
ine
Esto
nia
Germ
an D
em
ocra
tic R
epublic
Panam
aIs
rael
Rom
ania
Russia
n F
edera
tion
Chile
Slo
vakia
Cuba
Syrian A
rab R
epublic
Slo
venia
Peru
Gre
ece
Haiti
Malta
San M
arino
Cypru
sVenezuela
(Bolivarian R
ep.
Azerb
aijan
Ecuador
Kyrg
yzsta
nBra
zil
Taiw
an,
Pro
vin
ce o
f Chin
aPhilip
pin
es
Republic
of
Kore
aPuert
o R
ico
Cost
a R
ica
Bolivia
Trinid
ad a
nd T
obago
Chin
a,
Hong K
ong S
AR
Fiji
Arm
enia
Form
er
Yugosla
via
Thailand
Gre
enla
nd
Uru
guay
Moro
cco
Germ
any
Mauritius:
Isla
nd o
f M
auritius
Irela
nd
Mexic
oIn
dia
Republic
of
Mold
ova
Form
er
Eth
iopia
Arg
entina
UK:
Scotland
Sin
gapore
Kazakhsta
nEth
iopia
UK:
Nort
hern
Ire
land
Nic
ara
gua
Hondura
sSain
t Lucia
Jord
an
Form
er
Czechoslo
vakia
Myanm
ar
United K
ingdom
Andorr
aIr
an (
Isla
mic
Republic
of)
Guate
mala
Egypt
Bahra
inJa
maic
aSri L
anka
Serb
ia a
nd M
onte
negro
Belize
Iraq
Colo
mbia
Barb
ados
Mozam
biq
ue
Tunis
iaG
uyana
Mala
ysia
: Penin
sula
r M
ala
ysia
Lesoth
oEl Salv
ador
Bots
wana
Seychelles
Bangla
desh
Mauritius:
Rodrigues
Buru
ndi
Turk
ey
Kuw
ait
Benin
Antigua a
nd B
arb
uda
Bru
nei D
aru
ssala
mD
om
inic
aSw
aziland
Mala
ysia
Gre
nada
Uzbekis
tan
Mala
wi
Cro
atia
Sain
t H
ele
na:
Trista
n d
aM
ali
Mauritius
Alg
eria
Chad
Mart
iniq
ue
Zim
babw
eIn
donesia
Sain
t Kitts
and N
evis
Pitcairn
Fre
nch P
oly
nesia
Georg
iaSolo
mon I
sla
nds
Kenya
Nig
er
Cape V
erd
eLao P
eople
's D
em
. Republic
Para
guay
Dem
. Rep.
of
the C
ongo
Guadelo
upe
Afg
hanis
tan
Lie
chte
nste
inTFYR M
acedonia
Faero
e I
sla
nds
Berm
uda
Réunio
nCam
bodia
Pakis
tan
Baham
as
Neth
erlands A
ntilles
Dom
inic
an R
epublic
Gam
bia
Chin
a,
Macao S
AR
Mald
ives
Tajikis
tan
Papua N
ew
Guin
ea
Chin
aSain
t Vin
cent
/ G
renadin
es
Mala
ysia
: Sabah
Nepal
Mala
ysia
: Sara
wak
Zam
bia
Mongolia
Monts
err
at
Alb
ania
New
Cale
donia
Mars
hall I
sla
nds
Tonga
Sudan
Kirib
ati
Cam
ero
on
Maurita
nia
Surinam
eLib
yan A
rab J
am
ahiriy
aYem
en
Burk
ina F
aso
Togo
Qata
rVie
t N
am
Sam
oa
Niu
eO
man
Vanuatu
Guin
ea
Madagascar
Rw
anda
UR o
f Tanzania
Centr
al Afr
ican R
epublic
Equato
rial G
uin
ea
Com
oro
sSaudi Ara
bia
Cook I
sla
nds
Bhuta
nCongo
Gabon
Sie
rra L
eone
Senegal
Nam
ibia
Aru
ba
Bosnia
and H
erz
egovin
aG
uin
ea-B
issau
Lib
eria
Nig
eria
South
Afr
ica
Côte
d'Ivoire
Mic
ronesia
(Fed.
Sta
tes o
f)Yem
en:
Form
er
Dem
. Yem
en
United A
rab E
mirate
sLebanon
Occupie
d P
ale
stinia
n T
err
.Is
le o
f M
an
Angola
Dem
. People
's R
ep.
of
Kore
aD
jibouti
Eritr
ea
Ghana
Monaco
Nauru
Pala
uSão T
om
é a
nd P
ríncip
eSom
alia
Turk
menis
tan
Tuvalu
Uganda
Fre
nch G
uia
na
Form
er
USSR
Channel Is
lands:
Guern
sey
Sain
t H
ele
na e
x.
dep.
Monte
negro
Serb
iaTim
or-
Leste
UR o
f Tanzania
: Zanzib
ar
UR o
f Tanzania
: Tanganyik
aW
este
rn S
ahara
Caym
an I
sla
nds
Coco
s (
Keeling)
Isla
nds
Turk
s a
nd C
aic
os I
sla
nds
British V
irgin
Isla
nds
Am
erican S
am
oa
Norf
olk
Isla
nd
United S
tate
s V
irgin
Isla
nds
Christ
mas I
sla
nd
2005-08
2000-04
1995-99
1990-94
1985-89
1980-84
1975-79
1970-74
1965-69
1960-64
1955-59
1950-54
Population statistics are sufficient for cohort component projection.
Projection benefits significantly from Census data.
Population statistics Insufficient for cohort component projection.
Projection can be done only with Census data.
Figure 2: Data Availability from Estimates.
Population in five-year age groups by sex: Number of data
points 1950-2008 in five-year intervals
Source: UNPD, DemoData. Chart by GKH.
Population statistics usually sufficent for cohort component projection.
Estimation often can be improved with Census data.
Register Data: Population by Age and Sex
Sufficient for cohort-component projection
Partially sufficient for cohort-component projection
Not sufficient for projection
≈ 2/3 of countries have insufficient
population estimates by age and sex
to establish consistent time-series
from 1950 to present
1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Child Mortality Estimation (WPP2010) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
61 Countries have child mortality information from before 2004
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Adult Mortality Estimation (WPP2010) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
74 Countries have no information on adult mortality at all !
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Fertility Estimation (WPP2010) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
62 Countries have only fertility information from before 2004
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Population from Censuses 1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Population from Censuses 1
Under-reported migrant workers
Under-reported births
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 1q0, 5q0 (Senegal) 1
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns D
epa
rtm
en
t o
f E
co
no
mic
an
d S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ula
tion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York