Population Projections - Definition | Empirically based calculations of future or past population numbers under specified assumptions about changes in population growth and its components. | From census bureau -- “Projections are estimates of the population for future dates. They illustrate plausible courses of future population change based on assumptions about future births, deaths, international migration, and domestic migration.”
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Population Projections - DefinitionEmpirically based calculations of future or past population numbers under specified assumptions about changes in population growth and its components.
From census bureau -- “Projections are estimates of the population for future dates. They illustrate plausible courses of future population change based on assumptions about future births, deaths, international migration, and domestic migration.”
Population projections and estimates 1. Projections - uses
i. refer to dates for which there are no observed data ii. Basis for decision making/policy
iii. Basis for understanding components of change/implications of change
2. Estimates - uses
i. Basis for federal funding allocations ii. generating denominator for rates
1
Population Projections 1. Estimates of future population size, age structure
a. Requires assumptions about mortality,
fertility, migration
2. Shorter-term estimates
a. Depend less on assumptions because people
are already born
b. Relatively fixed characteristics vs. relatively
variable characteristics 1
Value of short-term projections
1. Depict likely changes in group composition
(e.g., elderly, near-elderly, others)
a. Identify, quantify potential policy issues
2. Understand process of cohort replacement
a. Effects of cohort size and characteristics
2
Projections of group characteristics based on one census - very simple method
1. Forward survive population by age (and sex) a. Use life table survival ratios