Population Projections

1General Register Office

forS C O T L A N D

information about Scotland's people

Population Projections

Andrew White, Assistant Statistician

General Register Office for Scotland

Centre for Housing Market Analysis (CHMA)

29 January 2009


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Presentation Overview

Housing Need & Demand Assessment Guidance (HNDA) 2008 refers to GROS population

projections. It also refers to GROS household projections which are based on these.

• Methodology and assumptions• Strengths and weaknesses of (GROS) projections• Results and available data• Developments and future plans


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Key points

• Projections produced every two years for Scotland, Council areas, NHS Board areas and National Parks; split by age and sex

• Results available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/popproj

• Use latest population estimates as base year

• latest projections are 2006-based, mostly published Jan ‘08

• Expect to publish 2008-based in Dec ’09 / Jan ’10

• Controlled to be consistent with national projections produced by ONS

• Results published for up to 25 years ahead


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Calculating population projections

• Start with population for base year• Add on births, subtract deaths, account for migration• Age everyone on by a year• Repeat

• Assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration required

• These are based on last few years data as well as a consultation exercise

• Local area assumptions are consistent with Scotland level assumptions


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Assumptions: Fertility & Mortality• Fertility

– The Scottish Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is assumed to fall after an initial increase

– Local fertility levels are calculated by comparing the number of births that would be expected if the Scotland level fertility rates applied to the number of births observed over the last 5 years.

• Mortality– Scottish mortality rates are assumed to continue to fall but remain

higher than in the rest of the UK

– Local mortality levels are calculated by comparing the number of deaths that would be expected if the Scotland level fertility rates applied to the number of deaths observed over the last 5 years.


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Assumption: Migration• Migration

– No comprehensive system measuring migration so estimates of migration based on survey data and best proxy data available

• Long term international Migration (>12 months) - International Passenger Survey (IPS)

• Rest UK Migration / within Scotland – NHS Central Register (NHSCR) and Community Health Index (CHI)

– From 2013 there is projected be an annual net inflow of 8,500 people to Scotland

– Migration assumptions for areas within Scotland are based on migration over last 5 years controlled to the Scotland total. Local authorities are then consulted and assumptions amended appropriately.


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Strengths/Weaknesses• Strengths(?) of GROS projections

– Have access to best available data

– Consistent across Scotland and with National projections

– Easy to understand

• Weaknesses(?) of GROS projections– Migration data

– do not take account of predicted changes in house building, other planned policy changes or changes in economic circumstances

• Weaknesses of projections in general– Projections less reliable for smaller areas

– Projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go


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Projected population as % of estimated population, 20072006-based

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

Ab

erd

ee

n C

ity

Ab

erd

ee

nsh

ire

An

gu

s

Arg

yll

& B

ute

Cla

ckm

an

na

nsh

ire

Du

mfr

ies &

Ga

llow

ay

Du

nd

ee

City

Ea

st

Ayrs

hir

e

Ea

st

Du

nb

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on

sh

ire

Ea

st

Lo

thia

n

Ea

st

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sh

ire

Ed

inb

urg

h,

City o

f

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an

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r

Fa

lkir

k

Fife

Gla

sg

ow

City

Hig

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nd

Inve

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de

Mid

loth

ian

Mo

ray

No

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Ayrs

hir

e

No

rth

La

na

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ire

Ork

ne

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sla

nd

s

Pe

rth

& K

inro

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Sco

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h B

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Sh

etla

nd

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s

So

uth

Ayrs

hir

e

So

uth

La

na

rksh

ire

Stirl

ing

West

Du

nb

art

on

sh

ire

We

st

Lo

thia

n


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Projected population as % of estimated population, 20072004-based

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

Ab

erd

ee

n C

ity

Ab

erd

ee

nsh

ire

An

gu

s

Arg

yll

& B

ute

Cla

ckm

an

na

nsh

ire

Du

mfr

ies &

Ga

llow

ay

Du

nd

ee

City

Ea

st

Ayrs

hir

e

Ea

st

Du

nb

art

on

sh

ire

Ea

st

Lo

thia

n

Ea

st

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nfr

ew

sh

ire

Ed

inb

urg

h,

City

of

Eile

an

Sia

r

Fa

lkir

k

Fife

Gla

sg

ow

City

Hig

hla

nd

Inve

rcly

de

Mid

loth

ian

Mo

ray

No

rth

Ayrs

hir

e

No

rth

La

na

rksh

ire

Ork

ne

y I

sla

nd

s

Pe

rth

& K

inro

ss

Re

nfr

ew

sh

ire

Sco

ttis

h B

ord

ers

Sh

etla

nd

Isla

nd

s

So

uth

Ayrs

hir

e

So

uth

La

na

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ire

Stirl

ing

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st

Du

nb

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on

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We

st

Lo

thia

n


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Population, Scotland, actual and projected, 1981-2081

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

1 2006-based projection


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Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the 2006-based principal and selected variant projections, 1981-2081

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(M

illi

on

s)

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

HM = High migrationHF = High fertilityHL = High life expectancyP = Principal projectionLL = Low life expectancyLF = Low fertilityLM = Low migrationNC = Natural change only

HM

HF

HL

P

LL

LF

LM

NC


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Results of the 2006-Based Sub-National Projections


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Most councils adjacent, or close to, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size whereas other

large urban areas are projected to

decline


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Projected percentage population change (2006-based), Council area, 2006 - 2031

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Inve

rcly

de

Ea

st D

un

ba

rto

nsh

ire

Sh

etla

nd

Isl

an

ds

Ab

erd

ee

n C

ity

Du

nd

ee

City

We

st D

un

ba

rto

nsh

ire

Re

nfr

ew

shir

e

Eile

an

Sia

r

Lo

ch L

om

on

d &

Tro

ssa

chs

NP

Ea

st A

yrsh

ire

Mid

loth

ian

No

rth

Ayr

shir

e

Du

mfr

ies

& G

allo

wa

y

Mo

ray

Arg

yll &

Bu

te

Gla

sgo

w C

ity

So

uth

Ayr

shir

e

Ea

st R

en

fre

wsh

ire

No

rth

La

na

rksh

ire

An

gu

s

SC

OT

LA

ND

Fa

lkir

k

Cla

ckm

an

na

nsh

ire

So

uth

La

na

rksh

ire

Hig

hla

nd

Stir

ling

Fife

Ork

ne

y Is

lan

ds

Sco

ttis

h B

ord

ers

Ed

inb

urg

h,

City

of

Ca

irn

go

rms

NP

Ab

erd

ee

nsh

ire

Ea

st L

oth

ian

We

st L

oth

ian

Pe

rth

& K

inro

ss

Pe

rce

nta

ge

ch

an

ge


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Projected population change by age group, 2006-2031, City of Edinburgh

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+

Per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e

Edinburgh, City of Scotland


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Projected population change by age group, 2006-2031, Dumfries & Galloway

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+

Per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e

Dumfries & Gallow ay Scotland


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Projected population change by age group, 2006-2031, Inverclyde

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+

Per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e

Inverclyde Scotland


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Starting age structure


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Migrants as percentage of population by age, 2002-2006, City of Edinburgh

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 &over

Single year of age

Per

centa

ge o

f ag

e g

roup

In migrants Out migrants Net migrants


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Migrants as percentage of population by age, 2002-2006, Dumfries & Galloway

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 &over

Single year of age

Per

cen

tage o

f ag

e gro

up



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Migrants as percentage of population by age, 2002-2006, Inverclyde

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 &over

Single year of age

Per

cent

age

of a

ge g

roup



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Developments

• ‘Tayside Report’• Improved migration data on GROS website• Improve migration estimates: inter-departmental taskforce• Data used to produce 2006-based sub-national projections

has been made available in POPGROUP format• Work ongoing to provide datazone level data and guidance

to allow councils to produce sub-council projections• Strategic Development Planning Authority area

projections due later this year• More Variant Projections?


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Summary• Referred to in the HNDA guidance

• Usually produced every two years

• Available from www.gro-scotland.gov.uk for Council areas, NHS Board areas and National Parks by single year of age and sex

• 2008-based Sub-National Projections due late 2009 or early 2010

• Consistent across Scotland and easy to interpret

• Trend-based so don’t account for changes in house building, policy or economic circumstances


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Contact information

Andrew White

Tel: 0131 314 4388

GROS Customer services

Email: [email protected]

Tel: 0131 314 4243

Population Projections

Documents