VanLuong.blogspot.com NCCT

7/31/2019 VanLuong.blogspot.com NCCT

1/73

TRNG I HC KINH TTHNH PH HCH MINH

KHOA TI CHNH DOANH NGHIP

TI CHNH CNG TY A QUC GIA - CASE STYDY 2

GENERAL MOTOR

CNG TY TOYOTA

CNG TY DCH V K THUT LAJOLLA

GVHD: PGS.TS. Nguyn ThLin Hoa

Nhm SV thc hin:

1. Nguyn ThThu H2. Trn ThHoi3. Tn Tht Khnh Hong4. Trn ThNguyn Hng5. Phan Tin Thun


2/73

MC LC

CHNG 1 ........................................................................................................ 1

CASE 2A: NHY CM CNH TRANH TI GENERAL MOTORS ...... 1

I. TNG QUAN V GENERAL MOTORS ................................................. 1

1. Thng trm General Motors: .................................................................... 1

2. Tnh hnh kinh doanh General Motors ..................................................... 3

3. Phn tch bo co ti chnh ....................................................................... 5

3.1 V thti chnh GM nm 2000 .......................................................... 5

3.2 Ti chnh Qu 1 Nm 2001.............................................................. 7

II. CHNH SCH PHNG NGA CHNH THC CA GM .................... 10

1. Treasurers office ................................................................................... 10

1.1. Trch nhim ca Treasurers office ................................................. 10

1.2. Hot ng ca Treasurers office .................................................... 10

1.2.1. Cc hot ng chnh .................................................................. 10

1.2.2. Chin lc ................................................................................. 10

1.3. Ccu t chc ca Treasurers Office ............................................ 11

2. Chin lc phng nga ri ro ca cng ty ............................................. 11

2.1. Mc Tiu .......................................................................................... 11

2.2. Cch Thc Phng Nga Ca Cng Ty ............................................ 12

III. NHY CM CNH TRANH .......................................................... 14

1. Ngun gc nhy cm cnh tranh ca GM ......................................... 14

2.1 Mt s ginh ................................................................................. 16

2.2 o lng nhy cm cnh tranh .................................................... 18


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2.3 Phn tch nhyHin gi ca tn tht ........................................ 19

2.4 M phng Monte Carlo ..................................................................... 21

2.5 nhy cm tng quan ng Yn ca GM ..................................... 23

3. Gii php cho vn qun tr nhy cm cnh tranh i vi ng Yn

ca GM ....................................................................................................... 23

3.1 S Dng Chin Lc Ti Chnh Qun Tr Ri Ro Nhy Cm

Cnh Tranh.............................................................................................. 24

3.2. S Dng Real Options Phng Nga Ri Ro Nhy Cm Cnh

Tranh ....................................................................................................... 26

CHNG 2 ...................................................................................................... 30

NHY CM KINH OANH CA TOYOTA TI CHU U .............. 30

I. Gii thiu v Toyota ................................................................................... 31

II. Phn tch c bn ........................................................................................ 36

1. Tnh hnh th trng chung chu u v ng Euro: .............................. 36

2. Tnh hnh kinh doanh ca Toyota ti chu u: ...................................... 39

III. MINH CH HOT NG KINH DOANH CA TOYOTA TI TH

TRNG CHU U. .................................................................................. 44

1.Toyota v ngnh cng nghip sn xut xe hi ........................................ 44

2. S bin ng tin t................................................................................ 46

3.Cch thc qun l ph hp ng ph tnh hnh ................................... 47

IV. XUT HNG GII QUYT ........................................................ 48

2. Liu vn c c gii quyt khi nc Anh gia nhp th trng tin t

chung chu u............................................................................................ 51

3. Phn loi cc vn trong ngn hn v di hn ca Toyota ti chu u

.................................................................................................................... 52


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5/73

DANH MC BNG BIU

Bng 1.1: Mc tiu ca chin lc phng nga ca cc cng ty phi ti chnh

M (%) ............................................................................................................. 11

Bng 1.2 Cc ginh ....................................................................................... 17

Bng 1.3 D liu tgi JPY/US .................................................................... 18

Bng 1.4 d liu cho phn tch nhy ............................................................ 19

Bng 1.5 Kt quphn tch nhy ................................................................. 19

Bng 1.6 nhy cm tng hp ....................................................................... 23

Bng 1.7 Tng nhy cm lin kt ................................................................ 23

Bng 2.1 ba nh sn xut t hng u th gii nm 2010 ............................. 34

Bng 2.2 Li nhun rng tnh theo khu vc ca Toyota cng bngy31/03/2007 ........................................................................................................ 35

Bng 2.3 tnh hnh kinh doanh v th phn qua cc nm ti chu u............... 40


6/73

DANH MC HNH

Hnh 1.1 Cc nhn hiu ti Canada, Chu u, MLa Tinh, v Chu Thinh ng......................................................................................................... 5

Hnh 1.2 EPS thu nhp mi c phn ca GM .................................................. 8

Hnh 1.3 Tgi JPY/US giai on 1/198008/2001 .................................. 9

Hnh 1.4 Phn phi % thay i tgi JPY/US .............................................. 22

Hnh 1.5 Phn phi hin gi tn tht ( triu $).................................................. 22

Hnh 2.1 ng xp hng ton cu ca cc nh sn xut t c thng k mi

nm bi T Chc Cc Nh Sn ut T Quc T OICA................................ 34Hnh 2.2 Tnh hnh kinh doanh ca Toyota qua cc nm. ................................ 40

Hnh 2.3 Th phn kinh doanh ca Toyota qua cc nm. ................................. 41

Hnh 2.4 lch spht trin ca Toyota ti Chu u ......................................... 42

Hnh 2.5 Quy trnh kinh doanh ca tp on Toyota nm 2001 ....................... 43

Hnh 2.6 Slng xe t c sn xut Chu u ....................................... 44

Hnh 2.7 Cu trc th phn ca cng ty Toyota ti chu u ............................. 45

Hnh 2.8 t gi giao dch hng ngy ca Yn so vi Euro ............................... 46

Hnh 2.9 t gi giao dch hng ngy ca ng Anh so vi Euro ...................... 48

Hnh 3.1 Tgi trung bnh hng thng: J$/$ .................................................... 63

Hnh 3.2 Tgi bnh qun hng thng: peso Mexico/ US ollar.................... 64

Hnh 3.3 Tgi bnh qun hng thng: ng olivar/ ng USD. .................. 65


7/73

TI CHNH CNG TY A QUC GIA CASE STUDY 2

Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip 06 K34 Trang 1

CHNG 1

CASE 2A: NHY CM CNHTRANH TI GENERAL

MOTORS

I. TNG QUAN V GENERAL MOTORS

1. Thng trm General Motors:

Nm 1908: GM c thnh lp bi William urant, mt nh sn xut xe

nga ko Flint, tiu bang Michigan ca nc M. an u cng ty ch c duy

nht thng hiu uick, nhng vo nm tip theo mua thm Oldsmobile,

Cng ty t Oakland (sau ny l Pontiac), Cadillac, v Rapid Motor VehicleCo. (sau ny l GMC).

Nm 1911: p ri GM, ng urant ra thnh lp mt cng ty t ring

cng vi tay ua Louis Chevrolet. urant tr v lm ch tch GM vo nm

1916, v GM mua Chevrolet vo nm 1918.

Nm 1919: GM Acceptance Corp. (GMAC) c thnh lp cung cp

dch vti chnh cho khch mua t GM.

Nm 1927: GM ra mt Cadillac LaSalle, mt mu t c thit k mmmi v thi trang, khc hn nhngchic xe hp cng nhc v ging xe nga

ko trc .


8/73



Nm 1929: GM mua c phn kim sot nh sn xut t c Adam

Opel. Trong sut thp nin 20, GM bt u bnh trng cc th trng nc

ngoi, nh chu u, Argentina, razil, v Trung Quc.

Nm 1936-1937: Hng ngn cng nhn GM vy kncc nh my Flint, nh cng 44 ngy i tng lng v mt s quyn li khc. H pht

l yu cu gii tn khinh my ca ta n, v cuc nh cng ch chm dt

khi GM tr thnhnh sn xut t u tin ngi vo bn m phn vi Nghip

on ngnh t M (UAW), t chc bo v quyn li ngi lao ng trong

ngnh t c thnh lp vo nm 1935. S nhng b ca GM l chin thng

quan trng u tin ca UAW v khuyn khch phong tro cng nhn trn ton

nc M.

Nm 1942-45: GM v mt s cng ty t khc chuyn sang sn xut

hng qun s. GM sn xut tr gi hng ha ln ti hn 12 t US, bao gm

my bay, xe tng, ng c diesel tu bin, xe ti, sng my v n.

Nm 1948: GM ra mt ng c V8 u tin trn th gii, lp chocc xe

Cadillac v Oldsmobile.

Nm 1953: Li ca ch tch GM Charles Erwin Wilson - Ci g tt cho

GM l tt cho nc M - c trch dn trong phin iu trn trc Thng

vin a ng ln v tr trng Quc phng M di thi Tng thng

Eisenhower. Thc ra, chnh xc cu ng ni l: Trong nhiu nm qua ti

lun ngh rng ci g tt cho t nc th cng tt cho GM, v ngc li. t

chp s hiu lm ny, ng vn c Thng vin thng qua tr thnh

trng Quc phng M.

Nm 1953: Chevrolet ra mt Corvette, mu xe th thao sn xut thc tu tin, vi gi bn 3.498 US.

Nm 1965: Lut s Ralph Nader xut bn cun Unsafe At Any Speed

(Khng an ton bt c tc no), ni ti vic thiu cc trang thit b an ton

ca t, c bit l mu Chevrolet Corvair ca GM. Sau mt nm, cc quy

nh v an ton i vi xe hi ra i. ng Nader cng kin GM xm phm i

t khi thu thm t theo di ng. Nader thng kin 425.000 US v dng s

tin phc v nhiu hot ng bo v quyn li ngi tiu dng khc.


9/73


10/73


11/73



uick, Chevrolet, GMC v Cadillac.

Hnh 1.1 Cc nhn hiu ti Canada, Chu u, MLa Tinh, v Chu Thi Bnh

Dng

3. Phn tch bo co ti chnh

3.1 Vthti chnh GM nm 2000

Nm 2000, doanh thu ton cu t 185 t $. Bao gm cc mn hng c

th, thu nhp cao thnh trong lch scng ty t 8.58$ mi c phn thng.

Thu nhp ny gim xung 8.62$ nm 1999, nhng vn cn c tha ra cc

p lc gi trong cc thtrng ln nht ca chng ta ton th gii.

GM Bc M thu nhp 4.4 t$, khng bao gm cc mc c th, trn sc

mnh ca doanh sngnh Ml 17.8 tn v. GM bo co t phn khc

th trng chnh M, bao gm midsize cars, midsize SUVs, v large

SUVs. GMAC c thu nhp 2 nm lin tip , tng 1.6 t$ v nh du 6

nm lin tip tng trng thu nhp.

GM Chu u v Chu Thi nh ng bo co lcho nm. Ton bth phn M st gim 1% n 27.8%, trong khi th phn ton cu ca GM

gim mt na im cn 15.1%.

GM c ccc im tt v xu trong nm 2000. V mt tch cc, doanh

thu t cao th 2, do doanh stng. Ngc li, t l, thu nhp rng, EPS, v li

nhun bin, tt cu gim.


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Bo co thu nhp ca GM nm 2000


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3.2 Ti chnh Qu 1 Nm 2001

o co thu nhphp nht

GENERAL MOTORS CORPORA

AND SUBSIDIARIES

Q1.2001 Q1. 2000

Total net sales and revenues $42,615 $46,858

Cost of sales and other expenses 34,510 37,141

Selling, general, and administrative

expenses

5,390 4,857

Interest expense 2,211 2,228

Total costs and expenses 42,111 44,226

income before income taxes and

minority interests

504 2,632

Income tax expense 208 783

Equity income/(loss) and minority

interests

(59) (66)

Net income 237 1,783

Dividends on preference stocks (28) (29)

Earnings attributable to common

stocks

$209 $1,754

Basic earnings (losses) per share

attributable to common stocks

Earnings per share attributable to $1-

2/3 par value

$0.54 $2.88


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Earnings per share attributable to Class $(0.10) $(0.08)

oanh thu qu 1 nm 2001 gim xung khi chi ph gim vi mt t l

thp hn. Cc kt quc skhc bit ln trong thu nhp mi c phn EPS vi

cc kt qu ca cng knm ngoi. Cc kt quQu 1 nm 2001, cc kt qu

nn gim so vi cc kt qu ca cc nm trc do s gim xung ng k trong

doanh thu so vi cc nm trc. S gim xung ny sc tho lun thm

trong phn phn tch ca chng ti trong bi ny.

Hnh 1.2 EPS thu nhp mi cphn ca GM

T thng 12 nm 2000, doanh sbn l ti M gim trong 3 thng lin

tip. Khuynh hng ny tip tc trong thng 1 vi tn tht doanh thu so vi cc

kt qu ca qu 1 nm ngoi 4.1 %, thng 2 vi 8.1 v thng 3 vi-6.8

(figure1). Vic gim doanh sny so vi nm trc ng gp vo s st gim

ca ngnh.

C thc nhiu nguyn nhn l gii cho iu ny. Tuynhin, phm

vi nghin cu ca bi ny l nhy cm cnh tranh ca GM i vi ng Yn

Nht. Chng ta t ra cu hi l: Gi ng yn nht c xu hng gim lin tc

trong nhng nm tr li y lm tng li nhun ca cc cng ty xe hi Nht

Bn. iu ny liu c gy nh hng n li nhun cng nh th phn ca GM

hay khng ?


15/73



Hnh 1.3 Tgi JPY/USD giai on 1/198008/2001

NgunBank of JaPan (BOJ)

Phn sau y chng ti si xem xt s bchnh sch phng nga chnh

thc ca GM sau nh lng mc nhy cm ca GM vi ri ro ng

Yn. Cui cng chng ti s ngh mt chnh sch qun tr ri ro di hn kh

thi c thgip bo v GM khi nhy cm cnh tranh ng Yn ca n.


16/73



II. CHNH SCH PHNG NGA CHNH THC CA GM

1. Treasurers office

1.1. Trch nhim ca Treasurers office

Ti u ha cu trc vn ca GMm bo nhu cu ngn qu cho GMTrc tip qun l cc ri ro hot ngH trchin lc kinh doanh ca GM thng qua vic nm giv

bn i cc ti sn khng cn cn thit cho hot ng ca cng ty khi m

cng ty c pht sinh nhu cu kinh ph hot ng.

Cung cp ti chnh v chin lc h trcho cc hot ng khcca cng ty.

1.2. Hot ng ca Treasurers office

1.2.1. Cc hot ng chnh

Qun l khnng thanh ton danh mc u t ton cu.

Qun l ngn qu hot ng ton cu, bao gm c nhng miquan hngn hng v duy tr khnng thanh ton cho cng ty.

Xy dng chin lc kinh ph hiu qucho cc cng ty con caGM.

Qun l nhy cm ca hng ha v tgi hi oi thng mi.1.2.2. Chin lc

Mua li hay bn i cc ti sn t c mc tiu mong mun,chng hn nh to tnh thanh khon cao hn, v u t vo cc lin

doanh mi.

Qun l ti chnh cc nh cung cp khng thc hin cc ngha vti chnh ca mnh.

Lp k hoch cho khnng thanh ton trong di hn.Ti trchin lc cho mt trong nhng chng trnh qun l hu

bng t nhn ln nht th gii.


17/73


18/73



By size of sales Accounting

earnings

Cash flows Balance

sheet

accounts

Firm value

More than $ 6.5

billion

23 65 0 12

$6.5billion -$3.3

billion

37 58 0 5

$3.3 billion -$1.7

billion

50 38 0 12

$1.7billion -$0.7

billion

66 34 0 0

Less than $0.7

billion

38 43 5 14

Total 44 47 1 8

Source: Bodnar and Gebhardt, 1998

Qua bng trn ta ddng nhn thy rng chin lc phng nga ri ro

cacc cng ty thuc lnh vc phi ti chnh Mu li vic phng nga ri

ro chuyn i m dng nh tp trung rt ln cho phng nga ri ro trn cc

dng tin ca cng ty.

2.2. Cch Thc Phng Nga Ca Cng Ty

Tcc mc tiu phng nga ca cng ty m ban qun tr ca GM a

ra cch thc phng nga ph hp t c mc tiu . GM chphng nga

cho nhy cm giao dch v li nhy cm chuyn i c th hin qua

trng thi ca bng cn i kton. Cng ty theo ui mt chin lc phng

nga thng hn ch thi gian qun l s dng cho qun l FX, kt qu

ca nghin cu ni bxc nh l u t cc ngun lc cho qun l FX thit


19/73



thc khng dn n hiu qu ng k ca mc chun th ng. Chnh sch

phng nga ca cng ty cng i hi nhy cm c qun l theo c skhu

vc (khng phi ton th gii), v vy vic qun trti chnh phi ph hp vi

hot ng kinh doanh nn tng ca cng ty.

Chin lc phng nga th ng c GM p dng nhn chung phng

nga 50% ca cc ri ro TG ng k xut pht tcc dng tin kt hp vi

hot ng kinh ang ang din ra, nh cc khon phi thu v cc khon phi

tr. Cc nhy cm thng mi nh vy c dbo trn c skhu vc, v

cch thc c s dng xc nh khnng c thgy ra ri ro ca nhy

cm v ln phng nga trn c s tun hon 12 thng (on a rollingtwelve-month basis). Chnh sch phng nga cng xc nh cc cng c s

dng cho cc hot ng phng nga. Cc hp ng k hn c s dng

phng nga cc nhy cm pht sinh trong vng 6 thng, v cc quyn chn

c s dng phng nga cc nhy cm pht sinh trong vng 7 n 12

thng. Tt c s chch khi cc ng li cho ny phi c ph duyt bi

nhng nh qun l cp cao, v Feldstein xem xt k lng nhng ngh

nh vy mt cch cht ch.


20/73


21/73



ca cc nc bo vng tin ca nc . Nc Nht chng minh rng

vi iu kin lm pht khng l mi bn tm th mt quc gia c th can thip

lm gim gi trng tin ca nc m khng c bt c mt ro cn no.

Mt trong nhng bin php can thip ca Nht Bn l thay i lng d trngoi hi. D tr ca Nht tng gn 200 t $, t khong 250t$ ln n 450

t $, t gia thng 8 nm 1999 n thng 8 nm 2002. R rng khng ai c th

tin rng mt quc gia c ng tin mnh nh Nht Bn li cn d tr mt

lng ln nh vy. Chng hn nh d tr ca Mvo khong 50 t $. Trong

bt k trng hp no, Nht Bn khng c iu b mt no trong s can

thip ca h hay trong vic mong mun iu chnh gi trng Yn thp hn

ca h.

o co thu nhp ca Honda v Toyota nm 2001 cho thy rng li nhun

ca Toyota tng khong 20 tyn cho mi ng yn gim gi so vi la. i

vi Honda, hng m mc sn xut cao hn tng i so vi doanh sbn

hng ti M, sgia tng l khong 12 tyn. S dng b d liu di hn hn,

Morgan Stanley c lng rng s thay i trong li nhun l khong 125$

mi n v cho mi phn trm im thay i trong gi tr ca ng yn so vi

la. Nu nh chl li nhun c gia tng th cc nh sn xut t M st

quan tm hn. Nhng vi doanh sNht suy gim, cc cng ty t Nht Bn

tn dng s suy yu ca ng yn gia tng th phn M. Trong 2 nm

qua th phn ca thtrng t M thu ht nhp khu t Nht tng t ngt

khong 1.2%. nhin, ngi Nht cng ginh c th phn thng qua gia

tng sn lng a phng ci m cng c hng li t s yu hn ca ng

Yn. Morgan Stanley c lng c 0.75% mi tng quan gia th phn nhp

khu ca Nht v xu hng trong di hn ca ng yn so vi la

hiu r hn v nhng tc ng ca ng Yn vi GM trong giai on

ny ta c thxem xt TGH $/Y trong thi gian gn y. Exhibit 4 cho ta thy

rng TGH $/Y trong 2 thp k gn y c rt nhiu s bin ng v xu hng

r rt y l ng Yn c xu hng gim gi so vi nhng nm u thp k

80.


22/73



Tuy nhin, nu xt trong nhng nm gn y th cho n nm 2000 ng

Yn ang c stng gi nh t117 n 107 lm gim li nhun hot ng

ton cu gp ca cc hng xe Nht 4 t $.T con s thng k Feldstein

tnh ton c rng i vi s gim gi mi mt ng Yn i vi la, linhun hot ng chung ca cc i th cnh tranh l cc cng ty Nht stng

ln hn 400 triu $. Cc c lng phc tho tcc bo co nghin cu cho

thy rng cc cng ty Nht khng c li nhun khi ng Yn mnh hn 110

i vi la v c li nhun ti tgi $/Y l120 hay ln hn. n cnh , GM

khng ch chu s tc ng ca tgi $/Y trong lnh vc kinh doanh m cn

trong c lnh vc m cng ty ang u t. Exhibit 5 chnh l t lu t m

GM u t vo cc cng ty Nht.V vy nhng tc ng ca TGH y

cn nh hng ti cdng tin m cng ty thu vtrong tng lai t hot ng

u t nc ngoi. Nhng nhng tc ng ny khng chnh hng ti dng

tin vo ca cng ty m cn nh hng ti cdng tin ra, chnh l nhng

khon nc nh danh bng ng Yn. Nhng khon nny c GM huy

ng qua hot ng pht hnh tri phiu ph tri nh danh bng ng Yn. V

Feldstein cho rng cc nhy cm cnh tranh mi nh hng ng k n

dng tin ca cng ty. V Feldstein i tin hnh o lng cc nhy cm ny

v tm cc gii php c thngn nga nhng tc ng ca nhng ri ro ny

i vi cng ty.

2 nh lng nhy cm cnh tranh ca GM i vi ng Yn Nht

Do ccng ty thun ty ni a ln cc MNCs u chu tc ng ca

nhy cm cnh tranh i vi ri ro tgi, tc ng ny c thl thun li hoc

bt li, v vy trc ht cng ty cn nh gi mc tim n ca nhy cm

t xc nh liu c nn phng nga nhy cm ny khng.

2.1 Mt sginh

Thng s Gi trc th

Gi nh Ngun& cchtnh

Cc hng xe Nht c chi ph c ngun gct Nht n20% -40%

30%


23/73



Chi ph tit kim c chuyn n ngitiu dng

15% -45%

30%

ng Yn gim gi 20% 20% co gin ca cu theo gi 2 2

oanh s hng nm ca Nht ti th trngM (n v) 4,100,000 4,100,000

co gin cho i vi GM 33.33% 33.33%2000 Average Incentive per Unit in theUnited StatesGM

1969 1969

T l chit khu vnh vin 20% 20%Bng 1.2 Cc ginh

Cc ginh trn y c rt ra ttnh hung. y chng ti chtrnh

by cch tnh mt sthng schng ti gin tip rt ra tbi nghin cu:

- co gin ca cu theo gi : gi tng 5% c th k vng doanh s

gim khong 10%

- co gin cho i vi GM : Feldstein ginh rng bt k th phnno nh mt vo tay cc hng xe Nht sc chia scng bng trong svhon ton bi ba cng ty ln Detroit (General Motors,Ford, vChrysler).

E cho = 1/3 = 33.33%.

- 2000 Average Incentive per Unit in the United States GM : Hnh 6

trong bi tnh hung.

- ng Yn gim gi y chng ti gi nh l 20% khi o lng

nhy cm : khi ng Yn gim gi khong 20% st cn trn ca nhy

cm. Theo chng ti y l mt con sc th chp nhn v:

Nm JPY/USD

1980 209.79 4.40%

1981 219.02 10.72%

1982 242.49 -3.36%

1983 234.34 5.81%

1984 247.96 -18.23%

1985 202.75 -20.03%

1986 162.13 -20.90%

1987 128.25 -3.60%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Corporationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Corporationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Corporationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Companyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Companyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Companyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_LLChttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_LLChttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_LLChttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_LLChttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Companyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Corporation


24/73



1988 123.63 16.17%

1989 143.62 -6.89%

1990 133.72 -4.23%

1991 128.07 -3.19%

1992 123.98 -11.50%

1993 109.72 -8.70%

1994 100.17 1.69%

1995 101.86 11.66%

1996 113.74 13.87%

1997 129.52 -9.36%

1998 117.4 -12.60%

1999 102.61 9.36%

2000 112.21Bng 1.3 Dliu tgi JPY/USD

2.2 o lng nhy cm cnh tranh

C LNG NHY CM CNH TRANHCht Nht mi xe 30%ng JPY gim gi 20%Chi ph tit kim c chuyn nngi tiu dng 30%Gi xe hi gim 1.80%

Gi xe hi gim 1.80% co gin doanh s 2oanh s hng nm ca hng xe Nht ti th trng US (n v) 4,100,000Tng trong doanh s hng xe Nht ( n v) 147,600

Tng trong doanh s hng xe Nht ( n v) 147,600

co gin cho i vi GM 33.33%Tn tht vo doanh s ca GM (n v) 49,200

Tn tht vo doanh s ca GM (n v) 49,200Li nhun mi xe hi ($) $5,907Tn tht trc thu ca Gm ( triu $) $291

T l chit khu vnh vin 20%Hin gi ca tn tht ( triu $) $1,453.12


25/73



Nh vy, vi mt s ginh ca chng ti th nu ng Yn Nht gim

20% gi trth:

- Tn tht trc thu ca GM vo mi nm l 291 triu USD (khon

4.06% thu nhp trc thu ca GM nm 2000).

- Hin gi ca tn tht l 1,45 t la (chim khon 20.3% thu nhp

trc thu ca GM nm 2000).

2.3 Phn tch nhyHin gi ca tn tht

Bng 1.4 dliu cho phn tch nhy

Chi ph tit kim c chuyn nngi tiu dng 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%Cht Nht mi xe 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

o lng nhy ca GM i vi ng Yn khi 2 ginh chnh ca

chng ti thay i.

PHN TCH NHY - PV CA TN THT ( T $)$1.45

Chi ph tit kim c chuyn n ngi tiu dng15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

ChtNhtmixe 20% 0.48 0.65 0.81 0.97 1.13 1.29

25% 0.61 0.81 1.01 1.21 1.41 1.61

30% 0.73 0.97 1.21 1.45 1.70 1.94

35% 0.85 1.13 1.41 1.70 1.98 2.26

40% 0.97 1.29 1.61 1.94 2.26 2.58

Bng 1.5 Kt quphn tch nhy

Nh chng ta c th thy, nhn chung nhy ca chng ta chy tgi tr

nh nht l 0.48 t la n ln nht 2.58 t la. Nh vy c thni GM c

nhy cm cnh tranh kh ln i vi ng Yn. Tuy nhin, 2 nhn tc tc

ng n hin gi ca tn tht m chng ti phn tch nhy l 2 nhn t

khch quan. C th ni n ph thuc kh nhiu vo cc quyt nh kinh


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doanh ca cc i th cnh tranh Nht nn chng ta kh c th qun l c.

o vn tip theo chng ti mun tip cn l con s :

ng JPY gim gi

2

0%

Theo nh gi thuyt trong tnh hung a ra. Khi ng Yn gim gi 20%

so vi US th st c cn trn ca tgi. Con sny dy ln mt nim

bn khon cho nhm khi kt hp vi th v tgi nh trnh by :

Bn c th thy, by gi l thng 9/2001. C th tnm 1980 n nay

ng Yn c xu hng gim gi so vi ng la. Nhng cc bn c thnhn

trn th t cui nm 2000 n nay ng Yn Nht c xu hng tng gitr li. (C thc nhiu l do gii thch v cng dbo cho xu hng

ca tgi trong tng lai. Tuy nhin y chng ti khng tp trung su vo

vn ny). Vy nim tin v con sng Yn gim gi 20% c cn ng tin

chng ta phn tch hay khng ?

Cu tr li ca nhm l vn cn: bi v phn trn y l chng ta i o

lng nhy chcha c nh g l dbo hay phn tch xu hng tng

lai ca tgi xem tc ng xu nh thno n GM. Chng ta chxem xt


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gi tr ca hin gi ca tn tht (gi tr ca GM m c th b tc ng do

nhy cm cnh tranh ca GM i vi ng Yn khi ng Yn gim gi 20%)

t tnh ra nhy cm cnh trnh.1.

lp l hng ny cho phn tch tnh hung. Mc d bi khng yu

cu. Nhng chng ti vn quyt nh b sung phn sau y xem xt c vn

dbo % gim gi ng Yn ny, t chng ti xem xt biu phn

phi xc sut hin gi ca tn tht cho nm 2001. T xem th t nht l

trong thi gian ngn hn ti y, ng Yn bin ng lm cho phn phi ca

PV tn tht do nhy cm cnh tranh l l nh thno ?

2.4 M phng Monte Carlo

Sau khi phn tch o lng nhy cm cnh tranh ca GM i vi ng

Yn Nht chng ta c th thy hin gi ca tn tht

(i lng c trng cho mc nhy cm) chim mt phn kh ln trong thu

nhp ca GM. T nhn chung rt ra kt lun cn thit phi qun tr nhy

cm cnh tranh ny. Tuy nhin nh phn tch phn trn trc khi a ra mt

s khuyn nghchnh sch qun tr ri ro di hn kh thi c thgip bo vGM khi nhy cm cnh tranh ng Yn ca n. Chng ti si m phng

gi tr % gim gi ng Yn v tnh ton phn phi xc sut ca hin gi tn

tht.

Hn na vi phn tch nhy trn chng ta chc th thy c s

thay i trong gi tr ca hin gi ca tn tht ch khng cho chng ta thy

c xc sut i km vi cc gi trny. Phng php m phng sau y skhc phc c nhc im ny.

1y chng ti lu vi cc bn l chng ta ang i o lng nhy cm cnh tranh nn cch tnhca n phc tp hn nhiu so vi nhy cm giao dch hay chuyn i. Chng ta phi i tnh gi trhin gi ca gi trc th btc ng bi tnh cnh tranh ny do s gim gi ca ng Yn. Ch

khng c cc gi trc th btc ng r nh trong nhy cm giao dch hay chuyn i. Phn tnh nhy cm tng hp ca cc nhy ca GM vi ri ro ng Yn scho chng ta ci nhn r rnghn.


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Nhn vo th, vi ginh phn phi xc sut ca thay i trong tgi

ng Yn vi US. Chng ta c c gi tr tn tht phn phi xc sut a s

nm na ln hn gi tr 0 ( tn tht > 0) chim i a s.

Nh vy sau khi o lng nhy cm cnh tranh ca GM i vi ng

Yn v phn tch phn tch phn phi xc sut ca tn tht do nhy cm ny

to ra. Chai u ng hcho chng ta i n quyt nh:

Nn c chnh sch qun tr ri ro di hn khthi c thgip bo v GM

khi nhy cm cnh tranh ng Yn

2.5 nhy cm tng quan ng Yn ca GM

Loi nhy cm T $ nhy cm cnh tranh 1.45 nhy cm thng mi 0.90 nhy cm u t lin kt (0.82) nhy cm khon vay nh danh bng ngJPY

(0.50)

TNG NHY CM I VI JPY 1.04

Bng 1.6 nhy cm tng hp

Trong :

+ nhy cm do huy ng vn bng JPY: 500 triu USD.+ nhy cm thng mi (giao dch): 900 triu USD.+ nhy cm do u t vo cc cng ty con ti Nht.

Chi nhnh

nhy cmlin kt

Phngp vn

thucs huca GM

(t $)Long/(Short)(t $)

Fuji (1.50) 20% (0.30)

Isuzu (1.02) 49% (0.50)

Suzuki (0.09) 20% (0.02)

TNG NHY CM LIN KT (0.82)Bng 1.7 Tng nhy cm lin kt

3. Gii php cho vn qun tr nhy cm cnh tranh i vi ng Yn

ca GM


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bng ng yn v tr nbng la. Mt hp ng hon i cng tng tnh

mt khon vay gip lng nhng chkhc l khon vay ny skhng c phn

nh vo bng cn i kton ca cng ty.

Sdng quyn chn: s dng quyn chn l cch phng nga ph bin

cho nhy cm ca dng tin bng ngoi ttrong tng lai ca cng ty.

s dng cc quyn chn th trc ht cng ty phi xc nh c nhy cm

hot ng ca mnh. Nu trong trng hp ng la tng gi v s dn n

dng tin hot ng tnh theo ng la s gim. Khi cng ty nn mua mt

quyn chn bn Yn Nht. V ngc li trong trng hp ng yn tng gi th

dng tin hot ng tnh theo la M s tng, lc ny cng ty nn mua mtquyn chn mua ng Yn. Hp ng quyn chn cung cp cho cng ty mt

chnh sch bo him cho dng tin hot ng ca mnh trc s bin ng ca

ng tin ngoi t.

Chia s ri ro tin t: Mt phng php c gng trnh ri ro tin tl

cc bn giao dch chia s ri ro ln nhau. Bi v nhy cm giao dch trong

ngn hn l mt tr chi c tng bng khng, tn tht ca ngi ny chnh l

li ch ca ngi kia, do mt hp ng c vit theo cch m bt k s

thay i no trong tgi hi oi t t t l tha thun cho ngy giao dch s

c chia gia hai bn. V d, xt trng hp GM s phi tr mt khon

120000yn trong 6 thng ti da trn tha thun v tgi giao ngay trong vng

6 thng k tby gica $1 = 120 yn, do chi ph GM phi bra l $1000.

Do chia s ri ro, nu tgi trong 6 thng ti l $1 = 115 yn th GM thay v

phi tr 120000/115 = $1043.48 nu trong trng hp khng c s chia s riro th cng ty ch phi trcho i tc mt khon l $1021.74. i v mc d

nhy cm i vi tgi ca cng ty trong trng hp ny l $43.48 c

ng phn chia gia GM v i tc, v khon tin i tc ca GM chp nhn

nhn c l 1021.74*115 = 117500 yn. V tng t cho kch bn tgi theo

chiu hng ngc li. R rng phng thc phng nga ny khng hon ton

loi bc ri ro tgi m n chn gin l chia tch n. V phm vi p


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dng ca n cng chc s dng i vi cc i tc l nhng bn hng hay

nh cung cp lu nm ca cng ty.

3.2. S Dng Real Options Phng Nga Ri Ro Nhy Cm Cnh

Tranh

Trong khi s dng cc hp ng thng lm cho vic qun tr nhy

cm ri ro ca cng ty mt thun li ln th cng cn c nhiu cch khc

gii quyt vn ri ro m khng cn dng ti cc hp ng. Bi v, s dng

cc cng cti chnh khng th loi b ri ro nu slng ca dng tin bng

ngoi tcng khng r rng v khng c stng quan hon ho vi tgi hi

oi. nhy cm cnh tranh l nhy cm trong di hn v cch tt nht

phng nga nhy cm ny l s dng cc real option.

Hiu v real option: Quyn chn thc (real option) khng phi l quyn

chn i vi bt ng sn , v cng khng c ngha l c tn ti cc quyn

chn khc c phn no khng thc. Real option l cc quyn chn thng

c thy trong cc quyt nh u t ca cng ty, cc quyt nh ny thng

c gi l u t thc. cc quyn chn thc c nhiu c tnh ca quyn chnthng thng nhng chng cng c nhiu im khc bit. cc quyn chn thc

c cc c quyn c gi trr rng, nhng thng thng th ngy o hn v

gi thc hin ca chng l khng my r rng. Cc quyn chn thc thng

da trn cc ti sn c srt mp mv khng c giao dch trn thtrng

c tnh thanh khon hay thm ch khng th giao dch.

Sdng chin lc u t:Trong cc trng hp m ri ro ca cng tyc thc kim sot, cng ty c th to ra cc u t thc c th lm gim

bt mt tiu cc ca ui phn phi li nhun. Chng hn nh mua mt my

mc cht lng cao hn c th lm gim s tc ng ca s ngt qung sn

xut. Nm giu vo hay u ra ca kho hng c thgip phng nga cc ri

ro v cung ng. u t vo lnh vc R&D nhm tng tnh cnh tranh ca sn

phm cng ty v kiu dng, cht lng v c bit l nhng sn phm tit kim

nhin liu hn, mt c im m cc nh sn xut Nht ang chim u th.


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Cng ty cng c thu t vo cc real option v gicc real option c gi tr

m hc thkhai thc. Cc real option pht sinh bt ckhi no cng ty c kh

nng tr hon vic a ra quyt nh cho n khi n c c hi thu thp nhiu

thng tin hn na. Mt cng ty ang trong mt v th tr hon u t mkhng lm mt i li th cnh tranh ca n, t b dn m n trnn khng

c li nhun, iu chnh chin lc hot ng ti mc chi ph thp, th u c

thn trnh c cc ri ro v khai thc c cc c hi li nhun. Cc quyn

chn tr hon su t, cng c thc xem nh l cc quyn chn cho s

tng trng trong tng lai, thng l c th c thc hin trong mt s

trng hp.

n cnh , GM c th xem xt vic gia tng u t vo cc cng ty

Fuji, Isuzu v Suzuki Nht. Trong trng hp ny, nu ng Yn tng gi s

lm cho hot ng u t ca cng ty t ra hiu quhn v cng ty s nhn v

nhiu la hn v ngc li.

Cng ging nh cc quyn chn bn trong thtrng cc quyn chn ti

chnh, cc quyn chn ny cho php mt cng ty gii hn thit hi bng cch

cung cp mt quyn chn thot khi nhng ri ro hin ti.

Sdng chin lc marketing:Cng ty c th phn ng vi sthay i

ca TGH thc s hay on trc bng cch ngh ra cc chin lc hot ng

bao gm cc sng kin marketing khc nhau ( nh vic la chn thtrng hay

chin lc nh gi) .i vi trng hp ca GM, cng ty c thxem xt vic

gim gi bn thtrng ni a. Vi co gin ca cu theo gi ca cng ty

bng 2, c ngha rng mt s gim gi 1% s dn n doanh s ca cng ty s

gia tng 2%. o , GM c th chng li c s st gim trong th phn ni

a.

Sdng cc chin lc linh hot ngun lc sn xut: Cc real option

khc pht sinh trong cng ty nh l mt kt qu ca s linh hot a dng theo

qui m, bao gm qui trnh linh hot, s t chc linh hot, v sn lng linh

hot. S linh hot hot ng ca cc MNC c thc quan nim nh l mt


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danh mc ca cc quyn chn thc v quyn chn ti chnh thu c trong qu

trnh a dng ha quc t( Kogut and Kulatilaka, 1995). Trong khi cc cng ty

ni a thun ty ch da vo cc cng cti chnh phng nga ri roTGH

ca h, th cc MNC c thm mt cng cphng nga: l mc linh hothot ng c cung cp bng h thng nc ngoi ca h. nhy cm

hot ng a n kt qul tcc thay i khng k vng trong TGH ln

chi ph u vo ca cng ty ( nh chi ph nguyn liu, chi ph nhn cng..) v

gi cu ra ( nh gi sn phm). Bi v stng quan ca gi c vi TGH

l xc nh bi mc phn khc thtrng ca mnh., nhy cm hot ng

da vo chi ph u vo v gi cu ra c xc nh ti a phng hay ton

cu. Cc cng ty thuc lnh vc t nh GM vic quyt nh t nh my sn

xut u nn xem xt v linh hot di chuyn sn xut qua bin gii

li dng s bin ng ca tgi hi oi ( Williamson (2001)). Cho nn GM

c ththay i ngun lc bng cch mua mt snh my Nht. o , nh

hng ca nhng thay i khng mong i trong TGH ln gi tr ca doanh

thu ng tin ca nc c cng ty mng sc b p bng mt s thay

i tng t trong gi tr chi ph sn xut a phng. Cc cng ty MNC

thng qun l nhy cm hot ng ca h bng vic a dng ha hot

ng ca h qua nhiu quc gia ( khu vc tin t). a dng ha ton cu cng

l mt cch phng nga nhy cm kinh doanh, bao gm vic mrng th

trng v n v sn xut ca cng ty ra ton th gii. Nu TGH thc gim

mt nc no , cng ty c thtng sn xut a im v y mnh xut

khu ti nhng nc c TGH tng hay khng i. Khi TGH trn khp th

gii thay i, vic kinh doanh nm v th phi theo ui thtrng v cc chi sn xut khi chng xut hin. Trong tnh hung ca chng ta, khi ng yn

gim gi nhanh vt qua t l lm pht ca Nht so vi Mth GM nn gim

sn xut Mv tng cng sn xut Nht. V nhng sn phm tha Nht

s c xut khu bn ti M. Vi chin lc nh vy, GM s tit kim

c chi ph sn xut v gia tng doanh thu khi tnh theo ng la. ng

nhin. Cc phng nga l tn chi ph xy dng, thi gian thc hin di, v

do khng ddng t b. utler (1997) chi ph ca phng nga thng qua


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hot ng l t nng nhn cho cng ty a quc gia ln vi vic a dng ha

hn mt cng ty nh vi mc a dng ha v mt a l t hn. Cc cng ty

a dng ha ln i mt vi chi ph chm thp hn khi thay i sn lng hoc

doanh s gia cc nc bi v hthch thit lp hot ng nhng nc nyhn. Ng rng cc MNC vi h thng a dng ha rng ln nh GM s

thnh cng hn trong vic qun l nhy cm ri ro hiu qu.

V vy vic la chn cng cphng nga ph hp cho cng ty cn phi

c xem xt v p dng ph hp chon tng hon cnh v giai on c th

cng nh ty vo thi gian m ri ro pht sinh c k hach phng nga

hp l.


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CHNG 2

NHY CM KINH DOANH CA TOYOTA TI CHU U


37/73



I. Gii thiu v Toyota

Toyota motor corporation (TMC) l mt tp on a quc gia c tr s ti thnh

ph Toyota ca Nht. Nm 2010, TMC c s lng lao ng l 317, 734 lao ng v l

nh sn xut xe t ln nht th gii.

ng Sakichi Toyoda l mt nh u t vo chng trnh sn xut khung dt t ng

v l ngi sng lp ra Toyota Group. Tp on Toyota c thnh lp bi Kiichiro

Toyodacon trai ng Sakichi Toyoda - vo nm 1937 t mt cng ty con tch ra t cng

ty m ca cha ng y sn xut t.

Sakichi Toyoda


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Kiichiro Toyoda

y l cng ty c phn hot ng trong lnh vc t, Ro-bt, Dch v ti chnh v

Cng ngh sinh hc. Cng ty c rt nhiu tr s:

-Tr s chnh: 1 Toyota-Cho, Toyota, Nht Bn.


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Toyota City Head Office

Toyota Head Office

-Tr sti Tokyo: 1-4-18 Koraku, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Nht Bn-Tr sti Nagoya: 4-7-1 Meieki, Nakamura-ku, Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, Nht

Bn

Tnh ti 31/03/2010, TMC c s vn iu ll 397,05 tYen, v tng snhn vin

lm vic: 320.579 ngi.


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Group Units %Share

Toyota 8,557,351 11.0

GM 8,476,192 10.9

Volkswagen 7,341,065 9.4

Bng 2.1 ba nh sn ut t hng u th gii nm 2010

Cho n nm 2010 , Toyota l nh sn xut t ln nht th gii v doanh thu cng

nh th phn:

Hnh 2.1 Bng p hng ton cu ca cc nh sn ut t c thng k mi nm i T

Chc Cc Nh Sn ut T Quc T OIC.

Trong nm 2010, TMC ng u bng xp hng vi 8,6 triu sn phm trn toncu (ton b sn phm trn th trng ton cu nm 2010 l 77,743,862 theo thng k ca

OICA)

Vo gia nm 2011, TMC ri xung v tr th 3, v tr ng u thuc v GM v

th 2 l Volkswagen. Tuy nhin, bng xp hng hng nm ca OICA c cng b hng


41/73


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Chu u l khu vc u t chim t trng rt ln ca Toyota trn th trng th

gii, vi doanh s ng th 3 (ch sau Nht v c M).

TME l trung tm sn xut ca tp on Toyota ti chu u. TME chnh thc i vo

hot ng bn xe t ti chu u vo nm 1963. TME m nhim vai tr bn s v tip

th sn phm ca Toyota v dng Lexus , b phn v linh kin, v cng vic sn xut ca

Toyota chu u v quy trnh vn hnh k thut. Toyota trc tip v gin tip

thu khong 80,000 lao ng ti chu u v u t khong 7 t Euro t nm 1990. Hthng ca Toyota chu u c 1 h thng th trng 31 quc gia v cng ty con 56

nc, tng cng 3000 ca hng bn l, v 9 nh my sn xut.

Trung tm u no ca TME c t russels, , v l trung tm ch huy hot

ng ca Toyota v Lexus ti chu u. N c vai tr quan trng nh l ty sng ca hot

ng sn xut ca Toyota chu u bao gm l khu vc i u trong lnh vc sn xut

v nghin cu, tip th v bn hng.

II. Phn tch c bn

1. Tnh hnh th trng chung chu u v ng Euro:

T 01/01/1999, t gi hi oi gia ng Euro v cc n v tin t chnh thc c

quy nh khng th thay i. n ngy 01/01/2002, ng Euro i vo hot ng chnh


43/73



thc c 7 nm (ng tin chung chu u c i tn thnh Euro t ngy 16/12/1995).

Trong thi gian , ng Euro c lu thng song hnh cng cc ng tin bn t

ca cc quc gia khc, v c mt v th ng nht nh ti th trng chu u khi .

in hnh l vic cc s ti khon v s tit kim c ghi chp ng thi bng ngEuro v ng tin c. Ngoi ra, c phiu v cc chng ch ti th trng chu u ch

c php mua bn bng Euro. V vic pht hnh ng Euro n tay ngi tiu dng bt

u chnh thc vo ngy 01/01/2002.

Khi a ng Euro vo lu hnh, thng mi v cng tc kinh t gia cc thnh

vin trong vng Euro s vng mnh thm v cc ri ro v tgi hi oi v km theo

l vic bo h tin t ca cc doanh nghip chu u skhng cn tn ti na. vic ny s

mang li li thcho ngi dn trong vng Euro v trong qu khthng mi l mt trong

nhng ngun chnh ca tng trng kinh t. Thm vo ngi ta cng tin rng gi c

ca sn phm v dch v skhng cn chnh lch nhau nhiu na. iu ny dn n

cnh tranh mnh hn gia cc doanh nghip v v th slm gim lm phtv tng sc

mua ca ngi tiu th..

Tuy nhin, mt snh kinh t hc by t lo ngi v nhng nguy him ca mt ng

tin t chung cho mt vng kinh tkhng ng nht v rng ln nh vng Euro. c bitl khi cc nn kinh tpht trin khng ng b s to kh khn cho mtchnh sch tin

tthch ng. V mt chnh tr vn cn cu hi l liuNgn hng Trung ng chu uv

y ban chu uc khnng kim chcc nc thnh vin gi k lut trong ngn sch

quc gia hay khng. Trn thc t, thi gian va qua dng nh xc thc ni lo ngi

ny, v d nh trng hp ca ncc: Tkhi a ng Euro vo lu hnh nc c

cha c nm no t c iu kin vthm ht ngn sch quc gia (khng c vt

qu 3%tng sn phm quc ni). Cho ti nay, cc bin php trng pht tht ra l c

quy nh trc trong Hip c n nh v Tng trng khng c Hi ng cc b

trng BTi chnh chu u p dng.

Theo mt bn nghin cu ca Ngn hng Trung ng chu u t l ca ng Euro

trong d tr ngoi ttrn ton cu tng t13% trong nm2001 ln 16,4% trong nm
http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_m%E1%BA%A1ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_m%E1%BA%A1ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%E1%BA%A1m_ph%C3%A1thttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%E1%BA%A1m_ph%C3%A1thttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%E1%BA%A1m_ph%C3%A1thttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ng%C3%A2n_h%C3%A0ng_Trung_%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ng%C3%A2n_h%C3%A0ng_Trung_%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ng%C3%A2n_h%C3%A0ng_Trung_%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E1%BB%A6y_ban_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E1%BB%A6y_ban_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%A9chttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%A9chttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%A9chttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hi%E1%BB%87p_%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bc_%E1%BB%94n_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh_v%C3%A0_T%C4%83ng_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hi%E1%BB%87p_%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bc_%E1%BB%94n_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh_v%C3%A0_T%C4%83ng_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hi%E1%BB%87p_%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bc_%E1%BB%94n_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh_v%C3%A0_T%C4%83ng_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hi%E1%BB%87p_%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bc_%E1%BB%94n_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh_v%C3%A0_T%C4%83ng_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hi%E1%BB%87p_%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bc_%E1%BB%94n_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh_v%C3%A0_T%C4%83ng_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%E1%BB%B1_tr%E1%BB%AF_ngo%E1%BA%A1i_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hi%E1%BB%87p_%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bc_%E1%BB%94n_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh_v%C3%A0_T%C4%83ng_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_qu%E1%BB%91c_n%E1%BB%99ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%A9chttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E1%BB%A6y_ban_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ng%C3%A2n_h%C3%A0ng_Trung_%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_ch%C3%A2u_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%ADnh_s%C3%A1ch_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%E1%BA%A1m_ph%C3%A1thttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_m%E1%BA%A1i


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2. Tnh hnh kinh doanh ca Toyota ti chu u:

Toyota Motor Euro

Toyota bt u kinh doanh ti th trng chu u vo nm 1960. n nm 1973,

sn phm Toyota u tin c sn xut ti o Nha mt cch chnh thc. Nm 1992,

Toyota chnh thc sn xut cc loi xe t hon chnh ti nc Anh. V n nm 2001,

mt nh my sn xut ca Toyota ti Php bt u sn xut mu xe Yaris.

Ngoi ra, Toyota cn nhn thc c rng ngi dn chu u mun c c snphm tha mn nhu cu ca h, do trong nm 2000, Toyota thnh lp trung tm

nghin cu v pht trin ca h ti chu u.

Tnh hnh kinh doanhv th phn qua cc nm ti chu u


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Nm Tnh hnh kinh

doanh

Th phn

1997 471,000 n v 2.8%

1998 541,000 n v 3.1%

1999 592,000 n v 3.2%

2000 634,000 n v 3.59%

2001 666,000 n v 3.62%

Bng 2.3 tnh hnh kinh doanh v thphn qua cc nm ti chu u

Hnh 2.2 Tnh hnh kinh doanh ca Toyota qua cc nm.


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Hnh 2.3 Thphn kinh doanh ca Toyota qua cc nm.

C th thy tnh hnh kinh doanh ca Toyota ti chu u ngy cng pht trin,

doanh s cng ngy cng tng vi tc kh n nh, th phn ca Toyota ti chu u

ngy cng c m rng.


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Hnh 2.5Quy trnh kinh doanh ca tp on Toyota nm 2001

C th thy c rng Toyota m rng mng li kinh doanh ca mnh ra th

trng ton cu vi mng li sn xut v phn phi khp ni trn th trng th gii.

Th trng chu u l th trng ngoi a ln th 2 ca Toyota ch sau th trng c

M. Nhng chng ta c th thy rng vi th trng rng ln nh vy nhng Toyota chc mt nh my sn xut ti nc Anh, cn li ti th trng chu u ch c cc cng ty

sn xut v lp rp linh kin, iu cho thy rng kh nng sn xut ca Toyota ti chu

u khng th bt kp vi nhu cu ca ngi dn y, do vi quy m khng tng

xng nh vy s buc Toyota nhp sn phm sn xut t cc nh my sn xut khc vo

li th trng chu u, v do buc Toyota chu u i mt vi mt ri ro rt cao xut

pht t nhy cm giao dch v nhy cm kinh doanh.


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Hnh 2.6Slng e t c sn xut Chu u

III. MINH CH HOT NG KINH DOANH CA TOYOTA TI TH

TRNG CHU U.

Vo thng 1 nm 2002, nh sn xut m t ti chu u ca Toyota (TMEM) gp

phi rc ri. c bit hn, ng Toyoda Shuhei, ch tch mi ca TMEM, cng gp phi

rc ri. ng ang trn ng ti vn phng bn ngoi Tokyo ca cng ty t Toyota(TMC) gii thch s suy gim lin tc trong sn xut v doanh s ti Chu u. CEO

ca TMC, ng Hiroshi Okuda, ang trng i mt xut tng Shuhei hn chv

tin ti loi b nhng thit hi . Tnh cnh cng thng ny a n vic TMEM l chi

nhnh duy nht ca cng ty Toyota b l hot ng.

1.Toyota v ngnh cng nghip sn xut xe hi

TMC l nh sn xut xe hi hng u Nht Bn, nh sn xut ln th 3 th v

doanh s (5,5 triu chic hay mt chic trong mi 6 giy), nhng li ng thtm ti lc

a Chu u. Ngnh cng nghip sn xut t ton cu, ging nh nhiu ngnh cng

nghip khc c s st gim doanh ston cu v tip tc tri qua nhiu s hp nht trong

nhng nm gn y trong hon cnh li nhun bin b thu hp, quy m v phm vi nn

kinh t cng bin chuyn theo chiu hng xu, th phn ton cu b st gim.


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Toyota cng vy, tip tc hp l ha sn xut cng vi Region lines v gia tng sn

lng ni a ha Bc M. Nm 2001, hn 60% doanh s ca Toyota Bc Ml c

sn xut ti khu vc ny.Nhng sn lng ca Toyota Chu u th khng c nh vy.

Hu ht xe hi v xe ti cho thtrng Chu u u c sn xut Nht Bn. Nm2001, ch 24% s lng xe c bn ra ti Chu u l c sn xut ti chu u (bao

gm cVng quc Anh), phn cn li c xut khu t Nht Bn (xem hnh 2.5).

Hnh 2.7: Cu trc th phn ca cng ty Toyota ti chu u

TME bn 634000 xe t trong nm 2000. Chu u l thtrng nc ngoi ln

th 2 ca Toyota, ch sau bc M. TMEM mong i stng trng ng k trong doanh

sChu u v c k hoch mrng sn xut cng doanh sln 800000 n vvo

nm 2005. Nhng nm ti chnh 2001, n vbo co thua l 9,879 Tyn(tng ng

82,5 triu la vi mc tgi 1US=120 Yn). TMEM c ba nh my lp rp t ti


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Euro, chi ph tng mnh khi c tnh ton bng ng Euro .Nu Toyota mun gi cho

mc gi ca mnh m bo kh nng cnh tranh trong th trng chu u, n phi nng

theo ton b cc thay i ca t gi, chp nhn gim thiu hoc l chp nhn li nhun

bin m i vi c mt hng xe hi hon chnh v mt hng b phn lp rp ca xe vnchuyn ti trung tm sn xut ca Toyota chu u, quyt nh sn xut mt hng Yaris

ti Nht n ch cng trm trng ha vn .

3.Cch thc qun l ph hp ng ph tnh hnh

an qun l ca Toyota khng khoanh tay ng nhn tnh hnh din ra nh vy.

Trong nm 2001, h tin hnh cc hot ng lp rp vn hnh ti Valenciennes, Php.

Mc d Valenciennes vn ch chim mt t trng th phn nh trn ton b th trng

chu u, k t thng 01/2002, Toyota d nh s pht trin v m rng cng sut v tim

nng ca n n nm 2004, n c th chim 25% t trng ca th trng ti chu u.

y chuyn lp rp ca Yaris c d nh di di sang Valenciennes trong nm 2002.

Vn tip theo l n vn ch l mt cng c lp rp, ngha l rt nhiu b phn quan

trng cu thnh nn mt chic xe vn phi nhp t Nht n hoc M .

ng Shuhei, vi s ph duyt ca ng Okuda, xut mt chng trnh tm

kim v mua bn ngun nguyn liu ti ch cho th trng sn xut ti Anh. TMEM cmc ch gim thiu s lng cc b phn hp thnh ca xe hi nhp t cng ty Toyota

ti Nht n lm gim thiu s tc ng ca s bin ng tin t ca n v ti Anh.

Nhng 1 ln na, vn st gim gi tr ca ng Euro i vi ng ng Anh, c

trnh by trong hnh 3, lm suy yu i tc ng ca gii php ny.


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Hnh 2. t gi giao dch hng ngy ca Bng nh so vi Euro

IV. XUT HNG GII QUYT

1.i ng Ta hn l ng ng n hng ha h h

h ng h i h

Cng ty Toyota bt u thm nhp th trng chu u vo nm 1960, n nm

2002, th trng chu u tr thnh mt th trng quan trng ca Toyota, chim th

phn ln v l th trng ln th hai ca Toyota trong cc th trng nc ngoi.

Nhng bt chp tnh hnh l th trng chu u ngy cng pht trin, cho n nm

2002, Toyota cng mi ch c mt nh my sn xut hng ha xut khu cho th trng

chu u t tr s ti Anh Quc, v mt vi nh my sn xut v lp rp ph kin t ti

mt s nc nh o Nha v Th Nh K v mt s nc khc. Tng sn lng ca

cc nh my ny ch cung cp c 26% tng doanh thu cho Toyota ti th trng chuu, v ch 24% s lng xe hi bn ti th trng chu u l c sn xut trc tip ti

chu u, phn cn li vn phi nhp khu trc tip t Nht n.


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Vic khng c mt trung tm sn xut hng ha trc tip ti chu u, khin cho

vic p ng nhu cu ca th trng phi c thc hin bng cch nhp khu sn phm

trc tip t cc nc khc khin cho Toyota phi i din vi ri ro rt ln v t gi.

Vic hn 70% sn phm giao dch ti th trng chu u phi nhp khu t th

trng bn ngoi cho thy Toyota chu u c mt nhy cm giao dch rt ln, c th

l nhy cm giao dch gn lin vi gi tr ng Euro so vi ng Yen.

Toyota trnh lng mt mu xe mi- ti thtrng Chu u, chic Yaris, c

xem l rt thnh cng. Yaris, mt siu xe nh vi mt ng c 1.000 cc, bn c hn

180.000 n v vo nm 2000. Mc d Yaris c thit k c bit cho th trng chu

u, nhng t u li c quyt nh l sn xut ti Nht n.

Ngoi ra, vic cc sn phm t cn li cung cp cho th trng chu u c sn

xut ti vng quc Anh cng gp phn lm trm trng thm vn nhy cm giao

dch ca Toyota ti chu u, v vng quc Anh khng s dng ng tin chung Euro

m s dng ng GP.

n cnh , vic s dng nhiu ng tin trong giao dch mua bn thnh phm xe

hi v ph kin cho qu trnh sn xut ti th trng chu u s c tc ng rt ln nc doanh thu v chi ph ca Toyota ti chu u khi m t gi gia cc ng tin s dng

trong giao dch c nhng bin ng khng lng trc c, lm nh hng n dng

tin trong tng lai ca Toyota ti chu u. iu ny th hin rng qu trnh kinh doanh

ca Toyota ti chu u c vi mt nhy cm kinh doanh rt ln.

Nhng vn trn c th c khc phc bng cch chuyn i xy dng mt trung

tm sn xut hng ha cho Toyota ti chu u, khc phc nhng ri ro do t gi thay i,

qua lm gim thiu vn nhy cm giao dch v nhy cm t gi ca qu trnh

kinh doanh ca Toyota ti chu u.

o , chng ta c th thy c rng vic xy dng mt trung tm sn xut hng

ha ca Toyota ti chu u l mt vic lm cp thit, cn thit xc tin, th nhng tri


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2. Liu vn c c gii quyt khi nc Anh gia nhp th trng tin t chung

chu u.

H thng tin t chu u c thnh lp vo nm 1979, v cng ngy cng pht

trin cho n hin nay (2002), nhng nc Anh vn ng ngoi khu vc tin t chungchu u v vn s dng ng GP ca mnh trong mi giao dch.

Nhng cuc tho lun nng bng v ti Anh Quc s tham gia vo th trng

tin t chu u vn cn ang tip din, nhng c mt thc t hin gi l vn cha c mt

k hoch rnh mch c th no thc hin vic .

ng nhiu cch, Vng Quc Anh tin rng da vo thc lc ca chnh mnh s c

th thu c nhng li ch to ln ca mt cng quc chu u ch khng ph thuc vo

ng Euro.

o tnh cht lch s ca ng ng Anh, nc Anh mun xem ng ng Anh l

mt biu tng cho s hng mnh ca y nc ca h, v nhng l do kinh t chin lc

khc nn nc Anh vn duy tr vic s dng ng ng Anh ch khng thay th bng

ng Euro.

Nu Vng Quc Anh tham gia vo Lin Minh Th Trng Tin T Chu u s

trit tiu ri ro tin t gia Vng Quc Anh v chu u, nhng khng phi l gia chu

u v Nht n. Nu Vng Quc Anh tham gia vo Lin Minh Th Trng tin T

Chu u s lm mt i s chnh lch trong gi tr tin t gia ng ng Anh v ng

Euro. Vi 24% doanh thu ca Toyota ti chu u c sn xut ti Anh vi chi ph c

tnh trc tip bng ng Anh, vic nc Anh chuyn i sang s dng ng Euro s lm

gim ng k nhy cm giao dch v nhy cm kinh doanh ca Toyota ti chu u

(24%).

Ngoi ra, trong di hn, vic Anh gia nhp Lin Minh Th Trng Tin T Chu u

s lm cho chi ph sn xut trong di hn khng cn chu tc ng xu bi s thay i t

gi hi oi na, khi qu trnh chuyn giao sn xut t cc vng ngoi a chuyn sang

sn xut trong th trng chu u din ra, t trng doanh thu ca xe Toyota c sn


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xut trc tip ti chu u s tng ln, nhy cm giao dch ca Toyota ti th trng

chu u s c ct gim ng k. Ngoi ra, vic ny cn nh hng n dng tin trong

tng lai ca Toyota chu u, khi m doanh thu v chi ph khng cn chu nh hng

ln t s bin ng t gi, s to ra mt k vng chc chn hn v li nhun cho Toyotati chu u, gim thiu cc chi ph qun tr ri ro v gia tng li nhun.

Theo quan st biu t gi giao dch hng ngy ca ng Anh so vi Euro, c th

thy c rng ng euro ngy cng mt gi tr so vi ng ng Anh, do vic sn

xut ti Anh v tiu th ti th trng chung chu u s khin cho Toyota phi gnh chu

mt ri ro t gi rt ln, c th l vic chi ph sn xut s tng cao i km vi s gia tng

gi tr ca ng ng Anh so vi Euro, s nh hng rt ln n li nhun trong di hn

ca Toyota ti chu u.

Nu Anh gia nhp vo th trng tin t chung chu u, s khin nc Anh phi s

dng ng tin chung Euro v mt i v th c tn ca ng ng Anh, vn l mt ng

tin c gi tr cao v c th c lu hnh rng ri trn ton th gii vi gi tr chuyn

i cao. Ngoi ra nu gia nhp th trng chung chu u s lm cho nc Anh t nhiu

mt i s c lp v cng c tin t ca mnh, nh hng n qu trnh iu hnh chnh

sch tin t ca chnh ph. V nhng l do nn trong thi gian sp ti, nc Anh vn skhng gia nhp th trng tin t chung chu u v gi v th ca ng ng Anh.

3. Phn loi cc vn trong ngn hn v di hn ca Toyota ti chu u

Vn y, theo nh cc d liu c bn c trnh by, chnh l vn t gi

nh hng n gi c . Ta c th nhn thy trong thi gian gn y, Toyota ti chu u

gp vn do gi tr ca ng Euro st gim so vi gi tr ca ng Yen v ng ng

Anh. Vn ny c th c gii quyt bng cch tng gi bn trong mt chng mc

nht nh, nhng khng th gii quyt ton vn vn , v nu tng gi bn s lm gim

kh nng cnh tranh ca Toyota ti th trng chu u. o , Toyota ti chu u phi

gnh chu nhng thit hi em n bi ri ro t gi bin i. Trong nm ti chnh 2001,

Toyota chu u bo co thua l 9,879 Tyn(tng ng 82,5 triu la vi mc t

gi 1US=120 Yn).


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C th thy c cc nh hoch nh chin lc ca Toyota thy c vn

ny v xc tin nhng bin php ci thin tnh hnh, vic cho ra i cc dng xe

dnh ring cho th trng chu u - trc l dng xe Prius nm 1997, sau l dng xe

Yaris- c th xem nh l nhng ng thi ch cht ca Toyota ti chu u tng bcginh li th phn v ci thin tnh hnh kinh doanh thua l ti chu u. Nhng h vn

phi tm ra gii php cho tnh hung xe Yaris c tiu th ti chu u nhng li c

sn xut ti Nht n, vic ny s lm cho Toyota ti chu u gnh chu nhng ri ro v

chi ph do s bin i ca t gi EUR/JPY.

V mt vi l do khng cng b, hu ht cc quy trnh sn xut ca cng ty Toyota

ti c M dch chuyn qu trnh sn xut ca mnh vo ng ti khu vc c M,

trong khi tp on Toyota vn tip tc duy tr v cung cp cho th trng ti chu u

bng cc mt hng sn xut t th trng Nht n. nh hin ti cho vic sn xut mt

mt hng sn phm mi nhm vo th trng chu u l xe t Yaris, vn c tip tc

sn xut ti th trng Nht n l mt minh chng v mt bc tip theo ca chin lc

. khng hn l mt chin lt ng n v l mt tc ng a n s bin chuyn

hin ti ca t gi trao i.

C th phn loi vn ca Toyota ti chu u trong thi gian ny nh sau:

o Trong ngn hn: Vn thua l do t gi thay i, chi ph tng cao.o Trong di hn: Li nhun kinh doanh lu di ca Toyota ti th trng chu u.


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Vi nhng bin php phng nga ri ro nh trn, trong ngn hn c th gp phn

hn ch thua l trong hot ng kinh doanh ca Toyota ti th trng chu u. Trong

trung v di hn, Toyota s phi thc hin mt hnh ng khng th trnh c na, l

s di chuyn cng ngy cng nhiu cng ngh sn xut t vo qu trnh sn xut ti thtrng chu u tng t nh th trng c M c th loi b hon ton ri ro v t

gi giao dch.

Cc c s sn xut ca Toyota ti chu u hin nay

4. Gii php hp l gip Toyota ti chu u gii quyt vn tr tr trong vicvn hnh sn xut chu u.

Nu Toyota sn sng tip tc chp nhn l hot ng ti th trng chu u, v t

mc tiu chim lnh th trng cao hn mc tiu li nhun, h s tip tc duy tr chin

lc vn hnh sn xut v gi c hin nay v chnh sch gi c phi i theo mt k hoch


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c th. ng Euro c du hiu khi phc so vi ng Yn trong nm nay. Ngoi ra h

c th p dng ci bin php phng nga ri ro t gi bng cc cng c phi sinh nh hp

ng k hn, hp ng giao sau, quyn chn, nghip v swap

Toyota ti chu u cng c ch trng tm kim v mua bn ngun nguyn liu

ti ch cho th trng sn xut ti Anh vi mc ch gim thiu s lng cc b phn hp

thnh ca xe hi nhp t cng ty Toyota ti Nht n lm gim thiu s tc ng ca

s bin ng tin t ca n v ti Anh. Nhng vic st gim gi tr ca ng Euro so vi

ng ng Anh mt ln na lm cho k hoch ny lm vo tnh trng tr tr.

Sc mnh ca ng ng Anh so vi ng Euro, v s n nh mi c thit lp

trong t gi gia 2 ng tin trong nm 2000 v 2001, khng phi l im bo tt p choqu trnh sn xut Anh cung cp cho th trng chu u. o ci thin qu trnh

kinh doanh trc mt, cn phi hn ch nhng ri ro t gi do chnh lch t gi trong cp

tin GP/EUR em li, c th c th bng nhng bin php sau:

Hp ng k hn: vi tnh hnh tng gi hin nay ca ng ng Anh so vi ng

Euro, Toyota ti chu u c th thc hin nghip v mua k hn ng ng Anh v bn

k hn ng Euro hn ch s tn tht do bin ng gi c ca ng Yen Nht v ng

euro trong tng lai. Vic tin hnh phng nga bng hp ng k hn nh vy c th

gim thiu ri ro kit qu ti chnh cho Toyota chu u do lm gim thiu nhng ri

ro v t gi.

Hp ng giao sau: cng s dng vi cp t gi GP/EUR, Toyota ti chu u c

th thc hin nghip v mua giao sau ng ng v bn giao sau ng Euro. Vic cc

khon thanh ton ca hp ng giao sau c thc hin iu chnh theo th trng hng

ngy s lm gim thiu tc ng bt li ca t gi, lm gim nguy c cng ty b lm votnh trng kit qu ti chnh.

Hp ng quyn chn: ta c th mua cc hp ng quyn chn mua ng Anh v

mua cc hp ng quyn chn bn Euro hn ch ri ro t gi thay i trong tng lai,


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dng bin php ny Toyota chu u s phi gnh chu mt khon ph quyn chn nhng

i li h c th ch ng hn trong vic thch nghi vi s thay i ca t gi hi oi.

Trong di hn, tp on Toyota, cng nh cc tp on a quc gia khc, cn phi

xem xt vic di chuyn nhiu hn qu trnh sn xut v chi ph sn xut vo th trng

chu u, khng phi trong nc Nht v khng phi trong nc Anh.


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cc t sti chnh ca cng ty. Mt cng ty vi ch s sc khe ti chnh khng

tt, thng xuyn c nhng khon l ln skhng phi l iu thun li cho

cng ty trong qu trnh huy ng vn. Chi ph s dng vn ca cng ty s gia

tng cng vi mc ri ro cao m n phi gnh chu. n cnh , vi cc cng v nh u t, tnh hnh khng tt ca cng ty slm cho nh u t, c

ng c ci nhn khng tt v c phiu ca cng ty, cng nh thn trng hn

trong qu trnh u t. T lm gim khnng huy ng vn ca cng ty v

s st gim gi trcng ty.

Th ba, s mt mt c hi u t. Lajolla c thc nhng c hi u t

tt, tuy nhin cng ty skhng tin thc hin cc c hi . V s b qua

cc c hi u t tt l mt s tn tht ln i vi cng ty. Nu kim sot c

cc khon l do chuyn i, dng tin khng b st gim, cng ty c thu t

vo cc c hi tt v nng cao t sut sinh li ca cng ty,lm gia tng gi

tr ca cng ty.

V cui cng, vi Meaghan, l mt gim c ti chnh mi c b

nhim, c khng thl l i vi cc khon tn tht ln nh vy. Kt qucng

vic ca c phi nh, nh gi qua kt qu kinh doanh ca Lajolla. Cho

nn. b phi iu tra tnh hnh nhiu hn na, v nh gi c cc mc tn

tht cng nh cc la chn c th khc phc: bo him ri ro bng cn i

kton, di chuyn cc cng ty con nc ngoi, hoc thay i ng tin lm

chc nng ng tin trao i a phng. ng cch gii quyt cc vn

nh vy v c gng qun l cc tn tht , O'Connor quan tm hn n

nhy cm, v ri ro ca vic gia tng nhy cm chuyn i. V ng thi,

O'Connor nn tip tc iu tra tnh hnh v cn nhc gia li ch thu c t

vic gim tn tht v chi ph cho vic iu tra.

III.Vn gp phi tng quc gia:

Trc tnh hnh chung ca cng ty nh vy, Lm thno c th kim

sot c cc tn tht trn? gii quyt c vn trn, chng ti tin hnh

phn tch cc vn v iu kin c th mi quc gia c tha ra li

khuyn ph hp nht cho tng quc gia.


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Hnh3.3: Tgi nh qun hng thng ng Bolivar/ ng USD.

IV. Mt s gii php xut cho Meaghan:

1.Gii php chung cho cng ty

T vic phn tch cc vn ca cng ty, chng ti a ra mi s gii

php c thgp phn qun l v hn chc nhng tn tht do chuyn i.

Trc ht l nhng bin php chung c th s dng cho ton cng ty, c

mt sng nht trong qun l.

Cng ty c th s dng cc cng cphi sinh: hp ng k hn, giao sau,

hon i phng nga nhng tn tht t s chuyn i. V d: khi nhn c

doanh thu bng ng tin a phng ca cng ty con, Lajolla c th mua mt

hp ng k hn vi khon tin . Nh vy, khi chuyn tin vnc, cng ty

sc mt khon tin b p cho nhng khon lcho cng ty. ( Hoc ngc

li), t cc ri ro chuyn i skhng nh hng n kt qubo co ti

chnh hp nht ca cng ty.

Hu ht cc cng ty M latinh ca Lajolla u tn nhiu chi ph s

hu v vn hnh cc thit bchi ph cao v thit b nng chuyn dng, v cc

ti sn ny thng c khu hao trong thi gian di, sc th chu nhiu nh

hng ca ri ro tgi. Nh vy trong ngn hn, cng ty c thy nhanh mc

khu hao, gip bo v ti sn ca cng ty, hn ch gp phi nhng bin ng

ca ri ro tgi. Trong di hn, cng ty c th thay i t tv u n ccnh my cnh v thit b, ti sn di hn ca cng ty, s dng cc thit bt


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tn chi ph cng nh c cc bin php bo b thit b, ti sn tt hn, nng cao

thi gian s dng ca ti sn, gim tn tht trong tng lai.

2.Gii php cho mi quc gia c th

n cnh vic s dng cc bin php phng nga chung, vi mi trng

hp ca tng quc gia, chng ti a ra mt s gii php m Meaghan

O'Connor c th s dng gii quyt vn .

2.1.Jamaica

Qua phn tch trn, chng ti thy rng nhng tn tht ca cc cng ty

cong Meaghan khng phi do hot ng v qu trnh qun l. Cc khon tn

tht u trn ssch kton v bo co ti chnh chkhng phi t thu nhp

thc t. V hn na, nhng tn tht ca cng ty cng cha nghim trng v

cng ty t c cc thon thun chia s ri ro do tgi hi oi ca cc i

tc. Meaghan nn chp nhn tnh hnh hin nay. Tuy nhin, m bo khng

lm cho cc khon tn tht gia tng hn na, Meaghan cn c nhng hnh

ng thn trng hn trong hot ng ca cng ty. Vi tha thun chia s ri ro

vi cc i tc kinh doanh, Lajolla cn phi thn trng hn, xem xt khn vi tc ca mnh trc khi bt u hp tc.

2.2.Mexico

Vi tnh trng Mexico, y n gin khng phi do nguyn nhn khch

quan ca tgi hi oi m xut pht t hot ng ca ca cng ty con v cc

chun mc k ton m cc cng ty con ny p dng. o i hi Meaghan

phi tm hiu mt cch nhanh chng gii quyt cc vn v cc sai lm.

Meaghan c th s dng t vn kton, kim ton vin c lp, h tr

xem xt cc hot ng Mexico. Mt bo co ti chnh c vit qu ln

(Writing up) khng cn m bo tnh trung thc ca n. o , Meaghan

cn phi kim tra li tnh hnh thc t ca cng ty, v c thi chiu vi bo

co ti chnh c thpht hin v lm r nhng khon sai lch. Vic kim tra

tnh hnh thc t ca cng ty cng c tha ra nh gi chnh xc cho vic s


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dng cc phng php kton nh hin ti c ph hp khng. V t c th

a ra la chn cho phng php kton ph hp hn.

o co ti chnh khng trung thc v Meaghan nhn thy cc nhn

vin a phng vit qu ln cc khon l. V khi b cp vn ny qua

in thoi th kim sot vin a phng tr li n gin l khng hiu cu hi

ca b. Nh vy d sao i na, Meaghan cn phi kim tra li vn nhn s

ca cng ty. Cn c mt h thng kim sot ni b kcng hn, kp thi pht

hin v ngn chn cc sai phm, gian ln trong cng ty, hn chcc khon

ltrn ssch. V bn cnh , Meaghan khng nn b qua vic tm hiu thc

tnhn vin, v s bt hp tc trong cng vic. Tm hiu cc nguyn nhn gy

ra nhng s vic v khc phc chng, l cho nhn vin hp tc hn vi b.

Cui cng, vi vn vcc quy nh ca chnh phi vi cc khon

mc tin t - y c v l mt vn kh gii quyt. Lajolla ang hot ng

kinh doanh trn quc gia Mexico, v ng nhin, cng ty phi tun th tt c

cc quy nh, lut php ca quc gia. Nhng hn ch phn no nhng tn

tht, cng ty c thxem xt, thu cc cng ty t vn a phng, h am hiu

lut php v c tha ra nhng li khuyn c thtrnh cc khon tn tht

trn.

2.3.Venezuela

i vi vic chm trthanh ton ca cc c quan chnh ph, s la chn

thc s ca Meaghan chn gin l tip tc thc y cc i tc t nht l tr

tin ng hn,. Nh vy, t c mc ch ny, cng ty cn c mt s thay

i trong giao dich. Trc khi giao dch, cng ty cn phi tm hiu k vtnh

hnh ca i tc, vcc qu trnh kinh doanh v s chi tr ca i tc trong qu

kh. V hp ng giao dch khi k kt cn phi c cn trng hn, quy nh

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