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University of WaterlooDepartment of Economics
Economics 603 Theory and Application of Economic Forecasting
Dr. J.A. Brox Fall 2007Hagey Hall Rm 221
Purpose of the Course:Topics covered include a critical of
current forecasting models and issues in forecast evaluation.
Theemphasis is on the practical skills, both applied and
theoretical, which the economist requires in theindustrial,
financial, and/or governmental environment. While most examples
will be drawn frommacroeconomics, some individual or firm-level
examples will be discussed, including methods usedin the
forecasting of the demand for new products or financial
instruments.
Required Textbooks:
Spyros Makridkis, Steven Wheelwright, and Rob Hyndman
Forecasting: Methods and Applications,Third edition, Wiley,
1998.
Shazam User's Reference Manual, version 9.0, 2001.
Grading Scheme:The final grade in the course will be assigned on
the basis of:
1) terms tests held on Oct. 17 and November 26 40%2) short
practical assignments 20%3) a "major" project or term paper due on
December 21 40%
There will be no formal final examination.
Course Outline:
I IntroductionII Classical Time-Series MethodsIII Box-Jenkins
MethodsIV Econometric ForecastingV Comparing the Forecasting
MethodsVI Subjective Information and Judgmental AdjustmentsVII
Indicators of Economic ActivityVIII Special Topics and
Applications
Additional Readings may be assigned on the assignment sheets
Office Hours: 10:30-1:30 Monday, Tuesday and
Wednesday(tentative)
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I. Introduction
Required Readings:Makridakis, Wheelwright and Hyndman,
Forecasting: Methods and Applications, chapters 1-2.
1. Purpose and Objectives of Economic Forecasts
a) What is Forecasting?
b) Why Forecast?
c) Types of Forecasts
d) Macroeconomic Forecasts
e) Choosing a Forecast Method
f) Managing the Forecast Process-
g) Review of Basic Statistical Conceptsi Descriptive
statisticsii Probability distributionsiii Sampling distributionsiv
Statistical estimationv Hypothesis testingvi Basic correlation and
regression analysis
h) Data Sources
i) Data Patterns
2. Overview of Forecasting Methodsa) Subjective
b) Statistical
c) Behavioral
d) Summary of methods to consider
3. Methods of Forecast Evaluation
Key then is a cost-benefit analysis of the forecast method.Areas
of cost:
1. developmental 2. maintenance 3. operational
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4. Measuring Forecast Benefits (Accuracy)
a) Mean Error
b) Mean Absolute Error (Deviation)
c) Root Mean Square Error
d) Absolute Mean Percentage Error or Root Mean Square Percentage
Error
e) Theil's U Inequality
f) Turning Point Tests
5. How do we construct these measures?
a) In sample performance evaluation
b) ex post forecast evaluation
c) backcasting
d) ex ante forecast evaluate
5. Graphic Analysis of Errors
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II Classical Time Series Methods
Required Readings:Makridakis et al., chapters, 3-4.
1. Classical Time Series Models
a) multiplicative modelsb) additive models
2. Simple Averaging
a) naive modelsb) meansc) moving averagesd) exponential
smoothing
i) simple and double smoothingii) Holt's methodiii) Winter's
method
3. Trend Extrapolationa) regression against timei) white
noiseii) a random walkiii) an autoregressive trendiv) a linear
trendv) a quadratic trendvi) an nth order polynomialvii)
semi-logarithmicviii) modified exponentialix) Gompertzx)
logistic
b) simple curve fitting
4. Seasonal Adjustmenta) dummies in regressionb) moving average
methods
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III Box-Jenkins Methods
Required Readings:Makrikadis et al., chapters 7 and 8.
Fullerton, T.M. and A.C. Nava “Short-Term Water Dynamics in
Chihuahua City, Mexico”WaterResources Research, 2004.
M.D. Geurts and I.B. Ibrahim, "Comparing the Box-Jenkins
Approach with the ExponentiallySmoothed Forecasting Model", Journal
of Marketing Research, 1975.
I.B. Ibrahim and T. Otsuki, "Forecasting GNP Components Using
the Method of Box and Jenkins",Southern Journal of Economics,
1976.
1. Pros and Cons of ARIMA Forecasting
2. Types of Time Series Processesa) random walkb) white noisec)
stationaryd) moving averagee) autoregressivef) mixed ARIMA
3. Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Functions
4. Four Key Steps in Forecasting Using the B-J Methoda)
identificationb) estimationc) diagnostic checkingd) forecasting
5. Examples of the Full Process
6. Advanced Topics in Time Series Analysisa) Seasonal ARIMA
Modelsb) Invertibility and Stationarityc) ARIMA Process for Sum of
Series d) Transfer Functionse) Vector Autocorrelations (VAR) and
Vector ARIMA Models
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IV Econometric Methods and Models
Required Readings:Makridakis et al., chapters 5, 6, 8.
F.T. Denton, "Data Mining as an Industry", The Review of
Economics and Statistics, 1985.
R.M. Young, " Forecasting with an Econometric Model: The Issue
of Judgemental Adjustment",Journal of Forecasting, April, 1982.
1. Introductiona) hypothesis testingb) policy analysisc)
forecastingd) sources of forecast error
2. Unconditional Forecastinga) point forecastingb) interval
forecasting
3. Conditional Forecasting (single equation)a) point forecastsb)
interval forecastsc) sensitivity analysis
4. Validation, Evaluation and Common Problems in Econometric
Forecasting Models
a) a) evaluation statisticsb) theoretical validationc)
statistical validationd) Multicollinearitye) Heteroscedasticityf)
Autocorrelationg) co-integration and stationarity
5. Introduction to Simulation Modelsa) evaluating simulation
modelsb) model estimationc) model behaviourd) tuning and adjusting
simulation modelse) stochastic simulation
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V Comparing the Forecasting Methods
Required Readings:Makrikadis et al., chapter 11.R.T. Clemen,
"Linear Constraints and the Efficiency of Combined Forecasts",
Journal of Forecasting,Vol. 5, 1986K. Holden and D.A. Peel, "An
Empirical Investigation of Combinations of Economic
Forecasts,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, 1986.J.A. Longbottom
& S. Holly, "The Role of Time Series Analysis in the Evaluation
of EconometricModels", Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, 1985
1. Introduction2. Uses of Different Methods3. Costs of Different
Methods4. Combined Forecasts5. Evaluation by Other Methods
VI Subjective Information and Subjective Adjustments & VII
Indicators of Economic Activity
Required Readings:Makridakis et al, chapters 9 and 10A.
Auerbach, "The Index of Leading Indicators: Measurement Without
Theory Thirty-Five YearsLater", Review of Economics and Statistics,
1983.M. Godet, "From Forecasting to La Prospective: A New Way of
Looking at Futures", Journal ofForecasting, 1982.S. Figlewski,
"Optimal Price Forecasting Using Survey Data", Review of Economics
and Statistics,1982.P. Klein and G. Moore, "The Leading Indicator
Approach to Economic Forecasting -- Retrospect andProspect",
Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, 1983.D. Rhoades, "Statistics
Canada's Leading Indicator System", Current Economic Analysis,
1982.
1. Multiple Scenarios2. Use of Survey Data and Methods in
Forecasting3. Judgmental Forecast Methods4. Use of Judgmental
Adjustment with Other Methods5. Indicators of Economic Activity
a) Indicators and Diffusion Indicesb) Filtering the Seriesc)
Timing and Stability Issuesd) Sectoral Analysis
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VIII Special Topics and Applications
1. Consumer and Producer Cost Systems2. Finanical Applications3.
Technological Forecasting4. Forecasting New Product Demand
Suggestions for the Final Project
The suggestions contained in this outline are meant to be a
rough guide and in no way shouldbe interpreted as the only possible
approach to the only available topics. I strongly urge all
studentsto discuss their own project with me as soon as a
preliminary outline has been developed.
The purpose of this exercise is to allow you to illustrate your
ability to apply some of thetechniques covered in the course to a
specific problem. Thus, you must outline the question that youwill
attempt to answer, the techniques that you are using, the problems
that you have encountered,and how you have attempted to solve them.
The required length of the paper is an issue that I alwaystry to
avoid specifying, as it will depend upon the nature of your topic
and how you approach it. Thekey is that your topic must be worth
doing and you must have done it. However, as a rough guide,papers
generally wind up in the eight to ten typed page range.
Appropriate topics include:
1. An in-depth application of one of the techniques (simple time
series, econometric, ARIMA) toproduce a forecast of an economic
time series.2. A comparison of two or more forecasting methods
applied to a specific economic time series.3. The construction of a
small econometric model for the purpose of forecasting some aspect
ofeconomic activity.4. A review of the assignments prepared for the
course, with the purpose of improving the individualefforts and
illustrating the comparative advantages of each method applied to
your sector of theeconomy.
Again let me stress that this list is not meant to be
comprehensive, but merely a guide for you to useto set up your own
topic. Further guidance may be obtained by review some of the
readings indicatedon the topic outlines. Also, unlike the term
assignments, the final project must be an individualeffort. Feel
free to seek advice at any time.
Recent Forecasting Project Titles“A Forecast of Merchandise
Imports from Mexico using ARIMA Models”“The Crime Rate in
Ontario”“Forecasting the Demand for Money in Canada: Econometric
and ARIMA Methodologies”“Money Demand in Germany: 1984 Q1 - 1993
Q4"“An Econometric Model of Investment in Germany”“Forecasting
Teledensity”“Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling of SIMWARE Stock
Price”
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“Forecasting the Dow Jones Industrial Average Using a Random
Walk Model”“A Study on Interprovincial Migration: An Analysis of
the Migration from Prince Edward Island toOntario”“Forecasting the
Canadian Inflation Rate Using an Expected Inflation Series
Constructed by a SimpleTime-Series”“Forecasting the Bank Rate: A
Comparison of Methodologies”“Forecasting Canadian Export Growth
Using Rybczynski’s Theorem”“Forecasting the Expected Rate of Return
of IBM’s Shares”“A Comparative Study of the Forecasting Ability of
Company Management and Security Analysts”“Gasoline Prices: A
Forecast for the Summer”“The Danger of Using Subjective Forecasts
at the Government Level”Box-Jenkins ARIMA Methodology and the
Canadian/US Currency Exchange Rate”“ARIMA Model for an Internet
Index”“Forecasting Canadian Exports with Simple Combining
Techniques”“A Forecast of Lobster Landings”“Comparing Box-Jenkins
with Exponential Smoothing in the Prediction of the Canadian
QuarterlyUnemployment Rate”“The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology and
the Biotechnology Sector”“Forecasting Income as a Function of
Physical Attractiveness”“Using Simple Time Series Models to Predict
a Stanley Cup Winner”“Forecasting Ontario University Tuition
Fees”“Predicting Average Gasoline Prices for the Summer of 2002"“An
Evaluation of the Performance on Time-Series Forecast of Quarterly
Earning per Share:Evidences From Air Transportation
Industry”“Short-term Forecast of the Number of International
Tourists Entering or Returning to Canada”“Forecasting Interest
Rates in Egypt: Comparison of an Econometric Model and
Box-JenkinsTechnique”“Average Weekly Earning of Child Daycare
Hourly Employees in Ontario”“Forecasting the GDP Growth Rate in
Pakistan Using an Econometric Model”“Comparing the Box-Jenkins
Approcah with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting
Model:Application to the Dow-Jones Industrial Average”
Project Suggestions Reading List
Adams, F. Gerard and Michael K. Evans. "Econometric Forecasting
With The Wharton Model,"Business Economics, 1968, v3(2), 52-55.
Albrecht, William Steve, Orace Johnson, Larry L. Lookabill and
David J. H. Watson. "AComparison Of The Accuracy Of Corporate And
Security Analysts' Forecasts Of Earnings:A Comment," The Accounting
Review, 1977, v52(3),736-740.
Al-Osh, Mohamed. "Birth Forecasting Based On Birth Order
Probabilities, With Applications ToU.S. Data," Journal of the
American Statistical Association, 1986, v81(395), 645-656.
Andersen, Leonall C. "The St. Louis Econometric Forecasting
Model," Business Economics, 1971,v6(4), 29-32.
Anderson, Robert J., Jr. "A Note On Economic Base Studies And
Regional Econometric Forecasting
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Models," Journal of Regional Science, 1970, v10(3),
325-334.Andrikipoulos, A. A., J. A. Brox and T. Gamaletsos.
"Forecasting Canadian Consumption Using The
Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (DGLES)," Applied
Economics, 1984,v16(6), 839-854.
Andrikopoulos, A. A., J. A. Brox and C. C. Paraskevopoulos.
"Interfuel And Interfactor SubstitutionIn Ontario Manufacturing,
1962-82," Applied Economics, 1989, v21(12), 1667-1682.
Andrikopoulos, A., J. Brox and E. Carvalho. "Shift-Share
Analysis And The Potential For PredictingRegional Growth Patterns:
Some Evidence For The Region Of Quebec, Canada," Growth andChange,
1990, v21(1), 1-10.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox. "Demand Systems For
Energy Consumption By TheManufacturing Sector," Journal of
Economics and Business, 1986, v38(2), 141-154.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox. "The Urban Housing
Market: A New Approach ForEstimating Demand For Housing By Dwelling
Type," Journal of Urban Economics, 1984,v15(2), 230-243.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and David E. Matthews.
"Interest Rate Elasticities AndCanadian Household Portfolio
Allocation," Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,1992,
v32(1), 103-116.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and Theodore A.
Georgakopoulos. "A Short-RunAssessment Of The Effects Of VAT On
Consumption Patterns: The Greek Experience,"Applied Economics,
1993, v25(5), 617-626.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Cost Structure,
Inter-factor Substitution andComplementarity, and Efficiency in the
Canadian Agricultural Sector", Canadian Journal ofAgricultural
Economics, Vol. 40, 1992, 253-269.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Measuring the
Impact of Research and Develop-ment on Technological Change: An
Application of Basmann-Hayes-Slottje's Approach",Economics Letters.
Vol. 36, No. 1, May 1991, 81-85.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Portfolio
Allocation by Greek Banks", Spoudai,Quarterly Economic Studies.
Vol. 41, No. 4, 1991, 375-389.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Canadian
Inter-City Passenger Transportation: ASimultaneous Equation
Approach", International Journal of Transportation
Economics,October 1990.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and Emanuel Carvalho,
"A Further Test of theCompetitive Effect in Shift-Share Analysis",
The Review of Regional Studies, Vol. 17, No.3, summer 1987.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and Emanuel Carvalho,
"Substitution in the Demand forProtein Commodities", Canadian
Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 32, No. 1, March1984,
141-150.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "The Demand for
Deposits and Risk Sensitivity:The Case for Greece, 1955-1980",
Empirical Economics, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1986.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Short-Run
Forecasts of Consumer ExpendituresBased on the Linear Expenditure
Systems", Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. XI, No. 4,December 1983,
20-33.
Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "A Further
Investigation of Linear ExpenditureSystems with Zero, First and
Second Degree Autocorrelation Structures", The GreekEconomic
Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, August 1982, 207-221.
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Ang, James S., Jess H. Chua and Ali M. Fatemi. "A Comparison Of
Econometric, Time Series, AndComposite Forecasting Methods In
Predicting Accounting Variables," Journal of Economicsand Business,
1983, v35(3/4), 301-312.
Ang, James A. and Jess H. Chua. "An Application Of A
Multiple-Time-Series ForecastingTechnique In Finance: The Case Of
Stock Prices," Advances in Quantitative Analysis ofFinance and
Accounting, 1991, Part A, v1(1), 197-224.
Angus-Leppan, Pam and Vic Fatseas. "The Forecasting Accuracy Of
Trainee Accountants UsingJudgemental And Statistical Techniques,"
Accounting and Business Research, 1986, v16(63),179-188.
Armstrong, J. Scott. "Econometric Forecasting And The Science
Court," Journal of Business, 1978,v51(4), 595-600.
Armstrong, J. Scott. "Forecasting With Econometric Methods:
Folklore Versus Fact," Journal ofBusiness, 1978, v51(4),
549-564.
Armstrong, J. Scott. "Relative Accuracy Of Judgmental And
Extrapolative Methods In ForecastingAnnual Earnings," Journal of
Forecasting, 1983, v2(4), 437-448.
Asebrook, Richard J. and D. R. Carmichael. "Reporting On
Forecasts: A Survey Of Attitudes,"Journal of Accountancy, 1973,
v136(2), 38-48.
Baghestani, Hamid. "Survey Evidence On The Muthina Rationality
Of The Inflation Forecasts OfUS Consumers," Oxford Bulletin of
Economics and Statistics, 1992, v54(2), 173-186.
Baker, Al, Kathryn E. Williams and Paul Sheldon Foote.
"Financial Forecasting At AtlanticRichfield Company," Journal of
Business Forecasting Methods and Systems, 1992, v11(3),9-11.
Ballard, Kenneth and Norman J. Glickman. "A Multiregional
Econometric Forecasting System: AModel For The Delaware Valley,"
Journal of Regional Science, 1977, v17(2), 161-178.
Barker, T. "Forecasting The Economic Recession In The U.K.
1979-1982: A Comparison OfModel-Based Ex Ante Forecasts," Journal
of Forecasting, 1985, v4(2), 133-152.
Bartolomei, Sonia M. and Arnold L. Sweet. "A Note On A
Comparison Of Exponential SmoothingMethods For Forecasting Seasonal
Series," International Journal of Forecasting, 1989,
v5(1),111-116.
Basi, Bart A., Kenneth J. Carey and Richard D. Twark. "A
Comparison Of The Accuracy OfCorporate And Security Analysts'
Forecasts Of Earnings," The Accounting Review, 1976,v51(2),
244-254.
Basi, Bart A., Kenneth J. Carey and Richard D. Twark. "A
Comparison Of The Accuracy OfCorporate And Security Analysts'
Forecasts Of Earnings: A Reply," The Accounting Review,1977,
v52(3), 741-745.
Bedingfield, James P. and Myron S. Lubell. "Extension Of The
Attest Function To PublishedForecasts - An Opinion Survey," CPA
Journal, 1974, v44(1), 40-45.
Bell, Frederick W. "An Econometric Forecasting Model For A
Region," Journal of Regional Science,1967, v7(2), 109-128.
Belongia, Michael T. "Predicting Interest Rates: A Comparison Of
Professional And Market-BasedForecasts," FRB St. Louis - Review,
1987, v69(3), 9-15.
Berger, Allen N. and Spencer D. Krane. "The Information
Efficiency Of Econometric ModelForecasts," Review of Economics and
Statistics, 1985, v67(1), 128-134.
Bianchi, Carlo and Giorgio Calzolari. "The One-Period Forecast
Errors In Nonlinear EconometricModels," International Economic
Review, 1980, v21(1), 201-208.
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Blair, Andrew R., Robert Nachtmann, Josephine E. Olson and
Thomas L. Saaty. "ForecastingForeign Exchange Rates: An Expert
Judgment Approach," Socio-Economic PlanningSciences, 1987, v21(6),
363-369.
Bodkin, Ronald G., Victoria Cano-Lamy, Edward Chow, Jean Fortin,
Leslie Gunaratne, John Kuiperand Christine Serrurier. "Ex Ante
Forecasting With Several Econometric Models Of TheCanadian
Economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1979, v1(3),
16-40.
Boero, G. "Comparing Ex-Ante Forecasts From A SEM And VAR Model:
An Application To TheItalian Economy," Journal of Forecasting,
1990, v9(1), 13-24.
Boothe, Paul and Debra Glassman. "Comparing Exchange Rate
Forecasting Models: AccuracyVersus Profitability," International
Journal of Forecasting, 1987, v3(1), 65-80.
Bopp, Anthony E. and John A. Neri. "The Price Of Gasoline:
Forecasting Comparisons," QuarterlyReview of Economics and
Business, 1978, v18(4), 23-34.
Brandon, C., R. Fritz and J. Xander. "Econometric Forecasts:
Evaluation And Revision," AppliedEconomics, 1983, v15(2),
187-202.
Brandt, J. A. and D. A. Bessler. "Price Forecasting And
Evaluation: An Application In Agriculture,"Journal of Forecasting,
1983, v2(3), 237-248.
Brodie, Roderick J. and Cornelis A. De Kluyver. "A Comparison Of
The Short Term ForecastingAccuracy Of Econometric And Naive
Extrapolation Models Of Market Share," InternationalJournal of
Forecasting, 1987, v3(3/4), 423-438.
Brodie, Roderick J. and Cornelis A. De Kluyver. "A Comparison Of
The Short Term ForecastingAccuracy Of Econometric And Naive
Extrapolation Models Of Market Share: Reply To TheCommentary,"
International Journal of Forecasting, 1987, v3(3/4), 461-462.
Brox, James A. "Money And Money Substitutes: A Comment," Journal
of Money, Credit andBanking, 1978, v10(1), 112-114.
Brox, James A. "The Yield-Liquidity Trade-Off In Canadian
Portfolios," Quarterly Review ofEconomics and Business, 1983,
v23(3), 70-80.
Brox, James A. and Wendy A. MacLean. "The Financial Behaviour Of
Canadian PrivateCorporations And Government Enterprise: A Flow Of
Funds," Bulletin of EconomicResearch, 1986, v38(1), 49-66.
Brox, James, Emanuel Carvalho and Dino Lusetti. "Input
Substitution In Canadian Manufacturing:An Application Of The CES
Translog Production Function," Atlantic Economic Journal,1988,
v16(2), 22-46.
Brox, James A. and Wendy A. Cornwall, A Model of the Canadian
Financial Flow Matrix, (withW.A. Cornwall) Statistics Canada,
Ottawa, 1989, 200 pages.
Brox, James A., "Financial Capital and Productivity in
Residential Construction", Journal ofHousing Economics, Vol. 3, No.
3, September 1993, 1-15.
Brox, James A., "Capital Utilization and Productivity in Canada
: A Provincial Analysis", TheCanadian Journal of Regional Science,
Vol. 9, No. 2, 1986.
Brox, James A. “Academic Research and Productivity in Canadian
Manufacturing since theFormation of NAFTA”, Industry and Higher
Education, April 2007.
Brox, James A. and Emanuel Carvalho, “A Demographically
Augmented Shift-Share EmploymentAnalysis”, The Journal of Regional
Analysis and Policy”, Vol. 37 (1), (2007)
Brox, James A., R. Kumar and K. Stollery, “Estimating
Willingness to Pay for Improved WaterQuality in the Presence of
Item Non-Response Bias”, (with), American Journal ofAgricultural
Economics, 85(2), May 2003, 415-429.
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Brox, James A. “The Impact of Free Trade with the United States
on the Pattern of CanadianConsumer Spending and Savings”, North
American Journal of Economics and Finance, vol14 (1), 2003, 69 -
87
Brox, James A. and Christina Fader,“The set of just-in-time
management strategies: an assessmentof their impact on plant-level
productivity and input-factor substitutability using variable
costfunction estimates”, International Journal of Production
Research, vol.40,no.12, 2002, 2705-2720.
Brox, James A., “Changing Patterns of Regional and International
Trade: The Case of Canada underNAFTA”, International Trade Journal,
vol. XV no. 4, 2001, 383-407.
Brox, James A. and Emanuel Carvalho, “An Application of the
Regression Analogue of theDemographically Enhanced Shift-Share
Model.” The Review of Regional Studies. Vol. 36(2)(Fall 2006).
Brox, James A. “NAFTA, Infrastructure and the Canadian
Automotive Sector”, The Journal ofEconomic Asymmetries, Vol. 3 (2),
December, 2006.
Brox, James A.“The Impact of Public Services on the Pattern of
Private Spending in AtlanticCanada”, Canadian Journal of Regional
Science, XXVIII: 3 (Autumn, 2005), 439-460.
Brox, James A.“The Impact of Public Services on the Pattern of
Private Spending in AtlanticCanada”, Canadian Journal of Regional
Science, XXVIII (Autumn, 2005).
Brox James A. and Christina Fader, “An Assessment of the Impact
of Public Infrastructure onCanadian Manufacturing Productivity and
Factor Substitutability”, Applied Economics, Vol.37, (2005),
1247-1256.
Brox, James A., "A Note on Capacity Utilization, Productivity,
and the Canadian Output Gap",Empirical Economics, Vol. 9, No. 3,
1984, 131-138.
Brox, James A., "The Yield-Liquidity Trade-Off in Canadian
Portfolios", The Quarterly Review ofBusiness and Economics, Vol.
23, No. 3, autumn 1983, 70-80.
Brox, James A. "Migration Between the United States and Canada :
A Study in Labour MarketAdjustment", International Migration, Vol.
XXI, No. 1, 1983, 5-14.
Brox, James A. and Merritt Cluff, "Potential and the Real Output
Gap", The Canadian StatisticalReview, January 1979, 7 pages.
Bryan, Michael F. and William T. Gavin. "Models Of Inflation
Expectations Formation: AComparison Of Household And Economist
Forecasts: A Comment," Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, 1986,
v18(4), 539-544.
Burns, Malcolm R. and David J. Faurot. "An Econometric
Forecasting Model Of Revenues FromUrban Parking Facilities,"
Journal of Economics and Business, 1992, v44(2), 143-150.
Calzolari, Giorgio. "A Note On The Variance Of Ex-Post Forecasts
In Econometric Models,"Econometrica, 1981, v49(6), 1593-1596.
Calzolari, Giorgio. "Forecast Variance In Dynamic Simulation Of
Simultaneous Equation Models,"Econometrica, 1987, v55(6),
1473-1476.
Campos, Julia. "Confidence Intervals For Linear Combinations Of
Forecasts From DynamicEconometric Models," Journal of Policy
Modeling, 1992, v14(4), 535-560.
Carbone, R. and J. S. Armstrong. "Evaluation Of Extrapolative
Forecasting Methods: Results Of ASurvey Of Academicans And
Practitioners," Journal of Forecasting, 1982, v1(2), 215-218.
Caselles-Moncho, Antonio. "An Empirical Comparison Of
Cross-Impact Models For ForecastingSales," International Journal of
Forecasting, 1986, v2(3), 295-304.
Chambers, Marcus J. "Forecasting With Demand Systems: A
Comparative Study," Journal of
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Econometrics, 1990, v44(2), 363-376.Chang, Semoon. "An
Econometric Forecasting Model Based On Regional Economic
Information
System Data: The Case Of Mobile Alabama," Journal of Regional
Science, 1979, v19(4),437-448.
Chase, Charles W., Jr. "Business Forecasting: A Process Not An
Application," Journal of BusinessForecasting Methods and Systems,
1992, v11(3), 12-13.
Cheung, Joseph K., Mandy Li and Anne Wu. "A Comparative Analysis
Of US And TaiwaneseFirms' Decisions To Issue Earnings Forecasts,"
International Journal of Accounting, 1991,v26(4), 264-276.
Chow, Gregory C. "Are Econometric Methods Useful For
Forecasting?," Journal of Business, 1978,v51(4), 565-568.
Chu, Ke-Young. "Short-Run Forecasting Of Commodity Prices: An
Application Of AutoregressiveMoving Average Models," International
Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 1978, v25(1), 90-111.
Clemen, Robert T. and John B. Guerard, Jr. "Econometric GNP
Forecasts: Incremental InformationRelative To Naive Extrapolation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, v5(3), 417-426.
Cooper, R. L. "An Econometric Forecasting Model Of The Financial
Sector Of U.S. Households,"Applied Economics, 1973, v5(2),
101-118.
Craine, R. and A. M. Havenner. "Forecasting Comparisons Of Four
Models Of U.S. Interest Rates,"Journal of Forecasting, 1988, v7(1),
21-30.
Cristo, Sylvester. "Forecasting At Colgate-Palmolive Company,"
Journal of Business ForecastingMethods and Systems, 1992, v11(1),
16-20.
Cromarty, William A. and Walter M. Myers. "Needed Improvements
In Application Of Models ForAgriculture Commodity Price
Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1975,
v57(2), 172-177.
Croushore, Dean. "The Survey Of Professional Forecasters," FRB
Philadelphia - Business Review,1993, v1993(6), 3-15.
Cummins, J. David and Gary L. Griepentrog. "Forecasting
Automobile Insurance Paid Claim CostsUsing Econometric And ARIMA
Models," International Journal of Forecasting, 1985,
v1(3),203-216.
Dalrymple, Douglas J. "Sales Forecasting Practices: Results From
A United States Survey,"International Journal of Forecasting, 1987,
v3(3/4), 379-392.
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