University of Waterloo Department of Economics Economics 403 … · 2013. 7. 9. · Department of Economics Economics 403 Topics in Economic Forecasting ... probability, survey methods,

University of WaterlooDepartment of Economics

Economics 403 Topics in Economic Forecasting

Dr. J.A. Brox Winter 2009Hagey Hall Rm 221

Purpose of the Course:

The course focuses on the problems of forecasting economic variables. Topics include: theimportance of economic forecasting; a survey of major forecasting methods including subjectiveprobability, survey methods, exponential smoothing, econometric models, and time series models;forecast evaluation; and methods for managing forecast systems. Applications will be drawn frommicroeconomics, macroeconomics, finance and special issues involving new product demand,population and technology forecasting.

Required Textbooks:

John E. Hanke and Dean W. Wichern, Business Forecasting, ninth edition, Prentice Hall, 2009.

Grading Scheme:

The final grade in the course will be assigned on the basis of:1) terms tests held on February 11 and March 25 40%2) short practical assignments 20%3) a "major" project or term paper due on April 22 40%

There will be no formal final examination.

Course Outline:

I IntroductionII Judgmental MethodsIII Classical Time Series MethodsIV Econometric Methods and ModelsV Advanced Time Series ModelsVI Summary: Applications and Communication of Forecasting Problems

Required Readings may be assigned on the assignment sheetsOffice Hours: 10:30-11:30 Monday, Wednesday, and FridayOther times by appointment.

I IntroductionRequired Readings:Hanke and Wichern, Business Forecasting, chapters 1-3.

1. Why Forecast?a) benefits of better forecastsb) costs of better forecasts

2. Types of Forecastsa) event outcome forecastsb) event timing forecastsc) time series forecasts

3. The Nature of Economic Fluctuationsa) measures of economic activityb) peaks and troughsc) benefits of disaggregationd) turning points and indicators

4. Theoretical Models

5. Economic Data

6. Introduction to Forecast Error Analysis

II Judgmental Methods

Required Readings:Hanke and Wichern, chapter10

1. Scenario Writing and Subjective Probability

2. Use of Survey Dataa) Intentions or anticipations forecastsb) Opinions forecastsc) value of expertise in forecasts and evaluation of current status

3. Judgmental Forecasting Methodsa) surveys and scalingb) Delphi methodsc) traditional and structured meetings

4. Use of Judgmental Adjustments with other Methods

5. Leading and Lagging Indicators

III Classical Time Series MethodsRequired Readings: Hanke, Wichern & Reitsch, chapters 4-5.

1. Decomposition of Time Series

2. Simple Averaginga) meansb) moving averagesc) exponential smoothing

3. Trend Extrapolationa) regression against timeb) simple curve fitting

4. Seasonal Adjustmenta) dummies in regressionb) moving average methods

IV Econometric Methods and ModelsRequired Readings: Hanke & Wichern, chapters 6-8.1. Introduction

a) hypothesis testingb) policy analysisc) forecastingd) sources of forecast error

2. Unconditional Forecastinga) point forecastingb) interval forecasting

3. Forecasting with Serially Correlated Errorsa) the problemb) the solution

4. Conditional Forecasting (single equation)a) point forecastsb) interval forecastsc) sensitivity analysis

5. Introduction to Simulation Modelsa) evaluating simulation modelsb) model estimationc) model behaviourd) tuning and adjusting simulation modelse) stochastic simulation

V Time Series Methods (Box-Jenkins Analysis)Required Readings: Hanke and Wichern, chapter 9.Geurts and Ibrahim, "Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with the Exponentially Smoothed

Forecasting Model: Application to Hawaii Tourists" Journal of Marketing Research, May,1975, 192-188.

Fullerton, T.M. and A.C. Nava “Short-Term Water Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico” WaterResources Research, 2004.

1. Pros and Cons of ARIMA Forecastinga) need for datab) no automatic updatingc) high costd) unstablee) it works for short run

2. Types of Time Series Processesa) random walkb) white noisec) stationaryd) moving averagee) autoregressivef) mixed ARIMA

3. Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Functions

4. Four Key Steps in Forecastinga) identificationb) estimationc) diagnostic checkingd) forecasting

VII Summary: Applications and Communication of Forecasting ProblemsRequired Readings: Hanke and Wichern, chapters 10 - 11

1. Introduction

2. Monitoring and Revising Forecastsa) forecast guidelines and controlsb) sources of forecast errorc) tracking techniquesd) revision of forecasts

3. Communicating the forecast to Managementa) what management needsb) selling the forecastc) communication, organization, and politics

4. Final Summary

Suggestions for the Final Project

The suggestions contained in this outline are meant to be a rough guide and in no way shouldbe interpreted as the only possible approach to the only available topics. I strongly urge all studentsto discuss their own project with me as soon as a preliminary outline has been developed.

The purpose of this exercise is to allow you to illustrate your ability to apply some of thetechniques covered in the course to a specific problem. Thus, you must outline the question that youwill attempt to answer, the techniques that you are using, the problems that you have encountered,and how you have attempted to solve them. The required length of the paper is an issue that I alwaystry to avoid specifying, as it will depend upon the nature of your topic and how you approach it. Thekey is that your topic must be worth doing and you must have done it. However, as a rough guide,papers generally wind up in the eight to ten typed page range.

Appropriate topics include:

1. An in-depth application of one of the techniques (simple time series, econometric, ARIMA) toproduce a forecast of an economic time series.2. A comparison of two or more forecasting methods applied to a specific economic time series.3. The construction of a small econometric model for the purpose of forecasting some aspect ofeconomic activity.4. A review of the assignments prepared for the course, with the purpose of improving the individualefforts and illustrating the comparative advantages of each method applied to your sector of theeconomy.

Again let me stress that this list is not meant to be comprehensive, but merely a guide for you to useto set up your own topic. Further guidance may be obtained by review some of the readings indicatedon the topic outlines. Also, unlike the term assignments, the final project must be an individualeffort.

Feel free to seek advice at any time.

Recent Forecasting Project Titles“A Forecast of Merchandise Imports from Mexico using ARIMA Models”“The Crime Rate in Ontario”“Forecasting the Demand for Money in Canada: Econometric and ARIMA Methodologies”“Money Demand in Germany: 1984 Q1 - 1993 Q4"“An Econometric Model of Investment in Germany”“Forecasting Teledensity”“Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling of SIMWARE Stock Price”“Forecasting the Dow Jones Industrial Average Using a Random Walk Model”“A Study on Interprovincial Migration: An Analysis of the Migration from Prince Edward Island toOntario”“Forecasting the Canadian Inflation Rate Using an Expected Inflation Series Constructed by a SimpleTime-Series”“Forecasting the Bank Rate: A Comparison of Methodologies”“Forecasting Canadian Export Growth Using Rybczynski’s Theorem”“Forecasting the Expected Rate of Return of IBM’s Shares”

“A Comparative Study of the Forecasting Ability of Company Management and Security Analysts”“Gasoline Prices: A Forecast for the Summer”“The Danger of Using Subjective Forecasts at the Government Level”Box-Jenkins ARIMA Methodology and the Canadian/US Currency Exchange Rate”“ARIMA Model for an Internet Index”“Forecasting Canadian Exports with Simple Combining Techniques”“A Forecast of Lobster Landings”“Comparing Box-Jenkins with Exponential Smoothing in the Prediction of the Canadian QuarterlyUnemployment Rate”“The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology and the Biotechnology Sector”“Forecasting Income as a Function of Physical Attractiveness”“Using Simple Time Series Models to Predict a Stanley Cup Winner”“Forecasting Ontario University Tuition Fees”“Predicting Average Gasoline Prices for the Summer of 2002"“An Evaluation of the Performance on Time-Series Forecast of Quarterly Earning per Share:Evidences From Air Transportation Industry”“Short-term Forecast of the Number of International Tourists Entering or Returning to Canada”“Forecasting Interest Rates in Egypt: Comparison of an Econometric Model and Box-JenkinsTechnique”“Average Weekly Earning of Child Daycare Hourly Employees in Ontario”“Forecasting the GDP Growth Rate in Pakistan Using an Econometric Model”“Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approcah with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting Model:Application to the Dow-Jones Industrial Average”

Project Suggestions Reading List

Adams, F. Gerard and Michael K. Evans. "Econometric Forecasting With The Wharton Model,"Business Economics, 1968, v3(2), 52-55.

Albrecht, William Steve, Orace Johnson, Larry L. Lookabill and David J. H. Watson. "AComparison Of The Accuracy Of Corporate And Security Analysts' Forecasts Of Earnings:A Comment," The Accounting Review, 1977, v52(3),736-740.

Al-Osh, Mohamed. "Birth Forecasting Based On Birth Order Probabilities, With Applications ToU.S. Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1986, v81(395), 645-656.

Andersen, Leonall C. "The St. Louis Econometric Forecasting Model," Business Economics, 1971,v6(4), 29-32.

Anderson, Robert J., Jr. "A Note On Economic Base Studies And Regional Econometric ForecastingModels," Journal of Regional Science, 1970, v10(3), 325-334.

Andrikipoulos, A. A., J. A. Brox and T. Gamaletsos. "Forecasting Canadian Consumption Using TheDynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (DGLES)," Applied Economics, 1984,v16(6), 839-854.

Andrikopoulos, A. A., J. A. Brox and C. C. Paraskevopoulos. "Interfuel And Interfactor SubstitutionIn Ontario Manufacturing, 1962-82," Applied Economics, 1989, v21(12), 1667-1682.

Andrikopoulos, A., J. Brox and E. Carvalho. "Shift-Share Analysis And The Potential For PredictingRegional Growth Patterns: Some Evidence For The Region Of Quebec, Canada," Growth andChange, 1990, v21(1), 1-10.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox. "Demand Systems For Energy Consumption By The

Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Economics and Business, 1986, v38(2), 141-154.Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox. "The Urban Housing Market: A New Approach For

Estimating Demand For Housing By Dwelling Type," Journal of Urban Economics, 1984,v15(2), 230-243.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and David E. Matthews. "Interest Rate Elasticities AndCanadian Household Portfolio Allocation," Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,1992, v32(1), 103-116.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and Theodore A. Georgakopoulos. "A Short-RunAssessment Of The Effects Of VAT On Consumption Patterns: The Greek Experience,"Applied Economics, 1993, v25(5), 617-626.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Cost Structure, Inter-factor Substitution andComplementarity, and Efficiency in the Canadian Agricultural Sector", Canadian Journal ofAgricultural Economics, Vol. 40, 1992, 253-269.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Measuring the Impact of Research and Develop-ment on Technological Change: An Application of Basmann-Hayes-Slottje's Approach",Economics Letters. Vol. 36, No. 1, May 1991, 81-85.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Portfolio Allocation by Greek Banks", Spoudai,Quarterly Economic Studies. Vol. 41, No. 4, 1991, 375-389.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Canadian Inter-City Passenger Transportation: ASimultaneous Equation Approach", International Journal of Transportation Economics,October 1990.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and Emanuel Carvalho, "A Further Test of theCompetitive Effect in Shift-Share Analysis", The Review of Regional Studies, Vol. 17, No.3, summer 1987.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A., James A. Brox and Emanuel Carvalho, "Substitution in the Demand forProtein Commodities", Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 32, No. 1, March1984, 141-150.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "The Demand for Deposits and Risk Sensitivity:The Case for Greece, 1955-1980", Empirical Economics, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1986.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "Short-Run Forecasts of Consumer ExpendituresBased on the Linear Expenditure Systems", Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. XI, No. 4,December 1983, 20-33.

Andrikopoulos, Andreas A. and James A. Brox, "A Further Investigation of Linear ExpenditureSystems with Zero, First and Second Degree Autocorrelation Structures", The GreekEconomic Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, August 1982, 207-221.

Ang, James S., Jess H. Chua and Ali M. Fatemi. "A Comparison Of Econometric, Time Series, AndComposite Forecasting Methods In Predicting Accounting Variables," Journal of Economicsand Business, 1983, v35(3/4), 301-312.

Ang, James A. and Jess H. Chua. "An Application Of A Multiple-Time-Series ForecastingTechnique In Finance: The Case Of Stock Prices," Advances in Quantitative Analysis ofFinance and Accounting, 1991, Part A, v1(1), 197-224.

Angus-Leppan, Pam and Vic Fatseas. "The Forecasting Accuracy Of Trainee Accountants UsingJudgemental And Statistical Techniques," Accounting and Business Research, 1986, v16(63),179-188.

Armstrong, J. Scott. "Econometric Forecasting And The Science Court," Journal of Business, 1978,v51(4), 595-600.

Armstrong, J. Scott. "Forecasting With Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact," Journal ofBusiness, 1978, v51(4), 549-564.

Armstrong, J. Scott. "Relative Accuracy Of Judgmental And Extrapolative Methods In ForecastingAnnual Earnings," Journal of Forecasting, 1983, v2(4), 437-448.

Asebrook, Richard J. and D. R. Carmichael. "Reporting On Forecasts: A Survey Of Attitudes,"Journal of Accountancy, 1973, v136(2), 38-48.

Baghestani, Hamid. "Survey Evidence On The Muthina Rationality Of The Inflation Forecasts OfUS Consumers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1992, v54(2), 173-186.

Baker, Al, Kathryn E. Williams and Paul Sheldon Foote. "Financial Forecasting At AtlanticRichfield Company," Journal of Business Forecasting Methods and Systems, 1992, v11(3),9-11.

Ballard, Kenneth and Norman J. Glickman. "A Multiregional Econometric Forecasting System: AModel For The Delaware Valley," Journal of Regional Science, 1977, v17(2), 161-178.

Barker, T. "Forecasting The Economic Recession In The U.K. 1979-1982: A Comparison OfModel-Based Ex Ante Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 1985, v4(2), 133-152.

Bartolomei, Sonia M. and Arnold L. Sweet. "A Note On A Comparison Of Exponential SmoothingMethods For Forecasting Seasonal Series," International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, v5(1),111-116.

Basi, Bart A., Kenneth J. Carey and Richard D. Twark. "A Comparison Of The Accuracy OfCorporate And Security Analysts' Forecasts Of Earnings," The Accounting Review, 1976,v51(2), 244-254.

Basi, Bart A., Kenneth J. Carey and Richard D. Twark. "A Comparison Of The Accuracy OfCorporate And Security Analysts' Forecasts Of Earnings: A Reply," The Accounting Review,1977, v52(3), 741-745.

Bedingfield, James P. and Myron S. Lubell. "Extension Of The Attest Function To PublishedForecasts - An Opinion Survey," CPA Journal, 1974, v44(1), 40-45.

Bell, Frederick W. "An Econometric Forecasting Model For A Region," Journal of Regional Science,1967, v7(2), 109-128.

Belongia, Michael T. "Predicting Interest Rates: A Comparison Of Professional And Market-BasedForecasts," FRB St. Louis - Review, 1987, v69(3), 9-15.

Berger, Allen N. and Spencer D. Krane. "The Information Efficiency Of Econometric ModelForecasts," Review of Economics and Statistics, 1985, v67(1), 128-134.

Bianchi, Carlo and Giorgio Calzolari. "The One-Period Forecast Errors In Nonlinear EconometricModels," International Economic Review, 1980, v21(1), 201-208.

Blair, Andrew R., Robert Nachtmann, Josephine E. Olson and Thomas L. Saaty. "ForecastingForeign Exchange Rates: An Expert Judgment Approach," Socio-Economic PlanningSciences, 1987, v21(6), 363-369.

Bodkin, Ronald G., Victoria Cano-Lamy, Edward Chow, Jean Fortin, Leslie Gunaratne, John Kuiperand Christine Serrurier. "Ex Ante Forecasting With Several Econometric Models Of TheCanadian Economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1979, v1(3), 16-40.

Boero, G. "Comparing Ex-Ante Forecasts From A SEM And VAR Model: An Application To TheItalian Economy," Journal of Forecasting, 1990, v9(1), 13-24.

Boothe, Paul and Debra Glassman. "Comparing Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: AccuracyVersus Profitability," International Journal of Forecasting, 1987, v3(1), 65-80.

Bopp, Anthony E. and John A. Neri. "The Price Of Gasoline: Forecasting Comparisons," QuarterlyReview of Economics and Business, 1978, v18(4), 23-34.

Brandon, C., R. Fritz and J. Xander. "Econometric Forecasts: Evaluation And Revision," AppliedEconomics, 1983, v15(2), 187-202.

Brandt, J. A. and D. A. Bessler. "Price Forecasting And Evaluation: An Application In Agriculture,"Journal of Forecasting, 1983, v2(3), 237-248.

Brodie, Roderick J. and Cornelis A. De Kluyver. "A Comparison Of The Short Term ForecastingAccuracy Of Econometric And Naive Extrapolation Models Of Market Share," InternationalJournal of Forecasting, 1987, v3(3/4), 423-438.

Brodie, Roderick J. and Cornelis A. De Kluyver. "A Comparison Of The Short Term ForecastingAccuracy Of Econometric And Naive Extrapolation Models Of Market Share: Reply To TheCommentary," International Journal of Forecasting, 1987, v3(3/4), 461-462.

Brox, James A. "Money And Money Substitutes: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit andBanking, 1978, v10(1), 112-114.

Brox, James A. "The Yield-Liquidity Trade-Off In Canadian Portfolios," Quarterly Review ofEconomics and Business, 1983, v23(3), 70-80.

Brox, James A. and Wendy A. MacLean. "The Financial Behaviour Of Canadian PrivateCorporations And Government Enterprise: A Flow Of Funds," Bulletin of EconomicResearch, 1986, v38(1), 49-66.

Brox, James, Emanuel Carvalho and Dino Lusetti. "Input Substitution In Canadian Manufacturing:An Application Of The CES Translog Production Function," Atlantic Economic Journal,1988, v16(2), 22-46.

Brox, James A. and Wendy A. Cornwall, A Model of the Canadian Financial Flow Matrix, (withW.A. Cornwall) Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 1989, 200 pages.

Brox, James A., "Financial Capital and Productivity in Residential Construction", Journal ofHousing Economics, Vol. 3, No. 3, September 1993, 1-15.

Brox, James A., "Capital Utilization and Productivity in Canada : A Provincial Analysis", TheCanadian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1986.

Brox, James A. “Academic Research and Productivity in Canadian Manufacturing since the Formationof NAFTA”, Industry and Higher Education, April 2007.

Brox, James A. and Emanuel Carvalho, “A Demographically Augmented Shift-Share EmploymentAnalysis”, The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy”, Vol. 37 (1), (2007)

Brox, James A., R. Kumar and K. Stollery, “Estimating Willingness to Pay for Improved WaterQuality in the Presence of Item Non-Response Bias”, (with), American Journal ofAgricultural Economics, 85(2), May 2003, 415-429.

Brox, James A. “The Impact of Free Trade with the United States on the Pattern of Canadian ConsumerSpending and Savings”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, vol 14 (1), 2003, 69 -87

Brox, James A. and Christina Fader,“The set of just-in-time management strategies: an assessment of theirimpact on plant-level productivity and input-factor substitutability using variable cost functionestimates”, International Journal of Production Research, vol.40,no.12, 2002, 2705-2720.

Brox, James A., “Changing Patterns of Regional and International Trade: The Case of Canada underNAFTA”, International Trade Journal, vol. XV no. 4, 2001, 383-407.

Brox, James A. and Emanuel Carvalho, “An Application of the Regression Analogue of the Demographi-cally Enhanced Shift-Share Model.” The Review of Regional Studies. Vol. 36(2) (Fall 2006).

Brox, James A. “NAFTA, Infrastructure and the Canadian Automotive Sector”, The Journal ofEconomic Asymmetries, Vol. 3 (2), December, 2006.

Brox, James A.“The Impact of Public Services on the Pattern of Private Spending in AtlanticCanada”, Canadian Journal of Regional Science, XXVIII: 3 (Autumn, 2005), 439-460.

Brox, James A.“The Impact of Public Services on the Pattern of Private Spending in Atlantic Canada”,Canadian Journal of Regional Science, XXVIII (Autumn, 2005).

Brox James A. and Christina Fader, “An Assessment of the Impact of Public Infrastructure on CanadianManufacturing Productivity and Factor Substitutability”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, (2005),1247-1256.

Brox, James A., "A Note on Capacity Utilization, Productivity, and the Canadian Output Gap",Empirical Economics, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1984, 131-138.

Brox, James A., "The Yield-Liquidity Trade-Off in Canadian Portfolios", The Quarterly Review ofBusiness and Economics, Vol. 23, No. 3, autumn 1983, 70-80.

Brox, James A. "Migration Between the United States and Canada : A Study in Labour MarketAdjustment", International Migration, Vol. XXI, No. 1, 1983, 5-14.

Brox, James A. and Merritt Cluff, "Potential and the Real Output Gap", The Canadian StatisticalReview, January 1979, 7 pages.

Bryan, Michael F. and William T. Gavin. "Models Of Inflation Expectations Formation: AComparison Of Household And Economist Forecasts: A Comment," Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, 1986, v18(4), 539-544.

Burns, Malcolm R. and David J. Faurot. "An Econometric Forecasting Model Of Revenues FromUrban Parking Facilities," Journal of Economics and Business, 1992, v44(2), 143-150.

Calzolari, Giorgio. "A Note On The Variance Of Ex-Post Forecasts In Econometric Models,"Econometrica, 1981, v49(6), 1593-1596.

Calzolari, Giorgio. "Forecast Variance In Dynamic Simulation Of Simultaneous Equation Models,"Econometrica, 1987, v55(6), 1473-1476.

Campos, Julia. "Confidence Intervals For Linear Combinations Of Forecasts From DynamicEconometric Models," Journal of Policy Modeling, 1992, v14(4), 535-560.

Carbone, R. and J. S. Armstrong. "Evaluation Of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results Of ASurvey Of Academicans And Practitioners," Journal of Forecasting, 1982, v1(2), 215-218.

Caselles-Moncho, Antonio. "An Empirical Comparison Of Cross-Impact Models For ForecastingSales," International Journal of Forecasting, 1986, v2(3), 295-304.

Chambers, Marcus J. "Forecasting With Demand Systems: A Comparative Study," Journal ofEconometrics, 1990, v44(2), 363-376.

Chang, Semoon. "An Econometric Forecasting Model Based On Regional Economic InformationSystem Data: The Case Of Mobile Alabama," Journal of Regional Science, 1979, v19(4),437-448.

Chase, Charles W., Jr. "Business Forecasting: A Process Not An Application," Journal of BusinessForecasting Methods and Systems, 1992, v11(3), 12-13.

Cheung, Joseph K., Mandy Li and Anne Wu. "A Comparative Analysis Of US And Taiwanese Firms'Decisions To Issue Earnings Forecasts," International Journal of Accounting, 1991, v26(4),264-276.

Chow, Gregory C. "Are Econometric Methods Useful For Forecasting?," Journal of Business, 1978,v51(4), 565-568.

Chu, Ke-Young. "Short-Run Forecasting Of Commodity Prices: An Application Of AutoregressiveMoving Average Models," International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 1978, v25(1), 90-111.

Clemen, Robert T. and John B. Guerard, Jr. "Econometric GNP Forecasts: Incremental InformationRelative To Naive Extrapolation," International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, v5(3), 417-426.

Cooper, R. L. "An Econometric Forecasting Model Of The Financial Sector Of U.S. Households,"Applied Economics, 1973, v5(2), 101-118.

Craine, R. and A. M. Havenner. "Forecasting Comparisons Of Four Models Of U.S. Interest Rates,"Journal of Forecasting, 1988, v7(1), 21-30.

Cristo, Sylvester. "Forecasting At Colgate-Palmolive Company," Journal of Business ForecastingMethods and Systems, 1992, v11(1), 16-20.

Cromarty, William A. and Walter M. Myers. "Needed Improvements In Application Of Models ForAgriculture Commodity Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1975, v57(2), 172-177.

Croushore, Dean. "The Survey Of Professional Forecasters," FRB Philadelphia - Business Review,1993, v1993(6), 3-15.

Cummins, J. David and Gary L. Griepentrog. "Forecasting Automobile Insurance Paid Claim CostsUsing Econometric And ARIMA Models," International Journal of Forecasting, 1985, v1(3),203-216.

Dalrymple, Douglas J. "Sales Forecasting Practices: Results From A United States Survey,"International Journal of Forecasting, 1987, v3(3/4), 379-392.

Danos, Paul and Eugene A. Imhoff. "Auditor Review Of Financial Forecasts: An Analysis Of FactorsAffecting Reasonableness Judgments," The Accounting Review, 1982, v57(1), 39-54.

Danos, Paul, Doris L. Holt and Eugene A. Imhoff, Jr. "Bond Raters' Use Of Management FinancialForecasts: An Experiment In Expert Judgment," The Accounting Review, 1984, v59(4),547-573.

Dhrymes, Phoebus J. and Stavros C. Peristiani. "A Comparison Of The Forecasting Performance OfWEFA And ARIMA Time Series Methods," International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, v4(1),81-102.

DiCaprio, U., R. Genesio, S. Pozzi and A. Vicino. "Short Term Load Forecasting In Electric PowerSystems: A Comparison Of ARMA Models And Extended Wiener Filtering," Journal ofForecasting, 1983, v2(1), 59-76.

Dielman, T. E. "A Comparison Of Forecasts From Least Absolute Value And Least SquaresRegression: Correction," Journal of Forecasting, 1989, v8(4), 419-420.

Dino, Richard N. and Satinder Mullick. "Complex Econometric Models And Poor Forecasts - AWord From The Manufacturing Sector," Business Economics, 1979, v14(1), 28-31.

Donihue, Michael R. "Evaluating The Role Judgment Plays In Forecast Accuracy," Journal ofForecasting, 1993, v12(2), 81-92.

Dunkelberg, William C. "The Use Of Survey Date In Forecasting," Business Economics, 1986,v21(1), 44-49.

Edmundson, R. H. "Decomposition: A Strategy For Judgemental Forecasting," Journal ofForecasting, 1990, v9(4), 305-314.

Elliott, J. Walter. "Forecasting And Analysis Of Corporate Financial Performance With AnEconometric Model Of The Firm," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1972,v7(2), 1499-1526.

Engle, R. F., S. J. Brown and G. Stern. "A Comparison Of Adaptive Structural Forecasting MethodsFor Electricity Sales," Journal of Forecasting, 1988, v7(3), 149-172.

Engle, R. F., C. W. J. Granger and J. J. Hallman. "Merging Short- And Long-Run Forecasts: AnApplication Of Seasonal Cointegration To Monthly Electricity Sales Forecasting," Journal ofEconometrics, 1989, v40(1), 45-62.

Evans, M. K. "A Forecasting Model Applied To Pollution Control Costs," American Economic

Review, 1973, v63(2), 244-252.Fackler, James S. and Sandra C. Krieger. "An Application Of Vector Time Series Techniques To

Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 1986, v4(1),71-80.

Fair, Ray C. and Robert J. Shiller. "Comparing Information In Forecasts From Econometric Models,"American Economic Review, 1990, v80(3), 375-389.

Fama, Eugene F. and Michael R. Gibbons. "A Comparison Of Inflation Forecasts," Journal ofMonetary Economics, 1984, v13(3), 327-348.

Feldstein, Martin S. "The Error Of Forecast In Econometric Models When The Forecast-PeriodExogenous Variables Are Stochastic," Econometrica, 1971, v39(1), 55-60.

Fess, Philip E.and Spencer J. Martin. "Company Forecasts And The Independent Auditor's InexorableInvolvement," CPA Journal, 1973, v43(10), 868-876.

Figlewski, Stephen. "Optimal Price Forecasting Using Survey Data," Review of Economics andStatistics, 1983, v65(1), 13-21.

Fischhoff, Baruch. "Judgmental Aspects Of Forecasting: Needs And Possible Trends," InternationalJournal of Forecasting, 1988, v4(3), 331-340.

Flores, B. E., D. L. Olson and C. Wolfe. "Judgmental Adjustment Of Forecasts: A Comparison OfMethods," International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, v7(4), 421-434.

Flores, Benito E. "The Utilization Of The Wilcoxon Test To Compare Forecasting Methods: ANote," International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, v5(4), 529-536.

Fomby, Thomas B. and Subarna K. Samanta. "Application Of Stein Rules To CombinationForecasting," Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 1991, v9(4), 391-408.

Fomby, Thomas B. "A Comparison Of Forecasting Accuracies Of Alternative Regional ProductionIndex Methodologies," Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 1986, v4(2), 177-186.

Freund, William C. and Edward D. Zinbarg. "Application Of Flow Of Funds To Interest-RateForecasting," Journal of Finance, 1963, v18(2), 231-248.

Geary, R. C. "Comparative Efficiency Of Maximum Likelihood And Ex Ante Reduced Form ForForecasting: Study Of A Simple Model," European Economic Review, 1969, v1(1), 122-133.

Geriner, P. T. and J. K. Ord. "Automatic Forecasting Using Explanatory Variables: A ComparativeStudy," International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, v7(2), 127-140.

Geurts,M.D. and I.B. Ibrahim, "Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with the ExponentiallySmoothed Forecasting Model", Journal of Marketing Research, 1975.

Giroux, Gary A. "A Survey Of Forecasting Techniques Used By Commercial Banks," Journal ofBank Research, 1980, v11(1), 51-53.

Glazer, R., J. H. Steckel and R. S. Winer. "Judgmental Forecasts In A Competitive Environment:Rational Vs. Adaptive Expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, 1990, v6(2),149-162.

Glickman, Norman J. "An Econometric Forecasting Model For The Philadelphia Region," Journalof Regional Science, 1971, v11(1), 15-32.

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