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RESEARCH OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING SYSTEM OF THE and long-term labor market supply and demand forecasting system, according to which the labor market development policy could be based.

Mar 15, 2020

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  • PROJECT “RESEARCHES OF THE MINISTRY OF WELFARE” OF THE

    NATIONAL PROGRAM “LABOR MARKET RESEARCHES” OF THE

    EUROPEAN UNION STRUCTURAL FUNDS

    No. VPD1/ESF/NVA/04/NP/3.1.5.1/0001/0003

    RESEARCH OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING SYSTEM

    OF THE LABOR MARKET DEMAND AND ANALYSIS OF

    IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS

    The research has been performed with a 75% financial support

    from the European Union

    University of Latvia

    Institute of Development Projects

    Riga, 2007

  • University of Latvia Research of long-term forecasting system of the labor market Institute of Development Projects demand and analysis of improvement options, 2005-2007

    UDK 331.5(474.3)

    Da 620

    Research of Long-Term Forecasting System of the Labor Market Demand and Analysis of

    Improvement Options. LR LM: Riga, 2007, XII + 176 p.

    Project manager: Ludmila Frolova

    Researchers: Inta Krūmiņa, Pēteris Rivža, Evija Kopeika, Irina Arhipova, Inguna Ieviņa (Ruža), Jekaterina Meļņikova, Kristīne Rozīte, Ilona Ozoliņa, Baiba Rivža, Grigorijs Oļevskis, Oļegs Barānovs, Ārija Konstantinova, Nataļja Berezina, Ināra Kantāne, Anda Vītiņa, Jānis Hofmanis, Ilona Tole, Elīna Ērmane, Inga Šķendere-Drēģere, Jūlija Stare, Agnese Briška, Ivars Eglājs, Ritvars Briska, Ieva Vērzemniece, Jānis Briedis, Roberts Mencis, Baiba Berovska, Laima Levanoviča, Kristaps Āboliņš, Mārtiņš Šķiņķis, Iluta Bērziņa, Sanita Vetšteina, Agnese Jacino.

    Editors: Ināra Mikažāne and Anna Šmite

    Computer composed matter: Ludis Neiders

    Cover design: Uldis Freimanis

    © LR Labklājības ministrija, 2007

    ISBN 978-9984-993-05-8

  • University of Latvia Research of long-term forecasting system of the labor market Institute of Development Projects demand and analysis of improvement options, 2005-2007

    iii

    The Group of Researchers

    The research “Research of long-term forecasting system of the labor market demand and analysis of the improvement options” of the project “Researches of the Ministry of Welfare” No. VPD1/ESF/NVA/04/NP/3.1.5.1/0001/0003 of the National program “Labor Market Researches” of the European Union structural funds was performed by the University of Latvia, under supervision of the Dr. habil. oec. Ludmila Frolova, in coordination with the research partner SIA “Institute of Development Projects”. Ludmila Frolova, the leader of the research group, is a professor at the University of Latvia, the director of the Economic bachelor and master degree study programs at the Department of Economics and Management. The most significant prior research experience of Ludmila Frolova is related to mathematic modeling and forecasting of economic and managerial processes. During the research, the University of Latvia was represented by the following researchers: Inta Krūmiņa, Pēteris Rivža, Evija Kopeika, Irina Arhipova, Inguna Ieviņa (Ruža), Jekaterina Meļņikova, Kristīne Rozīte, Ilona Ozoliņa, Baiba Rivža, Grigorijs Oļevskis, Oļegs Barānovs, Ārija Konstantinova, Nataļja Berezina, Ināra Kantāne, Anda Vītiņa, Jānis Hofmanis, Ilona Tole, Elīna Ērmane, Inga Šķendere-Drēģere, Jūlija Stare, and Agnese Briška. SIA “Attīstības projektu institūts” during the research was represented by the following researchers: Ivars Eglājs, Ritvars Briska, Ieva Vērzemniece, Jānis Briedis, Roberts Mencis, Baiba Berovska, Laima Levanoviča, Kristaps Āboliņš, Mārtiņš Šķiņķis, Iluta Bērziņa, Sanita Vetšteina, and Agnese Jacino. Within framework of the research, an employer survey was performed, which was implemented by SIA “InMind” (currently – SIA “GfK Custom Research Baltic”). However the quantitative employer survey was performed by SIA “Latvijas Fakti”.

  • University of Latvia Research of long-term forecasting system of the labor market Institute of Development Projects demand and analysis of improvement options, 2005-2007

    iv

    Summary

    Currently in the Republic of Latvia there is no one uniform and coordinated medium term and long-term labor market supply and demand forecasting system, according to which the labor market development policy could be based. Within the framework of the given research, the necessary statistical information was acknowledged for establishing the labor market supply and demand, as well as analytical and forecasting methods for ensuring conformability of the labor market supply to the demand were elaborated. The researchers elaborated and approbated the statistical models and innovative dynamic optimization model for forecasting the supply and demand and for simulator modeling thereof. Information technology solution and implementation plan of improvements to the institutional system, which is necessary to be implemented for practical application of the forecasting models, was elaborated during the research. Implementation of the obtained results will form an option to use the state budgetary resources more purposefully (for instance, when planning the study positions), to implement new labor market measures and/or complete the existing measures with more justification, to describe the causes of problem origination in the labor market more exhaustively. Key words: labor force, supply and demand, modeling, optimization, imitating modeling,

    information technology solution, institutional system.

  • University of Latvia Research of long-term forecasting system of the labor market Institute of Development Projects demand and analysis of improvement options, 2005-2007

    v

    Table of Contents

    Table Index ...............................................................................................................................vi

    Figure Index .............................................................................................................................vii

    List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. viii

    Terminology Definitions............................................................................................................x

    Introduction................................................................................................................................1

    1. General Conclusions and Proposals.....................................................................................3

    2. Literature Review ................................................................................................................7 2.1. Review on Legislation and Policy Documentation........................................................7 2.2. Review on Data and Previously Performed Researches ................................................9 2.3. Development of Research Approaches........................................................................12

    3. Research Methodology ......................................................................................................17

    4. Research Results ................................................................................................................21 4.1. The Practical Application Spheres of the Labor Market Forecasting

    System to be Created ...................................................................................................21 4.2. Evaluation of the Existing Labor Market Forecasting System....................................22 4.3. Data Obtainment Model ..............................................................................................26 4.4. Data Summarization and Processing Model................................................................31 4.5. Model Construction .....................................................................................................35 4.6. Evaluation and Interpretation of the Results ...............................................................46 4.7. Plan of Improvement/Implementation of the Labor Market Forecasting System.......58 4.8. IT Solution Requirements............................................................................................66

    5. Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................................................75 5.1. Most Significant Decisions and Matters, in Consideration of which

    the Forecasting System to be Created can be Used .....................................................75 5.2. Optimum Degree of Detailed Elaboration and Sections for Establishing

    the Labor Force Supply and Demand..........................................................................76 5.3. Necessary Statistical Information for Determining the Labor Force

    Supply and Demand ....................................................................................................81 5.4. Recommended Analytical and Statistical Forecasting Methods .................................85 5.5. Causes of Nonconformance of Labor Force Supply and Demand

    and Options of Preclusion thereof ...............................................................................86 5.6. Conformance of the Labor Force Supply to the Demand in Short-Term....................90 5.7. Conformance of the Anticipated Labor Force Supply

    to the Demand in Long-Term ......................................................................................92

    6. Policy Alternatives...............................

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